tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20372724.post1877973930337601839..comments2023-09-01T09:38:54.262-04:00Comments on Dumb Looks Still Free: Russia, Georgia, Iran, Ukraine all get connectedA Jacksonianhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07607888697879327120noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20372724.post-40911314057836375312008-08-12T16:34:00.000-04:002008-08-12T16:34:00.000-04:00Yup!Amazing that Georgia can get attention but Mex...Yup!<BR/><BR/>Amazing that Georgia can get attention but Mexican soldiers walking into the US and holding up our Border Patrol barely gets a mention.<BR/><BR/>'Backbone and leadership'<BR/><BR/>Gone missing on a number of topics, I'm afraid.A Jacksonianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07607888697879327120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20372724.post-24649196239537437362008-08-12T16:31:00.000-04:002008-08-12T16:31:00.000-04:00Ah, there's the rub: "US backbone and leadership."...Ah, there's the rub: "US backbone and leadership."<BR/><BR/>BZBloviating Zeppelinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01359816456769157176noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20372724.post-37417506408180466782008-08-12T14:52:00.000-04:002008-08-12T14:52:00.000-04:00Not over gas/energy per se, as its mainly about oi...Not over gas/energy per se, as its mainly about oil, but Russia has a problem of the criminal oligarchs having power inside the system and Putin unable to circumvent them via normal means due to corruption. If he just wanted to do a Stalin/Mao deal, and kill all his internal enemies, Russia would be in such disarray that the word 'collapse' comes to mind. He is stuck trying to game the system to get more hard income for Russia and, if he can start to curb the oligarchs, then that is all to the good.<BR/><BR/>Georgia becomes a prime target, then, in a multi-pronged assault at home: thwart the bureaucracy, circumvent the money flow to the oligarchs, re-capture more of the income from the ex-Republics and stifle the easy flow of money to them, get in on the European oil/natural gas gravy train.<BR/><BR/>He also gets a population that speaks damned good Farsi and has old roots to Persia in the pre-18th century era, and familial ties that go cross-border. With those he can start wielding some feedback into Iran.<BR/><BR/>For the oligarchs working to the south to circumvent Russia, losing Georgia is bad news to them. For all its brutality outwards, it is a subtle move internally by Putin to start consolidating State power and removing a long-term problem to that power accumulation. If he starts going after high level Ministry personnel, then he will feel confident enough to move against them.<BR/><BR/>The US response on the freedom/liberty side is simple: do not recognize any government but the elected government of Georgia. Offer refuge to any trying to escape Russia and, if worse comes to worse, host a 'government in exile'. That will guarantee that Russia will have problems for at least a decade there and may find the consolidation of power is to come at the long term cost of money and personnel as this is patently *not* the Georgia of the 1920's that was subdued to make it part of the USSR. And if reports that Putin used the PKK to help in this are true, then all bets are off in that arena: he asked for terrorism and he can get it as the PKK is looking for things to help the Kurds. I doubt that Putin actually wants to open up a base of operations for the PKK in Georgia, but a bit of help to the PKK would get that done if a multi-way agreement to stop going after Turkey could be negotiated behind the scenes.<BR/><BR/>More immediately we should act directly with Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Ukraine to address their fears and establish an Eastern European response decidedly different from the EU. That just might kill the idea of the EU and establish that these states will now get help to defend themselves with or without NATO. The US could use some airbases and hospitals in the region to shorten up some flight-times to Germany...<BR/><BR/>Georgia might be lost now... but the pressure to bring it back and let the Russians know they are now facing a front of states that will accept missile defense systems leaves them with their woeful regular forces. Read Ralph Peters for the last few days and you will get what that means. Small, compact and capable militaries can thwart Russia with some strategic help.<BR/><BR/>That will take 5 years to do and should start as of yesterday.<BR/><BR/>And at some point a couple of the oligarchs will respond. This is a waiting game that Putin can and should lose with US backbone and leadership.A Jacksonianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07607888697879327120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20372724.post-42262416004340524502008-08-12T14:33:00.000-04:002008-08-12T14:33:00.000-04:00So in a nutshell, the attack on Georgia is over ga...So in a nutshell, the attack on Georgia is over gas/energy?<BR/><BR/>And so, another question: the proper US response would be: ____________________________.<BR/><BR/>BZBloviating Zeppelinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01359816456769157176noreply@blogger.com