07 April 2008

When does Iraq end?

This, it would seem, is a simple question with a simple answer: whenever the President declares victory. Very simple in concept, that the CinC and Head of State and Head of Government declare victory, and is in the powers of sovereignty generally held by the Office. The Legislative branch, however, in the Republic of the United States, also holds power and that is the originating authority to go to war. With that power comes the setting of the goals for the Nation to meet in the authorized conflict. Here I will take a moment to address that a 'Congressionally Authorized Use of Force' is the same thing as a 'Declaration of War' as it sends the forces of the Union against a foreign State under the auspices of the Legislative command power to engage the Nation in war. It may have a more modern, and longer, title, but the end result is Congress using one of its few direct Foreign Policy powers to initiate combat against a foreign State. The Congressional war powers come in these lines from Article I, Section 8:

To define and punish Piracies and Felonies committed on the high Seas, and Offences against the Law of Nations;

To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water;

These two sub-sections define the Congressional war powers in Private War, under the first sentence, and Public War, under the second sentence. These are two different areas of war and are given separate sentences to differentiate between these powers, although Congress may incorporate *both* into making war policy.

Now, as Law of Nations is cited in capitalized form, it gives the broader categories of these powers an incumbent responsibilities to those who have them. Republics, however, may even divide *those* up and the Republican form of governance is recognized as Sovereign, so long as all are made aware of its divisions of power. And for all things directly related to War in Law of Nations (although many other interactions with this phenomena are given elsewhere) one needs go to Book III.

The very first paragraph of Book III is as follows:

§ 1. Definition of war.(136)

WAR is that state in which we prosecute our right by force. We also understand, by this term, the act itself, or the manner of prosecuting our right by force: but it is more conformable to general usage, and more proper in a treatise on the law of war, to understand this term in the sense we have annexed to it.

The next paragraph defines Public war as that between nations or sovereigns and is in accord with the public and open use of national capability. Private war is that done by individuals and is part of the more base Law of Nature of which all are at perfect liberty and no liability of exercising those liberties via codified law. After that the right of making war is given only to the sovereign, but the right to defend oneself is universal and paramount. And as only sovereigns may declare war for a nation, and as Republics act as sovereign government, those powers may duly be divided for that government.

One of the primary misunderstandings about the conflict that started up in 2002-03 was that it was not a new conflict. The cease-fire for the previous conflict of Desert Storm/Shield went into stasis to allow for the signatory sides to carry out their cease-fire agreements and work on a final peace solution. Skipping over much of the text, although pertinent parts play a role in Iraq, we skip to Ch. XVI:

§ 233. Truce and suspension of arms.

WAR would become too cruel and destructive, were all intercourse between enemies absolutely broken off. According to the observation of Grotius,1 there still subsists a friendly intercourse in war, as Virgil2 and Tacitus3 have expressed it. The occurrences and events of war lay enemies under the necessity of entering into various conventions. As we have already treated in general of the observance of faith between enemies, it is unnecessary for us in this place to prove the obligation of faithfully acting up to those conventions made in war: it therefore only remains to explain the nature of them. Sometimes it is agreed to suspend hostilities for a certain time; and, if this convention be made but for a very short period, or only regards some particular place, it is called a cessation or suspension of arms. Such are those conventions made for the purpose of burying the dead after an assault or a battle, and for a parley, or a conference between the generals of the hostile armies. If the agreement be for a more considerable length of time, and especially if general, it is more particularly distinguished by the appellation of a truce. Many people use both expressions indiscriminately.

§ 234. Does not terminate the war.

The truce of suspension of arms does not terminate the war; it only suspends its operations.

§ 235. A truce is either partial or general.

A truce is either partial or general. By the former, hostilities are suspended only in certain places, as between a town and the army besieging it. By the latter, they are to cease generally, and in all places, between the belligerent powers. Partial truces may also admit of a distinction with respect to acts of hostility, or to persons; that is to say, the parties may agree to abstain from certain acts of hostility during a limited time, or two armies may mutually conclude a truce or suspension of arms without regard to any particular place.

Thus comes the hard fact of the cease-fire that Saddam had voluntarily signed on to. He was to repatriate Kuwaitis he had abducted, restore POWs, allow searches for the remains of POWs, and, yes, create a system to openly dismantle his WMD production capability for ALL TO SEE. A more general truce was not given and the war was suspended for Saddam to demonstrate that he could act in good faith to uphold his word on a mere cease-fire. This was not a truce nor a treaty made during war which has even higher prerequisites, but they would be built on the demonstration of openness and good faith in the cease-fire. The cease-fire and adhering to its terms were to be the fundamental building block to a truce and then, with luck, a treaty to ensure that Saddam would not, again, re-build his WMD industries and seek to threaten his neighbors.

Saddam did not do even that, however, he tried to undermine the cease-fire, fired on coalition personnel and then played games to ensure that no one would know for sure if his WMD creation capability had been dismantled. It was not just his weapons that had to go, but his accountability on creating them and demonstrating that he would not keep those systems going. He obligated himself to this accountability by the contract made with his enemies. Nor would he account for all of those he had kidnapped, nor aid in the searches for missing soldiers. He would do as many things to show that he was making 'an effort' but those efforts were not full, nor complete, nor open, nor honest and he did not want to be held accountable for what he was holding back.

What Saddam wanted to do was wear down his opponents to do what is described in the next paragraph:

§ 236. General truce for many years.

A general truce, made for many years, differs from a peace in little else than in leaving the question which was the original ground of the war still undecided. When two nations are weary of hostilities, and yet cannot agree on the point which constitutes the subject of their dispute, they generally have recourse to this kind of agreement. Thus, instead of peace, long truces only have usually been made between the Christians and the Turks, — sometimes from a false spirit of religion; at other times, because neither party were willing to acknowledge the other as lawful owners of their respective possessions.

It is a very strange thing in this world when many people wanted to give up to a *cease-fire* and capitulate during a conflict that lasted 100 hours. Yes, such great war weariness must have happened during that time, no? Unfortunately Saddam continued to snipe, fire missiles, and have other actions taken to ensure that the actual conflict was not seen as ended, and yet, in the great and grand coalition that everyone crows about was put to the simple test of saying 'enough is enough', not a single ONE OF THEM DID A DAMNED THING. The UN may have asked for Nations to restore Kuwait, but it is those nations that put it on the line to do so that created the coalition, ran the war, passed their articles of conflict and declared that such belligerency would be put to an end that took up that cause. If you want the UN to be considered in the original Gulf War, then make sure that you can find all the bureaucrats with briefcases in the front lines in the news footage... the UN could do *nothing* beyond create common agreement for that conflict. And when the UN asked for nations to help in doing that, it put ITSELF at the mercy of the Law of Nations and must abide by that as a mere treaty organization.

Thus liberating Kuwait, the theoretical 'hard part' led to the cease-fire, which should have been 'the easy part' as Saddam would realize the error of his ways. No? Didn't happen that way, and when years dragged on and Saddam was still not holding accountable to his word given to SAVE HIS PEOPLE, Congress took up its part and decided to look at another part of Law of Nations, just to make sure that all the bases were covered. They issued the *second* authorization and it would fall under this section in Ch.III :

§ 41. War undertaken to punish a nation.

When offensive war has for its object the punishment of a nation, it ought, like every other war, to be founded on right and necessity. 1. On right: — an injury must have been actually received. Injury alone being a just cause of war (§ 26), the reparation of it may be lawfully prosecuted: or if, in its nature, it be irreparable (the only case in which we are allowed to punish), we are authorized to provide for our own safety, and even for that of all other nations, by inflicting on the offender a punishment capable of correcting him, and serving as an example to others. 2. A war of this kind must have necessity to justify it; that is to say, that, to be lawful, it must be the only remaining mode to obtain a just satisfaction; which implies a reasonable security for the time to come. If that complete satisfaction, be offered, or if it may be obtained without a war, the injury is done away, and the right to security no longer authorizes us to seek vengeance for it. — (See Book II. §§ 49, 52.)

The nation in fault is bound to submit to a punishment which she has deserved, and to suffer it by way atonement: but she is not obliged to give herself up to the discretion of an incensed enemy. Therefore, when attacked she ought to make a tender of satisfaction, and ask what penalty is required; and if no explicit answer be given, or the adversary attempts to impose a disproportionate penalty, she then acquires a right to resist, and her defence becomes lawful.

On the whole, however, it is evident that the offended party alone has a right to punish independent persons. We shall not here repeat what we have said elsewhere (Book II. § 7) of the dangerous mistake, or extravagant pretensions, of those who assume a right of punishing an independent nation for faults which do not concern them — who, madly setting themselves up as defenders of the cause of God, take upon them to punish the moral depravity, or irreligion, of a people not committed to their superintendency.

Thus, when Congress authorized its use of force a *second time*, it was doing so because Saddam had not kept to his cease-fire. The United States had a grievance against Saddam and, thusly, was the aggrieved party. The interval between the authorization and actual re-start of hostilities gave Saddam more than enough time to see that this was no joke, that he did have to come clean, that he did have to be accountable and that his word, to be worth anything to anyone *ever* he would have to abide by it.

Instead he played diplomatic games.

The US and other Nations had gone to the UN for over a decade seeking to get Saddam to comply.

Small operations were conducted in response to his firing on coalition forces, and that got only more bluster.

Kuwaitis beseeched Saddam to let go those who were picked up by his secret police while in Kuwait, and he did *nothing*.

Thus the Joint Resolution of Congress to authorize the use of force is as follows and I will give some context between pieces:

Whereas in 1990 in response to Iraq's war of aggression against and
illegal occupation of Kuwait, the United States forged a coalition
of nations to liberate Kuwait and its people in order to defend the
national security of the United States and enforce United Nations
Security Council resolutions relating to Iraq;

[P1 - Note that this paragraph re-iterates the nature of the first conflict, and the unjust actions of Saddam. This was done in accord with international agreement brokered at the UN. As Saddam had agreed to this body to oversee inspections of his facilities, when it was thwarted in getting full accountability it called for action to force Saddam to comply to his word. From that the groundwork of the rest of the authorization follows.]

Whereas after the liberation of Kuwait in 1991, Iraq entered into a
United Nations sponsored cease-fire agreement pursuant to which Iraq
unequivocally agreed, among other things, to eliminate its nuclear,
biological, and chemical weapons programs and the means to deliver
and develop them, and to end its support for international
terrorism;

[P2 - This paragraphs stipulates that Saddam had signed a cease-fire. As was seen in Law of Nations, the sovereign is required to adhere to that cease-fire agreement and all of its terms. One things that those decrying Iraq forget is that Congress and the cease-fire stipulated the entire weapons programs: not just munitions, but everything from facilities to make pre-cursor material to casting to production to storage, plus all knowledge used in those things for those purposes. That includes all production systems and their attendant tool and die equipment. There are specific provisions for 'dual-use' equipment and its oversight for purely civilian manufacturing, and Saddam violated that, too. Saddam was not forced to agree or sign these things, he did so willingly at the time.]

Whereas the efforts of international weapons inspectors, United States
intelligence agencies, and Iraqi defectors led to the discovery that
Iraq had large stockpiles of chemical weapons and a large scale
biological weapons program, and that Iraq had an advanced nuclear
weapons development program that was much closer to producing a
nuclear weapon than intelligence reporting had previously indicated;

[P3 - Here Congress cites the programs that were found as cited by the Kay report, and by initial INTEL. Additionally the use of chemical weapons against the Kurds indicates a large scale chemical weapons program. The ongoing programs also include phosphorus processing facilities for triple use in chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.]

Whereas Iraq, in direct and flagrant violation of the cease-fire,
attempted to thwart the efforts of weapons inspectors to identify
and destroy Iraq's weapons of mass destruction stockpiles and
development capabilities, which finally resulted in the withdrawal
of inspectors from Iraq on October 31, 1998;

[P4 - This is a direct citation by Congress to the cease-fire violations by Saddam. When invoking this Congress is utilizing its power "and Offences against the Law of Nations" to cite such offences and then prescribe activity to remedy them. That power is beyond just Private War, and yet is limited by the scope of the other Congressional powers. In this instance the ability to formulate the laws of the Armed Forces, uphold and supply them, and identify those taking action against them puts that power into play in those areas. As the wartime cease-fire requires good faith and upholding by Saddam, his lack of same is a clear threat not only to the US, but to all Nations dealing with him.]

Whereas in Public Law 105-235 (August 14, 1998), Congress concluded that
Iraq's continuing weapons of mass destruction programs threatened
vital United States interests and international peace and security,
declared Iraq to be in ``material and unacceptable breach of its
international obligations'' and urged the President ``to take
appropriate action, in accordance with the Constitution and relevant
laws of the United States, to bring Iraq into compliance with its
international obligations'';

[P5 - Congressional citation of previously passed law in this area. Congress has urged action, previously, to force Saddam to either abide by his cease-fire. He had not done so. Further, the President was obligated to use activities under that law, including withdrawing from the cease-fire as that is a power of the President, to force the issue.]

Whereas Iraq both poses a continuing threat to the national security of
the United States and international peace and security in the
Persian Gulf region and remains in material and unacceptable breach
of its international obligations by, among other things, continuing
to possess and develop a significant chemical and biological weapons
capability, actively seeking a nuclear weapons capability, and
supporting and harboring terrorist organizations;

[P6 - Congress now cites the omnibus form of threat that Saddam poses not only to the US, but to all Nations. In seeking to promulgate Private War groups inside and outside of Iraq, along with his WMD infrastructure, Congress can no longer abide by the threat he poses. This, again, uses the Private War area and the Public War under the Law of Nations (Book III, para 34), which is a rare citation. Less rare is that of the gathering threat (para 44), and the previously cited punishment (para 41). What has become more prevalent is the citation for international stability under Law of Nations (paras 47-50) which is the Leftist view of warpower. Note that terrorism is not stated to be of any single sub-type and that all support and harboring of terrorists is a resultant cause.]

Whereas Iraq persists in violating resolution of the United Nations
Security Council by continuing to engage in brutal repression of its
civilian population thereby threatening international peace
and security in the region, by refusing to release, repatriate, or
account for non-Iraqi citizens wrongfully detained by Iraq,
including an American serviceman, and by failing to return property
wrongfully seized by Iraq from Kuwait;

[P7 - This is a more clear and fundamental statement of Law of Nations (paras 47-50) for stability by Saddam adhering to the cease-fire accords. He is also cited as breaking with the Geneva Conventions by his refusal to all non-Iraqi citizens to go free and to safety. He additionally violates the proper accounting for captured soldiers and notifying their home country of their disposition (even if it is remains that are found). Property unlawfully seized by Iraq in Kuwait (notoriously premature infant sustainment equipment and killing infants using them in Kuwait) are violations under the GC and the larger Law of Nations Book III, Ch. IV, VIII, IX and X. By committing crimes against civilians, women and children, and taking private property by no legal proceeding, Saddam Hussein has broken with all norms of Nations in warfare.]

Whereas the current Iraqi regime has demonstrated its capability and
willingness to use weapons of mass destruction against other nations
and its own people;

[P8 - Iraq, having such outlook has also demonstrated that it will do the exact, same, thing to its own people. This is the strongest citation of a 'rogue nation' with a sovereign that will aggrandize everything to himself and inflict harm against his own people. Government is established as seen in Book I, Ch. IV, para 39, solely for the safety and advantage of society. In that doing as seen in Book I, para 54, he has become an enemy to his own people. Even more deeply, Book II, Ch. I, para 4 sees a duty of nations to preserve other nations, especially when threatened by a powerful enemy that attacks or oppresses it. This is not a direct humanitarian appeal, but one of Justice between nations, and in citing the abrogations of Saddam against his own people, resulting in his becoming their enemy, Congress lays the foundation for removal of that enemy for that nation. With the prior examination that all good offices of all of humanity have been disrespected by Saddam (multiple signatories to treaties of the GC and UN; specific bodies set up by those treaties to address Saddam's misdeeds; and even the re-direction of aid to his own aggrandizement) Congress puts forward that this is not only an enemy of the US and the international order, but to all of mankind. All civilized manner of non-interference to gain compliance to Saddam's wartime agreement have been rebuked, thwarted, corrupted or failed outright. Congress, by its Private War power has just declared this Public enemy, deserving of sovereign rights, to be outlaw and international criminal under Law of Nations.]

Whereas the current Iraqi regime has demonstrated its continuing
hostility toward, and willingness to attack, the United States,
including by attempting in 1993 to assassinate former President Bush
and by firing on many thousands of occasions on United States and
Coalition Armed Forces engaged in enforcing the resolutions of the
United Nations Security Council;

[P9 - This is the supporting paragraph to P8. It is the citation of those things that are making Saddam Hussein outlaw. Every bullet fired is a violation of the cease-fire, and yet the US has held itself in abeyance. By doing so he has put at risk all standard and recognized obligations of a sovereign during war and simultaneously threatens the international order. His perfidy stoops so low as to try and assassinate a former President who is no longer in power, and is a common citizen due to all rights and protections due to all citizens lawfully engaged in the normal course of their lives.]

Whereas members of al Qaida, an organization bearing responsibility for
attacks on the United States, its citizens, and interests, including
the attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, are known to be in
Iraq;

[P10 - Saddam has made common cause with those waging Private War against the US. Al Qaeda in the form of Ansar al-Islam/Sunnah, had been invited in by Saddam in the 1990's and had been waging Private War on his behalf against his own people in the Kurdish region of Iraq. Al Qaeda had attacked the US prior to 9/11 and those attacks along with 9/11 make it an international outlaw. As with the more common case of Piracy, those who help, aid, abet and actively support those engaging in Private War are seen as helping those acts they support by those actions.]

Whereas Iraq continues to aid and harbor other international terrorist
organizations, including organizations that threaten the lives and
safety of United States citizens;

[P11 - Nor is al Qaeda the only organization that has gotten such support. Abu Nidal had sought and gotten direct aid from Iraq. Likewise Nadhmi Auchi had orchestrated finances between Iraq, al Qaeda and HAMAS. Further Saddam supported the Mujahedin-e-Kalq, which was headquartered in Iraq. Saddam has also supported al-Turabi in Sudan, which was a supporter of al Qaeda and who was with the Muslim Brotherhood. More famously he had provided checks to the families of suicide bombers who had attacked Israel, including many PLO and associated organizations.]

Whereas the attacks on the United States of September 11, 2001,
underscored the gravity of the threat posed by the acquisition of
weapons of mass destruction by international terrorist
organizations;

[P12 - Congress is citing the threat of those making Private War on the US and that these organizations can no longer be considered to be minor nor inconsequential. State support in the area of WMDs for these organizations is particularly troublesome as the cost to creation, once the technology is known and understood, yields relatively low cost weapons with a high fatality rate across large areas. Indeed, at the beginning of operations, the Ansar organizations announced it was using equipment provided by Saddam to create chemical weapons. The ricin investigation in London post-invasion also shows the knowledge of basic chemical weapons spreading into terrorist organizations. The most worrying of organizations was the Aum Shinrikyo cult in Japan, unassociated with any state support, independently creating the capability for Vx, Sarin, and the weaponization of anthrax. Similarly the numerous citations of nuclear material flowing through Russian criminal channels makes nucleotide dispersal technology via conventional explosives a troubling threat.]

Whereas Iraq's demonstrated capability and willingness to use weapons of
mass destruction, the risk that the current Iraqi regime will either
employ those weapons to launch a surprise attack against the United
States or its Armed Forces or provide them to international
terrorists who would do so, and the extreme magnitude of harm that
would result to the United States and its citizens from such an
attack, combine to justify action by the United States to defend
itself;

[P13 - The threat of Saddam smuggling WMD components and capability out of Iraq was not something that could be ignored. Not only was his Mukhabarat capable of such, but assassinations by Mukhabarat agents and sophisticated weapons components in their hands had already made that threat clear. Leading up to the war, individuals held by the Kurds for smuggling had demonstrated knowledge of Saddam supplying similar capability to the Taliban and al Qaeda. This threat could not and cannot be ignored, given state sponsorship and technical support by North Korea, Iran and Syria to terrorist organizations, and Saddam's was one of the worse of the supporters in this arena seeking influence for himself beyond ethnic affiliation, religion or ideology.]

Whereas United Nations Security Council Resolution 678 (1990) authorizes
the use of all necessary means to enforce United Nations Security
Council Resolution 660 (1990) and subsequent relevant resolutions
and to compel Iraq to cease certain activities that threaten
international peace and security, including the development of
weapons of mass destruction and refusal or obstruction of United
Nations weapons inspections in violation of United Nations Security
Council Resolution 687 (1991), repression of its civilian population
in violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 688
(1991), and threatening its neighbors or United Nations operations
in Iraq in violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution
949 (1994);

[P14 - This is the 'laundry list' of support for Saddam's perfidy. All the cease fire definitions and supporting international accords are cited.]

Whereas in the Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq
Resolution (Public Law 102-1), Congress has authorized the President
``to use United States Armed Forces pursuant to United Nations
Security Council Resolution 678 (1990) in order to achieve
implementation of Security Council Resolution 660, 661, 662, 664,
665, 666, 667, 669, 670, 674, and 677'';

[P15 - Congress cites what is to be done: use military force against Iraq in pursuit of all breaches of the cease-fire. When a nation announces they are going to remove a cease-fire, this is more textbook than one can imagine: Saddam gets clear and ample forewarning that Congress is setting aside that agreement if he will not come into accord with his given word. That is what using force to get compliance means: the cease-fire is ending. Saddam is given one last chance to demonstrate that he has any rational mental capabilities and duty to his nation left to his soul. He squandered that opportunity. So that any who cannot comprehend get it plainly: you cannot heal a cease-fire with force as that ends a cease-fire.]

Whereas in December 1991, Congress expressed its sense that it
``supports the use of all necessary means to achieve the goals of
United Nations Security Council Resolution 687 as being consistent
with the Authorization of Use of Military Force Against
Iraq Resolution (Public Law 102-1),'' that Iraq's repression of its
civilian population violates United Nations Security Council
Resolution 688 and ``constitutes a continuing threat to the peace,
security, and stability of the Persian Gulf region,'' and that
Congress, ``supports the use of all necessary means to achieve the
goals of United Nations Security Council Resolution 688'';

[P16 - Congress cites its previous support in doing this. That previous resolution had bi-partisan support and was signed into law by a Democratic Administration under President Clinton. Congress supports its sovereignty powers to keep international order and to see to the safety of the United States and when that safety and that order are threatened, Congress is to act. Again, Saddam is given a last chance by adhering to his agreements and international accords made to give him a chance to keep to his word.]

Whereas the Iraq Liberation Act of 1998 (Public Law 105-338) expressed
the sense of Congress that it should be the policy of the United
States to support efforts to remove from power the current Iraqi
regime and promote the emergence of a democratic government to
replace that regime;

[P17 - Congress had previously cited the threats of the regime. Congress has allowed that any other way to remove the threats of the regime of Saddam Hussein should be tried first. They had been tried both before PL105-338 and subsequent to it to no avail. Congress calls for the creation of a democratic government in Iraq to replace the regime and safeguard Iraqis and bring stability to the region.]

Whereas on September 12, 2002, President Bush committed the United
States to ``work with the United Nations Security Council to meet
our common challenge'' posed by Iraq and to ``work for the necessary
resolutions,'' while also making clear that ``the Security Council
resolutions will be enforced, and the just demands of peace and
security will be met, or action will be unavoidable'';

[P18 - Congress agrees that other means should be exhausted in pursuit of bringing Saddam to see reason and adhere to his word. Force will be used if he does not as he will demonstrate one last time, that he will not abide to wartime agreements.]

Whereas the United States is determined to prosecute the war on
terrorism and Iraq's ongoing support for international terrorist
groups combined with its development of weapons of mass destruction
in direct violation of its obligations under the 1991 cease-fire and
other United Nations Security Council resolutions make clear that it
is in the national security interests of the United States and in
furtherance of the war on terrorism that all relevant United Nations
Security Council resolutions be enforced, including through the use
of force if necessary;

[P19 - Congress cites that removing support for international terrorist groups from Iraq is now a legitimate concern of the US and force can be used to do that. Congress is adding this in to the bill of particulars against Saddam Hussein and is above and beyond the cease-fire problem.]

Whereas Congress has taken steps to pursue vigorously the war on
terrorism through the provision of authorities and funding requested
by the President to take the necessary actions against international
terrorists and terrorist organizations, including those nations,
organizations, or persons who planned, authorized, committed, or
aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, or
harbored such persons or organizations;

[P20 - Congress cites its funding power for the armed forces to go after terrorist organizations. There is missing from this paragraph any mention of Iraq or Saddam Hussein. It is a direct citation against al Qaeda and those who helped it in regards to 9/11 or those that harbor such organizations. This singular paragraph, by not delimiting itself to Iraq or the problems of Iraq and not citing them in any way, is a much larger scope than many want to admit. I will address this later.]

Whereas the President and Congress are determined to continue to take
all appropriate actions against international terrorists and
terrorist organizations, including those nations, organizations, or
persons who planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist
attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, or harbored such
persons or organizations;

[P21 - This, too, is like the preceding a wider scope paragraph. Note lack of Iraq citation.]

Whereas the President has authority under the Constitution to take
action in order to deter and prevent acts of international terrorism
against the United States, as Congress recognized in the joint
resolution on Authorization for Use of Military Force (Public Law
107-40); and

[P22 - Again, like the preceding, this is not dealing solely with Iraq.]

Whereas it is in the national security interests of the United States to
restore international peace and security to the Persian Gulf region:
Now, therefore, be it

Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United
States of America in Congress <<NOTE: Authorization for Use of Military
Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002. 50 USC 1541 note.>> assembled,

SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.

This joint resolution may be cited as the ``Authorization for Use of
Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002''.

SEC. 2. SUPPORT FOR UNITED STATES DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS.

The Congress of the United States supports the efforts by the
President to--
(1) strictly enforce through the United Nations Security
Council all relevant Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq
and encourages him in those efforts; and
(2) obtain prompt and decisive action by the Security
Council to ensure that Iraq abandons its strategy of delay,
evasion and noncompliance and promptly and strictly complies
with all relevant Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq.

[S2 - Congress supports these efforts on the diplomatic front, to get Iraq to comply. Congress does have a memory of all past efforts, so this is the 'last chance' notice, not a 'status quo' notice. Congress doesn't much bother with the status quo in foreign affairs, but in a Use of Force document, this is a finality to such efforts.]

SEC. 3. AUTHORIZATION FOR USE OF UNITED STATES ARMED FORCES.

(a) Authorization.--The President is authorized to use the Armed
Forces of the United States as he determines to be necessary and
appropriate in order to--
(1) defend the national security of the United States
against the continuing threat posed by Iraq; and
(2) enforce all relevant United Nations Security Council
resolutions regarding Iraq.

[S3a - Congress calls on the President to uphold his Oath and sovereignty powers. Also to give all agreements a fair chance of enforcement.]

    (b) Presidential Determination.--In connection with the exercise of
the authority granted in subsection (a) to use force the President
shall, prior to such exercise or as soon thereafter as may be feasible,
but no later than 48 hours after exercising such authority, make
available to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the
President pro tempore of the Senate his determination that--
(1) reliance by the United States on further diplomatic or
other peaceful means alone either (A) will not adequately
protect the national security of the United States against the
continuing threat posed by Iraq or (B) is not likely to lead to
enforcement of all relevant United Nations Security Council
resolutions regarding Iraq; and
(2) acting pursuant to this joint resolution is consistent
with the United States and other countries continuing to take
the necessary actions against international terrorist and
terrorist organizations, including those nations, organizations,
or persons who planned, authorized, committed or aided the
terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001.

[S3b - The President is given to make a determination on the feasibility of the use of force and the utility of continued diplomacy in this matter. Further Congress extends this to go beyond Iraq and to those that aided and abetted the 9/11 attacks in the ways listed.]

    (c) War Powers Resolution Requirements.--
(1) Specific statutory authorization.--Consistent with
section 8(a)(1) of the War Powers Resolution, the Congress
declares that this section is intended to constitute specific
statutory authorization within the meaning of section 5(b) of
the War Powers Resolution.
(2) Applicability of other requirements.--Nothing in this
joint resolution supersedes any requirement of the War Powers
Resolution.

[S3c - This is a statutory authorization under the War Powers Resolution.]

SEC. 4. REPORTS TO CONGRESS.

(a) <<NOTE: President.>> Reports.--The President shall, at least
once every 60 days, submit to the Congress a report on matters relevant
to this joint resolution, including actions taken pursuant to the
exercise of authority granted in section 3 and the status of planning
for efforts that are expected to be required after such actions are
completed, including those actions described in section 7 of the Iraq
Liberation Act of 1998 (Public Law 105-338).

(b) Single Consolidated Report.--To the extent that the submission
of any report described in subsection (a) coincides with the submission
of any other report on matters relevant to this joint resolution
otherwise required to be submitted to Congress pursuant to the reporting
requirements of the War Powers Resolution (Public Law 93-148), all such
reports may be submitted as a single consolidated report to the
Congress.
(c) Rule of Construction.--To the extent that the information
required by section 3 of the Authorization for Use of Military Force
Against Iraq Resolution (Public Law 102-1) is included in the report
required by this section, such report shall be considered as meeting the
requirements of section 3 of such resolution.

Approved October 16, 2002.

That is the CAUF (with some bureaucratic things removed at the header) and it is a wide-ranging document. While addressing Iraq in the main body of P1-19, at P20 the document takes a sudden change from Iraq and addresses a wider sphere in which Iraq is an instance: the wider effort to fight terrorism. I will set that aside for the moment to get after the Iraq portion of the document, which is quite clear in its goals.

First, Saddam is to comply with his cease-fire and all subsequent attempts to thwart it are to be recognized and all such attempts to thwart it ended. Congress painstakingly goes through the list of reports, problems and other calls by those organizations agreed-to in assuring the world that Saddam had, indeed, complied with his word. Those are all to be ended and Iraq to 'come clean'.

Second, in not expecting the first to work, force is to be used and the cease-fire ended. Congress did not give a blank check to continued diplomacy, and that long list of things done over a decade demonstrates that diplomacy has its limits lacking force. This is one of the few times that the generally spineless institution known as Congress has shown more backbone than EVERY OTHER LEADER in the coalition. You remember that listing of nations going beyond the obvious and heading down into small contingents from South Korea, Norway and Hungary from 1991? Not a single leader of a single nation in that contingent would call for the cease-fire to be ended. The time to end diplomacy was 1992-3 when Saddam started his violations, not a decade later. International institutions and the lethargy they inspire has proven to be too slow to that most spineless and sluggish of institutions known as the US Congress. Fascinating that those that place such investment in Congress don't want to address this: it is doing better at addressing international problems that relate to the US better than the UN or President Clinton did. Heaven help the United States of America... because no one else will.

Third, is the ending of support for terrorism in Iraq. This becomes a subheading of the more global Congressional view of P20-21. At the end, it is not even the then current regime's support that is to be ended, but *all* support inside Iraq for international terrorism of *all* kinds. Particularly called out is al Qaeda, but a more general rule is applied that terrorism of any stripe is not to find a safe harbor in Iraq. This is something of a shock to the Kurds, no doubt, as the PKK is within that scope, too, and the Kurds are starting to realize that dreams of a greater Kurdistan supported in Iraq are not going to be given a 'wink and a nod' by anyone. Turkey has been more than willing to make that point and it is getting across. The Sadr and Badr organizations to the south are likewise in the 'my god they mean it!' boat, and the Badr organization has tried to infiltrate its way into Iraqi security institutions, but has found COINTEL by the US and, more recently, Iraq is making that difficult to do with national organs. Support for terrorism does not begin nor end with al Qaeda and Congress is very, very clear on that. It may be the worse, but it is only the most foul of a rotten barrel of fish.

Fourth, help the Iraqi people found a democracy of some sort there. Really, anything has got to be preferable to the 'strong man du jour' of the Middle East. Using a bit of historical experience, the US failed with the Articles of Confederation (although it got the colonies through the Revolution) and its run length to dissolving from 1776-1787 points out that it can take decades to get a reliable democratic system up and running. Actually that can be a rather open-ended commitment as democracy is not an end-state of being, but a process of governing, but getting something up that has open, free, and fair elections with devolution of power to lower levels (provincial/governate, municipal, town, local) is the goal of democracy. To that end the first round of provincial elections this fall will spell the end of the beginning of this process. The first set of parliamentary elections after that will see how Iraq fares shifting from its wartime government to one more regularly secured. Like the US in the early 1780's, the initial Articles proved to have serious drawbacks and Iraqis, once they get a relatively stable process in place, will need to address that. This was expected to be the hardest thing to achieve, but may actually outpace the removal of terrorism by a few years.

Fifth, and largely glossed over, is that Iraq *still* has to ensure that WMDs are not created nor that technology and material fall into the wrong hands. This will require that Iraq get on-board with some agreements, perhaps draft some treaties, and otherwise assure the international community that the import/export controls it will put in place ensure that no trafficking in these goods to illegal parties happens. In the longer run this will require the equivalent of an FBI with some industrial legislation to create civil laws on this. A foreign information service to ensure that Iraq is not infiltrated by terrorist or rogue regime supporters will be necessary, too. Even industrialized nations, like Japan, have problems in this area as witness the 10,000 or so nuclear separators sold on the black market by Mitutoyo in the 1990's. Also a large effort to find what Saddam actually *did* with the WMD equipment and stockpiles needs to be mounted. Just as MiG jets buried in the desert can easily go undiscovered, so, too, can barrels of toxic materials, pre-filled warheads and equipment. Some went to other nations, and reports of Syrian and Russian support for the movement of equipment has been brought to light, and the Netherlands has found illegal equipment headed to the scrap heap via its disposal contracts in the region. Still, much of the larger hardware pieces that are not easily transported or destroyed, must be *somewhere*.

What has plagued the US in Iraq and Afghanistan, however, are the lack of individuals to create and sign this thing known as a 'Peace Treaty'. Unlike regular nations, Saddam and the Taliban do not see mere removal from power as a 'loss'. By not acceding to a victor, like Germany, Italy and Japan did in WWII, the US lacks a definitive end-point to these conflicts. The older route, taken in the Philippines, is to get a relatively stable government up and running and then draw down over a few years with only minimal support via treaty to newly recognized government. That recognition and normalization usually ends the actual wartime participation, although it may involve the US in much longer term problems of insurgencies. If the Taliban or Ba'athist regimes had laid down their arms and ordered all under arms for their nations to do so, we would not have these problems. They did not take the honorable way out and surrender, thus they are left with the less honorable path: being ground down to nothingness and final defeat.

Exactly how close is the US to meeting the goals set by Congress?

Well the immediate WMD capability is gone, so that is a plus. As noted above the new Iraqi government will need to put restrictions and controls on their industrial capacity to ensure that such things don't happen again. Like all parliamentary systems, that is receiving a lower priority to actually ending the insurgency, standing up reliable forces, getting a democratic system in-place and securing the Nation. The final legislation I cannot imagine taking all that long to pass and joining with other Import/Export agreements to ensure that it doesn't happen again. Because it *is* now a low priority, a five year expectation is not out of bounds of reason. It *could* happen tomorrow, but it does require an actual understanding of Iraq's needs, as a Nation, and its ability to stand-up industrial capacity. The US could help immensely, there, but I expect the ability to recognize this as a need by anyone in the Executive Branch (current or from any of the contestants) will make this impossible to even conceive of.

The removal of support for terrorism in Iraq is now going apace, with al Qaeda/Ansar al-Sunnah/Islam on the run, the Mahdi Army now in disarray, and the PKK being targeted by Turkey and that is getting some help from Iraq and the US. These elements are 'in progress' at the moment and will remain so until Iran stops supplying the JaM/Qods "Secret Cells" and Hezbollah operatives entering into Iraq. Ditto with Syria, though it has had a lesser role to play, it must also stop that. The Kurds need some strong coffee and to start cutting off the PKK and *that* may be the most difficult of the things to do... yes Iran may actually start the end of its support for insurgents in Iraq before the Kurds stop their support of the PKK. Lovely world, no? This period of the 'second half-life of COIN' should take about as long as the first, so... given we really started doing COIN in late 2005, give that another 3-5 years with the possible long-term problem of divorcing and extinguishing the PKK lingering on until *it* becomes a sticking point.

Getting a democratic system in place that is stable is usually more than one election deep. This requires organic parties with popular support and diverse views coming together to get an electoral base. With the first round of provincial elections, I expect the post-war government basis to crumble. Luckily parliamentary elections come the following year and most of what is now the present government of Iraq I expect *not* to be around after that. The Kurds represent a cohesive viewpoint and are an exception to this and will retain 'organizational memory' between the two parliaments. Already the calls by Shias to amend the Constitution to better suit the Sunnis and cultural make-up of the Nation are being heard and that marks a hard realization that the current arrangement will engender bad blood if not changed. This is a *good* thing as it represents a higher order of thinking above tribe and religion. Plus the technocratically oriented 'Iraq Awakening' movement will be heard from in the provinces, first, and then the parliamentary system. Each of those systems should get a thorough shake-out with at least two election cycles each (provincial and parliamentary) plus local election cycles (which should be an interim election cycle or coincide with either of the other two). That is, depending on how well the parliament holds up, based on the length of time for provincial elections, but call it 4 years after this year leading to 8 years to get a full three provincial cycles done. Three is a magic number and if things hold up with stable parties, any need for worries should be largely gone by then.

If you want to get out of Iraq quickly and create something better, then we are at the one-third to one-half point, depending on how reliable the elections are... democracy is a process based system, so once the process is safely established it takes unusual intervention to change it. And the Kurds really do have to give up supporting the PKK. And Iran and Syria face some harsh realities about trying to upset a relatively large and sophisticated neighbor. I expect that after the next parliamentary elections the next US President will try to get some sort of deal for final withdrawal or stand-down or equivalent of US forces there and ensure an orderly turn-over of operations. Call it security operations until 2010, then withdrawal out to 2015/16.

The way *out* is *forward* and *through* the problems so we never, ever have to go back and deal with something similar AGAIN. Worked in Germany and Japan so far, and Iraq deserves just that sort of outreach. I never want to hear any calls for the US to go *back* to Iraq to get rid of some dictator, tyrant or terrorist sponsoring government/organization again AFTER the place is stabilized and trustworthy.

Now to the other part of the CAUF - the Global War on Terror part in P20-21. This is interesting as Congress has enacted previous language before for fighting a very similar problem. I looked at this concept in a lengthy piece tracing the history of Private War as it existed before the modern era and leading right up to the 1920's in: Piracy, terrorism and the wider view. The language that Congress created to address terrorism in the CAUF sounds very, very familiar. Let us take P20 and see what it says:

Whereas the President and Congress are determined to continue to take all appropriate actions against international terrorists and terrorist organizations, including those nations, organizations, or persons who planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, or harbored such persons or organizations;

Now for the US Civil Code 18USC Chapter 81:

Sec. 1657. Corruption of seamen and confederating with pirates

Whoever attempts to corrupt any commander, master, officer, or mariner to yield up or to run away with any vessel, or any goods, wares, or merchandise, or to turn pirate or to go over to or confederate with pirates, or in any wise to trade with any pirate, knowing him to be such; or

Whoever furnishes such pirate with any ammunition, stores, or provisions of any kind; or Whoever fits out any vessel knowingly and, with a design to trade with, supply, or correspond with any pirate or robber upon the seas; or

Whoever consults, combines, confederates, or corresponds with any pirate or robber upon the seas, knowing him to be guilty of any piracy or robbery; or

Whoever, being a seaman, confines the master of any vessel--

Shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both.

Those are the Civil punishments for being brought in by civilian forces (police, citizenry, giving oneself up to authorities) and it has an astounding correlation to the CAUF in the broadness and extent of who is to be punished when aiding and abetting Pirates. To drop back to 18USC1653 we see that Piracy is, indeed, warfare:

Sec. 1653. Aliens as pirates

Whoever, being a citizen or subject of any foreign state, is found and taken on the sea making war upon the United States, or cruising against the vessels and property thereof, or of the citizens of the same, contrary to the provisions of any treaty existing between the United States and the state of which the offender is a citizen or subject, when by such treaty such acts are declared to be piracy, is a pirate, and shall be imprisoned for life.

Piracy is a form of Private war and this legacy comes from Law of Nations in Book III, the relevant paragraphs follow:

§ 2. Public war.(136)

Public war is that which takes place between nations or sovereigns, and which is carried on in the name of the public power, and by its order. This is the war we are here to consider: — private war, or that which is carried on between private individuals, belongs to the law of nature properly so called.

[..]

§ 67. It is to be distinguished from informal and unlawful war.

Legitimate and formal warfare must be carefully distinguished from those illegitimate and informal wars, or rather predatory expeditions, undertaken either without lawful authority or without apparent cause, as likewise without the usual formalities, and solely with a view to plunder. Grotius relates several instances of the latter.5 Such were the enterprises of the grandes compagnies which had assembled in France during the wars with the English, — armies of banditti, who ranged about Europe, purely for spoil and plunder: such were the cruises of the buccaneers, without commission, and in time of peace; and such in general are the depredations of pirates. To the same class belong almost all the expeditions of the Barbary corsairs: though authorized by a sovereign, they are undertaken without any apparent cause, and from no other motive than the lust of plunder. These two species of war, I say, — the lawful and the illegitimate, — are to be carefully distinguished, as the effects and the rights arising from each are very different.

§ 68. Grounds of this distinction.

In order fully to conceive the grounds of this distinction, it is necessary to recollect the nature and object of lawful war. It is only as the last remedy against obstinate injustice that the law of nature allows of war. Hence arise the rights which it gives, as we shall explain in the sequel: hence, likewise, the rules to be observed in it. Since it is equally possible that either of the parties may have right on his side, — and since, in consequence of the independence of nations, that point is not to be decided by others (§ 40), — the condition of the two enemies is the same, while the war lasts. Thus, when a nation, or a sovereign, has declared war against another sovereign on account of a difference arisen between them, their war is what among nations is called a lawful and formal war; and its effects are, by the voluntary law of nations, the same on both sides, independently of the justice of the cause, as we shall more fully show in the sequel.6 Nothing of this kind is the case in an informal and illegitimate war, which is more properly called depredation. Undertaken without any right, without even an apparent cause, it can be productive of no lawful effect, nor give any right to the author of it. A nation attacked by such sort of enemies is not under any obligation to observe towards them the rules prescribed in formal warfare. She may treat them as robbers,(146a) The inhabitants of Geneva, after defeating the famous attempt to take their city by escalade,7 caused all the prisoners whom they took from the Savoyards on that occasion to be hanged up as robbers, who had come to attack them without cause and without a declaration of war. Nor were the Genevese censured for this proceeding, which would have been detested in a formal war.

When Congress created the military codes of law, as that is their power under the Constitution, they have previously given this view in that law to this species of warfare:

Art. 82.

Men, or squads of men, who commit hostilities, whether by fighting, or inroads for destruction or plunder, or by raids of any kind, without commission, without being part and portion of the organized hostile army, and without sharing continuously in the war, but who do so with intermitting returns to their homes and avocations, or with the occasional assumption of the semblance of peaceful pursuits, divesting themselves of the character or appearance of soldiers - such men, or squads of men, are not public enemies, and, therefore, if captured, are not entitled to the privileges of prisoners of war, but shall be treated summarily as highway robbers or pirates.

That from:

INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF ARMIES OF THE UNITED STATES IN THE FIELD

Prepared by Francis Lieber, promulgated as General Orders No. 100 by President Lincoln, 24 April 1863.

That from the Avalon Project document cache of historical documents. Here we have a continuous thread of thought from Grotius through de Vattel through the Congress of Abraham Lincoln and Lincoln himself signing off on it through the updated Piracy codes all the way to the CAUF. This line of historical power for a nation rests far back in history and Congress is given the headache of defining the civil judgements and military code to keep the actions of those civilians who take up warfare ON THEIR OWN straightened out. And the Article 82 concept points out that Piracy is only one form of the broader category of depredation as seen by Congress in 1863. Note, also, the summary part of this: do the activity and the punishment during wartime is automatic.

With the CAUF the Congress is directing the President to use military means, indeed *all* means, to go after 'terrorists'. Terrorism is, however, a thing known as a *tactic* utilized by Pirates, Brigands, Robber Armies and such all the way into the 20th century when the Soviet Union staged the first military paratroop drop to counter a similar problem back in 1929. Thus Congress can lay its power for this on this historical arrangement. That said, Presidents are to go after these *on their own* as President Jefferson did against the Barbary Pirates so as to secure the Nation. The actual CinC power is more accurately defined in the Constitution, this from Art. II, Sec. 2:

The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States;

As the Commander in Chief of the Navy the President gets the Admiralty power for ensuring the regularity of commerce on the High Seas which Congress, by later statute, has moved to include the space from the core of the planet to the edge of the atmosphere that is demarcated by the High Seas. Thus when the US is confronted with any transgression against its civil commerce via those seeking to put it in harms way via the means of warfare, the President, to safeguard his duties, must respond to them. This has happened with the USS Cole bombing and the bombing of the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania who have US Marine Corps protection. By being members of the Navy and under the Admiralty power, those officers carry the representation of the President and the United States with them in their official duties of protecting and safeguarding the Nation. Thus when Private War impinges upon the US in extra-territorial assets (Embassies) or direct representatives (ships at sea connected to the open ocean), that is not only Private War, but Piracy when done by no one affiliated with any army of any Nation.

Yes each and every President since... well, when was the first real attack on a Embassy by terrorists? Before Carter, surely, but he serves as the signpost for neglect of duty in 1979. For the *second* time the CAUF is doing something that any President from Jimmy Carter through George W. Bush should have done but has not had the wisdom or guts to do, and thus the most sluggish, least able to figure out the difference between its ass and random holes in the ground has had to do it: get the President to go after these miscreants waging illegal war on the US because it is his DUTY TO DO SO. And even if Iraq gets thoroughly cleaned up and stabilized, and the US withdraws with a treaty of some sort, the two paragraphs that invoke this ancient power in P20-21 will *still* be operative.

For a few short days the US Congress coalesced a bit of cartilage around its notochord and had something that was almost spine-like.

Don't worry, it dissolved after the passage of this and things went back to 'normal'.

But those two paragraphs still stand even if Iraq and Afghanistan become the new Gardens of Eden.

Can we get a Presidential candidate who will recognize this?

Please?

05 April 2008

The madness in my method

One of the few questions I have gotten throughout my life, not just from posting articles and such at my blogs, is: how do I do this stuff?

You know, analysis?

The quick and glib answer is that I keep it all in my head.

That is, strictly, true, although there are memory aids for keeping track of some of the worst of complex situations, like that of interconnected terrorism. Beyond that, however, there are a few in-born talents that are not easily described nor replicated that help me out. So there is no way to properly teach these things in the way I use them and I can only, really, put a description to them. Trying to tell people something that is a part of just how one thinks is extremely difficult because of the underlying factors of inheritance, personality and general proclivities. Everyone has a suite of capabilities that has no exact 1:1 similarity from individual to individual, although there are certain patternings that are generally useful for everyone.

That, then is the first item: the generally useful rules to go by.

Foremost of these, for me, are some of the most glib and yet most insightful phrases that are available in the english language background. We normally call these things 'rules of thumb' and describe the extreme short-hand method of taking a look at something and seeing how to apply ourselves to it. Some examples that can be run across in my works:

  1. The Theory and Practice Conundrum - Quickly and easily stated -
    In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.
    This is the depressingly easy thing to understand that those espousing all sorts of fine ideas do not comprehend. My articles on socialism look at the conception of it as a 'end state' phenomena in which certain, pre-existing, states must be in place for socialism to come about. In theory it will come about, but in practice everyone ignores the end-state conditions and tries to do something else. If you ignore the pre-conditions, then you do not get socialism, and usually what results is some form of State authoritarianism or totalitarianism that increases human misery. Originally started in the sciences, this single concept has proven to be highly adaptable across all of human life, so that when someone espouses a great idea, then looking at the 'how do you do it' of putting it into practice makes most of those grand ideas fall flat on their faces.

  2. Complexity from simplicity - There is no real good rule of thumb on this save the old tried and true -
    If you are up to your ass in alligators, remember that you were trying to drain the swamp.
    The simplest of actions can have deep and profound consequences because one did not bother to look at all the things that one simple thing will change. Here the entire 'Global Warming' crowd has found a home thinking that they can change one simple variable, that of carbon dioxide, and all sorts of wondrous things will happen. Point out to them the geologic record in which *all* the 'greenhouse gases' were in higher concentration than today and the world did not get a 'runaway greenhouse effect' to turn the planet into Venus, and they will hem, haw and point to a hundred years worth of data while ignoring 800 million years worth of same. When the planet has a nice, steady rate of continental drift (unlike today's mad racing around the globe of continents) the world did, indeed, heat up and the continents did, indeed, settle and global temperatures rose as water flooded in over the land to form lovely, vast, shallow oceans resembling the Caribbean save over whole continents. And then the temperature stabilized. Higher than today? Yes! But those conditions tended to have a clean and open oceanic flow and large continental masses, not this patchwork of large, small and medium sized bodies of water we have today. Want to get *that* back? Remove the isthmus of Panama and in no time at all you will get much, much, much higher temps as the Atlantic and Pacific find equilibrium. Also get that damned heat sink off the south pole. This also speaks to the likelihood that mankind has an effect that is meaningful on global climate: until we do as the Pierson's Puppeteers did in Larry Niven's Known Space, or we decide to do a bit of Terraforming, that effect is miniscule. When many, many simple actions work at the same time they create complexity that is derivative of the interactions between them. Each ant in an ant colony is very simple to understand, but taken as a whole the entire colony acts in many complex ways to build structures with heating, cooling, ventilation and defenses against predators and catastrophe. If the world climate is due to multiple, interacting variables that are not well defined or understood, then putting one's finger on a single causitive that will swamp out the rest is nearly impossible.

  3. Humans are gregarious - Speaking as an introvert that is painful, but a necessary recognition of the state of my fellow man. Here we are looking at the '6 degrees of Kevin Bacon' but on a personal scale and I, personally, have boiled that down to '4 degrees of Monzer al-Kassar' who is, apparently, one of the best connected individuals on Rock 3 from the Star Sol. Take *anyone* out of the news who is in a relatively high plane of visibility, say the Salt Lake City scandal for betting, and you find that individual connected to Semion Mogilevich who knows Monzer al-Kassar. It is hard to find anyone in government, today, that is two separations from Mr. Kassar. When he and Nadhmi Auchi got connected via arms deals and such, that coalesced an entire universe of connections even tighter. The scary part is that I have problems placing *myself* at two individuals between myself and Mr. Kassar, but then I know a relatively well connected retired Marine. This is not only becoming a damned good 'rule of thumb' but may soon turn into 'The Law of Connectedness to the Underworld' for nearly everyone on the planet. So when I see a name pop up, say from the released Iraqi Foreign Ministry Archives, I now have a huge list of mobsters, gangsters, money launderers, corrupt industrialists, corrupt banks, arms merchants and narcotics traffickers to run against that individual. How do you find obscure connections between people? You *look* for them.

  4. The Law of Unintended Consequences - This has a relatively tried and true saying with it -
    No good deed goes unpunished.
    Yea, and verily, there are many unexpected consequences from actions and not all of them understood when the action is taken. There is another one that fits this category-
    It seemed like a good idea at the time.
    And this one,also -
    Be careful what you wish for, you may get it.
    And then moan and complain about how something you so fervently wanted and believed in turned out so very, very wrong. There are actually quite a few sayings in this realm, which indicates the amount of the lack of foresight humans possess and how easily a 'good idea' blinds us to possible contrary outcomes. Creating 'Social Security' started to deprive the US of its older workers *just* as WWII started up... the thing should have been rescinded. Instead the lovely wit of Congress decided to allow employers to offer 'non-monetary benefits' like 'health insurance' that were never seen as something to apply to the entire population. Thus the original problem of removing older workers from the work force is compounded by the subsidizing of health care, all during an era in which, save for the influenza pandemic, human expected lifespans were rising globally. Not the absolute limit of how long your body, in theory, could go, but the reasonable length of time less than that which was rising towards those limits. One simple action, ignoring consequences and ongoing demographics then gets compounded by *another* 'benefit' that was meant to be limited, which then gets expanded over time and is hit by the exact, same demographic influences. Yes, every 'progressive' and 'liberal' wants to crow about the supposed 'good' of these programs, while not recognizing the underlying demographics that are taking more money away from younger individuals and handing it to those that will be retired, longer and healthier while subsidized by the young. As the middle part of the post war 'baby boomer' generation gets into this, the tilt of the economy becomes horrific. And yet we hear people wanting to make the entire population poorer by increasing the latter 'good idea' until the overhead of it makes it collapse. Strangely enough, the amount of one's budget for 'actual' health care has remained steady, but the cost for the 'societal good' has increased steadily and sharply. Want to bankrupt America and make everyone sicker and live shorter lives? Make subsidized health care universal. Worked for the USSR, does wonders in hot summers in France, and is forcing folks in the UK and Canada to go elsewhere for necessary procedures because of 'rationing'. By all means lets bring that busted concept to the US and supersize it!

  5. Human stupidity - Now this category, alone, is a 'swamping effect' on the others, but helps one to come to grips with how the others get to where they are. There are so many conspiracy theories out there that it is difficult to count them all, and yet one does not need a conspiracy to make bad things happen. Or, as Napoleon was reputed as stating -
    Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
    Yes, every 'conspiracy theory' that I have seen has faltered on this point. And any single conspiracy that requires a competent part of the government needs to be thrown out immediately as it pre-supposes an impossibility to start with. If we had competent government we wouldn't have so much of it, run so poorly, with such asinine decisions made. And while everyone holds up the military as the epitome of what will make a conspiracy work, realize that this is the same organization that ran Operation Marketgarden, and dropped tens of thousands of men into the waiting arms of two SS Panzer divisions because one General didn't trust his INTEL. The entire operation was incompetently drafted, incompetently run, incompetently supplied and delivered men, most competently, into the waiting hell on earth that they were not prepared for. If you pull out 'Area 51' and UFO's, please show me the great and lovely advances that have been made that are *not* directly related to human ingenuity and science. Like the movie Men in Black I can come up with one: velcro. Unfortunately that has more to do with one man observing how nettles got stuck in clothing than anything else. Where is the anti-gravity, teleporters, warp drive, and who knows what else that is supposed to be attributed to UFO's? So when I see a series of strange events that *might* have nefarious background *if* you pre-suppose a conspiracy, I do ask if there is a series of more likely, but far lesser things going on that explain events. First it devolves upon something tried and true - human stupidity and cupidity. Second it deals with people as they are not some impossible greatly contained conspiracy that is 'behind the scenes'. Also it calls up the complexity from simplicity theme which works much better than conspiracies do.

  6. Regression towards the mean - Yet another topic I spent a post on a while back, looking at batting averages and other delightful things, with a bit of underhandedness to remind folks that data analysis can be time variable independent. This goes far beyond the 'rookie season effect' which only shows up in the much lauded players, and looks at how rookies generally under-perform to their mean and then will take some years to establish just how good they are in a professional milieu. That said the mean set up as a slope across those years has a powerful draw to it, and it is the rare, indeed extremely rare, player that can overcome the effects of age and set style to move away from that mean. Temperatures show a mean, also, but that mean depends on time scale and outside events, plus a good determination of what is actually being measured. When weather stations were set up in the 1920's-40's, suburbanization had not taken off like it has in the decades since then and the stations, themselves, have been swallowed up by that. The result is a thermal change due to the heat retention and output of modern homes, roads and equipment. If you see an increasing mean across those stations are you measuring a dependent or independent variable? And having an HVAC unit blast exhaust towards a weather station at ground level will, surely, change its readings more than general air temperature. This effect also helps to understand things like firearms training vs enemy casualty rates, so that more effective gunnery skills could be instilled into the training regimen. The very low percentage of effective shots fired against all shots fired pointed Allied commanders to the fact that most bullets didn't actually find a target. That very low percentage (and without looking it up 3% sticks in the mind) meant that even a single percentage of better fired rounds would increase troop combat effectiveness by 33%. Today that has been taken to very high levels were spent ammo for 'cover fire' is used for its deterrence effect, but the final shots for pulling down enemy targets are very, very well aimed. Likewise the mass bombing campaigns of yore from WWII are now replaced by precision guided bombs hitting within feet or inches of a target not yards or miles. The mean of target accuracy and lethality, then, has been on a sharply increasing slope from the 1940's onwards for the US armed forces, meaning that a relatively small force hits far, far above its weight class against a larger and lesser trained enemy.

  7. Centralization vs Distributionism - Two of the hardest fought memes in the 20th century started with the attack on personal liberty and freedom by looking at the State as a means of centralizing the efforts of society. The concept is posited that a centralized system can have reduced overhead and be 'more efficient' than a distributed system, which distributes the load across the entire system. The US Post Office is a Centralized system, the US Power Grid is a decentralized or distributed system. One of the greatest changes in efficiency for mail delivery came from the private sector and moving to a series of locally centralized, but interconnected, sorting and distribution systems. FedEx was one of the first, great 'proofs of concept' to do this, and moved to an integrated set of distribution centers for all of its packages. That said, each package has its routing number and is shifted by that into the system for how it is handled. An interlocking set of distributed centers with minimal information flow between them for inter-center package routing, meant it could 'absolutely, positively be there overnight'. If you packaged it early and gave it high priority... the later you package it the higher the cost. That is a 'Quality of Service' system and added the third, great paradigm between Centralized ideas of government (classically Socialist views) and Distributed ideas of government (Federalist views) with a third type that has not been tried yet: a Quality of Service accountable system. The reason that does not get done as it would treat citizens via preference schemas and afford some better services than others... that boots Socialist forms of 'equality' out the window, as well as 'classical liberal' views of the equality of man. To get an idea of what a QoS system is like, read Brave New World. Your soma gets a very *high* preference for distribution... even if you don't want it. Especially if you don't want it. Traditional forms of Federalism (pre-20th century) depend on a Distributed model in which each part has its own priority and goals, but has checks and balances between itself and all other levels. By creating semi-autonomous levels of governance with independence, within bounds, for each level, the basic needs handed to each level can be best assessed at the lowest common level for accountability to society. Socialism does not tend towards accountability, and a QoS system only for restricted domains of service that are highly prescribed, while a Federalist system holds a domain accountable for everything handed it, not just a few things to try and excel at. The Internet, itself, has a structured set of routing tables that are semi-centralized, but being a 'network of networks' the entire affair is distributed and decentralized with cached routing tables distributed throughout the system. It is amenable to QoS schema, but only for very restricted areas under IP v4, while IP v6 will have more ability to handle that. As soon as everyone agrees to play by the same book...

  8. One man, with courage, makes a majority - From what I've seen that is a quote from a biographer of Andrew Jackson about Jackson, and not from Jackson himself... although it sounds about right coming from him. This is not, however, the 'Great Man Theory' of history that would be espoused by others, like Theodore Roosevelt, but, instead, the concept of one individual who actually will do and say what is necessary when necessary to change how those around him perceive the course of human events. This is decidedly *not* the masses going to man the barricades, but is, instead, one person making a very pointed view of himself and society using pertinent background and support to say: This must change. Not all change is *progress* and when progress turns out to be wrong or counter-productive, then change to repeal such progress is required. In science the concepts of Uniformitarianism and Catastrophism have been prevalent in geology since it became a science, with the Uniformitarianists holding sway and then the Catastrophists and then back and forth between the two for decades. By the early 20th century Uniformitarianism was holding sway but had all sorts of hard problems dealing with species distribution, changes in climate and other artifacts of the geologic record. How could continents, sitting in the same place, go from polar to tropical to desert conditions in a matter of a few millions of years? And just how *did* related species get such weird geographic distribution? I looked at Alfred Wegener who proposed the concept of Continental Drift, but who's science could not make it work, and so, lacking that it was set aside for decades. Only when WWII submarine magnetic measurements were declassified did an actual process, unknown to science, appear: sea floor spreading. Suddenly the need for catastrophic events to change climate gave way to uniform methods to get such changes. Then looking at the K-T mass extinction, catastrophism would come *back* in the 1970's, until realizing that boloid impacts were actually quite common on the geologic time scale once the craters were actually looked for. That restored uniformitarianism to now encompass not only the entire solar system, but the system's movement through the galaxy and accounting for some random events like Gamma Ray Bursters. Wegener did not create a majority, but a majority came to that view via other means, so that he would be vindicated even when he was dead wrong on how it could happen.

  9. Good idea, wrong scale - In Stephen Jay Gould's The Structure of Evolutionary Theory, he brings up an excellent point that science tends not to throw away workable concepts even if the scale of the domain they were originally applied to doesn't work. It is very interesting to see that previous ideas of evolution have not been tossed away, but a memory of them retained and put to work in the field of genetics to look at how biological entities shift and change genetic material due to macro circumstances. Concepts that Huxley proposed for species and how they gained traits turned out to be inoperable at the species level, but has been re-utilized at the genetic level to see how shifting in genetic material changes the ability of that material to promulgate itself over time. In many ways that turns evolution on its head and offers a yet to be demonstrated as working paradigm in which genes are seen as utilizing higher level macro beings to promulgate genetic material. Species, in that light, are not the resultant animals or macro-effect beings that result from those changes and the species, if anything, is that collection of genetic material and its ability to craft useful higher level effects for the continuation of its encoding. Strangely enough this offers a way to view viruses as some of the most efficient self-promulgation systems that utilize other code encapsulations for their promulgation. So a successful virus is one that passes itself on by efficient transport, takeover, replication and spread. This does not make the hypothesis *right* but offers insight into how and why we may approach the higher level effects of changes in the genome and see if there is a predominant effect going on. In the realm of banking a similar problem is being seen by those systems that are opportunistically using person-to-person banking and contacts as part of the larger system to exploit the defects in the command and control banking system. Higher level 'accountability structures' cannot cope with heavily fluid and nearly unidentifiable p2p contacts and shifts of funds in the 'white world' that allow for black market funds transfers to take place. Again the larger scale systemic concept is not one that can be invoked at the lower level, but the lower level one can be utilized to exploit the higher level system so as to promulgate the transfer of illegally garnered funds through white world transactions. Just as some viruses exploit the deficiencies in the higher level macro immune system of resultant beings so, too, does p2p money exchange systems thwart the accountability of the higher level banking system.

  10. Conservation of practice - This one is simple -
    If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
    It is interesting that two of the most conservative organizations on the planet use the principle of 'stick with it until you prove something else works' concept: military organizations and science. Both of these are evidence based organizations that require that something have capability to work and demonstration of its workings before it is implemented. That is how you got mass waves of soldiers going 'over the top' in WWI without aerial and ground reinforcement all the way into late 1917 and even into 1918. The first massed armored thrusts supported by air power had only happened a couple of times and while effective, the general push needed to be sustained by fast moving follow-on units. A tested way to fight with armor had demonstrated lacks in the hypothesis but that the hypothesis was tenable, if the supporting systems of transport and re-supply could be modernized. Between the wars there was no greater proponent of this new style of armor based warfare than B. H. Liddel-Hart and during the overrun of Rommel's North African field headquarters a copy of Hart's book on armored warfare translated into German was on Rommel's nightstand... the British general let Hart know that *he* had that exact, same book in English on *his* nightstand. Hart had refined the hypothesis into a theory giving insight into the use and deployment of post-WWI advances of technology on armored warfare and it is still taught in war colleges to this day. Those limited tactical concepts were implemented on a strategic scale, first by Germany, then by the Allies, and the shift from Blitzkrieg to the continuously mobile front changed the nature of warfare in the modern era from limited sallies by relatively slow forces to extremely fast pushes across a broad front to achieve strategic objectives. Not only was that idea useful at the tactical scale, but at the larger venue of the strategic scale, but it could not be implemented as it existed in WWI as it lacked pre-conditions to happen. WWI pointed out the problems of Napoleonic warfare, and the European powers ignored the American experience of the US Civil War in drafting training and wartime preparation. That system broke down into futility and yet getting something that *worked* took a bit of doing and a couple of decades more.

Those, then, are 10 'down and dirty' rules of thumb utilized to look at things. I apply these on a system basis, that is that any single event or artifact must be examined in context of other events or artifacts around it and see how they fit together. This is something that is not a readily apparent thing to do when dealing with single events or circumstances that appear to be part of an ongoing continuum at a lower level. In Turkey the ability to confidently date an archaeology site is hampered due to a mixing up of potter shards and apparent anachronisms of finds outside of their levels as understood in a wider context. Turkey, like many other places, has rodents and in Turkey the larger, burrowing kind can often infest sites and drag or dig stuff upwards, let things fall down burrows and, generally, make a mess of a site before on even gets there. Thus the rules for a pristine site, in which layer upon layer is set down in an orderly fashion and confident dating of a layer comes from the co-deposition of artifacts, must be set aside to a 'preponderance of artifacts' and those being hard to shift ones taking that place. In that a large scale rule (deposition) is trumped by small scale activity (rodent population over time) to thwart overall dating accuracy (as seen in similar, less disturbed sites elsewhere in the region).

Not to be outdone, hard rock geologists utilize this overall rule for areas in which generally well defined rock strata are known but particular strata composition at any given point is not known. Then the smaller rule of animal disturbing is used to examine the dug up leavings of ants to see what it is they are pulling up. If you know the general strata you can get insight into its particular composition if the disturbing influence is deep enough to reach it.

That is a compound, multi-level tool of analysis used by adding together known problematic effects in one field (archaeology) and utilizing the exact, same underlying compounding to help another field (geology). For archaeologists the ability to get labor to go through relatively loose sediment as 'field experience' is relatively cheap and easy. For a geologist you are often looking at explosives, drilling equipment and multi-million dollar investments to find out what is going on within hard rock layers. What is a nuisance to one field becomes a necessary tool in another field, due to differences in underlying circumstances.

Many of those 'rules of thumb' incorporate multiple views into them, just like the proper ratio between the size of a step to the height of the rise for stairs is also compounded from multiple views. Just like the step to riser ratio is an instance of a singular 'rule of thumb' covering the construction trade (and varying greatly from region to region and Nation to Nation) so, too, these outlooks vary in specific principle on any one item or circumstance.

Catching a bit of Wayne Rogers on the tube last night and he essentially repeated the following (Source: Fox News, Cashin' in, 29 JAN 2005) talking about the elections to be held in Iraq in 2005 allows these tools to come into play:

Terry Keenan: Wayne, Dan was our man on the scene, he was giving us an assessment of how the elections may go. What do you think about that first and oil second?

Wayne Rogers, founder of Wayne Rogers & Company: I think Jonathan is absolutely right. First of all it's not a democracy. This is a pretense in a certain sense. We use the word because it's going to make it sound good. Iraq is filled with a people who are extremely religious. They oppose each other. Even if we have a vote and it looks great to the west, that doesn't mean that the oil spigot is going to go on tomorrow morning. There is going to be sabotage. The insurgents are still going to be there. All of the things that we're seeing today are going to continue. It's a wonderful idea, and I love the idea. But it's not reality.

[..]

Terry Keenan: If Iraqis can, in large numbers, safely go to the polls, can they start to safely patrol their own oil reserves?

Dan Senor: Oh, I think it's going to take time. To Wayne's comments, this is not a pretense. That's offensive to the millions of Iraqis who are risking their lives tomorrow to go to the polls. It’s an amazing thing. There are 22 Arab countries, none of which their citizens can hold their governments accountable. Iraq will be the first. There are many Iraqis who are taking enormous risks for this. As for where the oil situation is going to go on the ground there, I think it's going to be a long time before the Iraqi oil resource capability can have any impact on Iraq or the region. The oil production infrastructure of the country is in dreadful condition, completely dilapidated after three decades of chronic under investment by Saddam.

Wayne Rogers: When I say pretense, I mean the result. I'm not saying the intent is not admirable; it’s a great intent. You can't fly in the face of 2,000 years of history. You got the Kurds and the religious part of the Shiites and you’ve got the Sunnis. They're going to battle each other. There is not one Arab nation in the world that is a democracy today. They are all kingdoms. They are all based on tribal instincts and tribal relations. I think that's crazy.

Dan Senor: Wayne, what about Turkey?

Stuart Varney: No one is suggesting that this is going to become overnight a perfect democracy like England or America.

Wayne Rogers: Well, that’s what Dan is suggesting.

[..]

Stuart Varney: Indonesia is the largest Muslim country in the world, it’s just had an election, a peaceful transfer of power. Turkey is a Muslim democracy. Afghanistan has just had its first democratic election. It is a Muslim society. What is this that Muslims can't have a democracy just because they haven't had it in the past? That's nonsense.

Wayne Rogers: Wrong, wrong. Afghanistan is not a democracy. Afghanistan is a federal relationship between those tribes there. Ahmad Karzai is the mayor of Kabul. He’s not head of the country. That's unrealistic.

Dan Senor: Muslims operate in democracies around the world. They fully participate. There is nothing about the Islamic DNA that precludes Muslims from participating in democracy. So don't count them out. And the same arguments have been used about the Russians. I remember during the Cold War, ‘the Russians aren't capable of living in Democracy, they have lived under autocratic rule for millennium.’ They have pulled it off. The same has been said of eastern Europeans and Chinese and yet in Hong Kong and Singapore and Taiwan, people of Chinese descent have been able to pull off democracies. So don't count them out so quickly.

[I will use brackets to specifically call out some of the rules of thumb, but others do apply as well, and will only do that once or twice after this entry paragraph. What follows is a typical analysis by me.]

Notice that Wayne Rogers equates democracy with results, not with process [The Theory and Practice conundrum]. That is a fallacy in thinking as democracy is not a system of expressing popular will but to get results from government [Complexity from Simplicity; Human Stupidity]. That is a well known concept which I had looked at before, but it bears repeating: democracy has many forms and variants from direct 1:1 democracy to representative democracy of various kinds, which include a wide panoply of individuals and elected bodies to help societies to self-govern [Complexity from Simplicity; Centralization vs Distributionism]. What *is* the democracy that Iraqis and Afghanis do *not* have, according to Mr. Rogers? It is a *result* of ending insurgents, ending societal differences and getting oil out of the ground safely [Theory and Practice conundrum; Law of Unintended Consequences]. That *is* what he boils it down to for Iraq, and for Afghanistan he makes the astonishing claim, properly refuted by Stuart Varney and Dan Senor, that there are, indeed, Muslim majority Nations with democratic means that operate to reflect the larger society [Human gregariousness; Complexity from Simplicity]. Even more astonishing is that there are tribal and ethnic divisions in *both* Indonesia and Turkey *and* insurgents in both Nations, and yet Mr. Rogers cannot cite them as having only a pretended democracy. [Theory and Practice conundrum]

Not only is that offensive to Turkey and Indonesia, but it is deeply offensive for anyone who believes that self-government will adjust to society and ethnic problems via democracy. As Dan Senor points out the WESTERN form of democracy is a thin patina only a couple of centuries old as compared to dictatorship and Empire stretching back to the first known written records of mankind, far past 4,000 years. If anything can be said to be the 'norm' in human society it is dictatorship and authoritarian systems heading towards Empire and democracy the unproven and unestablished 'upstart' of governing systems [Regression towards the mean]. If Mr. Rogers shifted the context of his remark to say that ALL societies are doomed to ethnic problems, religious problems and the inability to have anything except a 'pretense' at democracy for a limited time, he might have some point worth looking at. And others have made that contention, so it is not even untrodden territory. [Good idea, wrong scale]

What goes beyond that is that Dan Senor brings up the cornerstone of democratic procedures: accountable government.

Mr. Rogers continues on his results based analysis for goods and supplies, but democracy is not about supply those things. It is about having accountable government that the people can change via democratic process, such as voting. Democracy, if anything, is the messiest and least results-oriented of all governing systems in that it gives the widest possible play to society and then has restricted capability to try and ensure that society is not harmed by the popular will. I can, easily enough, point to places where democracy has failed: The Balkans, Somalia, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, Colombia, Argentina, Mexico, Pakistan, Iran, and Russia is faltering as a democracy even now. Are these places unfit to have democracy because they have failed at it in the past, and in a few places it never really got attempted in a reliable and accounted way?

Even worse is that positing ethnic and religious differences that lead to violence as invalidating democracy also yields a list of countries with such problems: Spain, Italy, Turkey, Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines, Burma, Peru, Argentina, Ecuador, Colombia, Haiti, Liberia, Nigeria, Eritrea, Somalia, Yemen, Rwanda. Are these societies, then, unfit for democracy? To Mr. Rogers violence of the ethnic or religious sort is a prime invalidator of democracy, and yet democracy allows for such differences to be hashed out in a civil manner. Many of the violence problems are due to tiny minorities feeling oppressed by the larger culture, that is true, but does the turning to violence then invalidate any pre-existing attempt towards democracy?

By far the worse is the idea that a federalist view of self-government, of separate but cooperating and inter-connected governments, can NOT be a democracy. My guess is that invalidates the United States as primary example here, but also Switzerland, and a number of other governing situations in which multiple, independent but de-limited governing systems hold themselves in check and balance to provide an accountable system of governance for the entire affair. When Mr. Rogers speaks of Mr. Karzai not ruling 'more than Kabul', that could also be said of Washington, Adams, Jefferson and, indeed, going all the way up to Lincoln.[One man with courage makes a majority] Their actual extent of authority beyond the Capital and the very small federal forces existed because of civil compact and agreement amongst the States and some few of those early Presidents were viewed not only as biased towards their home State, but towards particular groups that were ethnic, religious and familial based.

Now what is the system that Mr. Rogers describes by describing the defects of 'democracy'? This is the analytical tool of examining the goal or standard and then composing them together and seeing if they have a better description. Thus, the inversion of his standards in decrying Iraq and Afghanistan for Wayne Rogers [Conservation of Practice]:

- Democracy must end all violence between all groups (stated about Iraq and insurgents)

- Democracy must ignore racial and religious views (stated about Iraq and Afghanistan on why they cannot have democracy)

- Democracy must allow no opposition to it (stated about Iraq and opposition in general)

- Democracy must be complete and not subdivided or federalized (stated about Afghanistan)

- Democracy is results based and only results matter (stated about Iraq and oil)

- Democracy must have a single ruling authority (that from the Karzai view)

- Democracy ends all questions of differences (stated about Iraq and ongoing violence and ethnic differences)

Mr. Rogers has, in negative, not described what democracy is. His expectations for democracy as described as to why Iraq and Afghanistan cannot get them describe, instead, a different system. It is not a system of personal freedom or liberty, nor is it a system of accountable government. It is a system where results matter, and obedience to government matters and there is one, sole, ruling part of the Nation and it rules all the Nation absolutely.

We have come to see such systems as Totalitarian Systems, that impose rule from above, that repress human freedom and liberty and that use mass imposed migration or simple slaughter of different populations to end all differences. He has described Communism under Stalin, Nazism under Hitler and the ruthless and maniacal regime of the mass murderer Pol Pot. Indeed, Stalin was completely 'results oriented' as was Communism and the various '5 year plans' are wholly indicative of a results oriented system of government that dictates to all levels of society 'what is to be done'. [Law of Unintended Consequences]

Thus I must fault Mr. Rogers for not applying the proper tools of analysis, the 'rules of thumb' and also giving an idea of what his ideal system that he is trying to describe in negative actually *is*. The exact same conditions he decries in Iraq and Afghanistan are going on in The Philippines, yet is *that* only having a 'pretense at democracy'? How about Colombia with FARC and ethnic problems? Turkey with the DHKP/C and Kurdish ethnic problems, do they only hold a 'pretense' to being a democracy? India has a caste system far more rigid than many clan and tribal systems in the world, and has ethnic differentiation integrated into that and has taken long decades to try and shift from those views towards ones more open of social mobility... all the while being a democracy and, indeed, now the largest, single democracy on the planet... *with* multiple Islamic and Hindu religious factions resorting to violence. Is India only having a 'pretense' of democracy?

That brings up a problem of another order when an individual casts down large swaths of humanity utilizing religious and cultural differences to do that casting down: they are practicing a form of ethnocentrism *and* bigotry towards their fellow man and the belief that all men are created EQUAL. The individuals who typically do that have views that are typified by: racism, cultural superiority, and elitism. Those are views which led directly to 'the White Man's Burden' and Imperialism, because these lesser cultures just needed someone to step in and set them right. Even worse, if one has those views and then wants to be isolated from these other cultures, the bigotry and bias raise to very high levels in which you say that your culture is so superior that it should not even *touch* these lesser cultures as they are unfit for the wisdom you impart. Isolationism, on its own, is not indicative of this and can stem from many causes, as seen in the case of Japan withdrawing from the world to prevent the overthrow of the Bushido based culture via gunpowder. That was not inherent superiority that led to such isolationism, but fear of losing the basis of society.

[End typical analysis]

Note that through the preceding analysis I deployed other tools, like Historical Comparison and Contrast, and Following Results from Previous Experiments, to look at how things shift according the the advocacy position that is taken by an individual to attempt to stand up an argument on wide-ranging affairs. To counter imprecision and ensure that I properly try to examine things, to my personal level of satisfaction (and that is a Personal Evaluation Tool different for each individual) I also try to ensure that the background tools, while unstated, are present. This makes for dense and compact reading as I am not explicitly calling out the multiple tools per sentence, which would turn already lengthy pieces into extremely long books or monographs.

Then, utilizing these tools and not telling you what they are, I also do one other fierce and quite nasty trick: I change the direction of analysis and tool suite suddenly from one venue to another while maintaining narrative thread. That is a trick that good mystery writers and SF writers use to lead a reader into one, comfortable line of thought and then demonstrate how that very comfort leads to imprecision of evaluation and results. As with the analysis above, I utilize the theme of questioning those Nations that have exactly the problems described and then shift gears, pretty suddenly, to doing the inverted analysis of what system Mr. Rogers is describing in his consistent negatives. It is meant to be a jarring experience and wake the reader up to the concept that they have been led down one particular path of reasoning *for a reason* and that if they are comfortable with it, then they must address the following, shifted analytical style, with a different sort of attention.

I have it from multiple instructors in high school and university, plus numerous readers here, that this is a headache causing experience. People do not like being suddenly shifted from their comfortable mental position or pathways and find themselves in a blast furnace. That, too, is a tool and I often abuse it to shift gears so often that the reader is, actually, left to their own devices... which is the point of those articles.

Another in the great 'Bag o' Tricks' is the lengthy quotation, which might not have been 'fair use' for profitable circumstances, but I take no advertising nor seek no cash for my use and, instead, seek to follow lines of reasoning across works. To do that I must fairly present that line of reasoning as seen in the original, even if it is a sub-textual and background one that is not the stated one of another author. The thin-skinned folks at UKIP castigated me highly for using someone else's views to convey a message that was not the overt one, but analysis of underlying factors, and the individuals involved obviously did not take time to *read the damn article I had written*. The UKIP was, and still *is*, to me a sidelight and sideshow, the underlying analytical thread outweighed another author's biased views towards them because, in my estimation, the underlying analysis was worth calling out in the larger, more biased section. I have gotten that a few times with my utilization of other authors that may, or may not, be under one cloud or another, but my analysis in each case holds: to get to the larger conceptual notion I am presenting I *must* give a fair section of another author's mindset. I do that in fairness to those authors, because I do not want to be seen as 'cherry picking' a 'quote here and a quote there'. If you ding me on another author, I will ding you right back and say 'pay attention to what is going on in the larger work'.

That is the 'Forest and Trees' rule which folks should be familiar with.

What is even worse for the reader is that I, as the writer, have so ingrained these tools as to make them part of the background of how I composite a piece. I rarely call upon them in a conscious fashion. Like Alfred Hitchcock, who would mentally step through every scene, every piece of dialogue, how every shot should look and how it would be composited and edited, the worse part of making a film was having to get the actors and actresses and actually filming it. For me the piece is already a constructed thought system and writing it down is the tedious portion... particularly ensuring that the mental side-tracks that are part of a piece are properly integrated and followed so I don't leave something out.

To sum up an already lengthy piece... wait! There is the Meta-Analysis which I used here, too! Yes the use of stepping back from an analysis to do a further analysis of the tools used to analyze things. That is highly important when explaining a tool system like the p2p banking system or trust-based p2p networks in general. If folks can't see how they work at the local scale, their larger context is lost. So drawing back from an analysis to do a Meta-Analysis to refine a tool or definition is most handy. This entire piece, including the internal analysis, is a three step Meta-Analysis system: the Analysis, the Meta-Analysis to explain tools and the Meta-Meta-Analysis to explain tools to utilize tools to do analysis.

Most handy!

Back to the summation...

... this process that I deploy is not one of artifice, which is to say artificial, but natural to my thought processes. I didn't study how to make tools to use tools to do analysis, no one taught me that. Yet, like the ingrown reactions to moving objects using the Calculus, each individual has this within them to a greater or lesser degree. It took humans thousands of years to derive the Calculus, and yet humans still threw stones, caught balls, walked around, and, basically, used the applied Calculus for every living, breathing moment of their lives. Finding out how to actually describe all that took awhile.

Luckily as I use scale free systems of thought, by and large, I can step back from that and offer up this piece as a final Meta layer on top of the existing ones. This is a conscious expression of my analysis, but is not thorough nor rigorous as that would not be possible within a delimited lifetime.... or easily in one without limits, either.

04 April 2008

Customer service follies

Ah, Dell!

The deal is that the reason, and sole reason I buy from Dell, ever, is integrated hardware.  My first Dell Dimension XPS desktop back in... when did that line start... 1996?  1995?... somewhere in there... well, I bought Dell for the integration factor, not for the lovely excess software.  And in no time at all I was quickly stripping things out, doing the DIY bit on system creation and after that left Dell behind for long years.  But when it comes to laptops/notebooks, you are getting out of the easy DIY territory.  Thus, after that initial, one-time buy, I decided to give Dell a try out...

Here is how I approached it:

Hardware - Could I get a decent deal if I stripped all the software off and started with a clean install (and yes that is difficult to do with Dell, but not impossible).

That was it, my only deciding factor was hardware integration.  Dell does that fairly well.

Thus my first Inspiron 1721 suddenly going non-bootable due to a driver update via Win Vista was disconcerting.  The second time I advanced my software replacement schedule by a number of months.  I found all the basic WinXP x64 drivers, did the nLite tango and soon had a *useful* and *stable* notebook computer.  With an OS I can stand, once I take the hedge-trimmers to it.  That system replaced my truly ancient Desknote that was slowly running out of disk space and was finding some software that had everyday use that was choking it.  Software bloat killed it, in other words.  Still trying to figure out what it can be used for, and will hang on to it for awhile yet, as it still has emergency, 'if you have nothing else left', utility to it.

Looking at the home computing situation to replace the absolutely ancient system I had thrown together for my lady way back in... 2002?  2003?... around then, based on an Asus board if memory serves... it is going through hardware death of its drives.  The floppy kicked the bucket a year or so ago and the CD just announced 'I have gone to meet my maker... which is Samsung', I started to realize I was heading into the long-term MTBF of the hard drives.  The boot drive dates back to 1999 or so, and while it still works the overall cruft is starting to get to Win2K.

At that point I was looking at two options.

First - The SuperMicro SC750-A  case is still one of the best cases I have run across, and it housed that system and my non-functioning back-up which had suffered the cosmic-ray death of one of the paired memory sticks.... until I swapped pairs and realized it was the motherboard that had suffered that death.  So I have *two* of the heaviest, roomiest cases sitting here and almost no energy to do any DIY stuff.  I could try to do it with a couple of reputable suppliers from my old days that are still going, and do the down and dirty of 'they test and I install' deal.  Possible, but that would eat my time and energy for anything else.

Second - Shift strategy, go light and modern, junk the cases and, possibly, the old CRT monitors, and do the 'notebook as desktop' deal for my lady and have a reputable screwdriver shop do me a custom back-up.

Astonishingly, the costs were the same.  Moore's Law and all that.

So a same day order: one to Dell for a second Inspiron 1721 and one to my reputable dealer from days gone by for a nice downsized system.

Amazingly, since the Inspiron was pre-made sitting in a warehouse, they arrived within a day of each other.

Thus the Inspiron, by arriving first, got the going over while I did the background software installs on the other system.  And, when it came time to update the firmware in the DVD drive of the Inspiron... Lo!  the drive doth not work as advertised. 

The courageous hero puts off contacting Dell trying to find *any* solution beyond that. 

The only thing worse than the catacombs of the MotherShip Knowledge Base is Dell Tech Support.

So on the screwdriver shop deal, I swapped out the cheapie DVD to allow them to install the OS there, and swapped in a real one pre-bought elsewhere.  Also a wireless network card.  The system runs *perfectly* as ordered.  Good work!

That shop is MWave and I have been dealing with them, off and on for various things, for some years now.  You just choose all the components, throw in the full construct, set-up, test, update for $45 and in a few days you have a well constructed system to your specs.  I went with the maker of my main system case, SilverStone Tek and their cute Evolution case.  Since my last construction for my main system was from MSI, I went with them and their K9AGM3-FIH board.  Went with a retail AMD processor but had the folks at MWave take off the mediocre heatsink/fan of retail box deals and had them put on a decent heatsink/fan combo which they recommended a better one from Thermaltake instead of the Zalman one I had chosen.

That left me, however, with contacting Dell Tech Support which I did through online chat at Dell.  And I was given the webpage to actually unseat and reseat the drive and that should do it!  They would phone me back in an hour....

Riiiight....

A day later, after trying 6 times to actually get the DVD drive to *budge* and *no* phone call, I got a bit peeved.

Today, nearly two days later, I was sending lovely messages to Tech and Customer Support.

A couple of hours later and, yes, a phone call from Dell which the nice Tech Support person had me describe the situation, which I had done on each and every message sent to them from two days ago, and finally did the DirectConnect ch-cha to let the remote Dell Tech Support person see that things were as I said they were.  And then promptly forgot that sending me a replacement drive when the current one was stuck in the system was a non-starter.  That took 3-4 times of repeating to finally get the message through.

Drive does not come out to be reseated.  Drive stuck.  Cannot replace drive with everything I have hear unless I start popping the case open and having fun with things.  Drive is fragile and did not want to bend or break it while it sat stuck in the system.

Stuff like that.

That finally got through and a nice little ship-back box will arrive in a couple of days to let it be shipped back.  Take out the power adapter, battery and hard drive because those things head towards sticky-finger land at the factory.

Thank you, to MWave!

And once Dell delivers a *working* system, and I thoroughly check it all out, then Win Vista takes a hike and I put a reliable OS on the thing.

 

Moral of the story: buy from Dell for hardware and make sure it works.

Find someone trustworthy for making *real* systems if you don't need hand-holding on every little thing that can go wrong on a computer.

 

I was thinking of putting an ITX system together... but that will await time and energy for a *small* build.

01 April 2008

GMail sending email back to the past

Seen at GMAIL 01 APR 2008, Gmail Custom Time:

Google

Gmail Custom Time

Introducing Gmail Custom TimeTM

Be on time. Every time.*



How do I use it?

Just click "Set custom time" from the Compose view. Any email you send to the past appears in the proper chronological order in your recipient's inbox. You can opt for it to show up read or unread by selecting the appropriate option.

Is there a limit to how far back I can send email?

Yes. You'll only be able to send email back until April 1, 2004, the day we launched Gmail. If we were to let you send an email from Gmail before Gmail existed, well, that would be like hanging out with your parents before you were born -- crazy talk.

How does it work?

Gmail utilizes an e-flux capacitor to resolve issues of causality (see Grandfather Paradox).

How come I only get ten?

Our researchers have concluded that allowing each person more than ten pre-dated emails per year would cause people to lose faith in the accuracy of time, thus rendering the feature useless.

Their findings:

N = Total emails sent
P = Probability that user believes the time stamp
φ = The Golden Ratio
L = Average life expectancy

Beta User Testimonials

"The entire concept of 'late' no longer exists for me. That's pretty cool. Thanks Gmail!"

Miriam S., Delivery girl

 

"I just got two tickets to Radiohead by being the 'first' to respond to a co-worker's 'first-come, first-serve' email. Someone else had already won them, but I told everyone to check their inboxes again. Everyone sort of knows I used Custom Time on this one, but I'm denying it."

Robby S., Paralegal

 

"This feature allows people to manipulate and mislead people with falsified time data. Time is a sacred truth that should never be tampered with."

Michael L., Epistemology Professor

 

"I used to be an honest person; but now I don't have to be. It's just so much easier this way. I've gained a lot of productivity by not having to think about doing the 'right' thing."

Todd J., Investment Banker

 

*The term "Every time" is used loosely here to represent the number 10.