31 July 2008

Yesterday's vision of hollow politics

The events of the past century come at us, today, seeking new home and new place in our society and world. As a society we have given eager space for things that are vicious and cruel to the human spirit and to that very society that made it welcome. Growing up as a nation the common man was given uncommon validation as the creator of society, and it is society that is good while government the punisher to keep excesses from going past the bounds of civilization. That view comes not from our modern era, but the one that allowed for humanity to consider that individuals are equal at birth, no one different before the eyes of God, each soul equal, and each one gaining a future of self-made possibilities. From that each individual must deal with their circumstances given to them by society, by culture, by genetics and by the age they are born into. The good works of an individual is the measure of their esteem and the ability to turn from harming society the measure of their virtue. None that seek to force others to do good can be esteemed, and those that seek to control society to their ends have no virtue in them. Our duty to society is to protect it so that individuals can demonstrate their abilities to the esteem of their fellow citizens and demonstrate virtue by their acts of charity and leading a good life of change by example.

When looking at those who seek to enforce the good from above, the description of how they act and how they come to seize power is aptly described to those who sought to make government law over to their own ends which are thought noble, save that they restrict liberty by pretense of virtue. One of the most haunting paragraphs of the mind set behind this view of the world comes to us from a time much like our own, where politics would seek to rule society [bolding is mine]:

We are still in the Age of Rationalism, which began in the eighteenth century and is now rapidly nearing its close. [2] We are all its creatures whether we know and wish it or not. The word is familiar enough, but who knows how much it implies? It is the arrogance of the urban intellect, which, detached from its roots and no longer guided by strong instinct, looks down with contempt on the full-blooded thinking of the past and the wisdom of ancient peasant stock. It is the period in which everyone can read and write and therefore must have his say and always "knows better." This type of mind is obsessed by concepts - the new gods of the Age - and it exercises its wits on the world as it sees it. "It is no good," it says; "we could make it better; here goes, let us set up a program for a better world!" Nothing could be easier for persons of intelligence, and no doubt seems to be felt that this world will then materialize of itself. It is given a label, "Human Progress," and now that it has a name, it is. Those who doubt it are narrow reactionaries, heretics, and, what is worse, persons devoid of democratic virtue: away with them! In this wise the fear of reality was overcome by intellectual arrogance, the darkness that comes from ignorance of all things of life, spiritual poverty, lack of reverence, and, finally, world-alien stupidity - for there is nothing stupider than the rootless urban intelligence. In English offices and clubs it used to be called common sense; in French salons, esprit; in German philosophers' studies, Pure Reason. The shallow optimism of the cultural philistine is ceasing to fear the elemental historical facts and beginning to despise them. Every "know-better" seeks to absorb them in his scheme (in which experience has no part), to make them conceptually more complete than actually they are, and to subordinate them to himself in his mind because he has not livingly experienced them, but only perceived them. This doctrinaire clinging to theory for lack of experience, or rather this lack of ability to make experience, finds literary expression in a flood of schemes for political, social, and economic systems and Utopias, and practical expression in that craze for organization which, becoming an aim in itself, produces bureaucracies that either collapse through their own hollowness or destroy the living order. Rationalism is at bottom nothing but criticism, and the critic is the reverse of a creator: he dissects and he reassembles; conception and birth are alien to him. Accordingly his work is artificial and lifeless, and when brought into contact with real life, it kills. All these systems and organizations are paper productions; they are methodical and absurd and live only on the paper they are written on. The process began at the time of Rousseau and Kant with philosophical ideologies that lost themselves in generalities; passed in the nineteenth century to scientific constructions with scientific, physical, Darwinian methods - sociology, economics, materialistic history-writing - and lost itself in the twentieth in the literary output of problem novels and party programs.

That from Oswald Spengler, Readings from: The Decline of the West and The Hour of Decision (Source: Radical Nationalism in Australia) and is a chilling, very chilling, look at the idea beyond any Rationalist 'hope & change' movement seeking to overturn the order of things and place its new order down. An urban intellect, bereft of actually living through the evils it decries and, indeed, being above them by birth, stature and income, seeks to put in place some new and fairer order without examining what the old order is and why it is having problems. A remedy or two may be good, but societal upheaval for wholesale change is lethal, as Spengler points out: it kills.

No top-down political movement has ever brought positive change, nor economic movement or religious movement. At the points along history where mankind has achieved any progress towards individual rights, it is through the restriction of the top-down paradigms and allowing freedom of thought and action amongst mankind to flourish. In conception the movement of 'hope & change' is little different from the other branches of intellectual, rationalist thought: socialism, communism, fascism. Worse is that the inability to recognize that the creation of Nations is a good, so that societies may differentiate themselves and yet still interact with each other constructively, the modern transnational paradigms aimed to create a non-National identity suffer from the ill of being top-down in view and outlook.

The enemy of high-born reasoning of academia is that thing called common sense, which Spengler picks as a pre-existing system based on experience, prudence and having a strong affinity to culture. It is that title by Thomas Paine, published in 1776 (Source: Project Gutenberg) just before the Declaration of Independence, that describes what the differences between government and society are, and it is Common Sense from its opening to its closing:

Some writers have so confounded society with government, as to leave little or no distinction between them; whereas they are not only different, but have different origins. Society is produced by our wants, and government by our wickedness; the former promotes our POSITIVELY by uniting our affections, the latter NEGATIVELY by restraining our vices. The one encourages intercourse, the other creates distinctions. The first a patron, the last a punisher.

Society in every state is a blessing, but government even in its best state is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one; for when we suffer, or are exposed to the same miseries BY A GOVERNMENT, which we might expect in a country WITHOUT GOVERNMENT, our calamity is heightened by reflecting that we furnish the means by which we suffer. Government, like dress, is the badge of lost innocence; the palaces of kings are built on the ruins of the bowers of paradise. For were the impulses of conscience clear, uniform, and irresistibly obeyed, man would need no other lawgiver; but that not being the case, he finds it necessary to surrender up a part of his property to furnish means for the protection of the rest; and this he is induced to do by the same prudence which in every other case advises him out of two evils to choose the least. WHEREFORE, security being the true design and end of government, it unanswerably follows, that whatever FORM thereof appears most likely to ensure it to us, with the least expense and greatest benefit, is preferable to all others.

Coming from the common man, yet one who is well learned and taking part of the suffering of his fellow man, Thomas Paine states most clearly that the best government is that which is the least expense giving the greatest benefits. Whenever there is talk of the actual cost of government and we turn to mere money, we forget that government doing things that society and individuals are given to do are robbing those same of liberty and freedom. Government to protect those things is necessary, yet when the tools of the punisher are put to exhorting and backing good by enforcing virtue, only true evil can result. If we decry such things as the Saudi ministry for 'The punishment of vice and promotion of virtue' then how are we to say that our own government taking over the charity of helping the poor by removing the need of the poor to better themselves to help each other is to any good end? Poverty and destitution wrack the heart and soul, yet when the idle rich decree that the poor should be made idle by hand-outs, what is the good end of that? Does it teach thrift, value, and how to commit oneself to betterment for themselves and those around them? That is the role of charity and those institutions that back it: to reach out to the members of society that need the most help via the giving and time of the common man.

When a rich man or high born one takes to an afternoon to help build a house for poor people, it is not charity but spectacle. When we have institutions that produce scholars, clergy and politicians that move from the teachings of fellowship to 'thou wilst do this' or suffer pains of ridicule, guilt, or re-education for being 'out of step', those with no understanding are claiming to speak for those who must speak for themselves and enforce that 'enlightened' view upon those of us closest to it who should know better than them based on experience. Worse still is that government, by taking over this role then attempts to remove this understanding from the public at large: in institutionalizing virtue via coercion, the actual good of the virtuous deeds springing from the fellowship of society are being targeted. That is why a 'community organizer' is a problematical figure: in attempting to do good they remove the organic creation of that community to address their own ills. 'Community organizer' is a title of an individual in a top-down organization trying to organize a community to the outlook of a restricted viewpoint of that organization. And if the community doesn't fit... force it to do so. The step from 'community organizer' to jackbooted neighborhood ward heelers seen by fascists and communists in pre-1932 Germany is that of going the step to forcing the will of the group upon the community.

That is an artificial construct coming into contact with vibrant society created from the needs of man, and it can and does kill.

When the Rationalists lose contact with reality, they morph and change into another shape, and yet the rhetoric falls along the same lines. Taken a bit further from The Readings is this:

But Romanticism too, with its lack of a sense for reality, is just as much an expression of rationalist arrogance as are Idealism and Materialism. They are all in fact closely related, and it would be difficult to discover the boundary between these two trends of thought in any political or social Romantic. In every outstanding Materialist a Romantic lies hidden. [3] Though he may scorn the cold, shallow, methodical mind of others, he has himself enough of that sort of mind to do so in the same way and with the same arrogance. Romanticism is no sign of powerful instincts, but, on the contrary, of a weak, self-detesting intellect. They are all infantile, these Romantics; men who remain children too long (or for ever), without the strength to criticize themselves, but with perpetual inhibitions arising from the obscure awareness of their own personal weakness; who are impelled by the morbid idea of reforming society, which is to them too masculine, too healthy, too sober. And to reform it, not with knives and revolvers in the Russian fashion - heaven forbid! - but by noble talk and poetic theories. Hapless indeed they are if, lacking creative power, they lack also the artistic talent to persuade at least themselves that they possess it. Yet even in their art they are feminine and weak, incapable of setting a great novel or a great tragedy on its legs, still less a pure philosophy of any force. All that appears is spineless lyric, bloodless scenarios, and fragmentary ideas, all of them displaying an innocence of and antagonism to the world which amounts to absurdity. But it was the same with the unfading "Youths" (Jünglinge), with their "old German" coats and pipes - Jahn and Arndt, even, included. Stein himself was unable to control his romantic taste for ancient constitutions sufficiently to allow him to turn his extensive practical experience to successful account in diplomacy. Oh, they were heroes, and noble, and ready to be martyrs at any moment; but they talked too much about German nature and too little about railways and customs unions, and thus became only an obstacle in the way of Germany's real future. Did they ever so much as hear the name of the great Friedrich List, who committed suicide in 1846 because no one understood and supported his far-sighted and modern political aim, the building of an economic Germany? But they all knew the names of Arminius and Thusnelda.

The great 'social movements' of the late 19th and through to this day could not exist without this Romantic undertone. If the objective is to create 'justice' then the simplistic thing to do is to theorize about it and convince others that some 'justice' in some realm will bring overall justice to everyone. Marxism, Socialism, Progressivism, Communism and Fascism would not *exist* without such Romantic thoughts. Even better they can criticize Romantics as they take up the organizational tactics to enforce their will upon others and show how they are closer to 'reality' than the Romantics are. If the goal of social welfare programs is to give a chance to the common man who has had ill luck in his life to make a better road for himself, then how come we wind up with people who cannot get off of the dole or join criminal organizations as they see no virtue being performed on their behalf? Some people do benefit from these things, but the cost to society, both in terms of moral outlook and engendering a spirit of helping the poor in individuals and in promoting same, far outweigh the mere burdened cost of giving such services from inefficient and uncaring government that sees half or more of the funds going to get such services disappear into bureaucracy.

Spengler goes on from there to look at the 'youth movement' of his era which describes as not having any real experiences in life, and yet claiming to be of a real world that consists of theories and mass-meetings to give them some feeling of purpose, while actually attempting to drown their personality in such mass meetings. That is not a triumph over individualism, but a loss of self and a determination not to be an individual for oneself, and is weakness multiplied. If those 'youths' had badges and uniforms, those of today can only be bothered to put up a Myspace page with a few downloaded graphics to idolize their purpose. As more and more people can grow up without having to take part in life, experience life or understand the tragedies of living, then any single, minor tragedy is blown out of proportion. Without the ability to put life's problems into any perspective, those of the individual grow larger and more overwhelming, to the point where being an individual ceases to be of value. The criticism of 'youth culture' then is carried to today, with Spengler pointing out that the 'youths' don't even want to interact with culture and society, but want others to do so for them. When that develops into a mass movement, it no longer looks at history as something that one is a part of and moved by, but that only happens to other people. With that, one does not see history from above, in its broad sweep, nor on the street-scale where it is lived day by day, but "from the cellar window, the street, the writers' café, the national assembly". That is the political mass movement type of today: from the parent's basement of Internet fame to the secluded store or shop where only the right people or real world people show up to the shifting of the political venue of political parties.

In those inter-War years, Spengler saw that drawing to a close, but he could in no way predict that the post-WWII era would elevate these exact, same types to office after the memory of war died again in Europe and now in America. His conceptualization of Scepticism, that ability to put theory against history and see what the outcomes of similar views in the past were, is one that held for only a brief period of time. In America this is Practicalism, or doing only that which is practical and affordable, while ensuring that society is not put in danger for the longer term. These are both drawn from the common sense view of the world, of how everyman perceives it and only accords honor to education if it is actually put to some use for oneself, one's family or to support society via doing good deeds amongst your fellow man. In this the use of the word 'tragic' is that greater sense that 'youths' do not have: understanding that the things that befall you as an individual happen within that wider scope of history and that history is not singling you out for special treatment. From that personal tragedy is not especial to you, but part of the more generalized condition of life that can befall anyone and you just happen to be an instance of it. If you think that life is singling you out, the tendency is to rail against it and seek to put a stop to that thing that befell you. While as a part of the larger history an individual accepts that this instance is just an instance and must rise from it to continue on, gaining wisdom and insight from that which came to them and then seek to impart that to their fellow man so that they can cope better with such instances.

From the excerpts presented, I can say that those on the political Left of today will not like Spengler: his views of the typified Left from his era strikes far too close to home for today's Left and its criticisms are cutting. His trenchant view of how World War I was caused by those seeking to have their Utopian paradise between 1870 and 1914 and willfully pushed off any need to examine society and culture onto following generations is highly pointed. It is also part of the same sociological phenomena:

If few can stand a long war without deterioration of soul, none can stand a long peace. This peace period from 1870 to 1914, and the memory of it, rendered all White men self-satisfied, covetous, void of understanding, and incapable of bearing misfortune. We see the result in the Utopian conceptions and challenges which today form part of every demagogue's program; challenges to the age, to the State, to parties, and in fact to "everyone else," in complete disregard of the limits of possibility or of duty, doing, and forgoing.

This all too long peace over a period of growing excitement is a fearful inheritance. Not a statesman, not a party, hardly even a political thinker is today in a safe enough position to speak the truth. They all lie, they all join in the chorus of the pampered, ignorant crowd who want their tomorrow to be like the good old days, only more so - although statesmen and economic leaders at least ought to be alive to the frightful reality. Only look at our leaders of today! Once a month their cowardly and dishonest optimism announces the "up-branch of the cycle" and "prosperity," on the strength of a mere flutter on the stock exchange caused by building-speculations: the end of unemployment, from the moment that a hundred men or so are given jobs, and as the climax the achievement of "mutual understanding between the nations," as soon as the League - that swarm of parasitic holiday-makers on the Lake of Geneva - has formulated any sort of a resolution. And in every conference and every paper the word "crisis" is bandied about in connexion with any passing disturbance of the peace. And thus we deceive ourselves, blind to the fact that we have here one of those incalculable great catastrophes that are the normal form in which history takes its major turns.

This was the manifestation of our modern politics, save that the economic numbers are only cited when going down and turned into a 'crisis' and then the 'crises' mount as only the bad numbers are reported until 'something must be done'. Pay no attention that the economy took a $1 trillion dollar loss on a single day with a terrorist attack and that was not even enough to put it into the negative territory for the year, and the economy rebounded on its previous course the very next year. Yet a 0.1% increase in inflation, unemployment or decrease in the housing market? Crisis!!

When voting for a politician who promises to 'understand our Allies and talk with our Enemies', wouldn't it be nice to have one that actually had some inkling of the true and vast scale of their own Nation, its people and economy? Remember, now, that Spengler was criticizing the society of the 1930's, and yet that exact, same criticism with very little change continues to fit the society of Western Civilization, with a very short hiccup for the war years of the 1940's and immediate post-war 1950's. Even then the 'Bohemian' views returned quickly and not only in Europe but in the US. Their discontents, as seen from Spengler' time, was absolutely predictable:

Man is a beast of prey. [5] I shall say it again and again. All the would-be moralists and social-ethics people who claim or hope to be "beyond all that" are only beasts of prey with their teeth broken, who hate others on account of the attacks which they themselves are wise enough to avoid. Only look at them. They are too weak to read a book on war, but they herd together in the street to see an accident, letting the blood and the screams play on their nerves. And if even that is too much for them, they enjoy it on the film and in the illustrated papers. If I call man a beast of prey, which do I insult: man or beast? For remember, the larger beasts of prey are noble creatures, perfect of their kind, and without the hypocrisy of human moral due to weakness.

They shout: "No more war" - but they desire class war. They are indignant when a murderer is executed for a crime of passion, but they feel a secret pleasure in hearing of the murder of a political opponent. What objection have they ever raised to the Bolshevist slaughters? There is no getting away from it: conflict is the original fact of life, is life itself, and not the most pitiful pacifist is able entirely to uproot the pleasure it gives his inmost soul. Theoretically, at least, he would like to fight and destroy all opponents of pacifism.

The further we advance into the Caesarism of the Faustian world, the more clearly will it emerge who is destined ethically to be the subject and who the object of historical events. The dreary train of world-improvers has now come to an end of its amble through these centuries, leaving behind it, as sole monument of its existence, mountains of printed paper. The Caesars will now take its place. High policy, the art of the possible, will again enter upon its eternal heritage, free from all systems and theories, itself the judge of the facts by which it rules, and gripping the world between its knees like a good horseman.

This being so, I have only to show here the historical position in which Germany and the world now stand and how this position is the inevitable outcome of the history of past centuries, and will just as inevitably pass on to certain forms and solutions. That is Destiny. We may deny it, but in so doing we deny ourselves.

And just how many of the anti-war people of *today* have ever read Strategy by B.H. Liddell Hart? AJP Taylor's The Origins of the Second World War? Or even the somewhat Leftist Gwynne Dyer's War with its appropriate transnational conclusions? We aren't talking Sun Tzu or Carl von Clausewitz, nothing *that* hard to read. If you can't even bother to read what war is, how it works, why it arises and how wars end, then how the hell can you be *against it*? And for all those wishing for the political assassination of your opponents, or their disgrace and yet do not a damned thing to clean up your supporters: just why should that be considered 'civilized'?

The Jacksonian tradition on war is much more civilized than fighting for mere statecraft or advantage: it is to counter-attack fully when attacked and give no quarter to those that do not do the same to our soldiers. There is no 'proportional response' in warfare, and agreements made during wartime are actually harder and firmer than any treaty made during peace. If you can't hold to your agreement during tough times, then why in hell should you be trusted when things are peaceful? The mistake of the utopian, over-educated section of America is that this is not a 'divide' between Americans: war is too serious to be left to politicians to fight. That basic agreement held from the Revolution through the Quasi-War through the Barbary reprisals through the War of 1812 through the Civil War through the various native wars on the continental US through the Spanish-American War and the Philippine-American War and its COIN part through World War I through World War II and only started to fray when a General was President during Korea and he sought to see if North Korea would honor its cease-fire. By Vietnam we had the first war run by politicians... it didn't work out so well. Operation Desert Storm in the First Gulf War was *also* run by politicians and it left a tyrannical genocidal dictator in power when the US quavered that the fighting just might start to get *hard*. And that left an untrustworthy foe in the field who would not keep to his word in power as an enemy. Then for over a decade the politicians couldn't figure out how to make PEACE.

I've got a problem with these lovely Leftists who hate war: they are getting us killed by not letting us END THEM.

And then to help the people of a Nation back up and on their feet so they can do this most worthy of all possible things in the world: defend themselves without our help.

By never letting a war end properly, you never get proper peace. Do you think that the Nation of Kosovo will actually make things *better* in the Balkans? It only *can* if you back freedom and liberty in all ways possible and ensure that they can defend themselves against their neighbors and covetous groups overseas looking to undermine them. Bosnia has had a harder time grabbing onto that ideal and Macedonia looks to be slowly shaking apart due to a poor political peace in the area. We cannot pat ourselves on the back for 'peacekeeping' if the peace is not made nor secured for those who live there. Which means the highly laudatory and extremely difficult goal of self-defense for those who live there so they don't need us. For all those who wanted billions of dollars and two demoralized Army Divisions in the Balkans, realize that this is just a downpayment in money and lives if you don't help *now* to get these societies to a point where they can reconcile with each other and defend themselves. Iraq has had that with the benefit of being a relatively united people, and Afghanistan is trying to work itself through a process left by a few dozen Empires that never could figure out the region and left large ethnic enclaves to feel they were autonomous, save for the fact they were bartered around like poker chips in the great card game of 'winner take a little' that is Central Asia. Hey! If the Pashtuns could outlast the British Imperial 100 year 'lets figure it out demarcation line' edict in which no one ever figured it out, then actually getting something workable in place might just take awhile. 100 years wasn't enough, obviously. Or just a start... hard to tell which is worse, really.

While I have some troubles with the views of Spengler, he at least tries to ground his outlook in history and historical review and history is not nice to anyone. No peoples on this planet have been overly superlative in their activities. At least it is something I can relate to, as are the military sciences... that harsh grounding in what mankind can do to itself and how civilization must arise to curb it. But his views of those on the political Left of his time are deadly chilling as they are continuing on to our modern era. The last World War saw far too many places succumb to the harder views of Communism and Fascism on the Left, but the 'softer' views of the Romantics always tend to shift from the airy ideal to the deadly knife as those that don't agree are forced to agree by coercion. All they want to do is make the world a 'better place'. It is when those Bohemians pick up a gun and say 'or else'... that is when you go from airy, lofty Romanticism to mass murderer at heart, as most of humanity just will not join you in 'your way'.

That is why Jacksonians prefer to counter-attack.

The killers self-identify.

Most civilized compared to what the Left offers up on a regular basis.

Too bad they can't figure it out in the first place.

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30 July 2008

The feedback loop on healthcare

The following is an outlook paper of The Jacksonian Party.

I have written about the problem of healthcare a few times in the past. The first time was to outline the problems in 'health insurance' which is not insurance at all but a form of trying to manage costs for health care. This 'problem' arose due to political interference in another part of the economy, which is the retirement system. That system was set up to remove older workers from the workforce at a given age with guaranteed payments. This was an 'economic stimulus' system to try and get the US out of the Great Depression... which it was already doing before this was passed. After the end of that era came another one that would soon require the very, same individuals who were retiring to stay and work: World War II. To do that manufacturing and service sectors were allowed to subsidize something that was only offered to executives and the rich: 'health insurance'. That subsidy remains as a non-positive economic stimulus to this day.

In regular insurance you would place a bet that you will need a service, like health care, or as a contingency for an event, say death or accidental dismemberment. That is where the insurance company is banking on you not needing to cash in your insurance by having the event and you are betting that the event will happen and that you will then get the payment. Or your estate will. 'Health insurance' is neither of those as those who are not healthy need medical services, and so they are guaranteed to get an immediate return on their health care 'insurance' and are betting that their cost of services and medicine will be larger than their payments. In large pools of mixed individuals the average can be given for that chance and payout, and the insurance company has overhead to ensure they are not being defrauded. This is a health management system in which you, the patient, claims a need for medical services and the insurance company tells you if you are allowed to get those services at its cost schedule. The two political parties seek to increase the pool of healthy, non-payers and turn them into payers into this system, either via direct law or indirect tax incentive.

What neither party addresses is the cost of overhead in the system: the cost to run the health management system on the part of the insurance companies which is bundled into the cost of the overall system, itself. Your payment to the health system run by an insurance company includes this overhead on the part of the company. Thus your final cost is burdened with the entire cost of the system: every insurance payment, every 'co-pay', every procedure that is covered and allowed is all burdened with this overhead. As the tax breaks to offer this system were only offered to employers, those individuals seeking individual insurance would pay the whole cost, while, due to the tax break, the federal government assured businesses that they could foot part of the bill at a lower cost. Your regular cost for the insurance (not co-pays) is thus not the entire bill of the cost of insurance, and yet it comes from your income and a portion of that is taxable. Thus the employer gets a tax break (the subsidy) on what it pays, and you get a minimal tax break for your side if you pay over a certain percent of your income into health care costs. If you don't you get a standard deduction. If you sought this on your own, you would pay taxes on everything.

The problem with the costs involved I examined in a piece looking at how to move away from the insurance based model. There are many ways to do this, including ending all the tax breaks for insurance so that the full, burdened cost is taxable as a service. That would lead to unaffordable insurance companies ending their offerings, and those that demonstrate good and prudent means of choosing doctors, procedures and finding ways to reduce overhead would prosper. An alternative I discuss is to see that this is really an 'assured service delivery' system and to treat it as such for given procedures, tests and other medical necessities. By creating a 'voucher system', or medical services market, individuals could purchase guaranteed services at a given, current rate. The voucher (or e-voucher) never expires and what one has done is *invest* in the system to get a guaranteed service return regardless of future cost. This removes the overhead and fraud part of the system of improper services and puts the patient in control of assuring that such services have been properly rendered. Fraud can still happen, but it becomes collusion and conspiracy, with much, much tougher sanctions against it if found.

What such a system would do is create a trade market for commodities from suppliers, so that an open-heart procedure performed at a hospital would have a higher value than one at a lesser hospital. If you hold a voucher for that service at that facility or with that medical care provider, you are not refused it by them (scheduling and emergencies excepted, of course). This also means that one can trade a number of lesser vouchers for a higher value one, so that services that you though you might need can be re-utilized for other services. This removes the 'management' part from companies and places it with you, the actual user of the services.

There is another way to move out of the current system, however, and that is to require a feedback system into it. Instapundit links to an article at the NYT on the topic of quality health care which looks at the cost system based not on its delivery of services but of the quality of services. This quality factor is something that bundles a few things together: overhead costs (paperwork, management), quality of care provided (by individuals who utilize the health services), quality of service (examining complications and attempts to mitigate them), and just the ability to provide the given service. Here the actual ability of the health service user, being you, is taken into deep consideration, along with the burdening the system of each provider. A provider that renders good quality care with low overhead and few mistakes gets a higher rating. This is important as it impacts two venues that are currently critical to the health care cost system: quality of care and overhead.

One of the major expenses in the insurance model is actually keeping track of the paperwork and making sure that reputable and reliable reports get reimbursed. This is no small matter as the bulk of the payments goes to those providing the services, and the problem of fraud or mis-applied treatment is a major cost overhead for everyone in the system. Fraud generally increases overall costs as it requires illegitimate payments and the time and energy to ensure they are tracked down and stopped. Quality providers offer not only good service but offer accountability, too. Accountability works to reduce overhead in that fewer poor procedures are done and the doctor has put in place a system to ensure that paperwork is quickly processed and procedures are accounted for. Additionally, input from patients then changes those ratings as does the favorite problem harped upon by politicians: torte reform for minimalizing malpractice suits.

The latter part is also a part of the overall rating, but a highly important one: doctors who have fewer suits against them can now point to insurance companies and demand better medical malpractice rates. This overhead, as well as the time involved in such suits, has been a cost expenditure the system has had to absorb both on the doctor time and the insurance company's time (both malpractice insurer and health insurance provider). Anything that lowers this cost and drives poor service providers from the market is a great boon in the long run and will help to lower overall delivery cost.

With that being said, the overall insurance model eats up a huge amount of time, capital and reduces the actual effective dollar being spent for health services. Here the two Presidential Candidates offer different views, but neither tries to tackle the problem of actually having insurance. I step through that overhead, but come to this conclusion:

Using government 'mandates' then becomes an effort to shift accountability out of the hands of patients, no matter how 'market oriented' a mandate is, and to meeting 'standards' set by a regulatory body that is appointed, not elected. As Mr. Stossel points out the average doctor utilizes 14% of their income to deal with *paperwork*, and even with most of that being electronic it requires the hiring of non-medical staff to handle insurance 'oversight' and paperwork. What you pay *into* health insurance becomes a fraction of what is paid out: you subtract of insurance company overhead, overhead of that burden on doctors who must change pricing due to it, and the increased cost of 'controls' and 'accountability' by the insurance company against fraud and just keeping track of the records. If you consider that 14% to be a baseline, just on the medical overhead side, then what is the baseline for the insurance company just to manage paperwork? 1% seems unlikely. 5% if it was run extremely well. In fact for most industries the non-work portion of the day for employees is considered at 20% and that is without profit added in.

If the insurance part is 20% and you throw in, say, a generous 12% profit... even 8% to be low... and you add in the cost of increase to doctors to keep track of the paperwork and pass that cost along, just what part of this 'insurance' is actually going to pay for medical expenses? You know, the stuff you use like doctor's visits and purchasing medications? 70% seems relatively fair, in that realm. So, if 15% of your overall budget goes to healthcare via insurance and you get a 70% useful return on that 15% you are actually spending, yes, 10.5% for healthcare. And that of your grandparents who didn't have insurance, back in the day when that was possible? I've read figures as high as 6-8% and as low as 3%.

That cost delta is lost money due to government mandates, regulations, tax subsidies and generally interfering with your health.

Getting accountability into the system will help to lower that 14% on the part of doctors, and that 20% from insurance companies, meaning that the 70% actual return will go up... maybe even to 75 or 80%! The rest of that cost gets harder to drive out, although the actual amount necessary to pay in (the 100% you pay) can be lowered if the cost of medical malpractice insurance starts to drive less capable providers out of the system. What you do not get to, save for a minority of cases, is a better than 100% return on your investment. You do get health care, however, which keeps you alive and functioning.

The other side that is effected, however, is that of the ability of service providers to actually do something quite different from production line work. The author of that article has not kept up with manufacturing and we are in an era of 'mass customization'. That is where a basic production line can offer a wide variety of products off of its line-up, made directly to customer specifications. That is a perfect analogy to dealing with health care as basic problems (medical conditions) can have a variety of variations due to individuals (due to metabolism, age, living circumstances, etc.) and with different complications (infections, slow healing rates, etc.). Here the basic production line of medical services vary within known parameters for the various characteristics and known types of complications that arise. Mass customized health care is different from personalized health care in that you, as a customer, have a specific set of variations based on *you* that are generally more typified into categories. As those typical variations are known, the types of complications that can arise gets restricted into fewer categories which, thereby, limits risk.

This feedback system is possibly the most important part of medicine shifting to the modern world using modern feed-back systems for patient tracking. By accumulating the non-personal categories and problems, the types of risks and complications can then be analyzed to see how diagnoses (services) are changing the system. Diagnoses that lead to no improvement, or even minimal negative feedback, can then be examined against other diagnoses and treatments prescribed. Those treatments (customized service) then allows for the diagnoses system to see what is happening with the treatments and offers feedback on effectiveness of them. This, cumulatively, changes the response of the system as a whole: it ensures that better diagnoses and treatments are reinforced while lesser effective ones are marginalized. That said for an individual with a suite of prior conditions and known variables, a personalized set of customized health provisioning can be made due to those things (and such things as patients actually doing their part in the system so those with lax attitudes may get a different set of treatments).

Here the goal is to provide better and more effective services and *reduce* end user cost as a percentage of their budget. So, lets say it cuts a full 1/3 off the final cost to you, the person paying for it: that gets you to 10% of your budget (5% being 1/3 of 15%). And that is the burdened cost and lets cut that burdening down to a mere 20%, thus your effective money towards health care is 8% of your budget! Just like your ancestors! And the 2% extra? Service fees burdened into the cost.

Yes you get to pay for the privilege of getting the health care that your grandparents did... or great grandparents for many at this point. And for better and more services?

Such a wonderful system.

The only major positive point is that it allows really nasty medical services to have less of an impact on the budget. But then that is what traditional insurance is all about, isn't it? Catastrophic care? Accidental Death and Dismemberment? You know, *regular* insurance. That you pre-plan for and have it take a miniscule part of your budget as they are rarities in life... unless one happens to get you.

And for the rest... well that concept of pre-buying sounds pretty good, really. And inflation-proof as it is for services expected in the future at some indefinite time. An investment, in other words, where the cash-out is something critical to keeping you functioning.

Both of those would be helped by this movement, also, maybe even to the point of having you paying less for your health than those of 70 years ago as a percentage of your overall budget.

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28 July 2008

That one, special piece makes it whole

Building computers has always been a favorite past-time and hobby of mine since I first got my hands on some of the earliest machines for home use back in the 1980's. I started out on paper based terminals in the late 1970's, working on a timeshare account from school on an IBM 360/76 mainframe. While I don't date back to punched cards, I do go back to their successor: the #2 pencil fill in the oblong. With a few cards, or tens of cards, you could get a rather simple program put together and the paper-based terminal was seen as an amazing part of the future. By the end of high school the Apple II, Atari 400/800, Commodore-64 and TRS-80 were all available along with the first business class machine by IBM, the PC/XT. Although the Apple II, PC/XT and TRS-80 all had expansion capability, via add-in slots, the ability to actually modify the system were minimal. Mostly it was *just* modifying the exterior, the case, and putting in better expansion cards for new capability. My first PC/XT by the mid-1980's was a Taiwanese clone that was relatively inexpensive and already 'second wave' due the the PC/AT and then the 386 revolution. Actually modifying cases could be done, but fitting a computer into something less cumbersome than a 50 lb. piece of luggage was difficult, although the far too expensive laptop machines had started to hit the street for a few years.

Going forward through the 1990's and the computer industry saw a major expansion as the Industry Standard Architecture bus (or ISA) designed by IBM, allowed for anyone to make an expansion card for their machines. A few companies 'black boxing' the Basic Input/Output System (BIOS) meant that '100% IBM Compatible' was in the actual mid-90's percent and 'good enough to just work'. IBM couldn't control that architecture, tried to shift to a proprietary one and slower processors and had its lunch eaten by Compaq, Dell and just about anyone who could get some sheet metal bent and had a source for cheap motherboards. That motherboard form factor which started with the XT and went to the AT (with oversized versions of each possible) soon shifted as the motherboard manufacturers hit upon a key size of the ATX. Plus they needed higher power, lower circuit trace lengths and some way to get things cooler inside the computer case. It is the form factor that makes the decision if you are not into high-end gaming and graphics these days: if you want a cheap PC to surf the net, do some word processing and spreadsheets, the cost of that machine and its size are now incredibly small.

Compared to a gaming rig, that is.

The form factor shift after the ATX, after a few false starts, headed downwards in size (with major exceptions for file servers and such). The Micro-ATX or mATX came next, being smaller than the ATX, but not as small as some embedded computers, like the PC/104 (which can fit in a computer keyboard). Movement on that front and the 'get a computer everywhere you can thing of' deal has moved form factors down in size as well as increasing capability and lowering cost. That is the magic of Moore's Law, where the number of transistors on a given size of circuit board is doubled every 18 months or so (there are variants of the Law), while keeping manufacturing costs relatively stable. Thus, for older capacity you can get more and pay less. Try *that* in the automotive industry!

This brings us to the modern era of the ITX circuit board, being smaller than the mATX but still able to fit into an mATX/ATX case (check the alignment holes before purchase). The ITX starts to hit into the realm of lower powered kiosks, interactive displays and all sorts of fun things and is both lower power and cost compared to a gaming PC. From there one market leader in the push to get computers into the smallest form factor that it still upgradeable (to some degree) is apparent. It is not Intel or AMD, but the company that has made chips to address some integrated capacity on motherboards that the other two may not do as well or as cheaply: VIA. If you want to see small form factor computers, VIA is the place that makes the motherboards for them. They are pushing down in size and cost, while putting more functionality into the motherboard, which holds the processor and graphics capability (at least on some integrated motherboards), so for your money all you need is a case and some memory, plus storage. And as these are somewhat older PC specifications you can often get that stuff on the cheap, or spend for what you need like memory or storage capacity.

Deciding to go where the big guys aren't going, VIA has set up VIA Initiatives to bring small form factor, cheap computers to the masses that seem to go a bit beyond the 'embedded' category. They can't do this on their own and need the help of manufacturing concerns, innovative system designers and just interested folks willing to do some of the 'just where can I put this thing?' sort of deal. This is seen at their Spearhead Initiatives page, and starts to get a good flavor for what is going on. The Mini-ITX moves the form factor down a notch, heading into the area of Personal Video Records (like TiVO's and such) for form factor size. The Nano-ITX starts to hit at the range of an oversize hardcover book. Their Ultra Mobile PC initiative looks to get fully functional sub-notebook to just a bit larger than palm size computers into the hands of everyday people at a low cost. The Asus company's Asus Eee is an example of that form factor. Currently the newest form factor size is the Pico-ITX, which, well...

epia-px_comparison

That is a motherboard, with CPU and the memory slot is on the underside. It has pinouts for all the other things you need, like USB and such, but notice the VGA connector in back for your monitor is built-in. To get this thing rolling VIA is offering a 'system builders kit' called the Artigo, which allows one to get the experience of putting in some memory, attaching a connector or two, screwing a few screws to put the thing in its case and then figuring out what to do with it. It has space for a 2.5" notebook hard drive in it. To give you an idea of the size of the thing, installed, it looks like this:

2099862770_52e0c85c39

Next to the monitor (17" I think) and the keyboard, just opposite the mouse is the Artigo. It has 4 USB ports, stereo in/out jacks, and VGA. Along with the small power brick that comes with the kit. Most resellers will bundle the Artigo kit with 512 MB of RAM and a hard drive, usually in the 40 GB range. While many of the boards, particularly Nano-ITX, are aimed at computing in vehicles, and a number of manufacturers make in-dashboard units, the Pico-ITX looks to be heading elsewhere, including the Open Source notebook area at the VIA OpenBook site. There to speed the adoption of this concept, they have placed the full engineering diagrams for public use out on the web, so that you can head over to a machine shop or plastic molding shop and get your very own notebook case made ready for parts.

And this now comes to the confluence of things that starts with a cheap piece of refurbished technology from NETGEAR: the SC-101.

enus_left-lores_product_sc101

Also known as - The Toaster from Hell. Quite a few people have made that and similar comment about its inability to stay on a network, keep integrity or even just plain old work. As I have a couple of old hard drives, due to the system rebuilds going on here, I thought it was worth a shot... and it is aptly named as the Hellish Toaster. But, on the cheap for refurbished, it was worth a shot.

The body is made of aluminum, looks to be cast aluminum, not milled. The outer parts are slide on plastic shells, with a steel front and back piece with plastic rim over them. It is, definitely, cute. It is not, most definitely, reliable nor even having stable drivers, with Netgear admits to and blames the suppliers of them. Stripped out it is a tiny circuit board made for doing not very much. I was hoping for some network filesharing amongst my machines, but that appears to be a lost cause.

With that said the form factor, internally divided into three bays (one each for 3.5" hard drives and the remainder for internal circuits) is interesting as it allows for 3.5" bay gear to fit into two of the three slots. Now the Artigo system kit is overlarge for that, as it would comfortably fit where a DVD/CD drive does in a regular computer system. Yes, you can have a computer in your computer, so to speak, with the Artigo doing some dedicated work while the main system is used for other things. The motherboard, alone, however, would fit neatly into the SC-101 and leave both other bays open... and there are a couple of better motherboards out from VIA...

If only there was a motherboard tray to do that.

I have looked at the bay components, and it might be possible to use a 2.5" hard drive adapter for a 3.5" bay to fit into the center slot of the SC-101. That is if you drill out holes for the motherboard standoffs (small devices put in to isolate the motherboard from the case that are often screwed in with a screw hole on the part jutting up, or just a plastic clip), but that requires drilling and tapping. Tapping is the process of threading a hole with the proper screw tap. I have, actually, done that in the far past for other things, and have since procured the necessary taps to do it again with hand screw. What that would allow is the 'down and dirty' putting in of parts, scrounging some faceplates and getting the thing functional. Hey, if you already have a drill, the right bit size and about $50 worth of taps and screw device it is well worth thinking about. You can even re-use the power brick that came with the SC-101!

Really, if I could find a custom metal bending shop in the neighborhood, I would just hit them up for a bit of work. In Buffalo that would be easy. In the drowsy communities of western metro DC in VA? Possible, yes, but someone who was trustworthy by the friend-of-a-friend network thing? Probably not. So that leaves the ugly look. Or does it?

In this modern era of computers, computer assisted or operated machines and all sorts of other fun things, there is one other way to go. Here the concept is 'rapid prototyping' of equipment via a shop that will do one-off work if you give them the CAD layouts with specifications and such. And since the actual ability to make Computer Assisted Drawings is relatively old technology, as well as 3D rendering, you would think there should be a way to do this pretty much online. A large number of shops will take in your design work if you already have the necessary programs, but you would really like a front-to-back sort of deal where you can do the layout work, specify materials and work to be done, finishing and get it pretty fast. Online price quotes a help!

The first place I have run across to do this is Online Machine Shop, which has a downloadable small program that allows for layout, custom specification, and an embarrassingly large number of things you can get done. It will even analyze your work and tell you when getting it all done on a single machine will keep the price down! For a one-off piece of work, I expect that the price would be pretty high... more than the cost would justify, really. Still, if you want something made to your specifications, and you can figure out materials, tool types and what you need done in the machinists parlance, this looks to be the place to go. The software feels like its from the mid-1990's, but running quickly unlike the 1990's.

So what am I wasting my time on? Yes, re-learning and dusting off some old skills from my teen years and having some fun with software and seeing just what I can make that SC-101 *into*. And if you ever needed just that one, special piece of something to make an overall design look *good*, be it woodwork, car, boat, home appliance... if you have time and patience to learn, you can actually get it done to your specifications within tolerances.

I expect that within five years or so the open source machining group will get it to where you can just get the equipment for your home and you supply the basic materials.

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25 July 2008

Founded on problems that good intentions harm

The following is a white paper of The Jacksonian Party.

The ways are numerous, but the salient ones for today have been clearly stated. The clearest overview is given in the Yates and Lansing letter to the New York Governor, 21 DEC 1787, in this paragraph:

Exclusive of our objections originating from the want of power, we entertained an opinion that a general government, however guarded by declarations of rights, or cautionary provisions, must unavoidably, in a short time, be productive of the destruction of the civil liberty of such citizens who could be effectually coerced by it, by reason of the extensive territory of the United States, the dispersed situation of its inhabitants, and the insuperable difficulty of controlling or counteracting the views of a set of men (however unconstitutional and oppressive their acts might be) possessed of all the powers of government, and who, from their remoteness from their constituents, and necessary permanency of office, could not be supposed to be uniformly actuated by an attention to their welfare and happiness; that, however wise and energetic the principles of the general government might be, the extremities of the United States could not be kept in due submission and obedience to its laws, at the distance of many hundred miles from the seat of government; that, if the general legislature was composed of so numerous a body of men as to represent the interests of all the inhabitants of the United States, in the usual and true ideas of representation, the expense of supporting it would become intolerably burdensome; and that, if a few only were vested with a power of legislation, the interests of a great majority of the inhabitants of the United States must necessarily be unknown; or, if known, even in the first stages of the operations of the new government, unattended to.

In large territories the ability to govern becomes a difficulty as the lengthy of distance between individuals and their representative leads not only to problems of government, itself, extending across such areas with the burden of government overhead, but also via the perceived distance between such representatives and the people they are representing. The extreme portions of the Nation would no longer be governable. Further, the problem is two-fold as those doing the governing, no matter how poorly, can seek to sinecure their offices by the means of government. And as the number of people to be represented increases and the number of representatives remains static, the power vested in each representative grows even as their ability to *be* representative of that population declines.

Federalist formulations of government put local government in control of local concerns: they generally do not create law. Laws from higher levels that get passed down to lower levels in a federal schema, increases the burden and overhead of those lower forms of government, slowly marginalizing their ability to be responsive to local concerns. This then winds up with few people making burdensome laws that clog up the entire set of governments starting at the national end. The more 'pass-through' there is to local levels for enforcement and accountability, the worse the overall system becomes.

Others had, of course, seen that problem as Centinel I did on 05 OCT 1787, in this passage amidst a much larger set of problems with the Constitution:

If one general government could be instituted and maintained on principles of freedom, it would not be so competent to attend to the various local concerns and wants, of every particular district, as well as the peculiar governments, who are nearer the scene, and possessed of superior means of information, besides, if the business of the whole union is to be managed by one government, there would not be time. Do we not already see, that the inhabitants in a number of larger states, who are remote from the seat of government, are loudly complaining of the inconveniencies and disadvantages they are subjected to on this account, and that, to enjoy the comforts of local government, they are separating into smaller divisions.

From the highest end, then, government needs to be limited in scope and size as it is the least able to understand local concerns. The closer government is to the action, the better it is able to adjust to the day-to-day affairs of people. While Centinel would go far afield from this outlook, that single statement of general rule of government size and distance is one that exists to this day for all governments in large geographic areas. Even the 'shortening of distance' via modern telecom systems have not mitigated the personal contact necessary for personally understanding the needs of limited populations in large geographic areas.

John DeWitt III by John DeWitt on 05 NOV 1787 would see a long series of problems with the House of Representatives, but a telling couple are these, after leading in with a transition passage from the Senate and the Executive, but it is also pertinent to the House:

Very possible also in a country where they are total strangers.—But, my fellow—citizens, the important question here arises, who are this House of Representatives? "A representative Assembly, says the celebrated Mr. Adams, is the sense of the people, and the perfection of the portrait, consists in the likeness."Can this Assembly be said to contain the sense of the people?—Do they resemble the people in any one single feature?—Do you represent your wants, your grievances, your wishes, in person? If that is impracticable, have you a right to send one of your townsmen for that purpose?—Have you a right to send one from your county? Have you a right to send more than one for every thirty thousand of you? Can he be presumed knowing to your different, peculiar situations —your abilities to pay public taxes, when they ought to be abated, and when increased? Or is there any possibility of giving him information? All these questions must be answered in the negative. But how are these men to be chosen? Is there any other way than by dividing the Senate into districts? May not you as well at once invest your annual Assemblies with the power of choosing them—where is the essential difference? The nature of the thing will admit of none. Nay, you give them the power to prescribe the mode. They may invest it in themselves.—If you choose them yourselves, you must take them upon credit, and elect those persons you know only by common fame. Even this privilege is denied you annually, through fear that you might withhold the shadow of control over them. In this view of the System, let me sincerely ask you, where is the people in this House of Representatives?

That tradition of choosing an annual set of representatives dates back far into Norse tradition with the Thing, and the annual selection of the lawgiver who then represents up at the next level of government from which is chosen one to go to an Althing or more national assembly. Two years was chosen for the size of the young Nation and the impossibility of having elections that often and still having time to get anything done... which is a very salient feature *for* annual elections, really. Be that as it may, the ability of the House to actually represent the common man or those that have 'common fame'. That is a wonderful position to describe, those who have common fame locally and are trusted as representatives. Something we lack in the modern position of wide-ranging fame is that of common fame.

Several States did have 'at-large' districts for Representatives, but that did not obviate the problem of the House being able to set its own rules for election proportions then passed into public law.

George Mason's Objections to the Proposed Federal Constitution, on 18-19 JUN 1788, examines numerous faults with it and gives a short passage in that laundry list of problems to this issue and then the specific powers granted to Congress:

In the House of Representatives, there is not the Substance, but the Shadow only of Representation; which can never produce proper Information in the Legislature, or inspire Confidence in the People; the Laws will therefore be generally made by men little concern’d in, and unacquainted with their Effects and Consequences.

[..]

By requiring a Majority to make all commercial & Navigation Laws, the five Southern States (whose Produce & Circumstances are totally different from that of the eight Northern & Eastern States) may be ruined; for such rigid & premature Regulations may be made, as will enable the Merchants of the Northern & Eastern States not only to demand an exorbitant Freight, but to monopolize the Purchase of the Commodities at their own Price, for many Years; to the great Injury of the landed Interest, & Impoverishment of the People; and the Danger is the greater, as the Gain on one Side will be in Proportion to the Loss on the other. Whereas requiring two thirds of the Members present in both Houses wou’d have produced mutual moderation, promoted the general Interest, and removed an insuperable Objection to the adoption of this Government.

Under their own Construction of the general Clause, at the End of the enumerated Powers, the Congress may grant Monopolies in Trade & Commerce, constitute new Crimes, inflict unusual and severe Punishments, & extend their Powers as far as they shall think proper; so that the state Legislatures have no Security for their Powers now presumed to remain to them, or the People for their Rights.

Now comes the warning signs of what happens when you give such power to a body that is ill-representative, sets its own size and begins to become an Aristocracy in and of itself.

While the objections raised were somewhat addressed in the Bill of Rights, the overall general view still stands as one in which a distant legislature makes laws that it cannot know the effects of when implemented. By regulating to ensure one way of trade or to implement a system that is not adaptable to circumstances, those laws will distort the marketplace and impoverish many to the benefit of the few. Beyond that the ability of the government to set its own borders on those things it is given to do then allows for those seeking to invent new problems to expand government into the leeway to do so once in the majority.

Amendments IX and X would ameliorate some of that very last by establishing that everything not given to the federal government is retained by the States and the People. Under that restricted view any expansion requires justification, and that has always been the outlook of those seeking fewer limitations on government, not more.

The corrosive powers in government and even the basis for representation are seen by Brutus III on 15 NOV 1787 and would also house a strong logical denunciation of something then going on:

The words are "representatives and direct taxes, shall be apportioned among the several states, which may be included in this union, according to their respective numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole number of free persons, including those bound to service for a term of years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other persons." — What a strange and unnecessary accumulation of words are here used to conceal from the public eye. what might have been expressed in the following concise manner. Representatives are to be proportioned among the states respectively, according to the number of freemen and slaves inhabiting them, counting five slaves for three free men.

"In a free state." says the celebrated Montesquieu, "every man. who is supposed to be a free agent, ought to be concerned in his own government. therefore the legislature should reside in the whole body of the people, or their representatives." But it has never been alledged that those who are not free agents, can, upon any rational principle, have any thing to do in government, either by themselves or others. If they have no share in government. why is the number of members in the assembly, to be increased on their account? Is it because in some of the states, a considerable part of the property of the inhabitants consists in a number of their fellow men, who are held in bondage, in defiance of every idea of benevolence, justice, and religion, and contrary to all the principles of liberty, which have been publickly avowed in the late glorious revolution? If this be a just ground for representation, the horses in some of the states, and the oxen in others, ought to be represented — for a great share of property in some of them. consists in these animals; and they have as much controul over their own actions, as these poor unhappy creatures, who are intended to be described in the above recited clause, by the words, "all other persons." By this mode of apportionment, the representatives of the different pans of the union, will be extremely unequal: in some of the southern states, the slaves are nearly equal in number to the free men; and for all these slaves, they will be entitled to a proportionate share in the legislature — this will give them an unreasonable weight in the government, which can derive no additional strength, protection, nor defence from the slaves, but the contrary. Why then should they be represented? What adds to the evil is, that these states are to be permitted to continue the inhuman traffic of importing slaves, until the year 1808 — and for every cargo of these unhappy people, which unfeeling. unprincipled, barbarous, and avaricious wretches, may tear from their country, friends and tender connections, and bring into those states, they are to be rewarded by having an increase of members in the general assembly.

That is a thoroughly consistent view of the slave trade and the rationale behind it and putting forth that to admit to some sort of proportional representation to slaves is to admit their commonality of being human. Once done what separates free men from slaves is diluted and, even worse, some States are allowed continue bringing in non-voting individuals to gain disproportionate representation. The drafters of the Constitution faced the dilemma of the principles of liberty, freedom and equality for men, and the absolutely inhuman conditions of the slave trade. When there is any proportional representation given, the power wielded by those States having slaves dilutes the power of free men to actually do anything about their condition via legislation.

This is why, as free agents, people are to keep tabs on their government: it is for their own interest. When those who have no ability to vote are given representation, then those who *do* vote wield disproportionate power at the ballot box. When done by *choice* the decision to not vote is one that is based on what that individual sees as their own best interest and that of their fellow man. The concentration of voting weight of those left does increase, but not by law, but by choice to make the conscious decision to not vote weigh upon the greater society at large.

Balancing off the North and South, in general, was a hard thing to accomplish in 1787. By adding in the idea that there should be *some* representation for slaves the idea was to compromise between NO representation and FULL representation by ending the institution of slavery. If the former was unthinkable to abolitionists the latter was a deadly blow aimed at the most prosperous part of the US economy: the agricultural south. Within a few decades that basis of formulation would change, and starkly, until the shifting point of industrial output of the north became the predominant part of the US economy. At that point in time the idea of a 'Gentleman Farmer' of the Jeffersonian mode was one that saw industry and self-support via farming as an ideal and was amenable to slave holding and pure freeman work.

If this most noxious compromise sits in one of the most revered documents of the US and, indeed, becomes the basis for government of the Nation, then we must recognize that the system of amendments put into the document would allow later generations to undo things that would not work out. Amendments XIII and XIV would end personal holding slavery and recognize that those freed from its bondage are, indeed, men and due the rights and full protection of the Constitution. Even that would be only a partial ending of slavery, however, as Amendment XIII gives a singular condition for its actual use:

AMENDMENT XIII

Passed by Congress January 31, 1865. Ratified December 6, 1865.

Note: A portion of Article IV, section 2, of the Constitution was superseded by the 13th amendment.

Section 1.
Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction.

Section 2.
Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.

That underlined section is important as it moves the racial basis of slavery out of the acceptable, and yet retains slavery as the most extreme punishment allowable in the US. If a crime is so heinous that even death is not a just punishment, then the removal of ALL rights and liberties of an individual and placing them in perpetual servitude is still allowed. It is a 'poison pill' to the States that were once slave States as any punishment would need to be meted out equally, regardless of skin color.

It is in those sections regarding slavery that would then lead to the question of: how is the general citizenry being treated? In Brutus III the transition is made between that compromise and the nature of government amongst free agents, and that there is a direct correlation between having unequal weight for slave holding States and those composed of free agents:

It has been observed, that the happiness of society is the end of government — that every free government is founded in compact: and that, because it is impracticable for the whole community to assemble, or when assembled, to deliberate with wisdom, and decide with dispatch, the mode of legislating by representation was devised.

The very term, representative, implies, that the person or body chosen for this purpose, should resemble those who appoint them — a representation of the people of America, if it be a true one, must be like the people. It ought to be so constituted, that a person, who is a stranger to the country, might be able to form a just idea of their character, by knowing that of their representatives. They are the sign — the people are the thing signified. It is absurd to speak of one thing being the representative of another, upon any other principle. The ground and reason of representation, in a free government, implies the same thing. Society instituted government to promote the happiness of the whole, and this is the great end always in view in the delegation of powers. It must then have been intended, that those who are placed instead of the people, should possess their sentiments and feelings, and be governed by their interests, or, in other words, should bear the strongest resemblance of those in whose room they are substituted. It is obvious, that for an assembly to be a true likeness of the people of any country, they must be considerably numerous. — One man. or a few men, cannot possibly represent the feelings, opinions, and characters of a great multitude. In this respect, the new constitution is radically defective. — The house of assembly, which is intended as a representation of the people of America, will not, nor cannot, in the nature of things, be a proper one — sixty-five men cannot be found in the United States, who hold the sentiments, possess the feelings, or are acqainted with the wants and interests of this vast country. This extensive continent is made up of a number of different classes of people; and to have a proper representation of them. each class ought to have an opportunity of choosing their best informed men for the purpose; but this cannot possibly be the case in so small a number.

Even at the early date of the founding, the concept of 'class consciousness' was present, but here presented in a formulation different from later political thinkers. Brutus is not calling for a class based representation concept, but for having representatives so numerous that all classes gain a say across the entire population. Adding in representational allotment to those who have no vested interest in society, being slaves, then creates an absolute problem of 'who represents them?' When applied to the larger society as a whole, the question of 'who represents the people?' becomes one that cannot be lightly shrugged off. If the Constitution creates an unrepresented class of people while addressing them as a class, which it does, then exactly what is going on with the rest of the outline of government?

This is a remarkably subtle examination of representative government and the ends to which it will be put by those inside of it. Later Brutus looks at what he expects to have happen with such government:

I cannot conceive that any six men in this state can be found properly qualified in these respects to discharge such important duties: but supposing it possible to find them, is there the least degree of probability that the choice of the people will fall upon such men? According to the common course of human affairs, the natural aristocracy of the country will be elected. Wealth always creates influence, and this is generally much increased by large family connections: this class in society will for ever have a great number of dependents; besides, they will always favour each other — it is their interest to combine — they will therefore constantly unite their efforts to procure men of their own rank to be elected — they will concenter all their force in every part of the state into one point, and by acting together, will most generally carry their election. It is probable, that but few of the merchants, and those the most opulent and ambitious, will have a representation from their body — few of them are characters sufficiently conspicuous to attract the notice of the electors of the state in so limited a representation. The great body of the yeomen of the country cannot expect any of their order in this assembly — the station will be too elevated for them to aspire to — the distance between the people and their representatives, will be so very great, that there is no probability that a farmer, however respectable, will be chosen — the mechanicks of every branch, must expect to be excluded from a seat in this Body — It will and must be esteemed a station too high and exalted to be filled by any but the first men in the state, in point of fortune; so that in reality there will be no part of the people represented, but the rich, even in that branch of the legislature, which is called the democratic. — The well born, and highest orders in life, as they term themselves, will be ignorant of the sentiments of the midling class of citizens, strangers to their ability, wants, and difficulties, and void of sympathy, and fellow feeling.

And will still need the votes to get into office from those not well born, not connected, and generally middle class and poor. The inherent wealth necessary to run for office, hold office, retain office, is one not readily available to the common man. While a man of 'common fame' can get to such offices, that is because of that fame allowing them to be more widely known and to seek the modest donations of their fellow man to run for office. The influence of wealth and power in US politics is not a modern artifact, but one dating back before the Constitution, and how to address it is given as a major problem for the idea of representative democracy.

Getting to the center of this nexus, Brutus adds this, and it becomes a major sign-post for representative democracy going wrong:

It will consist at first, of sixty-five, and can never exceed one for every thirty thousand inhabitants; a majority of these, that is, thirty—three, are a quorum, and a majority of which, or seventeen, may pass any law — so that twenty—five men, will have the power to give away all the property of the citizens of these stateswhat security therefore can there be for the people, where their liberties and property are at the disposal of so few men? It will literally be a government in the hands of the few to oppress and plunder the many.

And others have already started to point out the tools of that source exploitation by government for those in power: taxation, regulation, duties. Another is the military power granted Congress, but before stepping to that, it is important to realize that these three powers over a nation, as a whole and in part, are sufficient in and of themselves to set up a system of unequal government to assure the prestige of those in office and to gain a perpetuity of representation.

That looks something like this, in modern terms:


Courtesy: thirty-thousand.org

With the fixing of the size of the House of Representatives comes the era of the incumbent: the utilization of government power and the restriction of democracy so as to ensure that only a set number of individuals rule in near perpetuity over time. Gaining a seat in the House of Representatives is a near guarantee of lifetime employment in that body. That is, by definition, not representational democracy, due to changing demographics *alone*.

The actual point of this, and a sideswipe at other writers, was done by Roger Sherman in A Countryman II on 22 NOV 1787, and the point of it is stark and even while being dismissive, it brings it into clear focus:

The only real security that you can have for all your important rights must be in the nature of your government. IF you suffer any man to govern you who is not strongly interested in supporting your privileges, you will certainly lose them. If you are about to trust your liberties with people whom it is necessary to bind by stipulation that they shall not keep a standing army, your stipulation is not worth even the trouble of writing. No bill of rights ever yet bound the supreme power longer than the honeymoon of a new married couple, unless the rulers were interested in preserving the rights; and in that case they have always been ready enough to declare the rights and to preserve them when they were declared. The famous English Magna Charta is but an act of Parliament, which every subsequent Parliament has had just as much constitutional power to repeal and annul as the Parliament which made it had to pass it at first. But the security of the nation has always been that their government was so formed that at least one branch of their legislature must be strongly interested to preserve the rights of the nation.

[..]

If you cannot prove by the best of all evidence, viz., by the interest of the rulers, that this authority will not be abused or, at least, that those powers are not more likely to be abused by the Congress than by those who now have the same powers, you must by no means adopt the Constitution. No, not with all the bills of rights and all the stipulations in favor of the people that can be made.

But if the members of Congress are to be interested just as you and I are, and just as the members of our present legislatures are interested, we shall be just as safe with even supreme power (if that were granted) in Congress, as in the General Assembly. If the members of Congress can take no improper step which will not affect them as much as it does us, we need not apprehend that they will usurp authorities not given them to injure that society of which they are a part.

The sole question (so far as any apprehension of tyranny and oppression is concerned) ought to be, how are Congress formed? How far are them members interested to preserve your rights? How far have you a control over them? Decide this, and then all the questions about their power may be dismissed for the amusement of those politicians whose business it is to catch flies, or may occasionally furnish subjects for George Bryan’s POMPOSITY, or the declamations of cato, An Old Whig, Son of Liberty, Brutus, Brutus Junior, An Officer of the Continental Army, the more contemptible Timoleon, and the residue of that rabble of writers.

That, while being a bit condescending and provocative towards other writers, does make the point of deciding how the Congress is chosen as an absolute safeguard to liberty and freedom. We have, since that era, seen politicians and 'activists' seek to expand the definitions of the Constitution as enacted and put in place, so as to greatly expand and abuse the power available to the federal government. Amendment XIV was put in to address those who had been slaves in the Nation and to ensure that equality was provided to them, not as a super-set of rights to be applied across all time to 'empower' those who are not even citizens. By establishing that the freed slaves *are* citizens, the Constitution is amended to provide equal protection of the law to them *as* fellow citizens.

Today we find that Congress is seeking to protect a 'right of communication' outside of the borders of the Nation and that is not covered by their powers, save on the domestic side of things. As part of the Executive power, communications outside the Nation are not sacrosanct, save between citizens, which Congress can duly cover under its laws of the high seas power. While ship passage is protected by the Constitution, communication out of the Nation via other means is not: that traditional intercept capability of any Nation to spy upon other Nations utilizing whatever comes their way in the sea far from National borders and protection, is then an Executive power as part of defending the Nation by the army and the navy, and for intercourse with foreign governments. That is why the Executive is separate from the Legislative, as the dealings with foreign Nations, proper execution of the Admiralty power and gathering information about foreign Nations is handed to one individual chose by the people via the Electoral College. That route is a completely separate set of safeguards to choose an Executive for those powers.

When Roger Sherman addresses this question and tries to negate the other questions that arise from the Constitution, he is attempting to not only concentrate the discussion, but also to put aside the repercussions if Congress can NOT be chosen well and securely. His basic answer is the common one of many writers: choose by means of the most populous representational system of the States and put that in place for the House of Representatives. it is the methodology that other writers address, however, as they examine the formulation of government and seek to find what may be mitigated at the start, so as to properly address those concerns for future generations. Far too many take the dismissive tone, to this day, and believe that it was all properly hashed out, while the opposite is true: the safeguards that Roger Sherman called for were not properly addressed by those who proposed the Constitution as seen in the examples and arguments brought up by many on the Anti-Federalist side. Many, such as Mr. Sherman, were not out to thwart the Constitution, but to refine it and ensure that the safeguards against particular and well known forms of failure were put in place.

Looking at one of those examinations in A Federal Republican: A Review of the Constitution on 28 NOV 1787, there is a hard examination of the problems that are seen with the structure of the Congress and its powers, and part of that lengthy review looks at where a National government moves with such powers:

What does all this amount to, but an oblique confession, that Congress may, if they please, load us with many needless expences?

The taxation of the particular states for their own support will be over-ruled by Congress, or else it will be obliged to embrace a measure perhaps the most odious in the world, viz. excessive taxation. This would be widely different from the opinion of the ablest politicians. I am persuaded that if this constitution were to be adopted, Congress would be reduced to this alternative, either to oppress the people in the manner just hinted, or commit upon them a violent injury by depriving them of their rights.

Congress will be the judges of what is necessary for the general welfare of the United States, and this will open the door to any extravagant expence which they shall be pleased to incur. For this reason their power should have been accurately defined. Baron Montesquieu (B. 13, C. I) observes that "the real wants of the people ought never to give way to the imaginary wants of the state. Imaginary wants are those which flow from passion, and from the weakness of the governors, from the charms of an extraordinary project, from a distempered desire of vain glory, and from a certain impotency of mind that renders it incapable of with-standing the attacks of fancy. Often times has it happened, that ministers of restless dispositions have imagined that the wants of the state were those of their own little and ignoble souls." That this may happen here, we have a right, and indeed ought to suppose. Any man who carefully attends to the constitution(n) quoted above, must judge that the powers granted by it, are too indifinite. Indeed as it stands there expressed, it includes every other power afterwards mentioned.

This is the exact, same problem that modern Conservative writers have with the utilization of powers by Congress to this very day. We hear of the imaginary wants of the Nation invented by politicians: Social Security, Health Care, backing governmental mortgage companies, and even ideas that government at the federal level has anything to do with local education. These and a raft of other 'programs' are the imaginary wants of the federal government at the National level: they have no basis beyond the 'general welfare' part of the Constitution. That is the Art. I, Sec. 8 power at the very top of that Section:

The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;

Federal Republican is examining these clauses and having dealt with the first part of this clause then moves on to the second part, and correctly deduces that unrestricted language given to Congress is not a boon but a bane: in giving it such wide discretionary powers for taxation, Congress may declare anything it wants as for the 'general Welfare of the United States'. If the large scale re-ordering of society to the outlook of Congress were not bad enough, the citation of Montesquieu also examines those things that flow from passion, weakness, attempts for personal glory or just seeing a 'neat idea' that should, in theory, help the Nation while, instead, only serves the personal outlook of those in Congress. When this is added to the regulatory power further down in Sec. 8, Congress is then granted a full suite of tools for dealing with things beyond just the 'general Welfare' but delves directly into the personal and particular outlooks of those humans sitting in Congress. We call that 'pork barrel spending' and it goes far beyond anything envisioned for the 'general Welfare of the United States' and yet by the power of Congress it may indulge itself in anything it can get passed... or slips through due to the size of the budget.

Indefinite powers, granted over long periods, are problematical: by trying to ensure that they are not abused via the electorate, the very means of abusing them via a system of factionalization within the electorate allows for majorities to press home views which are not shared by a substantive minority. And when that majority gives verbiage that it is for the betterment of all, the attempt is made to mask the problem of expanding federal power in, and of, itself. Congress, as Federal Republican examines, has great power to enact petty legislation to meet whims of that body of governors. Even when the 'general Welfare' part is cited, it is used to cover purely local affairs instituted from Congress or, even worse, intrude upon the areas of Amendment IX and X which are all other rights retained by the States and the people. Thus removing a right via the 'general Welfare' outlook becomes condoned by law.

Federal Farmer VIII on 03 JAN 1788 looks at this further problem of indefinite power:

We may amuse ourselves with names; but the fact is, men will be governed by the motives and temptations that surround their situation. Political evils to be guarded against are in the human character, and not in the name of patrician or plebian. Had the people of Italy, in the early period of the republic, selected yearly, or biennially, four or five hundred of their best informed men, emphatically from among themselves, these representatives would have formed an honest respectable assembly, capable of combining in them the views and exertions of the people, and their respectability would have procured them honest and able leaders, and we should have seen equal liberty established. True liberty stands in need of a fostering hand; from the days of Adam she has found but one temple to dwell in securely; she has laid the foundation of one, perhaps her last, in America; whether this is to be compleated and have duration, is yet a question. Equal liberty never yet found many advocates among the great: it is a disagreeable truth, that power perverts mens views in a greater degree, than public employments inform their understandings — they become hardened in certain maxims, and more lost to fellow feelings. Men may always be too cautious to commit alarming and glaring iniquities: but they, as well as systems, are liable to be corrupted by slow degrees. Junius well observes, we are not only to guard against what men will do, but even against what they may do. Men in high public offices are in stations where they gradually lose sight of the people, and do not often think of attending to them, except when necessary to answer private purposes.

Those that govern will lose attachment with the people if allowed to do so - they will do that because of their station in government, not from outright malice. When you have a hammer, everything begins to look like a nail, thusly those in government start to see government as the solution to anything and everything. Even if it is to just meet their own highly biased needs that are personal and private. Congress has seen fit to exempt itself from many workplace regulation laws on hours, payment, and even workplace safety. That does not serve the Union but does serve *them*. That is a vice of office that creates laws: those making such laws can exempt themselves from the law and thus shield themselves from that which is placed upon the common man. Whenever we hear of 'Congressional Staffers' having problems, it is Congress that sets its own size, gives itself its own staff, exempts itself from the general laws regulating such staff and, more generally, utilizes such staff in whatever way personal members see fit. Is it any wonder that they grow distant having their own personal servants on the public's payroll? If the work is too onerous, then make Congress bigger to divide up the duties and eliminate the staff. Of course that brings more eyes to legislation and makes getting things done for individual members harder by diluting their power...

This then brings us to the central point of Congressional power, as seen in Cato No. 6 by Cato on 13 DEC 1787:

In what manner then will you be eased, if the expences of government are to be raised solely out of the commerce of this country; do you not readily apprehend the fallacy of this argument. But government will find, that to press so heavily on commerce will not do, and therefore must have recourse to other objects; these will be a capitation or poll-tax, window lights, &c. &c. And a long train of impositions which their ingenuity will suggest; but will you submit to be numbered like the slaves of an arbitrary despot; and what will be your reflections when the tax-master thunders at your door for the duty on that light which is the bounty of heaven. It will be the policy of the great landholders who will chiefly compose this senate, and perhaps a majority of this house of representatives, to keep their lands free from taxes; and this is confirmed by the failure of every attempt to lay a land-tax in this state; hence recourse must and will be had to the sources I mentioned before. The burdens on you will be insupportable—your complaints will be inefficacious—this will beget public disturbances, and I will venture to predict, without the spirit of prophecy, that you and the government, if it is adopted, will one day be at issue on this point. The force of government will be exerted, this will call for an increase of revenue, and will add fuel to the fire. The result will be, that either you will revolve to some other form, or that government will give peace to the country, by destroying the opposition. If government therefore can, notwithstanding every opposition, raise a revenue on such things as are odious and burdensome to you, they can do any thing.

By having such an ability to tax for anything it wants, Congress may justify what it wants under 'general Welfare' and get it. We already have the lovely ideas that were put in place during the 1930's heading the Nation to bankruptcy because of the cost of social security, and now others wish to dispense other goodies from government... which is already going bankrupt. The upshot of that is seen by Centinal No. 8 by Centinel on 29 DEC 1787:

But as it is by comparison only that men estimate the value of any good, they are not sensible of the worth of those blessings they enjoy, until they are deprived of them; hence from ignorance of the horrors of slavery, nations, that have been in possession of that rarest of blessings, liberty, have so easily parted with it: when groaning under the yoke of tyranny what perils would they not encounter, what consideration would they not give to regain the inestimable jewel they had lost; but the jealousy of despotism guards every avenue to freedom, and confirms its empire at the expence of the devoted people, whose property is made instrumental to their misery, for the rapacious hand of power seizes upon every thing; dispair presently succeeds, and every noble faculty of the mind being depressed, and all motive to industry and exertion being removed, the people are adapted to the nature of government, and drag out a listless existence.

If ever America should be enslaved it will be from this cause, that they are not sensible of their peculiar felicity, that they are not aware of the value of the heavenly boon, committed to their care and protection, and if the present conspiracy fails, as I have no doubt will be the case, it will be the triumph of reason and philosophy, as these United States have never felt the iron hand of power, or experienced the wretchedness of slavery.

Again, while inflammatory, the point of Centinal and the others who have looked at this is that Congress, given this over-arching and unlimited power being unchecked can and does start to change the course of society to its own ends, instead of the other way around. Granted that many of the laws are good, such as ones encouraging trade and limiting monopolies and removing onerous child labor, but others that attempt to reward a portion of the people or offer things to some and not others falls more harshly into the divisive powers use to oppress some and uplift others. If the rich have no need of social security or medical insurance, then why force them to pay for something they will not use? And if it is something that only the rich can get, then spreading it out to the general population is costly and done via the inefficient means of government. If home ownership is so good, then why back up those Americans that cannot even figure out their budget to get such things? These are rewards we are, as a whole, asked to pay for while it is only the few or even a majority that benefits from it, while a substantial minority not only do not benefit but have to pay for these luxuries.

By creating that rift and exploiting it, and by not having sufficient representation to allow for a thorough discussion and review of these things, government then represses the minority by removing those views from the public dialogue in the seat of power. Dividing up the population into factions and then subdividing those factions to smaller groups, allows for factional politics to be created in which a 'majority' is a bare interest of self-enrichment that is then leveraged upon the minority as a 'common good'. If we can stand up for the rights of one person to speak out against things done to protect the Nation from abuse, then why are these voices attacked as seeking to hurt those sub-groups? By changing that focus from the entirety of the people to those sub-groups, the dialogue is stifled and ended. Speak up and you are *against* this or that group instead of seeking for common law and application across all of the people for equal protection and letting each benefit from their liberty to prosper or not as the case may be.

In closing, there is a Federalist perspective on what to do if this sort of thing arises, but I am pretty sure that it is just as unpalatable as the vices of Congress foisted upon the people and then supported by a vocal minority to give more power to government... that minority allied here and there to get a majority when it can, that is. Alexander Hamilton wrote this in Federalist No. 26 on 22 DEC 1787:

"The legislature of the United States will be obliged by this provision, once at least in every two years, to deliberate upon the propriety of keeping a military force on foot; to come to a new resolution on the point; and to declare their sense of the matter by a formal vote in the face of their constituents. They are not at liberty to vest in the executive department permanent funds for the support of an army, if they were even incautious enough to be willing to repose in it so improper a confidence. As the spirit of party in different degrees must be expected to infect all political bodies there will be, no doubt, persons in the national legislature willing enough to arraign the measures and criminate the views of the majority. The provision for the support of a military force will always be a favorable topic for declamation. As often as the question comes forward, the public attention will be roused and attracted to the subject by the party in opposition; and if the majority should be really disposed to exceed the proper limits, the community will be warned of the danger, and will have an opportunity of taking measures to guard against it. Independent of parties in the national legislature itself, as often as the period of discussion arrived, the State legislatures, who will always be not only vigilant but suspicious and jealous guardians of the rights of the citizens against encroachments from the federal government, will constantly have their attention awake to the conduct of the national rulers, and will be ready enough, if any thing improper appears, to sound the alarm to the people, and not only to be the VOICE, but, if necessary, the ARM of their discontent.

Schemes to subvert the liberties of a great community require time to mature them for execution. An army, so large as seriously to menace those liberties, could only be formed by progressive augmentations; which would suppose not merely a temporary combination between the legislature and executive, but a continued conspiracy for a series of time. Is it probable that such a combination would exist at all? Is it probable that it would be persevered in, and transmitted along through all the successive variations in a representative body, which biennial elections would naturally produce in both houses? Is it presumable that every man the instant he took his seat in the national Senate or House of Representatives would commence a traitor to his constituents and to his country? Can it be supposed that there would not be found one man discerning enough to detect so atrocious a conspiracy, or bold or honest enough to apprise his constituents of their danger? If such presumptions can fairly be made, there ought at once to be an end of all delegated authority. The people should resolve to recall all the powers they have heretofore parted with out of their own hands, and to divide themselves into as many States as there are counties in order that they may be able to manage their own concerns in person."

The man was a revolutionary, after all, and his prescription goes beyond just the armed forces and Congress seeking to undermine the country by rough take-over. In fact when it is Congress that is the *source* of the problems, then his solution *must* devolve down to its basics.

One man speaking up to decry the problems and cite that the removal of rights is tyrannical, no matter how *good* the things provided are. And as the people are the source of legitimate government, when government acts to expand its powers at the expense of the people, then the final check and balance rests not in government, but with the people.

If you like social security and decry narcotics laws, realize they are *both* part and parcel of this. We pay for both directly and indirectly, not only in money but in the imprisonment of many who have sought to do no harm to others. The narcotics are addictive, but they, at least, are amenable to an individual mending his ways... the handouts by government are far more addictive to the body politic. Both of these, and many other things done for the 'general Welfare' have their supporters, and yet neither of them is given to government to look after as we are supposed to look after ourselves. Charity from government is servitude to bureaucrats and the wardens, and neither is a good place for a free people to be under in a subservient condition. The cost of having poor is the necessity of charity and good will towards our fellow citizens, the price of handing those to government is eroded liberty and freedom.

Sphere: Related Content

21 July 2008

Resources and wilderness can go together

There is something that has always struck me a bit wrong-headed about some views, and one of them is the attractiveness of wilderness areas and mankind's need to develop natural resources. Humanity can, indeed, extract resources in a way that will not damage the natural beauty of an area. Some people don't understand that.

One of them is running for President, this from The Campaign Spot at NRO on 16 JAN 2008:

Mike Goldfarb: Some people are perplexed by your rhetoric on global warming. Is this one of those ‘no surrender’ issues, or is there room for discussion?

McCain: There’s always room for discussion. But I don’t know how any conservative can not support cap and trade. We did it with acid rain. The Europeans are putting it into effect. It’s a capitalist process that encourages green technologies. If we’re wrong, all we’ve done is adopt green technologies, in an effort to give our kids a greener planet.

As far as ANWR is concerned, I don’t want to drill in the Grand Canyon, and I don’t want to drill in the Everglades. This is one of the most pristine and beautiful parts of the world.

Now it is time to take a look at some natural resource development that went on in the Grand Canyon, and for that I will rely on a couple of snaps taken from Google Earth. First the overview of the Grand Canyon:

GC Overview

The green outline shows the park, itself. I have highlighted the resource development that went on until 1972 in the park.

Can't see it? I did outline it...

Hmmmm...

Here it is, right by the Visitor's Center!

Lost Orphan Coppermine

In red outline, the Lost Orphan Coppermine.

Not so important, huh? I mean it was *just* a copper mine after all... or was it?

It turns out that there was a different activity going on there, one which is still effecting the place. This taken from Mike Mahanay's site on The Old Orphan Mine of the Grand Canyon:

Visitor Access: Orphan Mine is located on the south rim of the Grand Canyon between Maracopa Point and Powell Memorial. The immediate vicinity is visited by at least 1.5 million people each year. Visitors walking along the canyon rim must detour around the site. The large headframe and other structures on the site attract curious visitors. The chain-link fence around the mine workings is often in a state of disrepair, and is only partly effective where it joins the rim.

[..]

Mine History and Current Ownership:

The history of the Orphan Lode Mine began when John Hogan and Henry Ward filed a claim in 1893 on their workings of a copper outcrop in the Coconino Sandstone about 1100 feet below present day Powell Point and Maricopa Point several miles west of Grand Canyon Village. Others say the Orphan Mine was first worked for copper in 1906.

Uranium was discovered in the ore and mined from 1953 to 1972. Uranium content in ore shipments was as much as 4.9 percent and approached 80 percent in individual samples. The patented land was acquired by National Park Systems in 1963, but extraction rights were retained by the operator until August 1988.

Why there you go, a uranium mine right in the Grand Canyon where anyone is forced to walk around it because it is still radioactive:

Hazards: The main shaft is 1,500 feet deep and is accessible via a ladderway exposed just below the canyon rim. The remaining structures, foundations, and trash also present physical hazards. Radiation levels are elevated throughout the compound and in a visitor-use area to the west, with combined beta and gamma sometimes exceeding 3.0 mR/hour.

Now 3 milliroentgen per hour which is about 3 millirem per hour (according to Steve Quayle's Radiation Measurement Converstion Tables, which states the Roentgen=Rad=Rem equivalence) and from Wikipedia we find that your average annual does is 200 millirem per year. From the Radiation Effects Research Foundation glossary, we can see that what you get may be a bit higher ( Wikipedia pegs it at 2 mSv while they go to 3.6 mSv) from natural background sources. That chest X-Ray gets you about 0.05 mSv, while the hourly output at the mine is 0.03 mSv/hr. Thus the environs of the old mine puts out your annual dose of normal radiation in 70 hours and a chest X-Ray about every 16 hours, give or take on both, though the higher value for US exposure puts it up in the 130 hour range. Call it 3 to 5 days.

Stops tourism in the Grand Canyon this radiation danger, does it?

Disfigures the Canyon beyond all redemption?

Did you even *know* about it?

Now I'll take the shaded relief map from the ANWR site at the Fish and Wildlife Service and overlay it on GE:

ANWR overlay

Ok, got that? The yellow outline is all of ANWR. Now I will take you to the proposed drilling site:

ANWR drilling site

Yes, the 2,000 acres around that area just on the edge of ANWR is the area of all the fuss. There are a few BP, Exxon and other platforms right next to it.

Now I will pull out, and I've increased the size of the text so it should appear visibly, even though the sitemark is no longer visible:

ANWR drilling site overview

Do you see that? No?

Like the uranium mine in the Grand Canyon?

From the anwr.org site on its visitor traffic:

WHO ACTUALLY VISITS THE ARCTIC NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE?

The answer?: Not many. For most of the year, ANWR is unbearably cold and dark. For several weeks, the sun doesn't even rise and leaves the windswept landscape a very inhospitable environment. Only a few hundred people visit ANWR each year.

Understanding the visitor�s of ANWR � How many people actually visit this 'national treasure', �America�s Serengeti'?

In 1997, between 1,000-1,500 recreational visitors actually spent time within the 19 million acre Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), a region the size of the State of South Carolina.

"Currently, exact number of recreationists are unknown. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service conservatively estimates the total at 1,000 to 1,500."

Tom Edgerton, Arctic NWR, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Less than half of the total ANWR visitors, approximately, 500 � 750 visited the Coastal Plain area for such activities as rafting, hiking and hunting.

Most visits occurred between mid-June and late August.

Visitors to ANWR were down by half in 1997 compared to the highs of 1990.

Recreational groups average eight people and spend an average of 10 days in the refuge.

The Sierra Club conducts 6-10 activists group training trips every year to ANWR. These tours make up a major portion of the commercial visitors to the Coastal Plain. Costing $3,000 to $4,000 per person.

In 1997, 46% of ANWR commercial clients visited the Coastal Plain.

ANWR (entire including the Coastal Plain figures below)

Hunters 215 clients

Guided 78

Private 137

Hikers � guided (approximately) 92 clients

Rafters � guided (approximately) 160 clients

Coastal Plain (only) approximately

Hikers � guided 56 clients

Rafters - guided 60 clients

Source: The U.S. Fish and Wildlife, Tom Edgerton, Arctic NWR; October 28, 2000

Hmmmm.... Sierra Club brings in 24-80 folks on average. Probably that 'guided' part. Don't want to spoil that natural beauty by hunting or hauling rafts in there.... why at worse they are only 8% of the users of the place.

For the 10 billion or so barrels of oil, in a tiny flyspeck next to an already developed oil section of the coast, to give 1,000 to 1,500 folks the joy of the entire area of which this is an area they wouldn't want to visit as it is desolate and you just might see an oil pumping station on the horizon... for *this* we are doing nothing?

You have a better chance of finding the Orphan Coppermine and snoozing too long and winding up with sunburn from the sun than you do of ruining the 'pristine beauty' of the muskeg next to the already developed north slope areas by developing oil reserves in the far north of Alaska. And since I have never heard of the Great Moose Migration having to go miles around the area and endangering the major fauna of the area, perhaps, just perhaps, the worries are a bit overblown.

And with the way reclaiming of natural surroundings is going these days, any 'impact' in Alaska will disappear long before the radiation in the Grand Canyon does.

You did know that there was uranium in the rocks in the Grand Canyon, especially stuff like the granite underlying it, right?

Just checking!

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20 July 2008

A war remembered

It is a horrific war, a terrible war, one derided and impugned to imperialism by the United States by a misleading President. It went right and actually was won, the major fighting part of it, but then things went horribly wrong and the promised peace turned to bloodshed. Disgruntled civilians took to fighting the occupiers who would not respect them nor their ways. That President would support the armed forces, get a change in direction in the fighting and those naysayers at home would find the one or two disgruntled soldiers and put them up for all to see about just how bad things were. And then, when things started to go right and the civil conflict abated, the good works of the armed forces would be ignored by the media, as it could no longer inflame passion for peace as it did against war.

Sound familiar?

Let's start with a veteran's organization of a previous war in the run-up to the next one, as seen in this article:

"General disatisfaction, and an attempt to place the organization in the hands of the Ohio representatives, making it appear as a move for political purposes, and the recent action of the committee who were in the minority asuming the privilege of eliminating and vacating offices created by the National convention, making several appointive officers, and a move to control the association generally, and remove the headquarters to Ohio. Those who were present today are men who have made National reputations and are here to make the association a success and not use it for selfish motives."

One of the appointed officers of the veteran's organization was a man who would soon be running for high office. That actually would have some impact on the future course of events, and to heighten things I will remove place names and such to take a look at how the common soldier of that next war would see it from on the ground about a year into it:

"Not even in garrisoned places can a soldier or American go out in the night without danger of being killed from ambush, and we never go out unless we have to. Sometimes around a post you will not see a sign of a [native], but when darkness comes on they pop at us from all around."

"When we first got out to [Nation where fighting is taking place] we were disposed to treat the natives fighting with kindness, and cared for the wounded as carefully as our own, but when we found natives we had nursed to life turning around on us as soon as they had recovered and trying assassination and other deviltries, we nearly all decided that the best [native] was a dead one. It is impossible to estimate the number of natives killed, but I tell you it is thousands upon thousands, but, like flies, the more you kill the more there are."

"We got tired in my company of sending out details to bury the natives killed, and finally, when we had a skirmish away from a permanent post we let the natives lie where they were killed, as the carrion birds will pick them clean in a couple of days, and we killed so many that it would take all our time to play undertaker. We found [natives] would frequently mutilate our dead, carving some of our poor fellows as neatly as butchers dress mutton and beef for the market. This fact made our boys furious, and then we started killing for fair. It may sound bad, but you could not blame our men if you were out there. I was never so happy as when I potted a [native], and so it goes.

[..]

"On many dead [natives] we found papers in [foreign language], saying that a new party would soon be in power in the United States, and that the fight must be kept up until then. Extracts from the Democratic speakers praising [natives] were also included in the [foreign language] papers found.

"It will take an army twice the size of the present one to subdue the [natives] and we have practically made no headway in this respect, save in a very few seaports. The men are getting tired out, and have too much work to do. The rations are very good. Sometimes we live on the country when we get a chance, and we detail six sharpshooters, whose duty it is to shoot any stray chickens and other live stock fit to eat belonging to natives, who have left for parts unknown, and, of course, our men are not overparticular whether the owner is around or not sometimes. It depends on how hungry they are."

You know, for all the 'horrors' of Iraq, I have problems placing it in the top 5 of most gruesome wars the US has been involved in. And yet this war had a deployment roughly equal in size and time spent as our forces in Iraq, yet by the end of the first year things were definitely not looking up.

Even more eerily is that a lone chronicler, like today's Michael Yon, would go and look first hand at what was going on and report the good, bad and ugly so that Americans could get a better look at what it was, exactly, we were doing there. And the indictments of that sort of reporting are extremely frightening for their repeat of today. Again I will do substitutions to remove the time period, but you are probably getting the time frame and have already guessed the war:

Evidently the author believes that justice has not been done to the [natives], and that "until an inept bureaucracy was substituted for the old paternal rule, and the revenue quadrupled by increase taxation" they were a happy community, the population multiplying, cultivation extending, and exports steadily increasing.

"The [Appointee in charge], importuned on one hand by doctrinaire liberals, whose crude schemes of reform would have set [the region] on fire; confronted on the other hand by a serried phalanx of the [learned religious scholars] and their literary bravos," was between the devil and the deep sea. But even handicapped as the administration was, it boasted some reforms and improvements. The hateful slavery of [neighboring natives] had been abolished, forced cultivation of tobacco was a thing of the past. In all the [area] [those forced to work the land] had been reduced. A [telecommunications system] connecting [the capital] with [a major foreign city] and the world's [telecommunications system], had been laid and subsidized, a railway 120 miles long had been built from [capital] to [major city], [modern] tramways had been laid, lighthouses were built, a capacious harbor was under construction. The [capital] water works had been completed. Technical schools were established in [the capital] and [another city], and lower grades of schools were well attended. "Credit is due the administration for these measures, but it is rare to see any mention of them," says the author, though doubtless the omission to record them is due to what, in the light of his remarks, is the flattering assumption by Americans and Englishmen that these various Concomitants of civilization were naturally expected in the more populous and civilized centers.

Regarding the religious orders, Mr. Sawyer remarks:

They are not wholly bad, and have had a glorious history. They held [the area] from [258 years] without any permanent garrison of [Ruling Nation] regular troops and from [73 to 68 years before this article] with about 1,500 artillerymen, &c. Having survived their utility, they are an anachronism, but they have brought the [Nation] a long way on the path of civilization.

About American rule, Mr. Sawyer expresses his opinion bluntly. Its unfortunate beginning has raised a feeling of hatred in the natives:

That will take a generation to efface. It will not be enough for the United States to beat down armed resistance; a huge army must be maintained to keep the natives down. As soon as the Americans are at war with one of the great powers, the natives will rise: whenver a land tax is imposed, there will be an insurrection. The difference between this war and former insurrections is that now, for the first time, the natives have rifles and ammunition, and have learned how to use them.

Notice that even winning the 'hearts and minds' campaign is given short shrift because it is 'naturally expected' that these things will be done! Mind you they had NOT been done before that, so the actual undertaking of getting a series of highly technical and complex projects under way in an area that had little infrastructure for them must have been colossal. The direct assessment that the media was not reporting these things to its own ends is what is given. Even when the man who had been there sees the need for a huge army, he still sees hope, of a kind. It is not the route that you would expect from the modern era, however, and that is dating it a bit:

"There is no doubt," continues the author, "that if peace and an honest Government can be secured, capital will be attracted, and considerable increase in the export of hemp, tobacco and sugar will take place as fresh land is cleared and planted.*** But the [Nation] are not, and will never be, a country for the poor white man."

More banks are needed for financing timber cutters, gold miners, and agriculturalists, who now pay enormous rates of interest and commissions for funds to carry on their vocations. There are a need for sugar factories in suitable localities, paper mills, rice mills, and cotton mills. That the commerce of [the area], now mainly [another foreign Power], will ultimately pass into American hands, can scarcely be doubted.

The United States, as rich and powerful as it was, could not do these things: it was incumbent upon the natives to do these things for themselves and that rested on honest Government. It is the one sure cure for problems with insurgencies, one of which would develop, and for quelling post-war conflicts. Without honest governance and security of knowing that the government is reliable and honest, there can be no investment so that the people can invest in *themselves* to create a better economy and better life. Building the infrastructure of transportation, telecomm, water supply, and educational institutions is a start, but they will all be lost without a good, honest post-war government.

Once the insurrection that started the insurgency began, there was a call from a local native political party for those groups doing the fighting on their side to lay down their arms. That did not happen, and the response of the American officials is extremely informative on what the basis of ending the conflict would be:

Taking up the question of the political future of the [natives], it is declared that the theory upon which the commission is proceeding is that the only possible method of instructing the [natives] in methods of free institutions and self-government is to make a Government partly of Americans and partly of [natives], with ultimate control in American hands for some time to come. Less than 10 per cent of the people speak [previous Ruling Nation's language], and the educated people, under the influence of [previous Ruling Nation] teaching, have but a faint conception of real civil liberty and the mutual self-restraint required for its maintenance. The commission has already, however, established municipal suffrage in the pacified parts of [the Nation], and has limited the suffrage to those who can read and write English or [previous Ruling Nation's language], or who own property of the value of $250, pay an annual tax of $15, or have been municipal officers. Thus far, only 49,523 electors have qualified under these provisions, out of a population of 2,695,801, in 390 municipalities, showing only 18.3 electors per 1,000 inhabitants. This is only about 10 per cent of the number which would qualify with similar population under American law. The commission declares that in fixing these qualification it followed the recommendations of all the [natives] who they consulted, except that there were many who advocated a higher qualification.

Many of the common people, the commission believes, will be brought within these qualifications in one generation, by the widespread system of education which is being inaugurated, and the electorate will thus be gradually enlarged. Meantime it is proposed by practical lessons to eliminate from the minds of the more intelligent part of the community those ideas of absolutism in government which now control, and to impress upon them the division of powers prevailing under the American system.

The answer on how to get good government? Ensure that people can read/write so as to take part in the dialog of the community and read about further information, or have some basis of buy-in to the community via property ownership. The method to expand the suffrage of the citizenry is to educate them and that has already started with a system of schools being started. Note the timeline expected: a generation. Further on the article describes how the natives were the ones lobbying to GET English as their primary language, across the school systems. That is *native* teachers wanting to do this and recommending it, not imposition from the top-downwards.

The next piece is priceless, and really, it is time to let the cat out of the bag about this war that America was involved in and, apparently, has completely forgotten about. In case you think that Moveon and their ilk, or any of the modern 'peace' movements is a new phenomena in America, it is time to read about An Anti-Imperialist Petition being backed by those against the war, and I will take the liberty of transcribing it in full from the NY Times archives of 06 FEB 1902:

The right of petition is guaranteed in the First Amendment to the Constitution. It is exercised for many purposes, some wise, some foolish. In our judgement it has been exercised unnecessarily by certain gentlemen who in the preamble of the petition presented by Senator Hoar in the Senate are described as "sundry citizens of the United States, eminent men of letters and scholars and others, favoring the suspension of hostilities in the Philippine Islands, and that an opportunity be given for a discussion of the situation between the Government and the Filipino leaders."

These petitioners pray for the appointment of a committee of the Senate to investigate:

The practices of the American Army in the Philippines, so that the truth may be laid before the people of the United States: that if the reports be true steps be taken at once to stop reconcentration, the killing of prisoners, the shooting without trial of suspected persons, the use of torture, the employment of savage allies, the wanton destruction of private property, and every other barbarous method of waging war which this Nation from its infancy had ever condemned.

A "suspension of hostilities" in the Philippine Islands at the request of the military authorities of the United States would prolong hostilities, greatly increase the cost in money and human life of our task in establishing civil order in the islands, and could serve no purpose recognized as sound and desirable by any person of sense not at present opposing the policy of this Government. The use made of the Filipino issue in Mr. Bryan's campaign gave aid, comfort, and encouragement to the insurrectionists. Gov. Taft said before the Senate Committee on the Philippines that "the insurgents believed that if Mr. Bryan should be elected there would be a change in policy and the islands surrendered, placing those who were in insurrection in charge." A request for the suspension of hostilities would, with absolute certainty, be construed by them as a proof that the United States had been beaten in the war, which they are quite ignorant enough to believe, or that it was about to change its policy and deliver the islands into their keeping. In either case negotiation with them would be fruitless, and the only result would be further encouragement for them in their policy of resistance. The chief agitators among the American anti-imperialists have consistently treated the encouragement and aiding of the rebels and the loss of American soldiers' lives thereby occasioned as minor and negligible incidents of their campaign against the policy of the Administration. They are impatient when reference is made to the bloody mischief they perpetrate, and begin to talk about padlocks and gag law.

The other aspect of this petition is its request for information to the end "that the truth may be laid before the people of the United States." The truth has been laid before the people of the the United States during the present week by the Civil Governor of the Philippines , an upright and truth-telling man whose information concerning Philippine affairs is more recent, full, and accurate than that possessed by any witness accessible to the subpoena of the Senate committee. These petitioners pray to be informed whether we are carrying on warfare in the Philippines as barbarians and murderers. Gov. Taft, who is not an advocate of military rule, testified on Tuesday that it was his deliberate judgement that "never had a war been conducted in which more compassion, more restraint, and more generosity had been exhibited than in connection wth the American war in the Philippines."

This testimony was given after he had candidly stated that the many instances of mutilation of corpses of our soldiers by Filipino rebels had provoked "some retaliation on the part of small bands of Americans." There had been probably "some cases of unnecessary killing, some cases whipping, and some cases of what was called 'the water cure,'" which is a method of filling men up with water until they become frightened and tell all they know. All these acts had been "in the face of direct orders to the contrary." We may add that they are all such as would perpetrated to a greater or less extent in individuals cases by the soldiers of any civilized country under the same provocation. Our anti-imperialists treat these isolated offenses as if they were common, habitual acts, committed with the approval or under the orders of American officers.

These anti-imperialists suggest that orders be issued to deal with the Filipinos "as with persons whom one day we hope to make our friends." Gov. Taft declares, according to the press report, that "the great majority of the people of the islands desire peace, and that the insurrectionists by their acts are preventing the mass of people from settling down and earning a quiet living. Instead of being allowed to do this, they were kept under a system of terrorism, which should be stopped."

He describes what remains of the war as "a crime against civilization. It is also a crime against the Filipino people to keep up a state of war under the circumstances. They have worn out the right to any treatment but that which is severe and within the laws of war."

We are dealing with the great body of the Filipinos as persons whom we hope to make our friends. The rebels who are our enemies are their enemies. The chief objects of anti-imperialist solicitude are these enemies of ourselves and of the Filipino people.

You won't get THAT kind of understanding from the NY Times these days!

Those anti-imperialists of yesterday would fit right in with the modern Left, lock, stock and barrel. The sense shown in that conflict by the NYT is absolutely astounding and is the exact, same reasoning used for the modern COIN work in Iraq: that offering a 'cease fire' extends the conflict, increases casualties, and makes things far more costly. That did not stop William Jennings Bryan, running on the Democratic ticket, from trying to utilize the war issue and appear to be 'wise' in his approach to those who were continuing on a brutal insurgency for what would turn out to be years. If a change in policy started to try and appease the insurrectionists, they would take that to mean that they had *won*, especially if done by a Democratic President.

Even more fun is that those anti-imperialists of old, when told they are extending the conflict by giving hope to the insurgents, then start to trot out the 'gag law' defense, which has no basis in fact. It is as if their conscience is getting the better of them and shaming them with the fact that their support is killing Americans and Filipinos, and so they resort to the protection argument and tell you that they are under threat for 'speaking the truth'. And yet all they are being asked to do is consider the consequences of their acts before they take them. That, too, is missed by the modern 'anti-war' crowd.

Then there is the impugning of the honor of those placed in the unenviable position of trying to get a lid put on a boiling pot as a post-war situation transfers into an insurgency. Then it was the Civil Governor of the Philippines and in Iraq it was the Provisional Authority led by Mr. Bremer, and then the follow-on Interim Government. Much scorn was placed on a man who dutifully spent time trying to find WMDs, get some sort of provisional authority going, and then that Provisional government had to deal with the fast erosion of some peaceful areas being undermined by foreign terrorist organizations.

For those who think Abu Ghraib was bad, note how Gov. Taft characterizes what went on in the way of atrocities in the Philippines - killing, whipping, and some form of water torture similar to waterboarding. Given what we learned from that soldier's report a couple of years previously, with dead American soldiers being skinned like cattle... and some not so dead, as heard from elsewhere... would you actually try to *blame* their fellow soldiers for those acts of retribution against a foe that wore no colors, abided by no government, adhered to no code of conduct, was unaccountable to any authority and considered that they were a law unto themselves? And the retort by the anti-imperialists of old, as is that of the anti-war folks of today is that this is really habitual, ongoing, continuous, condoned and even ordered. Gov. Taft would call that 'terrorism' and that is exactly what it IS. If you hear a friend of yours being skinned alive at night, just out of where your lights can get to, will you not feel some heat of revenge?

Nothing of the Islamic terrorists of today is close to *that*, as beheading is simply barbaric in the extreme, not inhuman. By acting in such a way continuously and without let-up, and attempting to stand up no accountable authority, those insurgents in the Philippines forfeited their rights under all the Laws of War. By giving those insurgents rhetorical aid and help, by the belief that they can outlast America, the death toll would be worse and the conflict extended some years.

Considering where we are, today, in light of where the COIN work in the Philippines was back in 1902, the modern US Citizen Soldier has proven to have deeper moral reserves, a much more highly refined sense of ethics, an ability to adapt in an incredibly short period of time to changing conditions and to persevere just like our forefathers did in the Philippines. That was a horrific conflict not only in the toll in lives, but in the toll of the fiber of those who fought to find their friends skinned and trussed up like sides of beef a day or two after a fight. The toll upon the people of the Philippines would be higher, and yet they stuck by the US to the point of offering to aid us during WWI. By then the rule had already transitioned, by and large, to civilian Filipino home rule with the insurgency sputtering out between 1908 and 1910. A pretty long time after the original war started way back in 1898. And a bit over a generation later, after getting conquered by Japan and liberated by America and having to stand government back up, they are a democratic and free society with their own troubles and problems.

Call it about a century to finally get fully on track. And Iraq is starting from a much, much better spot in terms of education, infrastructure, literacy and economy than the Philippines had. And yet offering rhetorical aid to our enemies is still seen as fashionable, 'cultured', 'sophisticated', 'nuanced'... and lethal to our fellow citizens becoming soldiers. But then appeasement always looks nice when someone else will be doing the dying.

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You had better believe it!

Ahhh... the Obama campaign...

Yes it is probably photoshopped... still... H/t to Mark Hemmingway at NRO.

Then there is this number by Ed Morrissey at Hot Air on Sen. Obama flunking history:

After receiving a hailstorm of criticism for considering Brandenburg Gate for a public speech, as well as official German dissuasion, Barack Obama moved the venue to the Siegessäule monument. Obama will speak about “historic” US-German relations, but once again, Obama’s own grasp of history has been proven deficient. Not only does the site contain a monument to Prussian victories over other American allies in Europe, its placement was decided by Adolf Hitler — in order to impress crowds in his idealized version of Berlin called Germania:

Still, even as the issue of his speech’s location has now been settled, a number of politicians in Berlin are still dissatisfied with the site. The Siegessäule — or Victory Column — was erected in memory of Prussia’s victories over Denmark (1864), Austria (1866) and France (1870/71). The column originally stood in front of the Reichstag, Germany’s parliament building, but was moved by Adolf Hitler to its current location in 1939 to make way for his planned transformation of Berlin into the Nazi capital “Germania.”

“The Siegessäule in Berlin was moved to where it is now by Adolf Hitler. He saw it as a symbol of German superiority and of the victorious wars against Denmark, Austria and France,” the deputy leader of the Free Democrats, Rainer Brüderle, told Bild am Sonntag. He raised the question as to “whether Barack Obama was advised correctly in his choice of the Siegessäule as the site to hold a speech on his vision for a more cooperative world.”

Andreas Schockenhoff of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats said, “the Siegessäule in Berlin is dedicated to a victory over neighbors who are today our European friends and allies. It is a problematic symbol.”

Hitler didn’t just move the monument to its more central location. He had a taller column built for it as well, to emphasize its message of German military domination over Europe. He saw it as a message to Germans of their destiny — as well as to other Europeans as their destiny as well. It was never meant as a symbol of peaceful, multicultural co-existence.

Yes going from the Brandenburg Gate,

BrandenburgerTorGold
Image: Wikipedia

with all of its historical import about being steadfast against the USSR and seeking to re-unite the German State, to... well...

Berlin_siegessaeule_1603
Image: Wikipedia

...winged victory.

Over Denmark, Austria and France.

Well there you have it: Sen. Obama looking to piss off European Allies in a way no Republican would dare do.

Change you can believe in!

As no matter how bad things are, they can always get worse.

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18 July 2008

Of computers old and ancient

There is a very strange feeling one gets updating a piece of old computer equipment: you know it is old, that it works and that no matter what you do to it the thing will remain old. Old but serviceable and still useful as a Internet surfing machine or something for light duty office work. I know that is the case as that is what I used it for!

The machine in question is an old ECS A900i Desknote or 'i-Buddie' system which was mid-range way back when I bought it back in... hmmm.... 2001 I think it was. Early in the year which tends to get lost when looking at 2001. It was actually pretty nice, back in the day, even able to run some 3D first-person games and would stand me in good stead as my travel computer as I ventured out during my R&D days. After far too long running in good condition, it suffered from software bloat and so many updates to the operating system that you can't keep track. It needed a replacement, basically, for what I wanted to do, and it sat on the shelves once I got the refurb Dell Inspiron 1721 of much PITA suffering I have previously written about.

Now with family members who travel a bit and could use a relatively portable machine, I decided to do the end of lifecycle dance with the Desknote and give it the final upgrades it could take. Which, by reading the documentation, seemed to indicate: RAM, hard drive, CD/DVD slot, and CPU. I purchased those, I think from Newegg as it generally has low prices and a good reputation. So checked out the memory type as an old 168 pin SDRAM at 133 or 100 MHz, got a nice brand new Hitachi 160 GB Travelstar, one of the Samsung DVD burners for upgrading notebooks, and a 1.4 GHz Celeron.

I did check out everything that was easily check-outable, and as the stuff arrived I made sure it was, indeed, what I wanted and fit... save for that CPU, that is buried inside the unit. Still, the other stuff could go in waiting for that, and the memory worked out easily, as did the DVD drive save for lacking the cute faceplate, but this is a machine of function, not good looks. I did realize I had to move the old retaining pieces off of the old CD/DVD combo drive, but I have two sets of jeweler's tools which includes, at this point, two sets of philip heads, one set of flat head, sub-1/4" open wrenches, sub-1/4" allen wrenches (the savior of system builders of the old school!), plus regular interchangeable screwdrivers with magnetic heads and an assortment of left over tools purpose used to get into cases (like those case screws which really need a bit of leverage to get them started when taking them out).

As an old DIY builder, I kept all my tools as they are just far too handy to let go. Plus lots of replacement screws and such I accumulated over the years. Had to do that as I still had computers and enough skill to actually not want to send out to a repair shop for something I can still DIY. The fun, it appears, was about to begin.

By the time the Celeron had rolled around, system makers had been using a Zero Insertion Force socket system for placing CPUs. So, I thought, as the maker had put everything else into an easy-to-upgrade position, I would have thought that the CPU was likewise situated. Such was not the case, however, and I then proceeded to find every single screw I could take out of the back cover (after disconnecting said system, of course) and even find the last evil screw sitting under a sticker under the hard drive. That last took awhile to find. Slowly ease that plastic back cover off... and two hours later I do have it off all in one piece, which is a minor miracle of sorts... I am confronted by a sheet metal covering the electronics.

Which is kept on by two screws and gently inserting the small tabs into various parts of the assembly. With that off I was confronted by a cute little heatsink and fan unit, monopiece, which then came off, got cleaned and used canned air to blow the dust off of it. And do I see the much expected ZIF socket?

Oh, woe is you who believe that in the effort to shave a few bucks off of a computer that the manufacturer will actually put in a 30 cent part to make life easy.

I gently eased the circuit board up, shined the handy-dandy flashlight in and confirmed that the CPU was, indeed, soldered straight on the board.

Much imprecation was heard throughout the land!

Curses to cheap system builders!

Twits! Ninnies! Feebleminded idiots!

And so on, as I slowly put the thing back together. For the first time in I don't know how long I can remember I have had a zero screws lost ratio on that project and I carefully put each and every screw back in its proper place. The system still booted, too!

With a blank, brand new hard drive I wanted to put in the best end of lifecycle operating system which, for that machine, is Windows 2000. Remember, this is going to non-technically astute folks, so it *must* work without a single change to anything done via command line, scripts or such like. I did consider Ubuntu, and generally like its features, but not for non-technical family.

Previously I have introduced Nlite as a good way... no splendid way... to update a WinNT based operating system, with Vlite now its companion for things Vista-ish. It does, indeed, work with Win2K and I did the basic upgrade to latest Service Pack on it. That said there are a buttload of updates since then and I had to scout around a bit to get an auto-downloader for those. Likewise I wanted a handy 'use anywhere' Win2K disk, so a bit of work found a nice place with just about every 2K/XP driver known to mankind except, of course, those for the iBuddie which are neither modern nor nice. Those I found at the manufacturer's site. Finally the Nlite user community has a dedicated individual or two who put together Addons to install with your operating system during the install. Those were much, much appreciated and will have to send a donation their way for that as putting in all sorts of goodies like Open Office, Opera, K-media megapack, VLC VideoLan, and such is all to the good. All of that got slip-streamed, only awaiting installing of MS dotNet, its service packs and then MSIE 6.0. Plus service packs, hot fixes, security updates, malicious software removal tools... and on and on...

Worked, too! Unattended install so I could wander around the house and take care of other things and come back to a system ready for the post-install updates. That went smoothly and the system is now ready for family use.

Good job!

Now as I have a brand new 1.4 GHz Celeron I am going to do another end of lifecycle build with it, and strip out most of the junk in the dead-board SuperMicro 750A case. That will go as a back-up computer for family members. After that there is just one case and I am internally debating what to do with that... it has a fully functioning system, but a back-up game machine would be handy for another family member and it is not suitable 'as-is'.

That is what has been taking up my time: updating my old computer DIY skills, hitting the marketplace on-line, and slowly doing the update and out-cycle dance. At the end of it I will treat myself to a new flat screen monitor once the two ancient LGE 19" ones go to family members.

I am, basically, killing time to the election. I am dissatisfied with the two-party system, the 'third parties' which I have major philosophical disagreements with per-party (just like the two mainstream parties!), the candidates who are no better than Carter... actually worse in some ways due to the micromanagerial style of them or simple lack of being good at it (hey! who the hell vetted candidates who don't know economics, have organized crime contacts and both want more government?). Scratch that last: there are NO good micromanagers on the face of the planet.

At least the antiquated technology works within its parameters.

The antiquated two party system does not.

Microprocessors? Yes!

Micromanagers? No!

The US operating system is more or less ok.

The poor software needs to be stripped down to the core of the OS.

It is looking like re-install time to me starting with bare OS and a few good service packs.

The rest of the software needs to go.

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14 July 2008

Jesse: 1, Barack: -2

Remember how Sen. Obama thought he was going to be portrayed at a fundraiser (H/t: Gateway Pundit):





Sen. Barack Obama: "We know what kind of campaign they are going to run. They're going to try to make you afraid. They're going to try to make you afraid of me. He's young. He's inexperienced and he's got a funny name. And, did I mention he's black."
Keep that in mind, now.

Then comes Rev. Jesse Jackson and what he said he wanted to do:




And now we get to see how Sen. Obama responds to something that is relatively mild as these things go:


Courtesy: The New Yorker

And the Obama Campaign's response? From The Swamp:
The Obama campaign, as well as the campaign of Republican rival John McCain, slammed the cover as offensive:

"The New Yorker may think, as one of their staff explained to us, that their cover is a satirical lampoon of the caricature Sen. Obama's right-wing critics have tried to create," Obama spokesman Bill Burton said in a statement, reported by Politico. "But most readers will see it as tasteless and offensive. And we agree."
Notice how the 'satirical cartoon' plays on Sen. Obama being young, inexperienced, having a funny name and being black?

Yes, it looks like Jesse bagged a pair as the response is very thin skinned compared to what others go through in public life.

A note to Sen. Obama: If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.


Or be seen as taking tutoring.

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12 July 2008

The failings of the bailings

The following was originally presented at The Jacksonian Party.

With the headlines of two home mortgage insurance companies operating under federal guidelines and by those operating from appointment by the President, one does get to wonder just when the federal government will realize that it has very little part to play in housing. Or in bailing out companies. This is getting to be a habit of companies that face extinction due to poor business practices: claim you are 'too big to fail' and the federal government is supposed to come out with billions in support. This talk is not new, as we have all come to see, and the first of the big companies to seek a bailout was Chrysler. Making bad business decisions and having poor accounting procedures in the 1970's led the company on a path to insolvency. While the federal government had helped other companies, this would be the first that would seek substantial backing to survive. This was unusual for the US and many worried that the precedent set, then, would be repeated after that and more frequently and with larger price tags. Looking at Saving Chrysler article of 01 NOV 2005 by Mark W. Dirsmith (Source: All Business):

Legislators were perhaps more concerned with Chrysler as a precedent for the future than they were with consistency with the past. The spectre of a governmental inability to refuse any company in distress in the wake of a Chrysler bailout was proffered, albeit in an intentionally overstated manner (Panetta, 1979). The absence of decisional criteria made conversations of subsequent bailout candidates and susceptible industries range wildly. The epitome of this perspective characterised the Chrysler proposal as a push toward the replication of British subsidisation of industry of this era. Many worried that the problems of private industry would become an inexorable drain upon the public coffers. Again, accounting was not seen as a source of reliable criteria by which governmental assistance could be responsibly provided.

[..]

The core of the principled arguments against a bailout rested within the notion that failure was a confirming experience for the exposure of private ventures to the test of the marketplace. Since the well being of all was enhanced by the failure of the inefficient and ineffective (Paul, 1979). A governmental bailout was tantamount to a direct rejection of private enterprise (Friedman, 1979). Moreover, special assistance demonstrates a preference for a few private interests over the more diffuse public interests (Stevens, 1979).

[..]

Proponents of the bailout refuted the ideological conclusions of the free market thinkers and offered their own. The business version of the survival of the fittest was characterised as an outmoded depiction of the US economy now that the interconnections between elements of the system have increased (Nelson, 1979). Nothing sacred or novel was said to be involved when competition was already less than pure. Every large company already had an on-going array of relations with the government that were not at arm's length. A more assertive stance proposed that temporary intervention was consistent with the finest spirit of capitalism (Wylie, 1979). Along these lines, government's role in preventing market failure was called essential for the smooth functioning of the modern high-risk market (Eagleton, 1979).

Unlike bailout opponents, advocates indicated the desirability of an ad hoc analysis. Philosophic approaches about the proper function of government without sensitivity to the costs and benefits of particular circumstances were seen as self defeating. To the extent that ideological debate could be displaced, new types of information would take on increased importance. For example, accounting information could fill the breach once an inquiry into particular costs and benefits had been legitimated. However, there did not seem to be an appetite for the exploration of more technically rational questions about the efficiency of the allocation process. Arguments about philosophic predispositions could not set the tone for the introduction of accounting information.

Capitalism is, at heart, a philosophy of markets and trade supplying the best solutions to the greatest number of people at the lowest cost for highest profit margin. While the marketplace is, assuredly, not 'pure' due to such things as Anti-Trust regulation, Securities and Exchange Commission and various federal banking and business regulations, the idea that an 'impure' system improves with more interference is also a philosophical one. If the basics of the marketplace are to work, the foundering of a company, no matter how large, is not going to permanently harm the Nation. For such things as DoD equipment that is vital to the defense of the Nation, there already existed contracts and necessary law to allow for such parts of companies to be taken over if the companies failed: there was no national security part that can be worth mentioning as the government holds the ultimate card for national defense. That is part of the 'impurity' of the marketplace, and yet is highly limited to those things necessary to defend the entire Nation.

What the argument of those for the bailout was is very simple: political expediency. Any 'ad hoc' process that has no set definitions to it can come up with whatever end result those involved want. By not setting up a system of objectives, goals, and measurements for them, there is no ability to say if *any* action is warranted... or that any action *can* be warranted by this lack of structure. What you get is highly expected:

The multifaceted aspects of the process of attaining governmental support for Chrysler create a context that crowds out the use of real accounting information. In political processes, information is not neutral but instead exists within a system of resource mobilisation and interest alignment that itself is bounded by temporal constraints. In this instance, the accounting information could only be a small part of a much larger package that was manipulated and moderated in a short time frame by a host of parties with much to win or lose.

Raw numbers, market share, profit margin, efficiency of production, capability of sustaining a workforce... all of those have emotional impact to them inside the political process. In point of fact the entire political process *is* emotional and depends more on perception than the actual, real basis for decision making. By moving the question of a bailout from one of pure accounting and into the political arena, the emotional context can be brought into play and decisions slowly move from good economic sense to a biased weighting of emotional values. Thus producing 'gas guzzlers' became a point against Chrysler, no matter how well or poorly such cars sold in the market place - the emotional value of the words trumped actual economic activity.

President Carter, the man who came to Washington as an 'outsider' and with a populist and anti-corporate agenda would be the one to actually push this thing into the political arena. Such things as what compensation packages, or 'golden parachutes', executives would get were balanced against the United Auto Workers demands for representation and continuation of contracts. Even worse was the impact of regulations that caused the problems at Chrysler in the first place: by neglecting the market and being unable to flex their production capability effectively, regulations from CAFE standards and the EPA would negatively impact the cost of the vehicles sold. Not only were Chrysler's vehicles expensive, they were not selling despite their extremely high marketing overhead. In the era before 'Just In Time' production, this caused back-ups of cars in inventory and the loss due to depreciation as multiple model years were in storage meant that the company would be losing value each and every day a car was not sold. What came into play, however, was the fact that Chrysler was 'too big to fail':

Total GNP loss attributable to a Chrysler bankruptcy was estimated at $32 billion as a worse case scenario and $18-20 billion under the assumption that a healthy redeployment of resources would occur (Riegal, 1979). A large portion of this would be lost tax revenue, estimated at $10 billion (Brill, 1980) or less pessimistically, $6 billion (Riegal, 1979). The loss of tax revenue, plus the extra cost of unemployment benefits were estimated at $16 billion (Bohr, 1979). Less precisely denominated estimates of overall economic loss of between $10 billion and $2.7 billion (USNWR, 1979b) were offered. Any loss would add to a federal deficit, which at this time was just beginning to garner concern. Estimates of this incremental worsening included $2.75 billion for 1980 and 1981 (Whitten, 1979) and $11 billion over a longer time frame (Riegal, 1979). Revenue losses for state and local governments were estimated at $266 million (Whitten, 1979). The various estimates cannot be harmonised or compared due to the reckless, unsupported and casual manner they were presented, invariably providing no clue as to what assumptions were utilised. Nonetheless, the rhetorical power of these numbers was not dependent upon their ability to clarify and inform the decision.

[..]

The primitive economic analysis of isolated facts was another context for the Chrysler decision. The political process was unable to deal with a general equilibrium analysis which required a much more sophisticated set of tools than most that had voice in this debate could appreciate. For these purposes, the science of economics built a general structure that was not accountable. Therefore, more precise accounting data could not be brought to bear on the question of economic impact and the fairness of distributional consequences.

Yes, no one knew how much of a shock a loss of this large company would be to the US! Somehow the non-factoring in of foreign auto sales to replace domestic sales didn't seem to come into play, and the changes in trade balances that would cause. By being unable to evaluate economic activity, examine how the market could flex to the changes and safeguard against the very worst ones, the emotional analysis of Chrysler trumped anything that would be used in the monetary realm. The major worries of reduced federal income and increased unemployment coming just after the era of 'stagflation' would almost certainly guarantee more years of the same. Thus the company, as a system of employment and tax revenue generation had to continue, and the idea that a foreign purchaser could help out had already taken hold, in the company itself:

The most visible acts undertaken by Chrysler before the bailout was the sale of foreign operations. Under its previous leadership, Chrysler had become a multinational automobile producer. Although much money and managerial effort were invested, non-US operations never lived up to expectations. Sale of productive capacity abroad produced some liquidity. However, these transactions' largest contribution was to eliminate debt from the balance sheet (Business Week, 1979c). Other sales were made domestically that reduced Chrysler to an undiversified automotive maker and therefore presented the image of a "pure play" for Congress that would otherwise have been tainted by a diversified conglomerate structure.

Chrysler shed parts that had been a drag on it and sold off its foreign groups as they were a source of the debt that had been piling up. The question is: why did this require Congress to step in? What was provided was a series of loan guarantees to Chrysler which bolstered its backing even while it re-organized. This meant that a bailout was available only if confidence in the restructuring foundered, and if there was renewed confidence that the smaller and streamlined Chrysler would increase, then the guarantees would not be used. This forced a 'middle of the road' between bankruptcy and bailout, as neither were palatable economically. And yet the question still would arise: why is a company too big to fail?

An economic loss of one entity means that the market is now opened up in the areas that it once occupied. Other companies may take advantage of that or the entire market restructure along a new path that is not foreseen at the start of the problem. Saving a company is a form of emotional insurance and an attempt to continue on economic activity as it is as an enforced status quo.

Chrysler did set a precedent, however, and the next 'crisis' would be in the Savings & Loan companies that had moved into areas of competition they were not familiar with and would suffer from that inexperience. As various S&L organizations went insolvent, the threat of a run on them was starting to appear along with long lines of depositors wanting their money. Again, the actual balance sheet and budgetary numbers would be utilized in the political arena with emotion weighing more heavily than actual cost. A special report from Time Magazine on 20 FEB 1989 by Barbara Rudolph would look at this bailout:

One widespread early complaint was that Administration officials, notably Budget Director Richard Darman, were using sleight of hand to downplay the bailout's true cost. Darman originally seemed to say that the cost to taxpayers would total about $40 billion in the first decade, but that number in fact described only how much the plan would aggravate budget deficits. The actual spending from general revenues would be closer to $60 billion. But purely from an accounting standpoint, its impact will be offset by $20 billion in increased insurance-premium fees to be collected from the banking industry -- even though the funds will be earmarked for future banking bailouts rather than for cleaning up the thrifts.

Moreover, financial consultants pointed out that the Administration was projecting the cost of the rescue based on the rosy scenario of a robust economy, declining interest rates and fast-growing thrift deposits. Over the next decade, taxpayers may have to shoulder rescue costs that are tens of billions more dollars than now expected. Yet even those who recognized the Bush plan's shortcomings praised it as the best and boldest solution so far.

A primary objective of such a sweeping rescue was to restore the confidence of thrift depositors, some of whom have withdrawn their savings in fear of the system's insolvency. In fact, the Administration secretly feared a long-shot possibility that the drama of its bailout might spark a run on S & L deposits. To prepare for that dire prospect, senior White House officials and Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan met in the Roosevelt Room of the White House the night before Bush's plan was made public. Greenspan agreed that the Fed would stand ready to pump billions of dollars in emergency loans into threatened thrifts.

In the end, depositors stayed calm, even though some chafed at the idea of the cost of the bailout. "Honestly, it's the stupidest thing I've heard," said Leroy Scrues, a Detroit retiree. "Why should the public be paying for these rich peoples' mistakes?" Yet legislators and savers were relieved that Bush repudiated a proposal that his Administration had floated two weeks earlier: to levy a fee -- 25 cents for each $100 of deposits -- on all insured accounts. That ploy was widely seen as a tax in everything but name. The short-lived proposal was so distasteful that it made Bush's new plan seem all the more palatable. Said Fred Dorey, a Los Angeles medical statistician: "We were going to pay for it one way or another. At least the banks have to pay some too. It's a fair deal."

The healthy portion of the thrift industry will pay its share through an increase in its insurance premiums. The rate would rise from the current $2.08 per $1,000 of deposits to $2.30 from 1991 until 1994, after which it would decline to $1.80. The rate for banks would increase too, from 83 cents per $1,000 to $1.20 in 1990 and $1.50 thereafter. Even though both industries' insurance funds would be administered by the FDIC, their proceeds will be kept separate.

[..]

How did the S & Ls arrive at such a sorry state? Traditionally, running a thrift was a relatively tranquil business. S & L managers used to follow what was known as the 3-6-3 rule: pay depositors 3%, lend money at 6% and tee up at the golf course by 3 p.m. When interest rates remained stable, the strategy worked well. But by the late 1970s, thrifts began steadily losing depositors to the new money-market funds, which were not covered by deposit insurance and paid higher interest rates.

Thrift executives pressured Congress to let them fight back. In 1980 Congress lifted restrictions on interest rates that S & Ls could pay. But regulators waited a year before freeing the other side of the balance sheet by allowing S & Ls to grant adjustable-rate mortgages. The delay left the thrifts in a bind, because interest rates had rocketed from 13% at the end of 1979 to more than 20% a year later. Thrifts were collecting interest rates of around 8% or less on their 30-year mortgages, while paying double-digit interest to new depositors. During 1981 some 85% of all S & Ls were losing money.

Again the politically expedient route was taken, instead of letting the insolvent S&L institutions fail and having the solvent ones bought out by regular banks. Stability in the domestic economy was the goal and that was achieved by walking a line between full government intervention and take-over or letting the market do what it normally does. By 01 OCT 1990 Time Magazine would present an article by John Greenwald on what was going on:

At the height of his power in the Roaring Eighties, Charles Keating commanded an estimated $100 million personal fortune, controlled $1 billion in financial assets and counted a handful of U.S. Senators among his powerful buddies. Last week he stood as a wretched symbol of the past decade's financial follies. After the former owner of California's bankrupt Lincoln Savings and Loan was indicted on 42 counts of criminal fraud and was unable to raise the $5 million bail, police handcuffed and jailed him. California alleges that Keating bilked investors who bought $250 million of now virtually worthless junk bonds. The state's charges were the latest in a flood of legal actions against the disgraced businessman. Overall, taxpayers will have to pay more than $2 billion to clean up the mess left by Lincoln's collapse, one of the costliest in the nation.

Keating was the most visible villain last week in an S&L debacle that could cost Americans as much as $1 trillion, or some $30 a month for every household over the next four decades. In inflation-adjusted dollars, that is nearly twice the cost of the Vietnam War and almost four times the cost of the Korean conflict. So far, the government has seized more than 490 insolvent thrifts, or nearly one-fifth the entire industry. An additional 600 are troubled and may fail.

Even as jail doors slammed behind Keating, who remained in prison pending his arraignment next month, shock waves from the thrift crisis rippled across the U.S. The impact contributed to the budget deadlock in Washington and aggravated the slump in real estate prices in cities glutted with condominiums and office towers. In Denver federal regulators filed a $200 million lawsuit against the President's son Neil Bush and 10 other officials of the failed Silverado S&L, charging them with "gross negligence." Meanwhile, Neil Bush prepared to respond this week to previous federal charges that he abused his role as a Silverado director. In Congress, L. William Seidman, chairman of the Resolution Trust Corporation, asked for at least $100 billion for fiscal 1991 to keep the S&L bailout moving. Only a year ago, regulators had expected that $50 billion would do the job.

While Charles Keating would go behind bars, the actual solution would not provide much more than a temporary stability that would allow the various institutions to actually start to merge and shift into the rest of the normal banking structure. At the International Monetary Fund's Kenneth S. Rogoff would look at what the actual cost of the S&L bailout and looking at a similar one for the IMF in the 2002 SEP edition of Finance & Development:

So what could be the scale of the costs of moral hazard associated with the IMF's operations? First, consider an analogy. In the mid-1930s, the United States became the first country to establish a broad-based system of official insurance for bank deposits. This invention appears to have been a significant factor in the subsequent stability of the U.S. banking system and an important factor in banks' role as an engine of growth. Deposit insurance, like IMF lending, induces some moral hazard. But it was not until the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s that moral hazard engendered any significant fiscal cost. The ultimate cost of the savings and loan bailout amounted to some 3 percent of GDP. Was this such a stiff price for 50 years of stability? Of course, some other countries have fared worse, with bailouts amounting to 10 percent of GDP and more.

The cost of the scandals went beyond the institutions and by the federal government stepping in, that cost was passed on to the US taxpayer. While many would point to this as a 'soft landing' or 'middle of the road' or 'least of all bad results', the question is: why is the US taxpayer funding the poor economic behavior of investors that put money into them without due diligence? If Chrysler was a government backing to get the company to do something it should have already been doing, namely changing its management, outlook and corporate structure, then the S&L bailout was rewarding the negative behavior of investors who only cared about a bottom line return and not about the safety of their investments.

Now, for those with relatively short attention spans, there have been other large companies that faced very hard times and yet were not supported by the federal government. One of those was IBM, who had been a world leader in computing via some very nasty tactics and a powerful global presence, that allowed them to marginalize competitors. What they also did was to start up a small group looking to examine the realm of personal computing, seen mainly as a way to input data more efficiently into mainframes. What that would do, however, is put a start-up group in Boca Raton, FL that would scrabble for a way to get this done. They settled on commodity parts, an open architecture so that other could make pieces to fit into their computer, and an operating system. In each of these realms this group found the ability to execute these ideas and created something that would be the foundation of the IBM PC era. That era would also see a substantial shift in markets away from the monolith that was IBM and serious erode profitability, market-share and put the company at risk.

If IBM executed based on their old views of how to control markets, which was to put out proprietary architectures, such as the PS/2 Microchannel, then the smaller companies executed an extended ISA bus, then VESA, then PCI. By the last IBM was no longer a factor in the industry for components, software or hardware. IBM was forced to finally reconcile their business structure around the profitable areas, which were large scale integration and services, and jettison most of its hardware work to other companies. While it retained the laptop line for some time, the rest of the PC market was essentially ceded to upstarts, and the company actually invented new ways of organizing its sub-structures that were and are revolutionary by creating a continuous adjustment management system that relies on low level knowledge from all parts of the system to adapt the system itself.

What most people fail to realize is that the actual architecture of the PC is based around a microprocessor that, itself, was invented because of the failure of another giant: Fairchild Electronics. With the creation of the integrated circuit behind it, Fairchild could have become a dominant player in control circuit design, if it were not for its management. That management saw a great benefit in not disrupting its market and continuing in its profitable cycle as a market force for ICs. A group of engineers who wanted to do more left Fairchild and founded Intel which itself started to move towards a commodity memory market. What happened, however, is that the engineering basis of the company sought control circuitry for embedded devices as a way of marginally increasing profit. In one design they were asked to price out a central logic circuit for a hand calculator, and they put forward a price for it that was acceptable. What they did, however, was to design a non-dedicated logic chip which could be reprogrammed. That would become the central processing unit of the PC era after a couple of more design cycles and it was that chip that the Project Chess group chose over the more expensive chip from Motorola that Apple was using. Fairchild became footnote in the IC world, while Intel would found a new industry.

Intel, itself, once established, would farm out its older CPU manufacturing overseas to a Taiwanese company called AMD. What AMD would do was utilize more modern fabrication techniques to boost speed and throughput, and compete at the low-end margin of the component business. That remained true until the first rev of 64-bit chips, where AMD used their gained knowledge from designing competition for Intel in the 32-bit market, where its Athlons had taken a small market share, to put out a new 64-bit architecture that was not only different than the Intel design but better. It would be Microsoft, the company that was able to get the original contracts from IBM for the PC, that would be the market dominant force and it would choose which chip to design for. It chose AMD, which was a shock of sorts in the processing world. Although Intel would not suffer significantly from this, its role as market leader and innovator was challenged for the first time in decades. AMD would start to suffer management problems and, while still a market factor, has actually declined somewhat in how the market views it.

Microsoft was the 'Giant Killer' in this arrangement, with a start-up vision stated by Bill Gates in the late 1970's that he wanted a computer on everyone's desk running a Microsoft operating system. The fact that 90% of the world's PCs actually *run* a version of a Microsoft operating system *today* points out where an upstart vision can muscle aside a Giant of the industry and, itself, utilize very similar tactics bordering on the illegal to accomplish those goals. Microsoft would marginalize competitors, actually steal technology (like the Stac disk compression technology), and generally become the New Giant in PCs. One of the things lifted was from Apple computer, which was the graphical user interface. The GUI, however, had its roots starting in a demonstration of graphical computing in the late 1960's and then first instantiated at a market leader in another area.

When Steve Jobs toured the Xerox Palo Alto Research Center (PARC), he saw a vision of computing that actually worked: desktop computers with GUIs, all networked together with Ethernet, and attached to laser printers. Xerox PARC made possible the technology of Local Area Networks, GUI based computing for office work and the devices that would make it all possible.

And then couldn't market them or create them at a reasonable price.

In creating a vision of the future, Xerox had no intention of actually selling that vision, just a few parts of it. Bob Metcalf would take Ethernet with him and revolutionize the PC business, and the GUI would span hundreds of different implementations of which the Apple Macintosh is the best known. Microsoft would lift from that, from other GUIs and from the original ideas at Xerox PARC to create Windows. While starting out as a 'kludge' and still one in many respects, it represents a design legacy that traces its routes to academia and then a large company unable to realize that its vision of a networked office could make it money. Xerox PARC remained a place where visions of the possible future are tried out and some actually investigated a bit more...

The federal government would not step in to save IBM. Nor should it have done so as it served as a nucleus for a new industry that would change its role in the economy and actually increase overall economic production. Even Microsoft has no assured place for all the fact they have helped to make computing easier, and spread the headaches of its platforms to a global scale. Companies do fail, even when still existing, their management may so limit the view of what the company can do that it no longer remains competitive. When Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were set up, the government intruded into the mortgage market to offer underwriting of loans to families. It is questionable as to if that was *ever* needed as it was a response to the Great Depression and changed the basis for what is and is not an acceptable risk to private mortgage lenders. The fact that the American people have realized this and have actively exploited the problems of poor management and political appointees to its own advantage is not putting just these two institutions at risk, but the credibility of the ideas that founded them: that government is the best place to actually *insure* mortgage risks and underwrite them.

If these two organizations are 'too large to fail' then just why have they been let alone to grow so large in their market share for mortgage underwriting? Do we not have Anti-Trust regulations to prevent this and disperse the risk across a broader market both public and private? Or is it the control of that portion of the market for private individuals that government seeks to control, so that those utilizing such mortgages come to rely upon the views of the federal government as to their credit worthiness and not private financial institutions? Just why *is* the federal government better to look at these things which were never given to it in the US Constitution to do?

That 'slippery slope' started by underwriting Chrysler, then bailing out the S&Ls now comes back very hard with the politically corrupting influence of appointees elected by NO ONE and accountable to NO SHAREHOLDER distorting how the public at large views the mortgage market. It is your money that the federal government wants to use to reward bad economic behavior on the part of its appointees and those encouraged to make unwise decisions by those appointees. Perhaps, as the federal government started this mess, it is time for it to get out of the direct market underwriting and manipulation area all together. Because, in the doing of those things, it is now the source of the problem.

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10 July 2008

The unposted things

This is yet in another of sporadic posts on lack of posts! You have to love these things...

Lately my time has been taken up in pre-packing for a future move. The move itself has been indefinitely delayed with one of my cats pulling up with a swollen chamber in his heart. That was caught early but there is no remedy for it and his expected lifespan at this point is sub-six months (on average for those cats with similar conditions). Sudden stress could kill him, and I am unwilling to seek an improvement in my environs that would kill him.

Getting out of Dodge, on the other hand, is the imperative and the more of the long-term material (books and such) that we can get pre-packed around here the faster the final move will be. This process requires some physical effort (even if directing others), the raising of dust which puts my allergies into high gear, and the multitude of decisions that need to be made via triage: pack, leave out, toss? Some items need to be left out - the multi-season clothing selection because it looks like one or two more seasons will be spent here. Other items, like all my 3.5" floppies go away - I can't remember the last time I used a floppy for anything and now mostly use CD/DVD disks or USB sticks/memory devices.

Keeping the active computer base at home operational is one duty that is mine as sysadmin: can't delegate that any time soon. Keeping the Dell notebook I use healthy is one of those deals where one begins to suspect a cosmic ray took out some minor piece of some sub-system that works fine when the system is not under stress. It didn't permanently take it out, just that something causes problems under activity, most likely heat, then bringing the problem out. A bad solder joint could also be the culprit for non-repeatable errors.

After that there is the question of what to do with the two older systems taken out during the 'portability upgrade' phase: two huge towers built on quite good small server cases now sit unused. One has a motherboard that went kaput back when I was still getting the effects of my medication problem causing my catalepsy and severe fatigue problems. I trusted on my mind to chase down the best way to make my current main system while that old one failed in ways most likely due to the motherboard. Upon further review that system's problems are due wholly to the motherboard (an old Abit one with IDE RAID built-in). The other system is even older, dating back from the late 1990's and having been put to use for my lady's netsurfing. I'm looking to see if my niece or her mother would like for me to do a quick system build in the cases, stripping out nearly everything and keeping the case as a basis for a new system. I do adore those cases from Supermicro (the old SC-750A) and I bought two of them at the time. My old main machine that was housed in one of those had 11 hard drives, CD burner and floppy on board, and didn't sound like a jet aircraft ready for take-off when in use. More the dull roar of a DC-3. As I paid well for them and have gotten good service, I am loathe to let them go out for the scrap heap - there are better cases these days, but none that have gotten my respect like those two.

Also on the computer front is my ancient A900i Elitegroup Desknnote or iBuddie. Currently I am doing a parts scrounge for the best possible components to give it a final upgrade and will most likely send it in-family for use. I can think of a couple of individuals in need of basic portable computing for net surfing but no real need of a full-blown modern notebook/laptop. That should go pretty quickly, and I am only waiting for a new CPU, the old stuff still works, but it might as well go as fast as the system can handle for end-of-lifecycle.

Reading! Beyond the latest Grantville Gazettes in the 1632 series, plus novels, I have also gotten through Mark Steyn's Face of the Tiger and America Alone, Jonah Goldberg's Liberal Fascism, Michael Yon's Moment of Truth in Iraq and about half-way through Ray Robison's Both in One Trench. Excellent works, and Kenneth Timmerman's The French Betrayal of America is serving as the bridge piece for reading between the early 1990's to pre-2001 in keeping track of just how much the 'New World Order' deteriorated. I should probably read it cover-to-cover, but it is such a handy reference work that I will probably get to that point after having read major portions of it out of order.

My video watching has backed up. Still holding the last few episodes of Sledge Hammer! in reserve, but have Police Squad to back that up. Pat Dollard's Outside the Wire has gotten lost in the shuffle of being exhausted in the evenings (like most of my other video watching) and that I do need to view when I can get some energy together. After that I finally got my hands on the live-action Flash series, which did not last out a season - currently it is at or near the top of my list for highly realistic live action superheroic presentations... with that said I didn't get to see Iron Man, The Hulk's recent film and will try to get to see the next Batman film. I am not much for going out to movies as having time, energy, concentration and staying awake are all problems... and no theater serves a decent cup of coffee so that has to come in with me from outside. In general there have been a few films I wanted to see, but just never did get to seeing them... ones that do benefit from a large screen.

HDTV? Back-burner and will let the cable company keep the analog going. If I am stuck with *only* Hi-Def after the move, then a new TV is in order... actually that old Sony beast I have is wonderful, but it weighs some godawful amount that I can't really do much with. Any replacement will be flatscreen and light. Back burnered for now.

Ah, writing. Actually, I am doing some fiction work out here in the middle of nowhere, mostly for personal amusement purposes. The main idea centers on the Star Trek universe post-whateverthehellthelastawfulmoviewas and will explore an idea that came to me a few weeks ago. One of my main complaints with ST is that the Enterprise is, actually, not so interesting as things go. The episodic format played into a problematical situations and never looked at the wider view of the entire universe. Here is where ST meets SF and the 1632 series is proof-positive that excellent stories come from a consistent historical timeline.

Star Trek's chronology sucks.

From all accounting there are at least two if not three major timelline variants that contradict each other in pretty stark ways. The recent Enterprise series actually made things *worse* not better as the producers steadfastly refused to stick to known historical points given in the The Original Series and even Next Gen. You can reconcile things to a certain extent, but claiming that the USS Republic had a nuclear 'pile', as seen in 'Court Martial' and then to go into ST:IV and have the fission 'dalliance' limited to the end-20th and early 21st century is a non-starter. That is not even addressing the question of 'was the Eugenics War a World War?' or just how, exactly, do you have such good warp-drive technology and then get the 'sub-light war' with the Romulans? Those can be answered, but not glibly, not quickly and not without some pretty nasty thinking into the types of logistics and supply systems for something like faster-than-light interstellar war. Unfortunately, each successor series, to try and get some 'authenticity' then goes on to *ignore* the historical problems and layer in additional ones.

While you might get a good episode out of that, you have just broken with an ordered and established history in a major way and *that* is lethal to continuity between episodes and for the entire universe. And I won't even go into the harsh divide seen between the likes of Cyrano Jones and Harry Mudd with the non-explained economic system of the Federation... I figure it is some interior military deal with Star Fleet that utilizes 'credits' and then has to have an exchange system for the real economy we never get to see. Yeah, I don't buy Picard's advanced economic theory as he couldn't even explain it - it is either socialism (with all of its attendant problems) or so complex that it defies easy description (like Russia's current mess). I prefer the Fleet-interior credit system having to interface with the real world system for ease of discussion.

Then there are the things not explicitly stated, but that must be true: starships are relatively easy to upgrade once you have the construction bases made. The only reason to cycle starships out of service is due to damage or structural deficiencies that only show up over time. As seen with the Republic, it was of a class of Heavy Cruiser from *before* the Constitution class and yet was upgraded TO the Constitution class. That means that a ship design type may have a 'class' of new builds, but then it also covers a broader category of similar ships with similar capabilities to a high degree, but that have non-similar history. As starships don't get barnacles, much in the way of exterior corrosion and the other ill-effects of ships at sea, they have an effective life span limited to its components and superstructure. We saw that between the time period from TOS to ST:I - USS Enterprise was taken in for a refit/upgrade, not newly built. Coming from the old analog, face-to-face game of Star Fleet Battles, I give that classification to be an 'X-class cruiser'. What that means is that every ship built since the Enterprise series to the last timeline film allows the Fleet to accumulate vessels.

Which is why I prefer the original timeline of warp capable for movement but not for combat types of ships that would typify the Earth-Romulan War. That is an interesting universe and has some very, very old ships still in service, although few of them continually as there must be some of the 'waiting in line for upgrade' problem seen between TOS and ST:I.

Actually Paramount should just hire JMS from Babylon 5 to create a coherent timeline and then have a studio decree: from this you do not waiver. Absent that, the individual writing about non-canonical characters in non-canonical settings is left up to their own devices... which is why the ST novels are, generally, awful.

All of these thoughts from the 1970's to the present that I have had on ST then come into play when I attempt to write something in that universe. Perforce it is non-canonical. I am tired of the Enterprise and her crew... give them a rest as they are not that interesting in the long-haul. And when taking a genius within that universe who is admitted to be one many times over inside that universe and who goes through a psychological breakdown, as happened in that universe, then what do you expect to find of his actual work that went awry when the Fleet finally deems it can't figure it out and is a museum piece... 130 or so years later?

That probably has limited viewer interest and is far lower than my normal readership... but for self-amusement it is interesting as I get to sort out some of the problems in the timeline, gloss others over (who doesn't?) and then see just how deep a genius the man was. Could he create something that no one else, in 130 years, can duplicate without his ability to explain it as sanity (via those really lovely devices that just set everything 'right') was imposed and venturing into that research area was a non-starter for him? That is a fun possibility to explore and points out yet *another* piece of the canon's history that really needs examination as it is obvious that *nothing* came of that one research project for the longer term as everything is derivative of his earlier work, not his later work.

As an individual who ran role-playing games as 'worlds' or 'self-contained universes', that is right up my alley as the things happening in that universe for my players was based on the wider context of what everyone *else* was doing. I am fully used to thinking in terms of long timelines, deep history and how to work them. My ability to write characters and dialogue is pretty sparse, as well as do emotional/romance plotlines. I have the heart of a romantic... in formaldehyde in a jar on my desk. And going by the 'write what you know' arena means that I get to write a story from the perspective of weekly meetings of a project... and anyone who goes to staff meetings knows how those go.

On the political side: just how fast can Barack Obama collapse his base? Or John McCain? They are both positing to their bases that they have 'nowhere else to go'. America is heading into a crisis of representational democracy and the problem is that the ideological 'base' on the Left and Right are now finding that they are being used by those who seek the fascistic and now non-existent 'center'. The center already dropped out of US politics - that started in 1964-68. What happens if the 'base' of each party starts to not show up? The center is already pulling the Nation to sub-50% turnout which will get true and absolute minority government... that is neither 'of, by or for the people' by definition. American society, pre-1776, held through 1775-77 to allow a new formulation of government to be cast into place.

Which failed in 1786-87.

Again society upheld the ideals that bound the people together and by 1789 a new system to uphold those ideals was put in place... but the warning signs of the problems *of it* were deeply discussed and we are now seeing the sign posts of those warnings showing up. The center has actually held and expanded as seen by the non-participation of a large plurality soon to be majority.

It is *government* that will not hold or will go authoritarian in an attempt to hold its seat of power.

The elite cities cannot impose rule on the countryside. And the countryside needs to logistics of the cities to exist in a stable form. That dynamic was present before the Revolution, nearly brought down the Nation under the Articles of Confederation, and have been an ongoing dynamic ever since. Can a new outlook and compromise be reached by this society that has been so divided by its political elites that the only commonality is in the detestation *of* those elite politicians?

That last happened in 1787.

The form may seem different, but the underlying causes are still there and a new compact between the parts of society must come out of it. And it is not one that will want *more* government as that center has been dropping out as government has gotten ever larger... ever worse... ever more beholden to a small class of elites. And it is that center which stands far, far away from Barack Obama and John McCain: they can't even find it.

Sphere: Related Content

06 July 2008

A taste of Oil For Food and its chefs

Lets start at the front and work backwards, and this with an article by John Fund on 03 MAR 2008 on Obama and Chicago Mores seen at the Wall Street Journal and Jewish World Review also printed at on the same day:

Mr. Obama has admitted that the 2005 land deal that he and Mr. Rezko were involved in was a "boneheaded" mistake, in part because his friend was already rumored to be under federal investigation. The newly elected Mr. Obama bought his $1.65 million home on the same day, June 15, that Mr. Rezko's wife bought the plot of land next to it from the same seller for $625,000. Seven months later she sold a slice of the land to the trust that Mr. Obama had put the house into, so the senator could expand his garden.

Mr. Obama has strenuously denied suggestions that the same-day sale enabled him to pay $300,000 under the house's asking price because Mrs. Rezko paid full price for the adjoining lot, or that he asked the Rezkos for help in the matter. Both actions would be clear violations of Senate ethics rules barring the granting or asking of favors.

Still, there are anomalies. Mr. Obama admits that he and Mr. Rezko took a tour of the house before it and the adjoining plot were sold. Financial records given to federal prosecutors a year later show Mrs. Rezko had a salary of only $37,000 and assets of $35,000. In court proceedings at that time, to explain how much his bail should be, Mr. Rezko declared that he had "no income, negative cash flow, no liquid assets."

So where did the money for Mrs. Rezko's $125,000 down payment — and the collateral for her $500,000 loan from a local bank controlled by Amrish Mahajan, like Mr. Rezko a Chicago political fixer — come from?

The London Times reports that, three weeks before the land transactions, Nadhmi Auchi, an Iraqi billionaire living in London, loaned $3.5 million to Mr. Rezko, who was his Chicago business partner. Mr. Auchi's office says he had "no involvement in or knowledge of" the property purchase. Mr. Auchi is a press-shy property developer (estimated worth: $4 billion) who was convicted of corruption in France in 2003 for his involvement in the Elf affair, the biggest political and corporate fraud inquiry in Europe since World War II. He was fined $3 million and given a 15-month prison term that was suspended provided he committed no further crimes.

Mr. Auchi was also a top official in the Iraqi oil ministry in the 1970s. He has for years vigorously denied charges he had dealings with Saddam Hussein after the first Gulf War. However, an official report to the Pentagon inspector general in 2004 obtained by the Washington Times cited "significant and credible evidence" of involvement by Mr. Auchi's companies in the Oil for Food scandal and illicit smuggling of weapons to the Hussein regime.

In 2003, Mr. Auchi began investing in Chicago real estate with Mr. Rezko. In April 2007, after his indictment, Mr. Auchi loaned another $3.5 million to Mr. Rezko, a loan that Mr. Rezko hid from U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald's office. When Mr. Fitzgerald learned that the money was being parceled out to Mr. Rezko's lawyers, family and friends, he got Mr. Rezko's bond revoked in January and had him put in jail as a potential flight risk.

In court papers, the prosecutor noted that Mr. Rezko had traveled 26 times to the Middle East between 2002 and 2006, mostly to his native Syria and other countries that lack extradition treaties with the U.S. Curiously, Mr. Auchi has also lent an unknown sum of money to Chris Kelly, who, like Mr. Rezko, was a significant fund-raiser for Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (himself under investigation by a federal grand jury as an alleged beneficiary of the Rezko shakedowns). Mr. Kelly is himself under indictment for obstructing an IRS probe into his activities.

It is hard to have a spotless image when working with folks someone being tied to the problems of Oil-For-Food monetary accountability problems shows up in US Federal Court and the Pentagon Inspector General's report. A Malaysia Today Special Report on OFF looks at how the banking part of the system was set up, as part of their report which concentrates on more localized wrong-doing, but needs to set the context of the entire OFF deal for that:

Background and design

The program was instituted to relieve the extended suffering of civilians as the result of the comprehensive sanctions on Iraq from the UN, following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August 1990. After an initial refusal, Iraq signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) in May 1996 for arrangements for the implementation of that resolution to be taken.

The Oil-for-Food Programme started in October 1997, and the first shipments of food arrived in March 1998. Some 60 percent of Iraq's 26 million people were solely dependent on rations from the oil-for-food plan.

The programme used an escrow system: oil exported from Iraq was paid for by the recipient into an escrow account possessed until 2001 by BNP Paribas bank, rather than to the Iraqi government (Anglo-Iraqi billionaire Nadhmi Auchi is BNP Paribas major single shareholder through his firm General Mediterranean Holdings). The money was then apportioned to pay for war reparations to Kuwait and ongoing coalition and United Nations operations within Iraq, with the remainder (and majority of the revenue) available to the Iraqi government for use in purchasing regulated items.

The Iraqi government was then permitted to purchase items that were not embargoed under the economic sanctions. Certain items, such as raw foodstuffs, were expedited for immediate shipment, but requests for most items, including such simple things as pencils and folic acid, were reviewed in a process that typically took about six months before shipment was authorised. Items deemed to have any potential application in chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons systems development were not available to the regime, regardless of what their stated purpose was.

This confirms an earlier NYT article of 30 APR 2003:

BNP Paribas said that it had had no contact with Mr. Auchi since it was formed in 2000 from the merger of Banque Nationale de Paris and Paribas, and that Mr. Auchi was uninvolved in the bank's management or shareholder relations. It also said that BNP had secured the oil-for-food account before its merger with Paribas and that Mr. Auchi played no part in winning the account.

BNP Paribas added that its participation in the oil-for-food program was the result of competitive bidding and that the United States Treasury had approved its participation.

''We believe we were appointed by the U.N. for this contract because they were looking for a large European financial institution and we are the largest bank in continental Europe,'' BNP Paribas said in a statement. ''The oil-for-food program revenues represent about one-tenth of 1 percent of the total revenues of our company. It has no significant influence on our size or our level of profitability.''

Mr. Auchi, who declined to be interviewed for this article, holds his stake in BNP Paribas through a Luxembourg concern he controls called General Mediterranean Holdings. As recently as 2001, General Mediterranean Holdings described itself in an annual report as one of largest single shareholders in BNP Paribas.

Mr. Auchi's London lawyer, David Corker, said that since 2001 General Mediterranean Holdings had reduced its BNP Paribas stake to about 0.4 percent of the bank's total shares, about half of the position he held before then. That stake would still make Mr. Auchi one of the bank's biggest single shareholders. Mr. Corker said his client had ''never knowingly had any business dealings with the Hussein regime.''

Mr. Auchi first became involved with Paribas, the predecessor to BNP Paribas, in the 1970's. He also played a central role in the 2000 merger of Paribas and BNP, helping to steer Paribas away from a merger with a rival concern.

In 1996, according to European news accounts, Belgium's ambassador to Luxembourg charged that Banque Continentale du Luxembourg, a bank that Mr. Auchi and Paribas jointly controlled until 1994, had handled personal accounts for Mr. Hussein.

After that the report would look at the sales of Italian naval vessels with the help of Mr. Auchi which would be brought up in an Italian organized crime crackdown by a banker, Pierfrancesco Pacini Battaglia, who would also assert that Mr. Auchi was an important intermediary for Middle Eastern countries. So, even though no shares are held directly by Mr. Auchi, his control of General Mediterranean Holdings and its investment in BNP-Paribas leaves him as the largest single shareholder at the time of OFF.

Part of this network that would come together is pre-existing as cited by Kenneth R. Timmerman in The French Betrayal of America, published 2004, which looks at Saving Saddam in chapter 12, and I will excerpt a bit from pp. 230-231 and the TotalFinaElf scandal that would go on parallel to the OFF scandal:

Maugein’s close ties to Chirac were also well known to Loik LeFloch-Prigent, the president and CEO of French state-owned oil company Elf-Aquitaine, who was jailed in 1995 and again in 2002 on corruption charges. In his often bitter and self-exculpatory memoir, Affaire Elf, Affaire d’Etat, LeFloch-Prigent claims that Maugein played a role in several commercial projects in which Elf was accused by investigative magistrate Renaud Van Ruymbeke of distributing kickbacks to French political parties and their leaders.

One of those deals – the purchase of the Spanish oil refinery Ertoil in 1990 – was the handiwork of an Iraqi businessman named Nadhmi Auchi, who later became a target of the worldwide hunt for Saddam Hussein’s hidden assets that was spearheaded by Wall Street investigator, Jules Kroll. Auchi’s main venture was a Luxembourg-based holding company called General Mediterranean Holdings (GMH), He was named in a June 16, 1988 Italian parliament investigation as one of two intermediaries who helped broker a $1.6 billion deal for Cantieri Navali Riuniti of Italy to sell six “Lupo” class frigates to Iraq in 1980, an activity that generated a $23 million payment to Auchi’s Dowal Corporation, according to company documents discovered by the Italian Guardia di Finanza. Neither the Italian parliament or the Kroll investigation established that Auchi had violated existing laws or that he was sheltering Iraqi government assets, despite alleged ties to Saddam Hussein’s half-brother Barzan Ibrahim al-Tikriti, a former Iraqi intelligence chief (Auchi today denies he had any relationship to Barzan). GMH bought the Ertoil refinery on Elf’s behalf in late 1990 and resold it to Elf a few months later at a profit of at least 300 million French francs. French prosecutors were investigating claims that some of that money had been distributed to French political parties.[v]

Everyone knows there were strong ties, longstanding ties, between expatriate Iraqis and the RPR,” LeFloch-Prigent explained. “That party has a president, whose name is Jacques Chirac. Chirac knows Saddam Hussein, who knows Auchi.” If you wanted to understand the ties between Chirac, Auchi, Iraq and Elf, LeFloch-Prigent said, the man to see was Patrick Maugein, whose name was “inseparable from that of Chirac.” Maugein “was very much involved in oil, from Iraq to Africa. Today he heads a British oil company, SOCO.” Asked by co-author Eric Découty whether he was implying that Auchi had financed Chirac’s political activities through Maugein, LeFloch-Pringent replied evasively: “I’m saying that the subject of investigation is the following: trace the links from the Iraqis – both abroad, and inside Iraq – to the RPR. Nadhmi Auchi is part of the Iraqi diaspora… If the prosecutors want to really investigate the money Auchi is said to have distributed, they may find the RPR which Chirac headed.”[vi]

But Maugein insists that he never knew Auchi, was never involved in fund-raising on Chirac’s behalf, and “had never met or sought to meet Saddam.” Auchi also denies any involvement in the alleged fund-raising scheme. Crossley noted, correctly, that LeFloch-Prigent never pursued the more startling “revelations” contained in his book when he took the witness stand during his public trial. Maugein freely admits that he traveled often to Baghdad in the 1980s, when Iraq was a major economic partner of France. Even after the first Gulf war, he told Le Canard Enchainé, he went to Baghdad “more than once as an emissary for Chirac,” who was then Mayor of Paris.

Maugein has never sought to hide his friendly relationship with Tariq Aziz and the top management of Iraq’s oil ministry, or that he considers Iraq “part of [his] business,”Crossley says. During the UN embargo, Maugein sent a shipment of free medicine to Iraq “because there was a humanitarian problem there.” He also introduced Tariq Aziz to LeFloch-Prigent when he became president of Elf, “because there was a dispute over fields the Iraqis wanted to take away from the French and give to the Russians.” Maugein’s intercession appears to have been successful, since the Iraqis announced in January 1999 that they had signed a production sharing agreement with Elf-Aquitaine for the Majnoon oil fields that was nearly as generous as the $40 to $60 billion deal negotiated earlier with Total for Nahr Umr.[vii] . “Patrick maintained these contacts during the embargo in the belief that when the embargo was lifted it would be useful to his London-based oil company, in which American interests were also represented,” Crossley says.

Moving back to the OFF scandal, in a 2006 GAO Audit of OFF, in Appendix III, they go through the min/max that was made illicitly via the program and smuggling, which would include surcharges on oil sales ( $230k to $900k), commodity purchase kickbacks to the regime ( $1.5 million to $3.5 million) and smuggling/trading outside the OFF program ($5.7 million to $8.4 million). The totals range from a minimum estimate of $7.3 million to $12.8 million during the years 1997 to 2002. Those min/max numbers come from looking at multiple reports on the problems of the OFF program. In testimony by Mark L. Greenblatt, Counsel US Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations given on 15 NOV 2004, we get to see how the surcharge portion of this works:

In mid-2000, Hussein directed SOMO to generate additional revenues outside the Oil-for-Food Program. Pursuant to that directive, on September 1, 2000, SOMO began lowering the price of oil and demanding a ‘‘surcharge’’ of 10 cents a barrel for each barrel exported from Iraq.

Over the succeeding months, the rate of the surcharge fluctuated widely, reaching a peak of roughly 30 cents a barrel. Exports to the United States had a higher surcharge than shipments elsewhere in the world. These surcharges were to be paid by the oil purchaser directly to the regime, illegally bypassing the UN-controlled escrow account at BNP Paribas.

As a result, many of the traditional oil companies refused to pay the surcharges. Out of the shadows, however, came numerous unknown middle-men that were quite eager to participate in the scheme. The scheme continued on for 2 years, until the United States and the UK, as members of the Subcommittee overseeing the program, took action to end it. The device they used was called retroactive pricing.

For the sake of brevity, I will not get into detail concerning what retroactive pricing is, but suffice it to say that retroactive pricing was completely effective in ending the surcharges. Over that 2-year period that the surcharges were in effect, Saddam amassed more than $230 million in the scheme. Every single one of those dollars was obtained under the table, outside the OFF Program. I will now present a behind-the-scenes look at how those dollars went into Saddam’s coffers.
These funds would, indeed, bypass BNP-Paribas, but that is not to say BNP-Paribas was not involved. Later in his testimony he will detail how a particular transaction would work out:

Al-Hoda purchased 4 million barrels of oil in connection with contract M/09/15 under the Oil-for-Food Program and sold half of that oil, 2 million barrels, to the American company. According to page 2 of the contract between Al-Hoda and the American company, which is page 2 of the exhibit, there was a 40-cent markup on the official selling price per barrel.

Interestingly, the payment mechanism for this oil contract was divided in three parts. I will direct your attention to the last paragraph on the bottom of page 2. That paragraph describes a payment ‘‘inside the letter of credit,’’ which refers to the approved letter of credit within the Oil-for-Food Program where the funds would go to BNP Paribas.

Moving up to the next paragraph, the second to last paragraph on the page, there is a payment of 10 cents a barrel ‘‘outside the letter of credit’’ at the instruction of Al-Hoda.

Moving up to the third paragraph from the bottom, there is another payment outside the letter of credit, this one for 30 cents per barrel. The Subcommittee will demonstrate how that 30-cent payment outside the letter of credit was, in reality, an illegal surcharge to the Hussein regime.

Moving on to the third page of this exhibit, it is a handwritten sheet of paper by the oil buyer which confirmed that the 40-cent fee is broken down into two separate payments, a 10-cent letter of credit to Al-Hoda and an identified 30-cent payment. The question remains, where is that 30-cent payment going?

The next document in the exhibit is an invoice from Al-Hoda requesting payment for the 40-cent markup which amounts to roughly $836,000. This $836,000 includes the mystery 30-cent-per-barrel fee.

The next document in this exhibit is the order from the oil company to its bank, which just happens to be the Geneva affiliate of BNP Paribas, to make the payment of $836,000.

The next document in this exhibit is an excerpt from the oil company’s accounting ledger that confirms that a payment to Al-Hoda for $836,000 from the company’s BNP Paribas account was actually paid.

So how do we know that the $836,000 payment included a 30- cent surcharge to Iraq? The Subcommittee has obtained SOMO records that provide detailed information about each surcharge payment that was received. Included in this chart is a 30-cent payment from Al-Hoda for this very contract.

If I could direct your attention to Exhibit 19,1 this is an excerpt of the chart created by SOMO in February 2004 that details each oil contract in which a surcharge was paid. The column headers, which are in Arabic and therefore read from right to left, are as follows: Phase, contracting company, contract number, amount of oil lifted, amount of surcharge owed—I am sorry—amount of oil lifted, and then that is the surcharge rate is the fifth column, the amount of surcharge owed, the amount of surcharge paid, and finally is the difference, the balance owed on the surcharge.

If we look at the entry on the chart for Al-Hoda’s contract M/09/ 15, which falls roughly in the middle of the page, we see that Al- Hoda agreed to pay a surcharge of 30 cents per barrel. Therefore, it appears that the mystery 30-cent fee did indeed reflect an illegal surcharge payment to the Hussein regime.

From Al-Hoda to BNP-Paribas to Saddam Hussein. Presented in documentary form to the US Senate, and indeed, such had been presented earlier to the House and Senate. Somewhere in there 'due diligence' was lost.

The Independent Inquiry Committee looked at the goings on with BNP before it joined up with Paribas, in Chapter 4 of its final report (the Volcker Commission report) and looked at the conflict of interest problem of BNP:

One highly significant provision of the Banking Agreement allowed BNP not only to confirm letters of credit issued by other banks for oil purchases, but also to “issue [letters of credit] directly as the Purchaser’s Bank on behalf of its customers who are approved purchasers of Iraqi petroleum and petroleum products.” BNP frequently availed itself of this option—either directly or through subsidiaries and affiliates, principally BNP’s offices in Geneva, Switzerland, which together issued approximately three-fourths of all letters of credit for oil transactions during the Programme.719

For BNP, already a major provider of financial services for the oil sector, the opportunity to issue a letter of credit in the first instance rather than simply to confirm a letter of credit issued by another bank meant that BNP acquired a second customer, and with it, the possibility for a conflict of interest with its primary customer—the United Nations. BNP operated during the Programme through various branches, subsidiaries, and affiliates, including BNP New York, the branch responsible for maintaining the escrow account. These other branches, subsidiaries, and affiliates will hereinafter be referenced by the designation “BNP,” followed by the location of the branch, subsidiary, or affiliate (e.g. BNP Geneva, BNP Hong Kong, and BNP New York).

In having this capability BNP not only could ensure that other banks stood behind credit lines for Iraqi oil purchases, but then could issue its *own* credit lines: this is beyond an 'oversight' role and directly participating in the assurance structure itself. Instead of acting as a trusted intermediary to ensure that sufficient cash was available for backing up individuals in OFF, BNP could, itself, back those oil sales on its own say-so with no oversight. By issuing those credit lines to individuals, and taking those individuals on as customers, the ability to ensure credit worthiness was left up to an institution that was backing its own customers in the deal. How could anyone ensure that any given individual was checked for trustworthiness when the bank, itself, had no one to ensure that *it* was not circumventing that very same trust arrangement?

Beyond the kickback system as evidenced in things like the Al-Hoda deal going through various accounts, and issuing its own, unchecked lines of credit, there was yet another problem with BNP during the OFF, and that is looked at a bit further on in Chapter 4:

Although many purchases of Iraqi oil under the Programme were the result of direct transactions between the purchaser as the contracting party, and SOMO as the seller of oil, numerous other transactions were infused by the addition of third parties that financed the purchases of oil for the contracting party and ultimately received the oil from the original purchaser.739 These companies will be referred to throughout as “third-party purchasers.” One of the reasons given by staff members of BNP Geneva for intercession of a third party in such transactions was that contract holders who obtained the right to buy oil from SOMO often did not have sufficient credit to finance the purchase, nor the technical expertise to fulfill the obligations of the oil transaction (i.e., to charter a ship to lift the oil and deliver it to a refinery). Therefore, the contracting party turned to established oil traders and oil companies with capability to receive the requisite financing from a financial institution.740 On the other hand, as discussed in Chapter One of this Report, a more nefarious purpose for an oil trader or oil company to purchase oil from a contractor rather than directly from SOMO was to maintain an apparent distance from the payment of any illicit oil surcharges.

BNP Geneva financed many letters of credit within the Programme on behalf of third-party purchasers. Often, the third-party purchaser requested BNP Geneva to withhold any mention of its company’s name from the letter of credit, as illustrated in the figure below showing such a request by Vitol in connection with the purchase of oil in the name of Al-Rasheed International:741

Al Rasheed payment

Figure: Sample instruction requesting that the Bank not disclose the financer’s identity in the letter of credit (excerpt).

BNP Geneva did not disclose the third-party purchaser involvement to its own affiliate in New York that received all letters of credit for the United Nations; nor did it disclose to the United Nations itself. When interviewed, employees of BNP Geneva explained that these financing arrangements, and the non-disclosure of the purchasing entity’s identity, were routine in the oil trade business. These officials offered three reasons for this practice: (1) that the third-party purchaser client requested non-disclosure; (2) that the disclosure would cause complications to the confirmation process and would place the letter of credit in a position of likely rejection by the beneficiary if a name other than the purchaser was identified; and (3) that disclosure might violate Swiss bank secrecy laws.742

Here the conflict of interest of leveraging its own resources to back individuals and companies combines with companies unwilling to be directly named due to the types of schemes being used to bypass the OFF structure. Through two means there are now ways to remove assurance that those seeking to sell oil could be properly accounted for and if BNP stood up its own money and the individual wanted to be a third-party purchaser, then there would be no way to find out who was making the purchase at *all*. One part of BNP would hide this from another part of BNP to make this happen.

Now we are getting a look at this after BNP-Paribas formed up from its constituents: BNP and Paribas Bank. One of the shareholders on the Paribas side was someone I quite did not expect to see, here seen from the 1997 Paribas financial report, of who is sitting on the Supervisory Board and on the Compensation Committee:

Paul Desmarais (2)
Age 71. Chairman of the Executive
Committee of Power Corporation

(Canada). Member of the Boards
of Great-West, Bruxelles-Lambert,
C LT- U FA and Axa-UAP.
Member since September 27, 1990.
Mandate expiring in 2000.
Owner of 230 Paribas shares.

And a bit further in:

POWER CORP. Power Corp., 2.1% owned by Cobepa, is a Canadian company, whose largest shareholder is the family of Mr. Paul Desmarais Sr. It is active in insurance (Great-West Life), asset management (Investors), media and communications, and holds a 25% interest in Pargesa. In 1997, Power Corp. became Canada’s largest life insurer, through the successful acquisition of London Life for CAD 2.94 billion.

PARGESA Switzerland-based Pargesa , 14.7% owned by Cobepa and 50% owned by the Frère and Desmarais groups, holds interests in Belgium’s Groupe Bruxelles Lambert. Through this company, it exercises a significant influence over Petrofina in the oil sector, Compagnie Luxembourgeoise de Télédiffusion (CLT, 50% owned by Bertelsmann) in the media sector, and Imetal in construction materials. A key development of 1997 was the sale of its interest in Banque Bruxelles Lambert, as part of the public exchange offer launched by ING Groep, generating substantial capital gains.

Have to love those company ownership documents. Ok, find a search engine of your choice and put in: 'desmarais' and 'scandal'! Yes it is just that easy...

Here is a Newsmax article by Charles R. Smith on 18 JAN 2005,on the OFF scandal and BNP-Paribas, and remember that Nadhmi Auchi is cited as the largest minority investor so it would help to know the majority investor and that the combined company formed up in 2000:

BNP Paribas

Top among these is the European-based BNP Paribas bank, which the U.N. chose to administer the program and which reportedly received nearly $1 billion for its efforts. Congressional investigators reviewing the bank's actions have discovered broken rules, missing documents and improper transfers by BNP Paribas, which up until now has been assumed to be a French bank.

In fact, BNP Paribas is actually controlled by Power Corporation, an appropriately named Canadian company that has a shocking track record of 'business' relationships with the worst gangsters and tyrannical regimes in the world.

[..]

BNP Paribas bank is part of a holding company, Pargesa Holding, which is jointly owned and controlled by the Frère and Desmarais families. Paul Desmarais Sr. is the chairman of the group, while Albert Frère is the vice-chairman. Gerald Frère, Albert's son, is one of three general managers who oversee day-to-day operations, and Paul Desmarais Jr. is also an officer.

Pargesa, and thus Power Corporation and the Canadian Desmarais family, holds a controlling significant stake in TotalFina Elf, the Belgian-French petroleum multinational corporation formed from the merger of Total and Petrofina.

BNP Paribas and TotalFina may have blood-stained corporate histories, but the intimate and intricate connections of Power Corp. to Canada's governing elite raise the truly disturbing questions.

Power Corporation CEO Andre Desmarais is the son-in-law of former Prime Minister Jean Chretien, who went out of his way to oppose U.S. intervention in Iraq, where the family's business interests with the Saddam regime would be jeopardized.

Current Canadian PM Paul Martin is a former Power Corporation employee who made his fortune when he bought Canada Steamship Lines from Power Corp. aided by loans from Power Corp. To this day both CSL and Power are reported to have mutual equity interests in each other.

The most senior foreign affairs/international trade adviser to current Canadian PM Paul Martin is Maurice Strong, former CEO of Power Corp. and a longtime U.N. and Kofi Annan adviser.

You see, there gets to be a reason why things fall together here: Saddam naming BNP and Paribas as two of the banking institutions he would trust to handle funds in 1997, an ex-Iraqi oil minister in one company, a rich Canadian with investments in Iraq in another and the two form into one company. And Paul Desmarais goes from minor owner in Paribas to majority owner with the Frère family. And from the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security there is this bit from their Energy Security section on 21 APR 2003 after they examine the corruption in France around TotalFinaElf:

In 2001, TotalFinaElf signed an agreement with Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein allowing the firm to develop 25 per cent of Iraq’s oil fields. TotalFinaElf largest single shareholder, Canadian Paul Desmarais', youngest son Andre is married to Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien's daughter France. Desmarais son Paul Jr., CEO of Montreal Power Corp., a firm whose annual revenues exceed 18 billion Canadian dollars, sits on the French oil company’s board of directors.

William F. Jasper at a FindArticles cache of The New American on 07 MAR 2005 would look at the 'conflict of interest' problems of Paul Volcker who headed up the Independent Inquiry Committee to look at the UN OFF scandal and comes up with one very interesting tie:

Volcker has ties to the Desmarais family and Power Corporation, the huge Canadian conglomerate at the heart of the oil-for-food scandal. Volcker sat on the international advisory board of Power Corp. with Paul Desmarais, St., while Paul Desmarais, Jr. and Andre Desmarais served as co-CEOs. The Desmarais family and other Power Corp. execs and directors are also major players in BNP Paribas, the bank that underwrote most of the oil-forfood scam, and TotalFinaElf, France's largest oil company and a multi-billion dollar contractor with Saddam's regime.

So, whenever the IIC is brought up, remember that a previous co-worker at the advisory board of a company owned by those being investigated was heading up the thing. Yes, even in their own reporting they had to actually tell what they saw as going on, like in the Chapter 4 excerpts previously. That isn't the only connection of Volcker with Paul Desmarais, however, as seen on 28 JAN 2005 at FoxNews.com, looking at Paul Volcker's background [bolding in the original]:

While few, if any, are questioning the integrity of the man heading the Independent Inquiry Committee, there is concern about his personal and professional interests that create an appearance at least of impropriety, which some on Capitol Hill say fits the definition of conflict of interest.

Volcker acted as a paid adviser — and remains an adviser — to a company that is closely linked to Total, the French oil giant that bought $1.75 billion of oil from Iraq under the Oil-for-Food (search) program. Volcker also acted as an adviser to BNP Paribas (search), the French bank that is one of the focal points of the investigation.

[..]

Since 1987, Volcker has been a close friend and paid adviser to billionaire Paul Desmarais Sr. (search), who owns the Power Corporation of Canada. Volcker is a member of its International Advisory Council, the company confirmed to FOX News. Members of the council are paid when they meet.

Power Corporation, along with a Belgian partner, Baron Albert Frere, shares control of a holding company called Groupe Bruxelles Lambert (GBL), which in turn is the largest single shareholder of Total.

[..]

Until 2001, Paul Desmarais Sr. was also a director of Total; his son, Paul Desmarais Jr., now has that position.

Power Corporation also has close ties with BNP Paribas, the bank that handled all Oil-for-Food transactions and also the institution that congressional investigators have found did not properly monitor transactions involving Saddam's oil sales. BNP owns a large stake in a Power Corporation subsidiary Pargesa Holdings, as well as in Total.

Meanwhile, Michel Francois Poncet, vice chairman of BNP, also sits on Power Corporation's International Advisory Council alongside Volcker. The council had a membership of 21 people, according to the company's 2003 annual report.

[..]

The latest news came soon after information surfaced regarding Volcker's relationship with the UNA-USA Business Council (search), a powerful group that has been highly vocal in its support for the United Nations since news came out that Iraq's Oil-for-Food program was plagued with mismanagement problems and lack of oversight.

Volcker was on the board of directors of the council until last year and hasn't ruled out going back once he concludes his investigation.

One of the three biggest financial contributors to the UNA-USA Business Council in 2003 was BNP Paribas. Sen. Norm Coleman (search), R-Minn., has served a subpoena on BNP Paribas.

This picture is becoming a bit more clear as the origins of BNP-Paribas and the shifting of the Desmarais, Frère and Auchi funds to other places for investing via fund holding organizations: Desmarais teaming up with the Frère family using companies to represent their families and Auchi moving over to General Mediterranean Holding. Together this work puts responsibility cut-outs between the principles and their chosen bank vehicle, BNP-Paribas. Any member of the group can, rightfully declaim that they have 'no contact' with Saddam, as a personal matter and then bypass the work done for them by the organizations involved, be they holding companies or BNP-Paribas itself.

Beyond that the circle of individuals who have been with Power Corp. who also work with BNP-Paribas indicates a cooperative effort to control the workings of the bank itself both via ownership and placing trusted individuals within the highest levels of the bank's operations. That combined with the moves by Saddam Hussein to mask his efforts to gain illicit funds makes the difficulty of actually holding BNP-Paribas accountable. From the 2005 House Committee report on OFF, the problems behind OFF become apparent from the start:

The OFFP was a complex operation that was vulnerable to corruption given the scope of the operation and the nature of the Iraqi regime. Consequently, the OFFP required modern management practices and effective diplomatic skills, neither of which the UN possessed or demonstrated during the OFFP.8 As one former 661 Committee diplomat said, ‘‘the UN didn’t stand a chance against the Iraqis.’’ Iraq, he said, ‘‘outmaneuvered the UN at every point.’’ The UN, he continued, ‘‘had no authority to tell the Iraqis what to do. The Iraqis would only cooperate to the extent it would benefit them.’’ 9

From the start, the OFFP was compromised in favor of Saddam Hussein’s sovereignty. Officials at the U.S. Mission to the UN maintained that there were real battles conducted within the UN over sovereignty. ‘‘Short of taking over a country, how do you tell Saddam Hussein what to do?’’ suggested one U.S. official.10 A former Treasury Department official said that the U.S. wanted an inspection regime similar to one used in Yugoslavia a few years before. 11 The UN, however, did not institute such a system.12 The compromise was ‘‘the best political deal that could be gotten,’’ suggested our diplomats in New York.13

Saddam Hussein was allowed to choose the bank, BNP,14 which was awarded the escrow account into which the proceeds of the sale of Iraqi oil were deposited. Iraqi Bank officials told the Committee that one reason the bank was chosen was that BNP was a major holder of Iraqi government accounts overseas.15 BNP maintains that it won the contract in a fair bid, a point that the IIC disputes.16 According to the IIC, former Secretary-General Boutros Boutros Ghali unfairly awarded the contract to BNP.17

The very same Volcker report cited earlier. Do take some of what they deflect with a grain of salt, but there is more than enough blame to tarnish all involved with OFF. One of the things that does pop up, going through OFF documents, is that front companies or paper shell companies, were used to misdirect who was getting oil. This sort of network is not easy to describe as it is a person-to-person sort of network using agreed-upon fronts for the movement of illicit goods and funds. This is typical of large scale criminal enterprises like the Bank of New York scandal, Clearstream scandal, and the Alfa Group/IPOC scandal (which is really a part of the other two). A more complex realm of associations can be done via a pass-off system, however, between friends in a network routing needs through other friends that will benefit the network as a whole. In the Duelfer Report of 2004 on Iraqi WMD, Volume I would look at the entire trading arrangement of the OFF program, and it is views put the problems of BNP-Paribas into some perspective. Saddam Hussein would look to utilize his pre-existing system of front companies, contacts, traders, banks and such to bypass normal regulatory controls for illicit funding of his regime. That is in addition to the smuggling, illegal trades, mis-statements of shipping manifests and circumvention of treaty arrangements with that aim. More on that, later.

One of the better overviews of the Desmarais family comes from Mark Steyn's The Power behind the thrones (source: canadian mail archive) at the Western Standard on 14 FEB 2005:

And yet, throughout this period, there has indeed been a Canadian making a difference in the world-and if The National wanted to do a 133-part special report on him, for once they'd have enough material. Most of us know Paul Desmarais as the . . . well, let's hold it there: most Canadians don't know Paul Desmarais at all. You could stop the first thousand people walking down Yonge Street and I'll bet no one would know who he is. But the few who do know him know him as the kingmaker behind Trudeau, Mulroney, Chrétien and Martin. Jean Chrétien's daughter is married to Paul Desmarais's son. Paul Martin was an employee of M. Desmarais's Power Corp., and his Canada Steamship Lines was originally a subsidiary of Power Corp. that M. Desmarais put Mr. Martin in charge of. In other words, Paul Martin's public identity--successful self-made businessman, not just a career pol, knows how to meet payroll, etc.--is entirely derived from the patronage of M. Desmarais.

That in itself is a remarkable achievement. Imagine if Jenna Bush married the chairman of Halliburton's son, and then George W. Bush was succeeded by a president who'd been an employee of Halliburton: Michael Moore's next documentary would be buried under wall-to-wall Oscars and Palmes d'Or. But M. Desmarais has managed to turn Ottawa into a company town without anyone being aware of the company. We're a G8 economy; it would be reasonable to expect a prominent British or American businessman to number prominent political figures among his friends, but to have brought so many of them into his company and even family would surely excite some comment. Power Corp.'s other alumni range from Quebec premiers to Canada's most prominent international diplomat, Maurice Strong. In fairness, you don't have to work for M. Desmarais to reach the top of the greasy pole-Kim Campbell managed it, for about a week and a half.

[..]

During the Iraq war, for example, I mentioned en passant that Power Corp. is the biggest shareholder in TotalFinaElf, the western corporation closest to Saddam Hussein (it has since changed its name to the Total Group). Total had secured development rights to 25 per cent of Iraq's oil reserves, a transformative deal that would catapult the company from a second-rank player into the big leagues with Exxon and British Petroleum. For a year, the antiwar crowd had told us it was "all about oil"--that the only reason Iraq was being "liberated" was so Bush, Cheney, Halliburton and the rest of the gang could annex in perpetuity the second biggest oil reserves in the world. But, if it was all about oil, then the fact--fact--is that the only Western leader with a direct stake in the issue was not the Texas oilpatch stooge in Washington, but Jean Chrétien: his daughter, his son-in-law and his grandchildren stood to be massively enriched by the Total-Saddam agreement. It depended on two factors: Saddam remaining in power, and the feeble UN sanctions being either weakened into meaninglessness or quietly dropped. M. Chrétien may have refused to join the Iraq war on "principle," but fortunately his principles happened to coincide with the business interests of both TotalFinaElf and the Baath party.

As I said, I mentioned this curious footnote at the time. Stockwell Day picked up on it. The CBC, CTV, The Globe and Mail, Maclean's and all the rest steered clear. A bland perfunctory 200-word CP story reporting M. Desmarais's denial--"Power Financial Head Refutes Saddam Link"--was carried by far more media outlets than had bothered going anywhere near Day's original remarks.

Well, okay. Let's take M. Desmarais's word for it. But, getting on for two years later, we're in the middle of the UN Oil-for-Fraud investigation, the all-time biggest scam, bigger than Enron and Worldcom and all the rest added together. And whaddaya know? The bank that handled all the money from the program turns out to be BNP Paribas, which tends to get designated by Associated Press and co. as a "French bank" but is, as it happens, controlled by one of M. Desmarais's holding companies. That alone should cause even the droopiest bloodhound to pick up a scent: the UN's banker for its Iraqi "humanitarian" program turns out to be (to all intents) Saddam's favourite oilman.

Perhaps it *was* all about oil, after all... as Mr. Steyn would point out it is impossible to believe that when $100 million of drugs gets delivered to Saddam's Iraq and he invoices it for $110 million that no one would notice that. He does point out that while the head of the CBC is not an associate of the Desmarais family, his friends *are*. As well as a long list of Canadian politicians who would much rather not have their names associated with such a wealthy businessman who made millions off of dealing with Saddam Hussein.

On 16 APR 2003 Lowell Ponte would ask some basic questions of what was going on with Canada at FrontPage Magazine:

Most Americans have been astonished that Canadian Prime Minister Chretien refused to join Great Britain and ourselves in coalition against Saddam Hussein. We have been shocked by Mr. Chretien’s opposition to regime change in Iraq. We have been horrified by his direct order to Canada’s navy not to seize or detain members of Saddam’s regime trying to flee the Middle East – or, we presume, trying to enter Canada – and not to turn them over to Coalition forces. This last action, said U.S. Ambassador to Canada Paul Cellucci, was "incomprehensible."

Americans were pained to discover that the President of our historic ally France, Jacques Chirac, had taken campaign money from and sold weapons illegally to Saddam Hussein. We were appalled that Chirac sided with Saddam and against us merely because France stood to lose billions of dollars in business with the Iraq dictator. But at least his treachery against the United States and Iraqi people had a reason and purpose, however ignoble.

But what possible reason, ask most Americans, could cause our next door neighbor and closest trading partner Canada to stab us in the back? To side with France and Saddam Hussein against us? To cozy up to Fidel Castro (even though Chretien’s and Castro’s socialist politics are not all that different)? To boo and curse America’s national anthem at Canadian sporting events? To have members of Canada’s cabinet say vile things about the United States and its President – and then go unfired and unpunished by its Prime Minister?

A few of us, however, know that Jean Chretien is a grandfather. Canadian oil tycoon and mega-billionaire Paul Desmarais, coincidentally, is also grandfather to the same grandchildren – his son Andre being married to Chretien’s daughter, whose very name is France.

One of the French oil companies that had been closest to Saddam Hussein is Paris-based TotalFinaElf. Its biggest shareholder is the same Paul Desmarais, and his son Paul Jr., brother of Chretien’s son-in-law Andre, sits on Total’s Board of Directors.

TotalFinaElf, incidently, recently and quietly moved to buy up a large share of a major oilsands project in the Canadian province of Alberta, which evidence suggests may be home to one of the world’s two biggest relatively-untapped oil reserves. This gives both Montreal and France a Saddam-like interest in making sure Alberta can never secede to become either part of a new independent nation or a new state of the United States.

[..]

The Desmarais family has other links worth noting. Andre has held a proud place on the board of multinational communications behemoth Vivendi. And he runs Power Corporation, whose annual revenues typically top $18 billion (Canadian dollars). For a disturbing, if Leftist, depiction of how the Desmarais family manipulates the national media as well as all major political parties in Canada, check out University of Windsor Professor James Winter’s provocative book Democracy’s Oxygen: How the Corporations Control the News.

Andre also sits on the board of the Peoples’ Republic of China’s China International Trust and Investment Corporation (CITIC), reportedly described by some as "the investment arm of the Chinese military." Canada’s version of the CIA, the CSIS, reportedly through its "Project Sidewinder" tried to investigate how this and Chretien’s frequent trade missions to China might reflect undue Chinese communist influence on Canadian politicians.

The Sidewinder Report is hosted at the Prime Time Crime website, for those interested in perusing its contents. Like its linking between the Desmarais family, the People's Liberation Army and the Clinton Administration:

19. CITIC was initially established to encourage foreign investment in China. It has since taken the lead in Chinese investments outside China, in all areas from real estate to electronics. In 1979 Beijing appointed to CITIC's board of directors three Hong Kong financial giants, Li Ka-Shing, Henry Fok Ying-Tung and Wang Foon-Shing. With their assistance, in the following years, the Beijing acquired important companies such as Cathy Pacific Airlines, Hong Kong Telecom and Star TV. In Canada, it is estimated that CITIC has invested nearly $500 million to buy up businesses in certain areas, such as Celgar Pulp Mill in British Columbia, Nova Corp Petrochemical in Alberta, real estate through Hang Chong Investments Ltd. and hotels. Eventually, CITIC developed also close business links with Power Corporation. (S)

20. CITIC recently attracted American media attention in the scandal over illegal contributions to the US Democratic Party and influence-peddling by the Chinese government (see section below). CITIC, China Resources and the Lippo Group (in which in both Li Ka-Shing is a large shareholder) are at the centre of the affair. CITIC chairman, Wang Jan, is also chairman of Poly Technology (see next section). CITIC has repeated the gesture by contributing through its Canadian subsidiaries to Canadian Political Parties. (UC)

21. Norinco and Poly Technology (Poly Group). Northern Industrial Corporation (Norinco) and Poly Technologies (a subsidiary of Poly Group) are both owned by China and under the control of CITIC. They have subsidies around the world, including Canada (Montreal) and the United States. Poly Group was until recently head by Deng Xiaoping's son-in-law, He Ping, and is part of the entrepreneurial drive of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Several large quantities of arms manufactured by Norinco have been confiscated on Indian reserves, especially those of the Mohawks. In May 1996, US authorities what they described as the biggest arms seizure on American soil, confiscating 2,000 AK-47assault rifles and other military weapons from a warehouse in California. The US-based Chinese representatives of Poly Technologies and Norinco were arrested in connection with this affair. Although the final destination of the arms has not been determined, the Amerindians "Warriors" and American militia trails are strongly suspected by US authorities. (S)

Those mid-1990's were a rockin' time! OFF on the one side, Chinese arms on the other, Power Corp between them... and, yes, you get this lovely cite further down to see that the Chinese government was not asleep at the wheel:

30. China Huaneng Group, Unipec Canada and Goldpark China Ltd. On January 1997 Canadian newspapers announced that the Chinese companies China Huaneng Group Group Hong Kong Ltd. (CHG(HK)) and China International United Petroleum and Chemicals Co. (Unipec) had concluded an agreement whereby Huaneng would buy 70 percent of the shares of Unipec Canada Ltd. Unipec Canada Ltd., in turns, holds 57 percent of the shares of Goldpark China Ltd. of Toronto which, holds exclusive world rights for the productions of photographic security systems. CHG(HK) is a subsidiary of the fifteenth largest Chinese State Company, China Huaneng Group. Unipec for its part is a giant of the Chinese oil industry which has sought in recent years to diversify its activities. It is also famous for the many lawsuits against it and for its illegal transactions involving large arms sales to Iraq for oil. (UC)

Luckily, beyond the fact that Huaneng Group owning Unipec and being a State owned Red Chinese company and the PLA running CITIC there are no connections between Unipec and Desmarais. Thank heavens as that would be another few hours I would have to spend chasing those down. This gets you an idea of the far reach of the Desmarais family both before and after the Iraq war.

At the 10th International Anti-Corruption Conference Jean-Francois Medard presented a paper on the relationship between Elf, Angola (Angolagate) and individuals at the head of the banking concerns involved, like Nadhmi Auchi (and for a not officially published work you can't quote from, it is excellent). The resultant method used to ensure that funds, arms, oil and company assets would not be easily traced is what is termed 'a nebula of networks' and I commonly refer to it as person-to-person trust-based networks. As many have heard about jobs 'it is not what you know, but who you know' the exact, same thing goes on for illegal transactions of arms, equipment and money laundering. It is a question of who you know and who they trust who can help lead to getting whatever needs to be done, accomplished. This includes not only the direct p2p network, but also trusted organizations and the individuals in them, so that things like Masonic Lodges (quite the societal networking group for European business and mafioso) in which the establishment, itself, represents a node on the p2p network.

It is this network that would include individuals like Pierre Falcone, Etienne Leandri, Charles Pasqua, Marc Rich, Bill & Hillary Clinton, Nadhmi Auchi and organizations like Elf, the corrupt Menatep Bank of Russia (used by the Abromovich organization) and the Bank of New York system compromised by the Berlin couple and Semion Mogilevich. By exchanging Angolan debt and cash from other parts of the system, the entire affair was able to arrange for arms to be shipped illegal to Jonas Savimbi in Angola. That entire deal, involving so many multiple level 'cut-outs' in the banking structure (between BNP and the corrupt BoNY system), off-shore banks and money transfers (mostly to paper front companies) plus the high level of individuals and organizations ensured that no one would be able to properly figure the whole thing out. Just to be sure, President Clinton pardoned Marc Rich due to his high level of involvement in that and with the Russian Mafia.

Why this is interesting is that accountability for activities is very hard to pin down and trace as the complexity of the network, itself, makes actually following any series of transactions difficult, if not impossible. The extent of the network also plays into this as different sorts of capability, be they government, commercial or private capital, can be brought to play at different times in any series of transactions. That said one of the individuals who shows up will get a Presidential pardon, as related by the Pittsburgh Tribune's Dateline D.C. column on 11 DEC 2005 and that is Marc Rich, who also shows up in Timmerman's book:

Rich ran to Switzerland before his court appearance and remained on the FBI's Most Wanted List until January 2001, when he received a presidential pardon from Bill, just hours before the Clintons left office.

[..]

Marc Rich resurfaced in October in Paul Volcker's investigation of the U.N. Oil-for-Food Program. The report said Rich & Co. covertly financed at least $932,630 in oil purchases from Saddam Hussein by using a front company, Masefield, of Zugin, Switzerland.

Reading the Volcker report leads to the conclusion that big payments were made to the son of a French member of parliament and an Indian Cabinet member, who created "shell companies" to enrich Saddam.

[..]

There is another person who should be questioned -- the Canadian privy councilor Maurice Strong. Strong, whose extensive estates in Canada are now up for sale, had not been heard from until very recently -- since his signature was found on a $1-million check from Saddam Hussein to Cordex Petroleum, a Canadian company once run by his son, Fred Strong, that also involved Tongsun Park as the fall guy.

Park, who seems now to work for North Korea, paid a check to "Mr. M. Strong" into a Jordanian bank account for nearly $1 million. It quickly was used by Strong to buy shares on which he had an option. And, of course, Chairman Mo knew nothing about the check when first questioned by investigators.

Strong, now 76, has been a senior adviser to Kofi Annan, a senior adviser to the president of the World Bank, chairman of the Earth Council, the World Resources Institute and the World Economic Forum. In 1997, he was overseeing U.N. reforms. A lifelong socialist, Strong was and is a first-rate influence-peddler who never missed an opportunity to enrich himself.

[..]

Recently defeated Paul Martin, Canada's ultra-liberal prime minister, was hired by Strong in 1974 to work for Paul Desmarais, a major shareholder in the French energy company TotalFinaElf. Martin was made president of Canada Steamship Lines by Desmaris. He then bought the company from him, which is now worth $424 million. When he became prime minister, Martin gave Canada Steamship to his three sons, who have prospered enormously since from government contracts.

Nothing like a bunch of Leftists espousing socialism out for self-enrichment! Purely accidental, I'm sure. And as the Inner City Press reported on 28 JAN 2007 as part of a series of articles on this, Maurice Strong heads up the UN University for Peace, has had closed door meetings with the North Korean regime, and even got his stepdaughter a job at the UN. Marc Rich is important as he shifted into the post-Soviet environment early on as documented by Kommersant's timeline on the Non-Ferrous Metallurgy industry, starting with this citation of Rich in 1991:

The Swiss company Marc Rich organized tolling at the Krasnoyarsk Aluminum Smelter (KrAZ). Oleg Deripaska, Mikhail Chornoi, and Yury Shlyafshtein would later be credited with inventing tolling, but in fact it was Marc Rich that brought it to Russia. The company left Russia within a year due to internal conflicts, making way for the AIOC company.

It is that 'tolling' system that allows money to move into the Russian system to pay low wages to factory workers and avoid tariffs, thus allowing business operators to make large scale profits. Even after running into troubles, Rich would return in 1994:

In June, Marc Rich & Co. AG, which had left the Russian aluminum business, changed owners and changed its name to Glencore International AG. Glencore gradually started returning to the Russian nonferrous metal market.

That would be leveraged as seen by the activities of Glencore in 1996:

Krazpa Metals NV, which was 50% owned by Glencore, was presented in London on March 28 as KrAZ's marketing partner. Krazpa replaced AIOC, whose joint venture with KrAZ and Sibalko had collapsed at the end of the previous year after Feliks Lvov's murder. TWG, Renova, RIAL, Trastkonsalt, and Glencore formed a "big five" of traders in the aluminum business.

From there the fall of Trans World Group and the struggles between the various Oligarchs gets pretty nasty. That said Marc Rich not only had the business acumen to see profits in working with Saddam on OFF, but also money from the various business interests he had in Russia at the time. One of Rich's prior business deals involved the Angolagate affair, in France, as looked at above and described a bit more in this article by Francois Misser at African Business MAY 2001 at Findarticles:

Over the past few months, the French media has been smacking its lips over juicy revelations from what has been dubbed The Angolagate scandal - a series of complicated oil for arms deals. It is easy to understand the media interest. The cast of characters being sucked into the scandal is impressive enough - former US President Bill Clinton, his wife Hillary - now a New York senator, Mark Rich - on the wanted list in America before being pardoned by Bill Clinton, Francois Mitterrand's son, Jean-- Christophe -currently out bail, Angolan President Dos Santos, and the principal actor, the flamboyant Pierre Falcone currently serving a prison sentence in France.

[..]

The major headache for Luanda was that the Bicesse Peace Accord included a United Nations ban on arms sales to both sides. It was lifted in October 1992 by Russia, the United Kingdom and partially by United States - but France continued to prohibit the sale of arms to both sides in the civil war.

Enter the French-Brazilian entrepreneur extraordinary - Pierre Falcone and his partner, the Israeli-Russian businessman Arkadi Gaydamak. They came to make an offer which they knew Luanda could not refuse.

Between 1993 and 1997 they arranged the supply of Russian made weapons (including combat helicopters) by the Slovak ZTS-- Osos company in an arms for oil deal worth an estimated $600m.

[..]

Angola was not ZTS-Osos' only African client. Cameroonian officials confirmed French media reports in early 2001 that it had also imported weapons from the Slovak company in 1994, during a border conflict with Nigeria. But the same Cameroonian sources claim there was nothing illegal about the deal, also mediated by Pierre Falcone.

In Angola's case, the situation was different. Falcone is a French citizen and his oil-- backed operations aimed at facilitating the purchase of weapons for Angola were made with the financial support of the French bank, Paribas. For both these reasons, he should have asked for the French Defence and Foreign Affairs Ministries for permission before going ahead with the deals. That he did not is why the French ordered his arrest last December and held him at the La Sante prison in Paris

The French judiciary has other charges against the French-Brazilian jet-setter.

He was also involved at the time with the French government's security equipment export company Sofremi, which was under the Former Minister of Interior, Charles Pasqua.

[..]

Angolagate has also spreads its tentacles across the Atlantic. In a report titled Crude Awakening, the British NGO Global Witness had asserted that "the financing of a $50m contract for the supply of East European weapons from the Czech Osos Praha Company and the Slovak joint stock company ZTS was arranged in 1993 by the Russian-- Israeli businessman Arkadi Gaydamak and by his French-Brazilian partner Pierre Falcone, run through the Swiss oil-trading company Glencore founded by Marc Rich". That was a year before Rich sold his shares in Glencore. At the time, neither Glencore nor Marc Rich denied the Global Witness report.

Gaydamak is currently on the run - the French having issued an international arrest warrant for him.

So far, neither Glencore or Marc Rich have been accused of violating Swiss or French laws, but the conclusion one may draw from the Global Witness report is that Marc Rich might have contributed to the Angolan government's war effort. Should the US Justice Department find a connection between his ex-wife, singer Denise Rich, and her donation to Hillary Clinton's New York senate campaign being linked to Bill Clinton's decision to pardon Marc Rich over a purported $48m tax fraud, that would be more than embarrassing for the former First Lady.

The question is whether or not the former US President, who justified his decision to pardon Rich for his `positive role' in the Middle East peace process, can seriously ignore Marc Rich's role in Angolagate. After all, Bill Clinton, if he wanted to, could have easily accessed all intelligence reports about such an important and controversial player on the world's oil scene.

Even assuming that Clinton did not know, it will be even harder to convince those black voters who supported Mrs Clinton in New York that she and her husband were ignorant of Marc Rich's role as a top sanctions busters during the South Africa apartheid era. According to a book, Apartheid's Oil Secrets Revealed, from the Dutch-based anti-apartheid group Shipping Research Bureau, which monitored violations of the 1979 UN oil embargo, the Swiss-based trader chartered 149 out of the total 865 tankers spotted by the SRB calling at South African ports between 1979 and1993.

Since oil was at the time the only strategic product which South Africa lacked, Rich can be considered as having been instrumental in supporting the apartheid state's war machine - unleashed against those who opposed this system both inside the country and in the frontline states. The SRB book provides evidence that Rich, who is Jewish and holds an Israeli passport, managed to sell crude from the Arab states of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Brunei to South Africa, which had developed close military cooperation with Israel.

Rich also supplied crude from Nigeria, Gabon and the former Soviet Union, who were scrupulously supporting all antiapartheid resolutions at the UN. Rich, whose operations are afforded an entire chapter of the book, was from the mid 1980s South Africa's main coal trader, finding alternative markets to those of France and Denmark in Spain, China, Chile, Portugal and Turkey.

Mrs Falcones' Donations

The US Democratic party do not have a monopoly on receiving funding from dubious characters connected with Angola's oil barons or the former apartheid regime. The Republicans came close to becoming a recipient when, last January, the Arizona Republic daily revealed that a Utah-based health company, Essante Corp, controlled by Falcone's wife Sonia Montero, a former Bolivian beauty queen, contributed $100,000 in campaign money to a Republican Party committee just days after President Bush's election victory. However, the money was returned by Republican officials who became concerned after reporters from Newsweek asked them what they knew of Falcone's arms-dealing background.

Bush and the Republicans just managed to escape a scandal, but have failed to explain just why Mrs Falcone was quite so generous towards them. In fact, prior to this particular donation, US Federal Election Commission records show that Sonia had already contributed a modest $2,000 to the Arizona Republican Party and contributed the same amount to the Democratic National Committee in May 1999.

By having contact via Paribas (here before merging with BNP) Falcone is able to move funds from oil sales for the purchase of arms for Angola, restricted under French law at the time. It cannot be understated that Marc Rich had played an important part in defining Russia's trade system to benefit those able to get cash and goods in quickly to take over industries: that took the form of criminal funds moving to become co-partners with the Russian state and private capital. On 18 JUL 2005 Businessweek would look at the background of Marc Rich:

Traders soon learned the art of the Rich deal: Do whatever it takes. After Rich and Green left Phibro in 1973 to form their own company, they bought a house in the South of France and "stocked it with hookers from Paris and flew in oil guys who spent a week at their expense," says a former U.S. oil executive who knows Rich. "They got the oil contracts they wanted." A former Rich partner corroborates this. Green, who retired in 1992 after heart surgery, could not be reached for comment.

Rich is notorious for trading with Iran during the hostage crisis, South Africa during apartheid, and Cuba and Libya during U.S. trade embargoes. In 1983 he fled to Switzerland after being indicted by the Justice Dept. for racketeering, trading with the enemy (Iran), dodging a $48 million corporate tax bill, and other violations that could have resulted in 300 years of jail time. Rich's companies pleaded guilty to some charges and paid about $200 million in fines, penalties, and taxes, but the case remained open until the pardon. "Rich's philosophy is that no law applies to him," says Morris "Sandy" Weinberg Jr., the former U.S. prosecutor who pursued and indicted Rich in 1983.

And then looking at his backing of Saddam during OFF:

THE SADDAM CONNECTION
Some of the most compelling details to emerge from Oil-for-Food probes revolve around Rich himself. BusinessWeek has pieced together information suggesting that, despite his denials, Rich did buy Iraqi crude from several questionable companies during the program. His name appears in shipping records compiled by MEES. These show he bought from four separate companies, starting in February, 2001: Onako Oil Co., a subsidiary of Alfa Group, one of Russia's largest conglomerates; an Egyptian company called International Company for Petroleum & Industrial Services (or INCOME, for short); and a Swiss company, Zerich, with ties to some extremist groups. The fourth, EOTC, remains a mystery. Hesham Sheta, vice-chairman of INCOME's parent company in Cairo, Egypt, International Group for Investments, confirmed that "Marc Rich has been INCOME's 'agent' [oil trader] since 1990" and that Rich bought Iraqi crude from INCOME in 2001. Zerich has since been liquidated. Alfa denies paying surcharges.

Rich tells a different story. In March he acknowledged his company was on the U.N.'s list of "approved" crude buyers but insisted in written answers to House International Relations Committee questions that "nothing ever came of it." A committee spokesman remarked at the time: "We believe [Rich] knows more than he wishes to acknowledge." Marc Rich + Co.'s Frutig reiterated an earlier press statement: "Marc Rich Holdings reject all the allegations relating to its involvement in the U.N.'s Oil-for-Food program in Iraq."

Even with the new information, it may be difficult for the authorities to prove that Rich did anything illegal. At the time, Saddam offered oil at cut-rate prices to his supporters, who would then sell it for a huge profit on the market. For two years leading up to September, 2002, the dictator demanded surcharges of up to 50 cents a barrel that he deposited in secret bank accounts, according to the CIA, the Volcker committee, and Senate documents.

[..]

Some Rich Boys were heavy hitters in Oil-for-Food. In February, 2001, for example, the U.N. Security Council reported that Glencore bought 1 million barrels of Iraqi crude destined for the U.S. The oil was diverted to Croatia, where it was sold for a $3 million premium, that went into a secret bank account. Glencore was caught by U.N. overseers, and later agreed to refund the money to the U.N. A Glencore spokeswoman says the oil was shipped to Croatia for storage and later shipment to the U.S. A CIA report alleges that Glencore paid more than $3.2 million in surcharges to Iraq, something it denies.

The numerous investigations into the U.N. program paint a complex picture of how Rich Boys allegedly work. In September, 2001, U.S. and U.N. authorities were tipped off by a Greek shipping captain, who feared his tanker chartered by Trafigura was involved in sanctions busting. Trafigura, run by former Rich traders Claude Dauphin and Eric de Turckheim, bought Iraqi oil from a Bermuda company called Ibex Energy, according to a U.N. report. Ibex was owned by another former Rich trader, Jean-Paul Cayré. SOCO's Patrick Maugein, once a top Rich trader, was close to former Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz. The CIA alleges Maugein received oil allocations that he sold through Trafigura. Maugein denies paying illegal surcharges. Maugein says he knows one of Trafigura's founders. Investigators allege he had a contract with or a stake in Trafigura, something both the company and Maugein deny. Maugein and Trafigura also deny having commercial ties to Ibex.

Marc Rich's ties to Saddam are also examined, with his connection to Esfandiar and Bahman Bakhtiar whose father was the head of the Shah of Iran's secret police and Saddam welcomed them into Iraq and treated them "as adopted sons". His ties with the two and willingness to trade for their companies, Jaraco and Dynatrade (that would become part of the INCOME organization) allowed him ready access during the OFF scandal to garnering contracts with Saddam. One of the companies involved in OFF, Bayoil, would be one of the two allowed to trade with Iraq after the lifting of US sanctions in 2003, which indicates the depth of reach of that set of relationships, going past the end of the Saddam era.

This then puts some major problems of the types of organizations and firms doing business under OFF into the spotlight, beyond the fly-by-night traders, one-off gifts of oil from Saddam, 'topping off' tankers with extra oil with funds to go back to Saddam, and the other underhanded arrangements. Most of these people knew full well what they were getting into as they have had dealings, as individuals and institutions, with Saddam Hussein previously. Auchi, Desmarais and Rich all traveled in similar circles for banking, finance and trade (respectively) and while Auchi declaims any 'direct contact' with Saddam the intermediary of BNP and its agents working with Saddam's agents allows that statement to be both truthful and not at the same time.

Now it is time to step back from the detail and look at the broader picture of OFF, and from here the Duelfer Report is probably the best way to do that and wrap up this look at OFF. Really I don't think anyone has tied all the pieces of OFF together, but the starting points are well defined not only by the official reports, but the unofficial reporting of others looking at the individuals and organizations involved. To give an idea of the highest level complexity, that of just organization types utilized and the types of transactions, the graphics on p.23 of the Regime Finance and Procurement section of the report gives a good over-view:

OFF Duelfer p23

That is without breaking out much in the way of banks, institutions, individuals or doing much in the way of fine-tooth combing, save for the very highest level of transactions. It is that figure that gives and defines the highest level view of those things that are involved in OFF, but the networks that drove OFF were ones that pre-existed it and were ready to be employed in it.

The scale of OFF is not appreciated as it allowed the Saddam regime to cut its expenditures deficit and was projecting for a balanced budget by 2002 (as seen on p.15 of the Regime Finance section). While the overall budget was smaller, the immense deficit spending prior to 1995 had stopped and the economy was close to being cash solvent, save for the debt, even though its overall GDP had slipped badly since the end of the Gulf War.

What the utilization of the OFF program allowed was the allotment of vouchers to individuals, not just companies, and a large number of individuals including the head of Russia's Communist Party, Patrick Maugein, Charles Pasqua, the Russian Foreign Ministry, the Russian Ambassador in Baghdad, Sukarnoputri Megawati President of Indonesia, and even the man who ran the program at the UN, Benon Sevan. It is that corrupting influence of personal allotment vouchers, beyond the normal procedures that grew up around OFF, that would cause a serious set of investigations to take place. Further than that, a number of off-shore trades via barter were completed so as to exchange oil for goods without having a cash transaction show up on the books. This would also include things like instant sales for 'cash' outlays not paid into the banking system, but used for other off-the-books transactions.

As I have looked at elsewhere, there was another underlying strategy to Saddam's oil sales and it is described here, with a look at how some of these things worked, this from p. 38 of the Regime Finance section of the report, bold and italics in the original:

According to SOMO officials, Saddam demanded that Iraq keep the price of its oil as low as possible in order to leave room for oil traders to pay Iraq the illegal surcharges. A sales director at SOMO stated that they were instructed by the government to get the lowest price. Under normal circumstances, SOMO would have sought the highest price for Iraq’s oil, its only legal source of real revenue.

Among the companies listed in SOMO’s records as having paid illegal surcharges are some of the world’s largest refineries and oil trading companies. SOMO maintained detailed financial records listing invoices and collections for each contract. These companies, when questioned about surcharge payments, deny they were the parties that made them.

• For example, according to SOMO records, one of the most active purchasers of Iraqi crude was a Swiss-based company named Glencore. It paid $3,222,780 in illegal surcharges during the period of the program. The company denies any inappropriate dealings with the Iraqi government outside of the UN OFF program.

It is that first paragraph, where Saddam was looking for the lowest price possible, as it is 'two-fer' for Saddam Hussein. First it garners the largest possible return payment via kickbacks, surcharges, etc., which is an immediate gain for Saddam as this was how he kept his regime running. Seems about it, right? What more could he get out of this?

That is what was brought to the attention of the US Senate in 1999 by the testimony given to the US Senate Committee on Energy and Natural resources by Steve Layton, President and CEO of Equinox Oil Company, part of the Independent Petroleum Association of America, this back in the days of low oil prices:

Today’s hearing is intended to examine the current state of the petroleum industry. I must say at the outset that I have never seen the domestic petroleum industry facing a more complicated and potentially devastating set of problems than it now does. The industry has faced a low oil price crisis for the past year, but today’s problems are very different and far more threatening than the ones that began the problem.

A year ago, the price crisis was started by a combination of eventsthe collapse of Asian economies, a warmer than normal winter in the northern hemisphere, and ultimately a market share fight between Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. The events created a surplus of oil in the international market and prices fell. The production most at risk was marginal oil wells in the United States – wells that produce about 20 percent of America’s domestic production, an amount equivalent to our imports from Saudi Arabia. And, I might add the wells from which I make my living.

Now, we have experienced a year of low oil prices – historically low prices that threaten the very heart of U.S. oil production. Domestic oil production is divided into three general areas – the onshore lower 48 states, offshore, and Alaska. The onshore lower 48 states account for about 60 percent of total domestic oil production. The Energy Information Agency has released a recent report that over 60 percent of this onshore lower 48 production comes from independents, a percentage that has increased by ten percent over the past ten years. It reflects an irreversible trend. Major oil companies are leaving the onshore lower 48 states. Particularly since 1986 when the last price crisis occurred, major oil companies have turned their attention away from the onshore lower 48 states shutting in or selling off their production. They have concluded that these wells do not produce the volumes they need to meet the return on capital that they seek. Majors now operate in the United States primarily in the offshore and Alaska, but more and more they are seeking their new production overseas.

[..]

In fact, we would submit that Iraq now controls world oil prices. We would submit that the current U.N. sanctions program has failed on two counts. First, it has failed in its primary mission to provide humanitarian aid to the Iraqi people. Second, it has handed Saddam Hussein the victory he lost in the Gulf War. He invaded Kuwait to control oil prices; now he does and he is penalizing his enemies.

[..]

First, world oil prices are essentially set by the last barrel sold. A year ago, Iraq exported about 700,000 barrels/day. In December 1998, it exported about 2.3 million barrels/day. By March it will have another 500,000 barrels/day of capacity on line. Iraq was the only OPEC country to boost its oil revenue in 1998. As other OPEC countries have reduced production to stabilize oil prices, Iraq has become the swing producer of world oil. The swing producer sets the price.

Second, Saddam’s objectives differ from other oil producers. He wanted higher oil prices when he invaded Kuwait – money he needed to build his military forces. Now, he can’t spend money to buy arms. But, he can – by keeping oil prices low – punish his enemies, first by reducing the income to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, and others; second, by driving critical U.S. production to be shutdown and plugged forever.

Third, looking purely at demand and productive capacity, today’s surpluses should not drive prices to their historic depths. We estimate that worldwide production capacity currently exceeds demand by about 4 percent.

As seen from the US small producers, Saddam was waging economic war against his enemies and particularly against US domestic energy capability in the form of oil production. Capped wells cannot be re-opened and must be re-drilled which means re-prospecting and looking at any changes that have happened to the intervening geological structures since original drilling. Any on-shore, domestic supplier that had to cap their wells in the 1995-2002 era while Saddam was utilizing OFF can be characterized as a non-traditional economic attack on the US to make it more dependent on foreign oil suppliers.

Namely, Saddam Hussein's Iraq.

While all of those listed that did not have direct contact with Saddam's regime could not be held responsible for being the mastermind of such a scheme, they were willing participants, each for their own objectives. Some it would be simple Return on Investment, while others would look towards debt repayment or future contracts with Saddam's regime. By utilizing his skill at promulgating self-interest in his own regime's continuation, those that helped him were critical in undermining the exact, same international restrictions that they were supposedly enforcing.

Even worse is that America's own politicians, who scurry around when the general population is being hurt by world oil markets did nothing, not one damned thing, to ensure that our own economy would not be undercut by an active enemy of the United States. All of those that sought to stop drilling in ANWR and off the coast had clear and decisive warning that bad times would come if they did not support this minor thing known as 'continued production' domestically. Being unable to support future productive needs they also ignored the warnings given of the economic attack happening right under their noses and were silent in the legislative arena. Even worse is that not a single one of those sitting in Congress then and who still remain there today have shown any evidence that much of the blame for America's inability to produce oil when it is needed via its domestic producers depends on the exact, same restrictive regulations they have promulgated. It is bad enough dealing with billionaire financiers with checkered pasts, or pro-tyrannical regime supporting businessmen, or even crooked traders willing to make a buck off of conflict. No wonder that Saddam Hussein was confident that if things just went the way they had been he would have been home free in a year or two more.

Unfortunately for him the rules have changed.

Even worse is the ones who worked this mess out of the light of day still continue their work without sanction against them. Both overseas and in the Halls of Congress.

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