17 November 2006

The End of the Unreal 'Realists'

Today, my friends, we are gathered together to pay our final respects to 'Realpolitik' and 'realistic diplomacy' and 'pramatic geostrategic statesmanship'. While they still have nodding practitioners advocating these things, like Brent Scowcroft, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Henry Kissinger, and James A. Baker III, they have all grown old and set in their ways of viewing the world and that viewpoint is as arthritic as the Soviet Union was just before its completely unexpected collapse. Each of these men and all of their Foreign Policy outlooks have had to live in the environment in which a Rational Opposition Nation State was the nemesis of the United States. That being the Soviet Union and its various, nefarious allies, we must also see that as that Nation disappeared from the face of the Earth so did the underpinnings of all diplomacy that grew up in the immediate post-WWII era. The Cold War did not end with a thaw and melting of the USSR, but its sudden sublimation from solid to gaseous form almost overnight. None of them could have ever predicted that, and the leaden viewpoint on HOW Nation States act and move has proven to be deeply out of touch with the actual reality of the world.

It is to be admitted that there were good aspects to such diplomatic and Foreign Policy underpinnings: it opposed a Nation set to undermine Individualism and turn it into Collectivism. Many treaties and signings and 'detente initiatives' and 'bold steps' to nowhere were taken from 1945 to 1991, and they all consisted of ensuring that a 'Balance of Power', sometimes referred to 'Balance of Terror' or 'Mutually Assured Destruction' was set in place so as to LOCK that attitude in forevermore. Luckily for the world, they failed in that doing and when the Great Enemy of Freedom went up in a puff of smoke, so did ALL of those wonderful conceptions of the world that saw Rational States as the supreme actor in World Affairs.

Even during the major reign of these huge thinkers on All Things of Import in Foreign Policy, NONE of them could address the uprising of Islamic Fundamentalism turning into IslamoFascism in Iran. They did seek a 'containment' sidelight, but when Iran created a non-Nation State surrogate to promulgate its power and foreign policy and religious outlook in the form of Hezbollah, these Great Thinkers of Nuanced Thought Came Up With: ZERO.

Yes, they IGNORED IT.

Quite some time was spent on 'containment' and 'isolating Iran' and 'making goodwill gestures' and 'offering carrots and sticks' and President Reagan even sent Ayatollah Khomeini a cake, but it all came to the exact same end. Not a thing changed in Iran. And not a single President including Carter, Reagan, Bush 41 or Clinton actually addressed that Iran and Syria had ALREADY performed Acts of War upon the United States, starting with the Hostage Crisis, then the First Beirut Embassy Bombing and then the Marine Barracks Bombing in Beirut and then the SECOND Embassy Bombing in Beirut. One would almost think that these Acts of War went unnoticed by the Administrations so worried about the 'Balance of Power' that the very ability of the US to be respected *anywhere* in the World was being undermined by the Non-Response to these things. One would come to think that because that, as we have seen in the 1990's is JUST THE CASE.

And now with the Great Ship of Realpolitik and Geostrategy taking on water faster than any pump made can get rid of it, the last breath of wind is being exhaled to try and make this oh-so-wonderful line of thinking to have some meaning in the world. Perhaps a slight gust can get it to a sandbar, although it does appear to be foundering in the middle of an Ocean beset by everlasting calm. A Sargasso of Certitude that if we wish for Rational Nations then LO!, they shall appear.

Perhaps these Great Thinkers on All Things Realpolitik could answer the Question of Iran and Syria: What makes them so Rational when they have staged Acts of War against the US? Even the USSR had grave misgivings about doing something like that, and that was, supposedly, a Mighty Nation that proved to be a lump of iodine under the mid-day sun. Are they hoping, mayhap, that Iran and Syria will just evaporate in a year or so and turn to 'Realism'? Could any of these Great and Wise Solons of Sophisticated Sophistry of Diplmatic Jargon please tell the World exactly Why They Think This?

Really, we, the unsophisticated peons of plebecite would love to know exactly why, when they were all whispering to the Mighties in Power that they did NOT handle this mess when it started? If these Nations that have attacked us with foul means and then spread further such means across the Middle East and even across the World, just Why did these, the Great Old Wise Heads of Cold War Past, not do a DAMNED THING THAT WORKED?

Yea and verily everything they tried made matters WORSE and encouraged enemies of the Free People of the United States to spread their philosophy because the 'Realistic Approach' to the World was to Run and Hide Under the Bed when ANYTHING got just a bit tough to do. They each stood Tall and Proud for an Arsenal of Democracy, but preferred to let it RUST and DECAY and that Democracy WITH IT. Even against such meager States as Syria and Iran, much could be done that the USSR would have quibbles with, but would NOT have started a Global Thermonuclear Conflagration that was Bad for the Sinuses and could have exterminated the Species. In truth for there to be some sort of Communism that requires this 'Realistic Concept' of there being Humans LEFT ALIVE to Commune together. Iran came to not much in the Soviet Sphere of Thought and Syria was a 'hanger-on' that soaked up much in resources and gave little back.

But, no! None asks these questions of such Individuals of Stature as to be near Deific in Supposed Competence because it might be a bit impertinent. But their time has come to finally Answer a Great Question on the Nation of Iraq, and the one underpinning that even These Who Are the Great Ones in Realpolitik do, indeed, admit to, is that Iraq is more a collection of Tribes than a Geographically Coherent Nation. So, with that understood underpinning of Import, just HOW do you get a proper division amongst this Grand and Short listing of Known Tribes in Iraq:

Federations (qabila)
AL-BU MUHAMMAD centered in the Maysan governorate
'ANZA (pronounced 'Aniza) federation
'AZZA federation around Balad
DULAYM centered in the Anbar governorate
Al-Bu Fahd group
Al-Bu Nimr (from al-Ramadi)
Al-Mahamda
Al-Falahat
Al-Bu Fahad
Al-Bu Dhiyab
Al-Bu Mahhal
Al-Bu Issa (in Fallujah)
Al-Jumeilat (in Fallujah)
Al-Karabla
Al-Bu Assaf
Al-Bu Risha
Al-Bu Alwan
Al-Bu Farraj
Al-Karabla
JUBOUR
BANI KA'B federation centered south of the city of Basra and across the
border in the Khuzestan province of Iran

KHAZA'IL
BANI LAM
MUNTAFIQ
Al-Sa'dun clan (tribal leaders)
Bani Malik
Bani Khalid (plural al-Khawalid)
Bani Qais (Al-Qaisiyun)
Bani Sa'id
Bani Hassan (southern Iraq)
Bani Khafaja
Abbouda
Al-Bu Salih
Al-Mayyah
Al-Izayrij
Bani Zaid
Al-Sharifat (An-Naasriya, south of Iraq)
Al-Ghizi
Al-Hameed
RABI'A (pronounced Rubai'a) centered around the Kut city area
Shammar in the Ninawa governorate
BANI TAMIM (sometimes written Timim or Temim) in central and southern Iraq
al-Suhail clan (tribal leaders) near Abu Ghuraib
al-Turshan section centered in the Diyala governorate
al-Kan'an section in the Basra governorate and across the border in the [[Arabs of
KhuzestanKhuzestan]] province of Iran

Tikriti federation
Al-Bu Nasir (includes Saddam Hussein)
Al-Bu Ajeel
Al-Shaya'isha
'UBAYD (in al-'Alam and Tarmiya)
ZUBAYD
Note: The 'AZZA, DULAYM, JABUR, Janabi and 'UBAYD federations above are all sub-sections of the
ZUBAYD


Baghdad area
BANI TAMIM
Shammar
Shammer Jarba (Sunni)
Shammer Toga (Shia)
Zoba
Al-Dulaym
Al-Janabi
Al-Nidawat
Al-Ubayd
Al-Azza
Al-Akabi
Al-Bu Mohammed
Al-Bu Aitha
Al-Bu Amir
Al-Jubour
Al-Mujama'
Al-Ghrair
Al-Ugaydat
Al-Anbariyeen
Al-Qarraghul
Al-Dafaf'a
Al-Bu Muhyi
Bani Saad
Bani Lam
Rubai'a
Khazraj
Shammar Toga

Mosul area
Al-Dulaim (100,000, most of them in western Anbar province)
Al-Hayali
Al-Jubour
Al-Lihaib
Al-Bu Hamad
Al-Bu Hamdan
Al-Bu Badran
Al-Bu Mitaywit
Al-Ugaydat
Al-Jihaysh
Hadid
Bayyat
Khazraj
Descendants of the Khazraj section of the Ansar
Shammar
Tayy
Note: SHAMMAR is a subsection of the Tayy

Tikrit area
Al-Bu Nasir (in Tikrit)
Al-Bu Latif
Hadithiyyin
Rifa'iyyin
Al-Ubayd
Al-Azza
Al-Bu Farraj
Jawa'ina (in Baiji)
Lihayb (in Sharqat)
Al-Mushahadah (in Tarmiya)
An individual from this tribe will have the name of Mash-hadani
Al-Mashayikh in Tarmiya and in Al-Hawejah(The individual called Al-Mashayikhi)

Najaf area
Al-Bu Dush
Al-Fatla
Al-Ghazalat
Al-Jaryu
Al-'Isa
Al-Shibil
Al-Zagarit
Bani Hassan
Bani Assad
Kaab

Hilla area
Al-Bu Sultan
Al-Bu Amir
Al-Masoud
Al-Jubour
Al-Janabi
Al-Ma'amra
Al-Dulaym
Al-Qarraghul
Shammar
Zoba'a
Zubayd
Jihaysh
Khafaja

Amarah area
Bani Lam
Al-Bu Mohammed
Al-Izayrij
Al-Bu Darraj
Al-Sudan
Al-Beidhan
Al-Sarai
Al-Bahadil
Al-Suwa'id
Al-Issa
Al-Maryan
Al-Bazzoun

Basra area
BANI KA'B
Bani Malik
Bani Assad
Bani Mansour
BANI TAMIM
Bani Khalid
Al-Shirish
Al-Sayamur
Al-Mayyah
Al-Duwasir (Bedouin)
Al-Mutawr
Al-Mutayr (Bedouin)
Al-Halaf
Al-Eidan
Al-Gatarna
Al-Garamsha
Al-Suwa'id
Al-Ghanim
Khafaja
Rubai'a

Nasiriyah area
Al-Bu Salih
Al-Sa'eed
Al-Abbouda
Al-Jawabir
Al-Dhufayr
Al-Dulaym
Al-Qarraghul
Al-Husseinat
Al-Sharifat
Al-Shuwailat
Al-Ghizi
Al-Bidor
Al-Jubour
Bani Rikab
Bani Hassan
Bani Khaigan
Bani Assad
Bani Zaid
Chinana
Hacham
Al-Sa'doun (Tribal leaders of the Muntafiq federation that ruled southern Iraq, Kuwait and northern Arabia)

Al Diwaniyah area
Khaza'il
Al-Bidayr
Al-Jubour
Al-Agra'
Al-Zeyad
Al-Ibrahim
Al-Bahahtha
Al-Dulaym
Al-Zirfat
Al-Kurd
Al-A'ajeeb
Al-Ardhiyat
Al-Izayrij
Bani Hacheem
Afaj
Zubayd
Chabsha

Kut area
Rubai'a
Al-Shohman
Zubayd
Shammar Toga
Bani Lam
Giraish
Al-Mayyah
Al-Magasis
Al-Dulaym
Al-Jubour

Kirkuk area
Al-Ubayd
Al-Jubour
Al-Ni'aim
Al-Bayyat
Al-Azza
Al-Tamimi
Bani Zaid
Shammar
Harb
Qays
Jibari (Kurdish)
Dawoudi (Kurdish)
Salehi (Kurdish)
Shwann (Kurdish)
Zengena (Kurdish)

Baquba area
Shammar
Bani Tamim
Bani Zaid
Bani Ways
Bani Lam
Al-Azza
Al-Ubayd
Al-Ambakiya
Al-Bayyat
Al-Girtan
Al-Tatran
Al-Ma'amra
Al-Jubour
Al-Mujama'
Al-Dafaf'a
Al-Sigoug
Al-Karkhiya
Al-Khishalat
Al-Maghamis
Al-Zuhairiya
Al-Dainiya
Al-Suwa'id
Al-Dilfiya
Al-Ridainiya
Al-Nida
Al-Sumaida'
Al-Bu Jawari
Qays
Khafaja
Rubai'a
Shammar Toga

Ramadi area
Al-Dulaym
Al-Ugaydat
Al-Jaghayfa
Al-Lihaib
Al-Halabsa
Al-Ma'adhid
Al-Jubour
Shammar
Zoba'a (Zoba is a subsection of Shammer)
Aniza

Other northern tribes
Al-Bayyat
It is said that this was originally a Turkmen tribe
that later mixed with the al-'UBAYD

Al-Hadid (plural al-Hadidiyun)
The Bani Harb
Al-Saadun
Al-Shammawi
'UBAYD (in the southern Haweeja plains)

Basra Families
Descendants of the noble family of the Prophet Muhammad
Barakat
al-Naqib
From the Bani Khalid (Khawalid)
Muhammad Al-'Isa
Al-'Abdul-Wahid
Najdi families
al-Zuhair
Other families
al-Khudairy
al-Mandeel
al-Nama
al-Rasheed
al-Thukair
Baraak
Basha-Ayan
Bacha-Chi
Sheikh Khaz'al
Khan (Mohammed Khan Family)

Bedouin tribes
'ANIZA (pronounced 'Iniza) (The Royal families of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain are traced to this tribe. The sheikh general lives in western Iraq. This is one of the largest Arab Bedouin tribes, with clans in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Gulf countries, Iraq, Jordan, Palestine, Syria, Turkey and Egypt.)
Al-Dhufayr
Al-Ghalal
Al-Hassan
Al-Mutayr
Al-Sulayb
Al-Bu Mitaywit
Harb
Shammar
Al-Kharsa
Sinjara
Zoba'a
Al-Sayih
Bani Khalid (plural Al-Khawalid)
AL- Noor

Descendants of the family of the Islamic prophet Muhammad
Al-Awadi (Najaf)
Al-Mossawi Al Yaseen (Najaf)
Al-Mushahadah in Tarmiya
Al-Ni'aym in Kirkuk, Hawija and Baghdad
Al-Bu Milais in Samarra
Al-Bu Badri in Samarra
Al-Bu Baz in Samarra
Al-Bu Aswad in Samarra
Al-Bu Abbas in Samarra
Al-Bu Darraj in Samarra
Al-Bu Issa in Samarra
Al-Bu Nissan in Samarra
Al-Bu Udhaym in Samarra
Al-Marasma in Balad, Samarra and Baquba
Al-Tarabla in Tikrit
Al-Bu Nasir in Tikrit
Al-Hadid (plural al-Hadidiyun)
Al-Naqib family in Basra
Al-Sadoun in Basra
Al-Ridaini in Basra
Barakat family in Basra
Kamuna family in Najaf
Al-Qizwini family in Najaf
Al-Tabataba'i family in Najaf
Bahr Al-Uloom family in Najaf
Al-Kharsan family in Najaf
Al-Zuwain family in Najaf
Al-Zaini family in Najaf
Al-Taliqani family in Najaf
Al-Allaq family in Najaf
Al-Faqih family in Najaf
Al-Jaza'iri family in Najaf
Al-Keshwan family in Najaf
Al-Hilu family in Najaf
Al-Safi family in Najaf
Al-Ghraifi family in Najaf
Al-Sharmuti family in Najaf
Al-Hamami family in Najaf
Al-Abu Tubikh family in Najaf
Al-Yasir in Najaf
Shubbar family in Najaf
Al-Adhari in Al Diwaniyah
Al-Suwafi in Diwaniyah
Hashimi family in Baghdad, descendants of the former royal family
Al-Gailani family in Baghdad
Al-Haideri family in Baghdad
Al-Alusi family in Baghdad
Al-Tatar family in Baghdad
Al-Wa'idh family in Baghdad
Al-Witri family in Baghdad
Al-Shahristani family in Baghdad
Al-Sadr family in Baghdad and Najaf
Al-Haboubi family in Baghdad and Najaf
Utayfa family in Baghdad
Witwit family in Hilla
Al-Rifa'i family in Basra, Baghdad, Samarra and Ana
Al-Muwashit in Ad-Dawr
Al-Mishayikhoun in Dujail
Al-A'raji family in Mosul, Baghdad and Najaf
Al-Husseini family in Mosul
Al-Bu Sab'a in Mosul
Al-Sada in Tal Afar
Al-Barzanchi family in Sulaimaniya and Arbil
Al-Naqshabandi family in Sulaimaniya
Al-Kasnazani family in Kirkuk
Al-Talabani family in Kirkuk
Al-Dawudi family in Kirkuk
Al-Rijaibat in Kirkuk and Baquba
Al-Kaysey in Baghdad

Others, to be classified
Harb (in ad-Dur)
Al-Fallujiyyin (in Falluja)
And as one may have noticed these tribes are geographically dispersed with sections and sub-sections all over the map, so to speak and that trying to find a way to 'Divide Iraq' has about as much chance as 'dividing a fruitcake into nuts, dough and fruit after it has been mixed and baked'. Further if one wishes to know a bit more about this wondrous 'Parting of the Tribes' based on ethnicity one can see from this map of genealogy that things are not that simple.

While one can discern some things that might lead an individual in one direction of thought, note that this is basic GENEALOGY, not permanent HOMELAND. And since the shortened listing will not really fit well into something short of 1m resolution imagery for all of Iraq, a simplified view of the major tribes may help, but realize that the actual boundaries of the tribes are like an actual boundary of a SNEEZE.

And then, after these Great and Wise Thinkers of All Wars Chilly put their Awesome Powers of Insight into this Matter, then perhaps the Rest of Us can leave them while They Take Tea and mull this over. Because an Iraq that is *not* Federal and that has *no* commonality of Government will Fly Apart and make the Balkans look like a Minor Familial Feud in the Appalachians. A mere Hatfields and McCoys compared to what will happen in Iraq. A failed Nation State scenario winds up with NO NATION there and the entirety of the Tribal System or lack of same holding full and absolute force as the only cohesive force LEFT if a Government fails. And as this is something that Iran and al Qaeda are set up to take full advantage of, they will DO SO. The Grand Road to Islamic Empire will be STARTED because the US was unwilling to tough out a minor back alley brawl or two, and would run out on its friends.

Realpolitik in running from Viet Nam got the World millions dead in South Viet Nam, Cambodia and Laos all due to the fact that such an ongoing fight wasn't seen as 'worth it' to the American People. It is the great thinkers like those of Realpolitik that let the USSR go into Afghanistan because they had so denuded the Nation of ability that it could NOT block them. You may remember Afghanistan as it served as an incubator for the next great threat to Freedom, Liberty and Nations.

It helped CREATE a Non-Nation State Actor that cannot be directly gotten by the Great Wisdom of all of Realpolitik. If they could not stop al Qaeda from forming nor find a way to fight it THEN and that encouraged it to grow, what makes anyone think that running from Iraq will come to ANY GOOD END AT ALL?

Because these are the exact, self-same bozos that got us INTO THIS MESS and they have ZERO idea of how to clean it up.

That is why we come here today to bury 'Realpolitik' and 'Geostrategic Diplomacy' and all the other garbage that let the Cold War drag on for DECADES when the USSR was one of the weakest industrialized Nations on the Planet. These swell fools want a 'balance of power' where NONE exists. They have NO idea of how to fight 'Asymmetrical War' or of dealing with 'Non-Nation State Warfare'. It is time to bury these ideas as they have helped NO ONE and put us ALL in dire danger by encouraging a way to bring down ALL Nations and then telling us that they can't figure out how to STOP IT.

I prefer to stand with the much more 'on the ground' group that Founded this Nation as they gave us ALL THE TOOLS to fight such threats. They still sit there to be used if we ever get away from this daft notion of using simplistic ends to justify obtuse means that do not ever get to the ends they are intended for. Thinking in such a way is stepping in front of a speeding bus expecting that one will then figure out how to tunnel into the ground in a second or two. I classify it as a "Non-Survival Mode of Thought". Because it IS suicidal.

If we do not bury this mode of thought, then it will, assuredly BURY US.

6 comments:

John Eyler said...

Okay, as posts go that was ....wow.

A Jacksonian said...

John - Every so often I do find a way to say a thing or two... remember to check out my plan to stabilize Iraq... it is something where I am sure I will offend everyone.

My thanks for dropping by!

SERENDIP said...

Excellent post.

Read my post "Feeding the Hand that Bites You, Part II!"

http://fleetingperusal.blogspot.com

A Jacksonian said...

Serendip - My thanks! And thank you for visiting... I am glad you found the stop worthwhile.

matto said...

very nice post.

A Jacksonian said...

matto - My thanks!