Showing posts with label Mexico. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mexico. Show all posts

10 August 2008

The Presidential gut-check

The following is a cross-post from The Jacksonian Party.

The following is a position paper of The Jacksonian Party.

The small Nation of Georgia has sought, and hard, to reach out to the United States and support us, looking towards the US as a friend of liberty.  As part of that they have welcomed our training of their armed forces and have contributed the largest contingent per population size of any Nation in helping us in Iraq (Source and excellent read at Mudville Gazette).  With the current military actions of Russia over the 'breakaway' region of South Ossetia Georgia is recalling the 20% of its fighting force that it has dedicated to the mission in Iraq.  In this series of operations, Russia has been a clear antagonist towards Georgia in being the only Nation to recognize South Ossetia and then supply it with backing and encouraging it to antagonize Georgia via military means.  This is the view of Ralph Peters in his NY Post article and Anne Applebaum, who has been covering the region for years, in her WaPo column.  Austin Bay looks at this is part of an ongoing way of Russia in 'working on' small Nations, citing Kosovo for historical reference.

Michael Totten had coincidentally been scheduled to head to the region and offers this piece at Slate as backgrounder, and also offers a previous piece by Anne Applebaum.

Another ally of the United States, our longest friend in Europe, Poland (Source: Polish Radio at thenews.pl), stands up against Russian intimidation and attempts to dominate Georgia.  This was done in coordination with the leaders of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia as a co-release:

The presidents of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have issued a joint statement condemning what they see as the naked aggression of Russia against the independent state of Georgia, as hostilities continue in the breakaway state of South Ossetia.

The statement says: “The European Union and NATO must take up the initiative and oppose the spread of imperialist and revisionist policy in the east of Europe.”

President Lech Kaczynski told TVP public television that Poland had a mission to inform western countries, and the EU in particular, of the nature of the aggression by Moscow.

He underlined that any peacekeepers in the region must be international. “That peacekeeping troops [in South Ossetia] are only from Russia is simply a farce,” he said.

The President said that Poland would offer Georgia any help it asked for. “We are not planning to send any troops there, but anything is possible.”

Poland, if anyone cares to remember, sent light cavalry to the United States when we had none in a time of dire need by us. 

That time was called the Revolutionary War.

From this we can see how the two major party candidates reacted.

On 08 AUG 2008 Sen. John McCain said the following about this, as reported by the WaPo's Michael D. Shear:

The news reports indicate that the Russian military forces crossed an internationally recognized border into the sovereign territory of Georgia. Russia should immediately and unconditionally cease its military operations and withdraw all forces from sovereign Georgian territory. What is most critical now is to avoid further confrontation between Russian and Georgian military forces. The consequences of Euro-Atlantic stability and security are grave. The government of Georgia has called for a cease fire and for resumption of direct talks on South Ossetia with international mediators. The U.S. should immediately convene an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council to call on Russia to reverse course. The U.S. should immediately work with the E.U. and the OSCE to put diplomatic pressure on Russia to reverse this perilous course that it has chosen.

We should immediately call a meeting of the North Atlantic Council to assess Georgia's security and review measures NATO can take to contribute to stabilizing this very dangerous situation. Finally, the international community needs to establish a truly independent and neutral peacekeeping force in South Ossetia.

That is a prime 'gut-check' response by anyone wanting to be a President of the United States: a friend of liberty helping our friends to rally around liberty when it is under siege by a tyrant.

At Politico, Ben Smith on 08 AUG 2008 reported the following, starting with Sen. Obama's statement:

“I strongly condemn the outbreak of violence in Georgia, and urge an immediate end to armed conflict,” Obama said in a written statement. “Now is the time for Georgia and Russia to show restraint and to avoid an escalation to full-scale war. Georgia’s territorial integrity must be respected.”

Obama added briefly that the international community should get involved. More than an hour later, as more details of Russia’s incursion into Georgia emerged, he cited Russia more directly: “What is clear is that Russia has invaded Georgia’s sovereign — has encroached on Georgia’s sovereignty,” he told reporters in Sacramento.

[..]

John McCain’s top foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann, defended McCain’s direct criticism of Russia in the early hours of the crisis.

"Sen. McCain is clearly willing to note who he thinks is the aggressor here,” he said, dismissing the notion that Georgia’s move into its renegade province had precipitated the crisis. "I don't think you can excuse, defend, explain or make allowance for Russian behavior because of what is going on in Georgia.”

He also criticized Obama for calling on both sides to show “restraint,” and suggested the Democrat was putting too much blame on the conflict’s clear victim.

“That's kind of like saying after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, that Kuwait and Iraq need to show restraint, or like saying in 1968 [when the Soviet Union invaded Czechoslovakia] ... that the Czechoslovaks should show restraint,” he said.

A foreign policy adviser for Obama, Ben Rhodes, said Obama was deliberately measured in response to the conflict, balancing his disapproval of Russia’s “troubling behavior in its near-abroad region” with “the fact that we have to deal with Russia to deal with our most important national security challenges.”

Rhodes declined to discuss McCain’s statement directly, but did indirectly criticize it.

"The temperature of your rhetoric isn't a measure of your commitment to Georgian sovereignty,” he said, noting that the two candidates’ statements shared a substantive commitment to Georgia’s borders. “You don't want to get so far in front of a situation that you're feeding the momentum of an escalation.”

Critics of McCain’s stance said he’d imposed ideology on a complicated situation in which both sides bear some blame.

“McCain took an inflexible approach to addressing this issue by focusing heavily on one side, without a pragmatic assessment of the situation,” said Mark Brzezinski, a former Clinton White House official and an informal adviser to Obama.

“It’s both sides’ fault — both have been somewhat provocative with each other,” he said.

[..]

A public relations firm working for the Russian Federation pointed out Scheunemann’s lobbying past to reporters — a sign that McCain’s stance is not, for better or worse, being welcomed in Moscow — as did Obama’s campaign.

“John McCain’s top foreign policy adviser lobbied for, and has a vested interest in, the Republic of Georgia and McCain has mirrored the position advocated by the government,” said Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan, noting that the “appearance of a conflict of interest” was a consequence of McCain’s too-close ties to lobbyists.

Scheunemann dismissed the criticism, saying he severed his ties to his firm and to his client on March 1 and noting that McCain has been a firm supporter of Georgia’s move toward the West, and away from Russia, since the Arizona senator’s first visit there in 1997.

What Sen. Obama did is come out with not only pabulum, but an unmeasured response that did not take into account Georgia's commitment to helping the United States.  While we work with Russia, we cannot consider it a friend in much of anywhere in the world where it operates.  It is a large Nation and gets consideration due to that size, but liberty and freedom are commitments that go beyond the mere size of a Nation in geography or population.  Even worse, in backing a Russian line on Mr. Scheunemann, Sen. Obama is taking sides in the conflict with the non-liberty embracing Russia against the interests of the US in promoting liberty and freedom abroad.

Further the comments of Mr. Brzezinski show the influence of his father (and both have influence in this campaign, apparently), Zbigniew, who had the unfortunate position of first backing the Shah of Iran, then trying to find if 'moderates' in Iran would take part in some sort of 'Islamic Green buffer zone' between the West and the USSR.  I have detailed Sen. Obama's problematical 'foreign policy team' along with the past views of Sen. McCain.

The one thing the Cold War did demonstrate is the United States *must* be a staunch advocate of liberty and freedom in more than just rhetoric, which is why the response from Sen. McCain demonstrating knowledge of the situation and having previously supported a Nation that supports the US is one to be respected.  As Mr. Smith notes, the view taken by Sen. Obama is a 'European one' that does not apparently recognize that Russia is also seeking to bring all of the pipelines from the Far East that supply Europe with oil and natural gas under the sway if not direct control of Russia.

In this, the most primal of gut checks for who you would vote for as President, Sen. Obama loses and clearly does so by backing a tyrannical regime's attempts to meddle in US politics and puts the blame 'equally' where the blame is unequal and weighs heavily towards one side.

By supporting a friend and ally of the US, Sen. McCain wins and if Poland seeks to step in and asks for our help in remedying the situation, then the current President should back that.

Because liberty is purchased by feeding the Great Tree with the blood of tyrants and patriots, both.

You do not play political games with those who have come to the US seeking our help in securing their own liberty and befriending our Nation in such a hard fight as in Iraq.

 

Both candidates have also had a chance to get a 'gut-check' on another issue, far closer to home, in the area of international affairs:  Mexico.

From AZ Central on 07 AUG 2008, Sean Holstege of the Arizona Republic reports the following:

Four Mexican army soldiers entered southern Arizona and pointed their rifles at a U.S. Border Patrol agent early this week, the Border Patrol said.

The incident Sunday was the Mexican military's 43rd incursion across the U.S. border since October, the agency said. However, it was unusual because firearms were involved. The Border Patrol and the Mexican government are investigating, Border Patrol spokesman Mike Scioli said.

Details remain sketchy, but the incident occurred at 2 a.m. on the Tohono O'odham Indian Reservation about 50 miles southeast of Ajo. The incident took place just north of the border in sight of the new border fence.

[..]

In Washington, D.C., State Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos said the encounter "stemmed from a momentary misunderstanding as to the exact location of the U.S.-Mexican border."

A 'border fence' is a clear demarcation line of a border.

This incident took place within sight of that fence to the North, clearly in US sovereign territory.

I have examined this previously (here) and find that Congress had the Library of Congress create a report looking at the slow incursion of money and foreign operatives with arms into Northern Mexico, and looking to disrupt and take over the old cartel based crime syndicates.  That report, in 2003, detailed influence from Russian Mafia groups, Islamic terrorist organizations, and from FARC which used to have better control over such criminal operations after it took over the old cartel businesses in the late 1990's.  Last year the monthly violence in Northern Mexico passed the violence of levels for Iraq, both heading in opposite directions with Iraq's down and Mexico's up.

As part of the influence brought by outside funds, the Mexican Federal Police and Army have been corrupted to an extent that the older cartels were unable to do.  In many cases individuals now utilize their positions of power (even in such places as the judiciary in Mexico) to aid and abet these purely criminal operations now trending towards terrorist means.

To date neither campaign nor the current President have been able to offer a clear defense of the US border and its sovereignty.  As that is done in neglecting the corrupting influence of organized crime in Northern Mexico, the violence has been spreading with criminal hit squads starting to show up in the US to take out US criminals and take over their local operations.

Many have offered that 'Sen. McCain saw clearly in Iraq on COIN'.

Very well: what is Sen. McCain's view on the COIN needs of the SW United States along the Mexican border now that Mexico is falling into a criminal based insurgency with backing from larger organized crime and terrorist groups?

Sen. Obama is absolutely clueless here and has demonstrated that for months.

Sen. McCain has done no better and some worse in not making any statement that would antagonize the Hispanic population in the US, forgetting that many came to the US to get AWAY from such situations and to be SAFE in a Nation they could call their own.

In this gut-check, they both lose, and horribly.

I expect nothing from Sen. Obama and he consistently delivers less.

I expect much from what those touting Sen. McCain have said about him: he under-performs and is often self-contradictory in his skills and ability to analyze a situation.

As both of these situations are primal defenses of liberty and freedom at home and abroad, I expect any candidate to get both of them RIGHT.  Otherwise the days of refugee camps being reported upon will not be overseas, but right here at home.

I heartily applaud giving good, hard support to our friends and allies abroad.

I damned well expect to have our own liberty and freedom protected from military incursions, criminal insurgencies and not 'helped' by a government that takes liberties in exchange for increased taxation, thus diminishing liberty further.

Defense of the Nation must include supporting those that support the US, and I look for any good signs that we will do so with Georgia as, although having problems, they DESERVE IT.

And so do WE.

Right there, along that southern border before it goes to hell, and the next deployment for major COIN operations is not in Iraq or Afghanistan, but places like Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, California, Nevada... unless you really like the idea of refugee camps in such places as Oklahoma, Colorado, Utah?

America can support freedom abroad and insure our own at home:  it is a prerequisite of those running for President to understand that.

Or God Help the United States, because no one else WILL.

13 April 2008

Trade, agriculture and Wealth of Nations

After looking at the problem in Mexico due to NAFTA, namely that Mexico has seen its traditional bottom rungs of the economic ladder removed first by the exposure to highly automated US agricultural goods, then to the industrialization/de-industrialization happening on the US/Mexican border as US companies first stood up industries in that corridor and then shifted production to even lower cost China and the Far East, and then getting the final whammy of skyrocketing corn prices as US ethanol production began to surge.  To be considered a stalwart friend and ally, these are not things a nation should encourage its industries to do, nor should treaties be signed to target the very poorest of a Nation.  Free trade has its limits, and while the long-term may be somewhat brighter, the immediate short-term indicates a rising criminal insurgency as those organizations able to exploit low cost labor do so:  organized crime.  This is not the traditional Mexican organized crime cartels, as they have been liquidated by the rising drug gangs first along the border and then deeper into Mexico.  These gangs are fueled by multiple sources, as I cited in the last article:  FARC, S. American drug kingpins and gangs, Red Mafia groups, and a small but troubling presence of Islamic terrorist organizations like HAMAS, Hezbollah and al Qaeda.  This is not their order of danger, however, as that would be relatively reversed, and it is not their order of financial ability to back an insurgency, where the Red Mafia would be supreme.

What has fueled this is the notion that 'free trade' as it applies to agriculture is a 'boon' to all involved.  And the typical first citation for free trade comes from those on the Right who point to Adam Smith and his work An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, available at Project Gutenberg, normally addressed as Wealth of Nations (WoN).  This is the first of the great economic inquiries into why and how industrial production of the individual function allotted to an individual in a production schema yields higher output for the entire system.  As such it is groundbreaking and highly insightful into what would become the production line and is an essential blueprint for it.  Further the recognition of the absolutely key factor of overseas trade as a lynchpin for increased economic activity is as applicable to today's world as it was to Smith's world.  Indeed, the entire description of distributed and specialized production described in WoN, almost perfectly, today's computer industry where parts from Ireland, Germany, India, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, China, Japan and the US allow for the PC platform, as a whole, to be driven downwards in price and upwards in capacity at a truly awe inspiring rate.  These technologies, in turn, are transforming societies across the globe and establishing a new and distributed form of thinking and approaching technology and trade.

WoN is one of many seminal works that came from the latter part of the 18th century, and is the same lineage as the work by Emmerich de Vattel on The Law of Nations, available at constitution.org).  These two works, taken as a whole, describes a system of nation states that is the full and foundational basis for the modern world: without these two works and the seminal understandings of nations and economies, there would be no founding for the entire set of discussions that would happen thereafter to better create, regulate and regularize that system of nations and trade between nations.  On the more amusing flip-side, that same system, without description or backing by rational discourse and understanding would *still* come about, although it would be necessary to describe it and then derive LoN and WoN to accurately understand what was going on and *why* it was happening.

The only thing that could be seen as lacking from that era, was an understanding that the derived products of that described system would form a feed-back loop into the entire economic cycle from top to bottom.  The only place that Adam Smith would fall down is the one we are now living with as it was a trifling oversight at the time, and yet has extreme ramifications for our modern era.  Now if any writer beyond myself needed a copy editor it is Adam Smith who, perhaps, wrote with a density of ideas that made the normal paragraph wither in its draftiness, so I will need to try and break out ideas from within longer paragraphs, which will do some violence to the overall host paragraph, but I will do my best to address that as I go along.

When looking at the nature of industrial piecework, that is the subdivision of a job into many smaller job functions, each performed by a dedicated individual, the first problem that strikes the modern eye is this, from Chapter I, Part I, and this is an *excerpt*:

The nature of agriculture, indeed, does not admit of so many subdivisions of labour, nor of so complete a separation of one business from another, as manufactures. It is impossible to separate so entirely the business of the grazier from that of the corn-farmer, as the trade of the carpenter is commonly separated from that of the smith. The spinner is almost always a distinct person from the, weaver; but the ploughman, the harrower, the sower of the seed, and the reaper of the corn, are often the same. The occasions for those different sorts of labour returning with the different seasons of the year, it is impossible that one man should be constantly employed in any one of them. This impossibility of making so complete and entire a separation of all the different branches of labour employed in agriculture, is perhaps the reason why the improvement of the productive powers of labour, in this art, does not always keep pace with their improvement in manufactures. The most opulent nations, indeed, generally excel all their neighbours in agriculture as well as in manufactures; but they are commonly more distinguished by their superiority in the latter than in the former. Their lands are in general better cultivated, and having more labour and expense bestowed upon them, produce more in proportion to the extent and natural fertility of the ground. But this superiority of produce is seldom much more than in proportion to the superiority of labour and expense. In agriculture, the labour of the rich country is not always much more productive than that of the poor; or, at least, it is never so much more productive, as it commonly is in manufactures. The corn of the rich country, therefore, will not always, in the same degree of goodness, come cheaper to market than that of the poor. The corn of Poland, in the same degree of goodness, is as cheap as that of France, notwithstanding the superior opulence and improvement of the latter country. The corn of France is, in the corn-provinces, fully as good, and in most years nearly about the same price with the corn of England, though, in opulence and improvement, France is perhaps inferior to England. The corn-lands of England, however, are better cultivated than those of France, and the corn-lands of France are said to be much better cultivated than those of Poland. But though the poor country, notwithstanding the inferiority of its cultivation, can, in some measure, rival the rich in the cheapness and goodness of its corn, it can pretend to no such competition in its manufactures, at least if those manufactures suit the soil, climate, and situation, of the rich country. The silks of France are better and cheaper than those of England, because the silk manufacture, at least under the present high duties upon the importation of raw silk, does not so well suit the climate of England as that of France. But the hardware and the coarse woollens of England are beyond all comparison superior to those of France, and much cheaper, too, in the same degree of goodness. In Poland there are said to be scarce any manufactures of any kind, a few of those coarser household manufactures excepted, without which no country can well subsist.

Here the main ideas are as follows: agriculture is not easily labor divisible due to seasonal timing and instancing of labor types, and, increased cultivation does not necessarily mean increase in bounty of harvest or to a better product, overall.  The major inventions up to that point in time, in agriculture were ones that seemed incredibly stable for production of farm goods.  The plough, first seen in 4000 BC, had caused the first and greatest upheaval of mankind as one individual could now produce more food goods than were required for himself or his family.  What that did was attach individuals to a plot of land to attend to, and would cause the rise of towns and trade centers.  Soon afterwards the use of animal and human waste as fertilizer and irrigation, would spur on agriculture in the fertile crescent while the Nile would provide a similar boon to Egypt.  Adam Smith does a splendid job recounting these changes across a diverse set of areas from Egypt to India in looking at the basis for agriculture as he knew it.  WoN is a deeply historical work, drawing on historical knowledge and precedents to offer insight into modern reasoning on economics, which also makes it a fantastic history text for economics.

By the time of the 18th century, the oxen or horse pulled plough, use of canals for transport and the need to put permanent buildings down for agriculture is centuries old.  While the iron and steel plough would replace wooden and copper ones, the actual business of farming remained unchanged.  And, until the start of larger cultivators drawn by animals and the first animal drawn combines in the early 19th century, the ability to see any end to this basic system of agriculture  was not apparent.  Even to this day, the modern farm often has a farmer of workman doing many unrelated tasks during a working day, that are not amenable to piecework.  But even this is changing as the entire business of agriculture is seeing the first prototype Robofarm being set up in California that requires a grand total of one individual to run it.  In less than 250 years modern technology has transformed agriculture like no other business on the planet, allowing far fewer individuals to produce more goods than ever before.

In the US the stand-down of the need for a large agricultural workforce and the need for a growing industrial workforce went in tandem.  The demographic shift from the first steam driven combines dovetailed neatly at the end of the 19th century with the stand-up of the factories to produce the raw materials for a new and industrialized nation.  In less than 50 years from the end of the 19th century to 1940, the US went from a majority agricultural labor force to a majority manufacturing labor force, and yet farm production grew because of this.  To accomplish this, however, agriculture went from humans performing many disparate tasks to machines doing that and then, as the name implies, combining multiple tasks into one machine and now having multi-purpose, multi-task machines that can change tasks as needed.

Adam Smith was cognizant of these things, however, and addressed them:

The establishment of any new manufacture, of any new branch of commerce, or of any new practice in agriculture, is always a speculation from which the projector promises himself extraordinary profits. These profits sometimes are very great, and sometimes, more frequently, perhaps, they are quite otherwise; but, in general, they bear no regular proportion to those of other old trades in the neighbourhood. If the project succeeds, they are commonly at first very high. When the trade or practice becomes thoroughly established and well known, the competition reduces them to the level of other trades.

Secondly, this equality in the whole of the advantages and disadvantages of the different employments of labour and stock, can take place only in the ordinary, or what may be called the natural state of those employments.

Which brings us to the Third World, poor capital investment and the inability of poor nations to get regularized, liberal economies that actually are of benefit to the greater society of those nations.  Part of the problem of the modern day world is that all nations do not adapt nor cope equally to change, nor have societies that see a need to adopt new and better methods of employment, manufacturing or agriculture.  Those who press 'free trade' as the universal panacea and then take up the view 'well their societies will adjust over decades' take a very patronizing view of this most reasonable view on the efficacy of trade and increased manufacturing as a result of it.  Even worse, in not recognizing that the underpinnings at the lowest level of the 'free trade' argument are based upon a relatively fixed view of the lowest and most needful type of work, that of agriculture,  the profession of 'free trade' to economies where large percentages of the population are *still* in subsistence agriculture means an uprooting of a vast swath of the population as older and less efficient means of agricultural production are exposed to the most modern and capital intensive forms of agribusiness the planet has to offer.

This is, in many respects, a Faustian bargain, where the supposed greater good of removing trade barriers for agriculture means that social unrest on a vast scale is not only likely but probable.  And it is this bargain that runs straight into the other work, Law of Nations.  In Book I, starting at paragraph 12, the object of a nation is its own preservation and perfection, that is to render government to the ends of civil society and to have government that will achieve accord with the society that it is beholden to.  That societal view is summed up in this paragraph:

§ 15. What is the end of civil society.

The end or object of civil society is to procure for the citizens whatever they stand in need of for the necessities, the conveniences, the accommodation of life, and, in general, whatever constitutes happiness, — with the peaceful possession of property, a method of obtaining justice with security, and, finally, a mutual defence against all external violence.

It is now easy to form a just idea of the perfection of a state or nation: — every thing in it must conspire to promote the ends we have pointed out.

Nothing overly complex in overview, and echoed years later as 'life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness'... you didn't think that was original with Jefferson, did you?  Vattel then goes through, piece by piece on constitutions (or lack of same) civil law, and onwards to the responsibility of the sovereign (or ruling organization) of a nation.  Starting at Chapter VI, looking at good government... you do know that there is an actual, real, definition of good government that pre-exists the US, right?... there is this most wonderful of juxtapositions that ties two things together:

§ 72. The object of society points out the duties of the sovereign.

AFTER these observations on the constitution of the state, let us now proceed to the principal objects of a good government. We have seen above (§§ 41 and 42) that the prince, on his being invested with the sovereign authority, is charged with the duties of the nation in relation to government. In treating of the principal objects of a wise administration, we at once show the duties of a nation towards itself, and those of the sovereign towards his people.

A wise conductor of the state will find in the objects of civil society the general rule and indication of his duties. The society is established with the view of procuring, to those who are its members, the necessaries, conveniences, and even pleasures of life, and, in general, every thing necessary to their happiness, — of enabling each individual peaceably to enjoy his own property, and to obtain justice with safety and certainty, — and, finally, of defending themselves in a body against all external violence (§ 15). The nation, or its conductor, should first apply to the business of providing for all the wants of the people, and producing a happy plenty of all the necessaries of life, with its conveniences and innocent and laudable enjoyments. (25). As an easy life without luxury contributes to the happiness of men, it likewise enables them to labour with greater safety and success after their own perfection, which is their grand and principal duty, and one of the ends they ought to have in view when they unite in society,

§ 73. To take care that there be a sufficient number of workmen.

To succeed in procuring this abundance of every thing, it is necessary to take care that there be a sufficient number of able workmen in every useful or necessary profession. (26) An attentive application on the part of government, wise regulations, and assistance properly granted, will produce this effect without using constraint, which is always fatal to industry.

§ 74. To prevent the emigration of those that are useful.

Those workmen that are useful ought to be retained in the state; to succeed in retaining them, the public authority has certainly a right to use constraint, if necessary. (27) Every citizen owes his personal services to his country; and a mechanic, in particular, who has been reared, educated, and instructed in its bosom, cannot lawfully leave it, and carry to a foreign land that industry which he acquired at home, unless his country has no occasion for him, (27) or he cannot there obtain the just fruit of his labour and abilities. Employment must then be procured for him; and, if, while able to obtain a decent livelihood in his own country, he would without reason abandon it, the state has a right to detain him. (28) But a very moderate use ought to be made of this right, and only in important or necessary cases. Liberty is the soul of abilities and industry: frequently a mechanic or an artist, after having long travelled abroad, is attracted home to his native soil by a natural affection, and returns more expert and better qualified to render his country useful services. If certain extraordinary cases be excepted, it is best in this affair to practise the mild methods of protection, encouragement, &c., and to leave the rest to that natural love felt by all men for the places of their birth.

§ 75. Emissaries who entice them away.

As to those emissaries who come into a country to entice away useful subjects, the sovereign has a right to punish them severely, and has just cause of complaint against the power by whom they are employed.

In another place, we shall treat more particularly of the general question, whether a citizen be permited to quit the society of which he is a member. The particular reasons concerning useful workmen are sufficient here.

§ 76. Labour and industry must be encouraged.

The state ought to encourage labour, to animate industry, (29) to excite abilities, to propose honours, rewards, privileges, and so to order matters that every one may live by his industry. In this particular, England deserves to be held up as an example. The parliament incessantly attends to these important affairs, in which neither care nor expense is spared. (30) And do we not even see a society of excellent citizens formed with this view, and devoting considerable sums to this use? Premiums are also distributed in Ireland to the mechanics who most distinguish themselves in their profession. Can such a state fail of being powerful and happy?

Where 'free trade' runs into the LoN, it is nations that govern, not the beauty of trade.  We can speak of the lack of wisdom of other governments that do not seek the prosperity of trade or that prevent it outright, but an enticement to more and better trade must be done within the bounds of what is good and right for the nations involved.  Indeed, in LoN an entire chapter is devoted to Commerce (Ch. VIII) and this is the context of trade in which Adam Smith is talking about, starting from the beginning of Ch. VIII in LoN:

§ 83. Of home and foreign trade.

IT is commerce that enables individuals and whole nations to procure those commodities which they stand in need of, but cannot find at home. Commerce is divided into home and foreign trade. (34) The former is that carried on in the state between the several inhabitants; the latter is carried on with foreign nations.

§ 84. Utility of the home trade.

The home trade of a nation is of great use; it furnishes all the citizens with the means of procuring whatever they want, as either necessary, useful, or agreeable; it causes a circulation of money, excites industry, animates labour, and, by affording subsistence to a great number of people, contributes to increase the population and power of the state.

§ 85. Utility of foreign trade.

The same reasons show the use of foreign trade, which is moreover attended with these two advantages: — 1. By trading with foreigners, a nation procures such things as neither nature nor art can furnish in the country it occupies. And secondly, if its foreign trade be properly directed, it increases the riches of the nation, and may become the source of wealth and plenty. Of this the example of the Carthaginians among the ancients, and that of the English and Dutch among the moderns, afford remarkable proofs. Carthage, by her riches, counterbalanced the fortune, courage, and greatness of Rome. Holland has amassed immense sums in her marshes; a company of her merchants possesses whole kingdoms in the East, and the governor of Batavia exercises command over the monarchs of India. To what a degree of power and glory has England arrived! Formerly her warlike princes and inhabitants made glorious conquests, which they afterwards lost by those reverses of fortune so frequent in war; at present, it is chiefly commerce that places in her hand the balance of Europe.

§ 86. Obligation to cultivate the home trade.

Nations are obliged to cultivate the home trade, — first, because it is clearly demonstrated from the law of nature, that mankind ought mutually to assist each other, and, as far as in their power, contribute to the perfection and happiness of their fellow-creatures: whence arises, after the introduction of private property, the obligation to resign to others, at a fair price, those things which they have occasion for, and which we do not destine for our own use. Secondly, society being established with a view that each may procure whatever things are necessary to his own perfection and happiness — and a home trade being the means of obtaining them — the obligations to carry on and improve this trade are derived from the very compact on which the society was formed. Finally, being advantageous to the nation, it is a duty the people owe to themselves, to make this commerce flourish.

§ 87. Obligation to carry on foreign trade.

For the same reason, drawn from the welfare of the state, and also to procure for the citizens every thing they want, a nation is obliged to promote and carry on a foreign trade. Of all the modern states, England is most distinguished in this respect. The parliament have their eyes constantly fixed on this important object; they effectually protect the navigation of the merchants, and, by considerable bounties, favour the exportation of superfluous commodities and merchandises. In a very sensible product,1 may be seen the valuable advantages that kingdom has derived from such judicious regulations.

This is the framework of trade that a sovereign government must attend to.  Foreign trade is not done for the benefit of the other nation involved, it is done for the benefit of one's own nation.  That is the theory, at least, but the object of dangling impossible to get at riches to societies that cannot support the means to acquire the money to trade for them is, perhaps, not the wisest of all routes to take when exciting trade with foreign nations.  In theory all nations need to look after their own welfare and it is THAT which the US should be cultivating abroad FIRST and FOREMOST, not trade agreements.  This is our understanding of the world as passed down through us and is a reasonable view to have based on nation states, from which this is a natural outgrowth. 

This is not only an attack on wealthy industries and individual using government to get trade agreements, for those who decry this offer NOTHING to put in its place to explain *why* trade *alone* is a dangerous thing to promulgate without the necessary understanding of how it operates as an underpinning.  That is old style liberalism of the school of Smith, Vattel, Grotius, Jefferson, Washington and a host of others.  Liberal trade agreements means that other nations must first understand what it is that nations do and why they do them.  And when the US presses 'free trade' agreements dangling riches out that *might* result from it, and then utilizes other agreements to leave those nations poorer, may I suggest that is a very, very illiberal thing to do?

After addressing the rights of buying and selling, and the need to support such rights and liberty, Vattel moves to this exact topic:

§ 90. Prohibition of foreign merchandise.

Every state has consequently a right to prohibit the entrance of foreign merchandises; and the nations that are affected by such prohibition have no right to complain of it, as if they had been refused an office of humanity.(37) Their complaints would be ridiculous, since their only ground of complaint would be, that a profit is refused to them by that nation who does not choose they should make it at her expense, It is, however, true, that if a nation was very certain that the prohibition of her merchandises was not founded on any reason drawn from the welfare of the state that prohibited them, site would have cause to consider this conduct as a mark of ill-will shown in this instance, and to complain of it on that fooling. But it would be very difficult for the excluded nation to judge with certainty that the state had no solid or apparent reason for making such a prohibition.

§ 91. Nature of the right of buying,

By the manner in which we have shown a nation's right to buy of another what it wants, it is easy to see that this right is not one of those called perfect, and that are accompanied with a right to use constraint. Let us now distinctly explain the nature of a right which may give room for disputes of a very serious nature. You have a right to buy of others such things as you want, and of which they themselves have no need; you make application to me: I am not obliged to sell them to you, if I myself have any occasion for them. In virtue of the natural liberty which belongs to all men, it is I who am to judge whether I have occasion for them myself, or can conveniently sell them to you; and you have no right to determine whether I judge well, or ill, because you have no authority over me. If I, improperly, and without any good reason, refuse to sell you at a fair price what you want, I offend against my duty: you may complain of this, but you must submit to it: and you cannot attempt to force me, without violating my natural right, and doing me an injury. The right of buying the things we want is then only an imperfect right, like that of a poor man to receive alms of the rich man; if the latter refuses to bestow it, the poor man may justly complain: but he has no right to take it by force.

If it be asked, what a nation has a right to do in case of extreme necessity, — this question will be answered in its proper place in the following book, Chap. IX.

§ 92. Every nation is to choose how far it will engage in commerce.

Since then a nation cannot have a natural right to sell her merchandises to another that is unwilling to purchase them, since she has only an imperfect right to buy what she wants of others, since it belongs only to these last to judge whether it be proper for them to sell or not; and finally, since commerce consists in mutually buying and selling all sorts of commodities, it is evident that it depends on the will of any nation to carry on commerce with another, or to let it alone. If she be willing to allow this to one, it depends on the nation to permit it under such conditions as she shall think proper. For in permitting another nation to trade with her, she grants that other a right; and every one is at liberty to affix what conditions he pleases to a right which he grants of his own accord.(38)

§ 93. How a nation acquires a perfect right to a foreign trade.

Men and sovereign states may, by their promises, enter into a perfect obligation with respect to each other, in things where nature has imposed only an imperfect obligation. A nation, not having naturally a perfect right to carry on a commerce with another, may procure it by an agreement or treaty. This right is then acquired only by treaties, and relates to that branch of the law of nations termed conventional (Prelim. § 24). The treaty that gives the right of commerce, is the measure and rule of that right.

§ 94. Of the simple permission of commerce.

A simple permission to carry on commerce with a nation gives no perfect right to that commerce. For if I merely and simply permit you to do any thing, I do not give you any right to do it afterwards in spite of me: — you may make use of my condescension as long as it lasts; but nothing prevents me from changing my will. As then every nation has a right to choose whether she will or will not trade with another, and on what conditions she is willing to do it (§ 92), if one nation has for a time permitted another to come and trade in the country, she is at liberty, whenever she thinks proper, to prohibit that commerce — to restrain it — to subject it to certain regulations; and the people who before carried it on cannot complain of injustice.

Let us only observe, that nations, as well as individuals, are obliged to trade together for the common benefit of the human race, because mankind stand in need of each other's assistance (Prelim. §§ 10, 11, and Book I. § 88): still, however, each nation remains at liberty to consider, in particular cases, whether it be convenient for her to encourage or permit commerce; and as our duty to ourselves is paramount to our duty to others, if one nation finds herself in such circumstances that she thinks foreign commerce dangerous to the state, she may renounce and prohibit it. This the Chinese have done for a long time together. But, again, it is only for very serious and important reasons that her duty to herself should dictate such a reserve; otherwise, she could not refuse to comply with the general duties of humanity.

§ 95. Whether the laws relating to commerce are subject to prescription. (39)

We have seen what are the rights that nations derive from nature with regard to commerce, and how they may acquire others by treaties: let us now examine whether they can found any on long custom. To determine this question in a solid manner, it is necessary first to observe, that there are rights which consist in a simple power: they are called in Latin, jura meræ facultatis, rights of mere ability. They are such in their own nature that he who possesses them may use them or not, as he thinks proper — being absolutely free from all restraint in this respect; so that the actions that relate to the exercise of these rights are acts of mere free will, that may be done or not done, according to pleasure. It is manifest that rights of this kind cannot be lost by prescription, on account of their not being used, since prescription is only founded on consent legitimately presumed; and that, if I possess a right which is of such a nature that I may or may not use it, as I think proper, without any person having a right to prescribe to me on the subject, it cannot be presumed, from my having long forborne to use it, that I therefore intend to abandon it. This right is then imprescriptible, unless I have been forbidden or hindered from making use of it, and have obeyed with sufficient marks of consent. Let us suppose, for instance, that I am entirely at liberty to grind my corn at any mill I please, and that during a very considerable time, a century if you please, I have made use of the same mill: as I have done in this respect what I thought proper, it is not to be presumed, from this long-continued use of the same mill, that I meant to deprive myself of the right of grinding at any other; and, consequently, my right cannot be lost by prescription. But now suppose, that, on my resolving to make use of another mill, the owner of the former opposes it, and announces to me a prohibition; if I obey his prohibition without necessity, and without opposition, though I have it in my power to defend myself, and know my right, this right is lost, because my conduct affords grounds for a legitimate presumption that I chose to abandon it. — Let us apply these principles. — Since it depends on the will of each nation to carry on commerce with another, or not to carry it on, and to regulate the manner in which it chooses to carry it on (§ 92), the right of commerce is evidently a right of mere ability (jus merae facultatis), a simple power, and consequently is imprescriptible. Thus, although two nations have treated together, without interruption, during a century, this long usage does not give any right to either of them; nor is the one obliged on this account to suffer the other to come and sell its merchandises, or to buy others: — they both preserve the double right of prohibiting the entrance of foreign merchandise, and of selling their own wherever people are willing to buy them. Although the English have from time immemorial been accustomed to get wine from Portugal, they are not on that account obliged to continue the trade, and have not lost the liberty of purchasing their wines elsewhere. (40) Although they have, in the same manner, been long accustomed to sell their cloth in that kingdom, they have, nevertheless, a right to transfer that trade to any other country: and the Portuguese, on their part, are not obliged by this long custom, either to sell their wines to the English, or to purchase their cloths. If a nation desires any right of commerce which shall no longer depend on the will of another, she must acquire it by treaty. (40)

§ 96. Imprescriptibility of rights founded on treaty.

What has been just said may be applied to the rights of commerce acquired by treaties. If a nation has by this method procured the liberty of selling certain merchandises to another, she does not lose her right, though a great number of years are suffered to elapse without its being used; because this right is a simple power, jus merae facultatis, which she is at liberty to use or not, whenever she pleases.

Certain circumstances, however, may render a different decision necessary, because they imply a change in the nature of the right in question. For instance, if it appears evident, that the nation granting this right granted it only with a view of procuring a species of merchandise of which she stands in need, and if the nation which obtained the right of selling neglects to furnish those merchandises, and another offers to bring them regularly, on condition of having an exclusive privilege, — it appears certain that the privilege may be granted to the latter. Thus the nation that had the right of selling would lose it, because she had not fulfilled the tacit condition.

This is plain and solid understanding of the nature of foreign trade as happening ONLY under treaty for it to be legal.

[A further note to the Law of the Seat Treaty folks:  jura meræ facultatis rules for nations in this area, and just because a power is not exercised does not mean that it does not exist.  Just because the US does not exercise her Privateering power does not mean it 'goes away', as it is an intrinsic part of the nation to have it.  Nations, unlike the mere civil or ordinary laws, do not have powers die from not being used.  Nor, indeed, do individuals nor society, and the militia power of individuals within society to adhere to the laws and yet still exercise together to form a militia to protect their State does not die over time, either, as Iraq has demonstrated.  Letting any body outside of a nation determine the use of the sea for that nation is contrary to the inherent rights of nations.  It cannot be given away by treaty, nor any other organization allowed to rule upon it for any nation.]

Of all the things heard about 'free trade', that it is the best way to do things, that it enriches all involved, that it cures poor government and creates liberty, this is perhaps the most messianic part of it:  that it is somehow a right outside of treaties and of the obligation of nations to their own people to decide this for themselves via their government.  If one complains about a nation NOT wanting that, as Vattel said, the complaint is ridiculous.  If a nation does not want a 'free trade' treaty with us and says so, then so be it.  To complain otherwise, and that 'free trade' is the best, etc., etc. is to turn economics and trade into a religion.  Trade and commerce are simple things governed by treaties put in place by nations for the benefit of their nations and, with a bit of luck, that is a non-zero sum game and it is mutually beneficial.

Heading into Ch. VI of WoN, Adam Smith starts with this:

When a nation binds itself by treaty, either to permit the entry of certain goods from one foreign country which it prohibits from all others, or to exempt the goods of one country from duties to which it subjects those of all others, the country, or at least the merchants and manufacturers of the country, whose commerce is so favoured, must necessarily derive great advantage from the treaty. Those merchants and manufacturers enjoy a sort of monopoly in the country which is so indulgent to them. That country becomes a market, both more extensive and more advantageous for their goods: more extensive, because the goods of other nations being either excluded or subjected to heavier duties, it takes off a greater quantity of theirs; more advantageous, because the merchants of the favoured country, enjoying a sort of monopoly there, will often sell their goods for a better price than if exposed to the free competition of all other nations.

Such treaties, however, though they may be advantageous to the merchants and manufacturers of the favoured, are necessarily disadvantageous to those of the favouring country. A monopoly is thus granted against them to a foreign nation; and they must frequently buy the foreign goods they have occasion for, dearer than if the free competition of other nations was admitted. That part of its own produce with which such a nation purchases foreign goods, must consequently be sold cheaper; because, when two things are exchanged for one another, the cheapness of the one is a necessary consequence, or rather is the same thing, with the dearness of the other. The exchangeable value of its annual produce, therefore, is likely to be diminished by every such treaty. This diminution, however, can scarce amount to any positive loss, but only to a lessening of the gain which it might otherwise make. Though it sells its goods cheaper than it otherwise might do, it will not probably sell them for less than they cost; nor, as in the case of bounties, for a price which will not replace the capital employed in bringing them to market, together with the ordinary profits of stock. The trade could not go on long if it did. Even the favouring country, therefore, may still gain by the trade, though less than if there was a free competition.

The very first thing that Adam Smith looks at is not 'free trade' but gaining a MONOPOLY on trade of an item or set of goods or entirely for a nation and then points out why it is bad.  That said he does not deal with why it may be necessary for nations to impose restrictions for vital national interests.  The general concept is good, but, when founded on differentials between nations that have adopted modern means of production and those that have not, the idea that the less modern nation may want to take time in adjusting its trade practices so as to keep its people employed and happy even with a slow dislocation over time is something that should not be talked against at treaty negotiations.  Openness of markets is not a good thing if it causes large scale social upheaval and dislocations of individuals and families due to resultant poverty and lack of having an economic basis for support of their family.  To continually press wanting 'free trade' when other nations have indicated that the boon of trade leads to the bane of societal upheaval, the answer from the US should not be: well, free trade will take care of that.  It should be:  we agree that your concerns are vital and respect them, and shall not speak of this again until your nation feels ready to address it.

This has a word in social parlance.

Courtesy.

When the US promises the boon of trade and increased industrial commitment to a foreign nation via a treaty, and then allows its industry to make purely temporary gains and then shift elsewhere leaving societal unrest and upheaval on OUR BORDERS may it be suggested that the US has been disingenuous on how it has treated our neighbor to the south and that, if we have commitment to helping their nation via the grand benefits of trade, that we then put in place legislation that DOES THAT?  And if Mexico is unable to adhere to a treaty because its government signed it unwisely and our national sovereignty is being threatened by a criminal and terrorist insurgency that is taking lives on a scale equivalent to that of Iraq these days, that we may have to address this issue before the next deployment for US COIN capability is just over the southern border?

Or do we not mean to back our words and treaties with our money and skills?

Because if we don't do that, it is the blood of our sons and daughters that will pay for 'free trade' that just hasn't worked out to the lovely ideals put forward for it.

This is not a question of 'leaving NAFTA', although that is bound up with it: it is a question of honoring our agreements and commitments via treaty and then expecting the EXACT, SAME, THING from our treaty partners.  Because if we aren't going to do that, then NAFTA and every other single treaty the US ever signs is *worthless* because we do not mean what we say and will not back that up with our actions.

And there is no national honor in that, from any part of the political spectrum.

12 February 2008

Where is the international law with: NAFTA?

From the North American Free Trade Agreement, highlighting via bold italics, mine.

Chapter Twelve: Cross-Border Trade in Services

Article 102: Objectives

    1. The objectives of this Agreement, as elaborated more specifically through its principles and rules, including national treatment, most-favored-nation treatment and transparency, are to:
      a) eliminate barriers to trade in, and facilitate the cross-border movement of, goods and services between the territories of the Parties;

      b) promote conditions of fair competition in the free trade area;

      c) increase substantially investment opportunities in the territories of the Parties;

      d) provide adequate and effective protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights in each Party's territory;

      e) create effective procedures for the implementation and application of this Agreement, for its joint administration and for the resolution of disputes; and

      f) establish a framework for further trilateral, regional and multilateral cooperation to expand and enhance the benefits of this Agreement.

    2. The Parties shall interpret and apply the provisions of this Agreement in the light of its objectives set out in paragraph 1 and in accordance with applicable rules of international law.

Article 1201: Scope and Coverage

[..]

3. Nothing in this Chapter shall be construed to:

    (a) impose any obligation on a Party with respect to a national of another Party seeking access to its employment market, or employed on a permanent basis in its territory, or to confer any right on that national with respect to that access or employment; or

    (b) prevent a Party from providing a service or performing a function such as law enforcement, correctional services, income security or insurance, social security or insurance, social welfare, public education, public training, health, and child care, in a manner that is not inconsistent with this Chapter.

[..]

Chapter Sixteen: Temporary Entry for Business Persons

Article 1601: General Principles

Further to Article 102 (Objectives), this Chapter reflects the preferential trading relationship between the Parties, the desirability of facilitating temporary entry on a reciprocal basis and of establishing transparent criteria and procedures for temporary entry, and the need to ensure border security and to protect the domestic labor force and permanent employment in their respective territories.

[..]

Article 1603: Grant of Temporary Entry

1. Each Party shall grant temporary entry to business persons who are otherwise qualified for entry under applicable measures relating to public health and safety and national security, in accordance with this Chapter, including the provisions of Annex 1603.

2. A Party may refuse to issue an immigration document authorizing employment to a business person where the temporary entry of that person might affect adversely:

    (a) the settlement of any labor dispute that is in progress at the place or intended place of employment; or

    (b) the employment of any person who is involved in such dispute.

3. When a Party refuses pursuant to paragraph 2 to issue an immigration document authorizing employment, it shall:

    (a) inform in writing the business person of the reasons for the refusal; and

    (b) promptly notify in writing the Party whose business person has been refused entry of the reasons for the refusal.

4. Each Party shall limit any fees for processing applications for temporary entry of business persons to the approximate cost of services rendered.

Article 1604: Provision of Information

1. Further to Article 1802 (Publication), each Party shall:

    (a) provide to the other Parties such materials as will enable them to become acquainted with its measures relating to this Chapter; and

    (b) no later than one year after the date of entry into force of this Agreement, prepare, publish and make available in its own territory, and in the territories of the other Parties, explanatory material in a consolidated document regarding the requirements for temporary entry under this Chapter in such a manner as will enable business persons of the other Parties to become acquainted with them.

2. Subject to Annex 1604.2, each Party shall collect and maintain, and make available to the other Parties in accordance with its domestic law, data respecting the granting of temporary entry under this Chapter to business persons of the other Parties who have been issued immigration documentation, including data specific to each occupation, profession or activity.

[..]

Article 2205: Withdrawal

A Party may withdraw from this Agreement six months after it provides written notice of withdrawal to the other Parties. If a Party withdraws, the Agreement shall remain in force for the remaining Parties.

Side Agreement on Labor, available here.

One of the fascinating things about NAFTA is that it was sold to help all the people in the US, Canada and Mexico. Not only the main agreement, but the labor side agreements agree to establish better working conditions, better pay, and so on, to help get fundamental workers rights established, mostly in Mexico. This, notably, has not happened.

What has happened is an increase in *trade* but not an increase in working conditions south of the border. In fact, not only has poverty not decreased in Mexico, it has increased. Harold Meyerson's column in the WaPo of 08 FEB 2006 looks at this phenomena:

The North American Free Trade Agreement was sold, of course, as a boon to the citizens of the United States, Canada and Mexico -- guaranteed both to raise incomes and lower prices, however improbably, throughout the continent. Bipartisan elites promised that it would stanch the flow of illegal immigrants, too. "There will be less illegal immigration because more Mexicans will be able to support their children by staying home," said President Bill Clinton as he was building support for the measure in the spring of 1993.

But NAFTA, which took effect in 1994, could not have been more precisely crafted to increase immigration -- chiefly because of its devastating effect on Mexican agriculture. As liberal economist Jeff Faux points out in "The Global Class War," his just-published indictment of the actual workings of the new economy, Mexico had been home to a poor agrarian sector for generations, which the government helped sustain through price supports on corn and beans. NAFTA, though, put those farmers in direct competition with incomparably more efficient U.S. agribusinesses. It proved to be no contest: From 1993 through 2002, at least 2 million Mexican farmers were driven off their land.

The experience of Mexican industrial workers under NAFTA hasn't been a whole lot better. With the passage of NAFTA, the maquiladoras on the border boomed. But the raison d'etre for these factories was to produce exports at the lowest wages possible, and with the Mexican government determined to keep its workers from unionizing, the NAFTA boom for Mexican workers never materialized. In the pre-NAFTA days of 1975, Faux documents, Mexican wages came to 23 percent of U.S. wages; in 1993-94, just before NAFTA, they amounted to 15 percent; and by 2002 they had sunk to a mere 12 percent.

The official Mexican poverty rate rose from 45.6 percent in 1994 to 50.3 percent in 2000. And that was before competition from China began to shutter the maquiladoras and reduce Mexican wages even more.

One of the thing the *free trade* folks don't tend to address is that localized agriculture, even subsistence agriculture provides a total of two necessities: food and cash. By putting poor, rural and inefficient farmers in direct, head-to-head competition with combine driven, 'green revolution' US agribusiness, that has seen the greatest productivity per person for agricultural goods on the planet, NAFTA wiped out not only cash income that could be garnered from poor Mexican farmers, but, soon, the ability to keep a roof over one's head by selling crops would dry up which meant that the *farming* went with it.

To Jacksonians, the idea that a Nation can support its poorest and most local folks trying to scratch a living for themselves while the rest of the economy works damned hard to better things all the way around is important. Even worse is when an industrial powerhouse utilizes its purchasing capability to deprive the poorest of work and food, there is seen a marked deterioration in the standard of living, ability to find work and, finally, the deterioration of society as this basis of it is no longer supported. I don't believe that this is what the 'free trade' concept was supposed to do, but that is a highly elitist concept based in a society with a high standard of living and thriving industries. That is an internal bias of economics that we tend to ignore in the US: we are rich.

Even worse, is that when an item of food is found to have more profitable utility going towards a non-food resource, say bio-fuels, the cost for that food skyrockets. If you are in a country that has just had its agricultural sector decimated by 'free trade' and no longer have support internally, then the sudden jump in cost of external food being bought up by industry is a huge shockwave to go through a people and their economy. The MIT Technology Review looks at this on 13 FEB 2007 in an article by Brittany Sauser on the effects of ethanol production in Mexico:

The recent rise in corn prices--almost 70 percent in the past six months--caused by the increased demand for ethanol biofuel has come much sooner than many agriculture economists had expected.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture, this year the country is going to use 18 to 20 percent of its total corn crop for the production of ethanol, and by next year that will jump to 25 percent. And that increase, says Marshall Martin, an agriculture economist at Purdue University, "is the main driver behind the price increase for corn."

The jump in corn prices is already affecting the cost of food. The most notable example: in Mexico, which gets much of its corn from the United States, the price of corn tortillas has doubled in the past year, according to press reports, setting off large protest marches in Mexico City. It's almost certain that most of the rise in corn prices is due to the U.S. ethanol policy, says David Victor, director of the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development at Stanford University.

So much for 'sustainable energy' involving a food crop.

Now that Mexico has had to shift away from sustainable, even if subsistence, agriculture to one of relying on cheap food from the US, the sudden economic turnaround for ethanol production has capped the effect of demoralizing the poor Mexican farmer, forcing them into poverty or even off of their land, and then whipsawing the entire population with increased food prices. Do note that when an impoverished people forced into further poverty and causing farming to become marginal for life sustainment, you are setting up conditions similar to those prior to many social upheavals, dating back to peasant revolts in the Middle Ages all the way to Russia in 1917 and numerous other revolutionary scenarios in Latin America and Africa.

'Free trade' capitalism causing Socialism? Yes, because the economic basis for Mexico was not there to sustain a 'free trade' environment and the result is millions flooding north to get *any* kind of job they could in direct and absolute contravention to international law and NAFTA itself. Yet, because this has been such a boon for the US, we have decided that giving away National Sovereignty for a good economy is well worth it, so we do *not* enforce international law or the treaty doing this by repudiating the treaty. It is doing well for the US even if we are having to sustain another Nation because they are going down the tubes because of their infrastructure problems.

The board set up to measure such things on the labor side, the NAALC, came out with their 2007 final summary up to 2006, and it has a few very interesting charts in it. One is quite traditional and shows the GDP percentage breakout of the US economy, which demonstrates our shift from manufacturing to services, pretty staid stuff, given the size of the economy from 1998-2002:

The drop from manufacturing as a percent of the economy (15.4% to 12.9%) is joined by decreases in Mining, Utilities, Wholesale and Transportation. The Services sector has picked up in IT, Financial Services and Rental/Leasing, along with Health Care and other social services with only Business Services suffering a decrement. This is something most Americans are familiar with as the economy is now one where Services dominates Manufacturing and Agriculture, completing a trend that had been going on since the 1970's.

Mexico, from the signing of NAFTA to 2002 looks very different:

That 1.2% drop in Farming, Forestry and Fishing is an indicator of a Nation gaining dependence on other sources of income. Even worse is Manufacturing going downwards by 0.6% over that period of time, the traditional interior Service of Hotels dropping by 1.7%, and Real Estate dropping 2.3%. That over 5% drop is seen getting picked up in the Services sector in Communications by 1.3% and a whopping 3.6% in Community, Social and Personal Services. That is an economy shifting from subsistence farming, moving to the cities and then looking for handouts from local communities and governments. And as the jobs in traditional sectors that led out of farming, via manufacturing and traditional services in hotels and real estate are becoming less important, there has been a societal cut-off going on.

Beyond the unrest seen due to higher food prices, there is one, other, traditional services that can *always* expand, but at a very, very high societal cost: organized crime. In 2003 the Library of Congress made a report on the Organized Crime situation in Mexico looking at 1999-2002 and the Key Findings are as follows:

Mexico’s drug trafficking and alien smuggling networks have expanded their criminal activities aimed at the United States by capitalizing on the explosive growth of transborder commerce under NAFTA and the attendant growth in human and merchandise traffic between Mexico and the United States. The growth in trans-border commerce, as manifested in soaring levels of overland passenger and commercial vehicle traffic, has provided an ever-expanding “haystack” in which the “needles” of illicit narcotics and illegal aliens can be more easily concealed.

In the wake of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States, increased border security measures temporarily heightened the risks of interdiction for Mexican drug traffickers and alien smugglers. This heightened level of risk forced smugglers to increase their reliance on sophisticated counter-detection measures, such as border tunnels, multiple repackaging of drug shipments, containerization, and rail transport.

Mexico’s three major drug cartels are being superseded by a half-dozen smaller, corporate style, trafficking networks. In a process that mirrors the post-cartel reconstitution of drug trafficking networks in Colombia, this “new generation” of Mexican drug traffickers is less prone to violence and more likely to employ sophisticated technologies and cooperative strategies. The processes that are driving Mexican drug trafficking organizations toward establishing cooperative networks of increasing sophistication and decreasing visibility are likely to intensify in the post- September 11 environment. As a result, Mexican drug trafficking networks are likely to emulate their Colombian counterparts by investing heavily in counterintelligence, expanding and diversifying their legitimate enterprises, and concealing transnational partnerships that could attract undue attention from U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies.

Alien smuggling from Mexico to the United States is a US$300 million-a-year business, second only to Mexico’s illicit drug trade in terms of revenues from criminal activities. Between 100 and 300 human smuggling rings operate in Mexico, many of which are loosely coupled with one or more of a half-dozen core human smuggling networks that have extensive transnational contacts.

A variety of Russian criminal organizations, operating through dozens of small cells, are engaged in a wide range of illegal activities in Mexico. Some Russian criminal organizations based in southern California have entered into drug trafficking partnerships with Mexican drug cartels.

Asian criminal organizations are active in Mexico as partners with domestic alien smuggling and human trafficking rings, as suppliers of primary materials for narcotics to Mexican drug traffickers, and as wholesalers and retailers of counterfeit merchandise and pirated intellectual property.

During the late 1990s, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) established a clandestine arms smuggling and drug trafficking partnership with the Tijuana-based Arellano Felix Organization (AFO).

Since the mid-1990s, Mexico, at the request of the Spanish government, has deported scores of terrorists belonging to the Basque separatist group, Fatherland and Liberty (ETA).

Statements by high-ranking Mexican officials prior to and following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks indicate that one or more Islamic extremist organizations has sought to establish a presence in Mexico.

The Red Mafia, Triads, Yakuza, Korean Mafia, Colombian cartels, FARC, ETA and some others, like Hezbollah, operating in/through/around Mexico and with their drug gangs. This, as they say, is not a pleasant thought, that 'free trade' is now going to rev up transnational organized crime *and* terrorism. The report then goes through 13 Polydrug Trafficking Organizations, 6 Northern Border Smuggling Gangs, 12 Alien Smuggling Networks, the Foreign Transnational Criminal Organizations, 9 Domestic Terrorist Organizations, and the known Foreign Terrorist Organizations mentioned above.

I thought the idea was to make things better?

Since the level of official corruption (political, police and military) is so high in Mexico, they have a definite problem clamping down on *any* of these problems. A Sign On San Diego article from the Union-Tribune 05 JAN 2008, looks at two murder victims found in Tijuana and how the new Mayor is already corrupt based on his past history with criminal organizations. The same site reported from the Union-Tribune on 18 JAN 2008 of 6 dead in a shootout featuring automatic weapons between cartel members. Even with Federal, Provincial and Local police acting together, they are having a hard time of battling the heavily armed cartels. The Chicago Tribune of 07 FEB 2008 reports on Mexican President Calderon's appeal for COIN funds to help battle this problem, to the tune of $1.4 billion. Here is part of the NAFTA agreement showing up in spades:

MEXICO CITY – In his first year in office, Mexican President Felipe Calderon has gone beyond his predecessors in declaring war against drug traffickers and organized crime, dispatching tens of thousands of troops to lead the charge.

But the enemy isn't going down without a fight. After months of improvement in security, January saw a surge in drug-related violence, including bloody battles with Mexican forces along the U.S. border. Law-enforcement officials call it a counterattack against Calderon's offensive.

In an interview Wednesday ahead of his first presidential visit to the U.S., Calderon appealed for approval of a $1.4 billion U.S. aid package proposed by President Bush to give Mexico's anti-drug battle a boost with aircraft, surveillance equipment and police training. The package has stalled in Congress.

[..]

In a wide-ranging discussion at the Los Pinos presidential compound with the Tribune and Hoy, a daily, Spanish-language newspaper owned by Tribune Co., Calderon said Mexican police and military have felt the brunt of the drug war's casualties.

But his diplomats are stressing to U.S. lawmakers that it "is affecting Americans, that it is affecting the children of those congressmen … and requires the cooperation of everyone to resolve it," he said. "It is a problem that we share as neighbors."

The Calderon administration has claimed its share of successes, including the detention of about 20,000 people linked to organized crime and an operation in October that netted 23.5 tons of cocaine, which the government trumpets as a world record.

[..]

But U.S. law-enforcement officials and security analysts say the successes have come with a price. Mexico suffered 235 drug-related murders in January, up more than 50 percent from January 2007, according to El Universal newspaper Reforma newspaper, which also tracks crime data, put the number of drug-related murders in 2007 at 2,275, a 15-percent jump from 2006.

When you are pulling in 20,000 people, you do *not* have a minor problem on your hands. In Iraq that might account for nearly 1/3 the entire insurgency. Spread over 5 years. So 20,000 people in a couple of months is not only worrying: it is frightening. And as these are criminal organizations making contacts with exterior Transnational Criminal and Terrorist operations, they have resources of their own to draw upon in the way of equipment and training. And the number being killed are those, now, seen in COIN, not just standard organized crime.

And what made this possible?

A lot of poor people seeing their chances of getting into the service sector cut off and no longer able to grow their own crops and gain some modicum of profit. Narcotics and human trafficking are far more lucrative than mere corn and rice. And as part of the COIN problem one of the things that needs to get shut down is the funding and supply sources for organized crime... and that money comes from the northern border region.

The United States.

Thank you to the vaunted two-party system for making one, lovely, possible future one in which the next COIN work we will have to do will be across our southern border... and a series of fences built not to keep the illegals *out* of the US, but to regulate US money flowing *into* Mexico that is fueling their organized crime and narcotics groups.

Perhaps it is time to re-think NAFTA before we do the exact, same thing to other parts of the world unprepared for 'free trade' because they have corrupt governments, police, military and court systems. Might be a good idea to review the basis of 'free trade' as it has things not noteworthy in most of the world: accountable governments, liberty, freedom, anti-corruption organizations in civil, political, law enforcement and military realms, and the ability to go after organized crime and terrorism. Otherwise we are asking for the much larger job of when these Nations slowly sink into a miasma of organized crime wars and terrorists roaming around.

This does mean supporting liberty, freedom and accountable governments before 'free trade'.

But then getting the 'free trade' first usually means you have a lot of trouble getting the rule of law if it wasn't there to start with.

18 September 2007

An easy terror incident to pin on...

Are we all familiar, or at least heard of, the terror incident in Mexico? You know, the oil pipelines blown up by a Leftist/Marxist group? Here, let us refresh the memory storage systems a bit:

Monday, September 17, 2007

Poor Intelligence Facilitates Mexican Bombings

By Sam Logan

Eleven bombs exploded in the early morning hours of 10 September, destroying gas pipelines operated by the Mexican state-run energy company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) in the state of Veracruz.

Operations of hundreds of companies, in at least ten Mexican states, have been offline, collectively costing the Mexican economy over US$200 million and leaving idle some 10,000 Mexican workers.

It is the third bomb attack in as many months orchestrated by the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR), a guerrilla group many believed until 10 September to be little more than an under-funded gathering of peasants from Oaxaca.

Some facts have solidified.

The EPR has the sophistication to cause significant damage to selected targets and will continue its campaign until demands are met. After the second bombing, which shut down Pemex operations in Guanajuato and Queretaro in July, this first theory was forwarded as a strong one. It is now considered a fact.

Second, the Mexican intelligence system is not prepared to deal with this domestic threat.

In a 12 September editorial published by the Mexican daily El Universal, at least one columnist believes the Mexican intelligence system is broken. The truth is likely not far from his opinion.

According to the author, an agent placed in Oaxaca, the EPR's center of activity, warned of another attack over a month ago. Agents working with the US Central Intelligence Agency’s office in Mexico City echoed these warnings with their own analysis that suggested the EPR would strike again, and soon. Neither report could narrow down the type of attack, whether it would be a bombing or the kidnapping of a politically exposed person, but both suggested the EPR would strike again.
That from Mexidata.

Ok, got it? Now, lets take a look at the Mexican group, this from Organized Crime and Terror Activity in Mexico: 1999-2002 by Ramon J. Miro and Glenn E. Curtis 01 JAN 2003, Library of Congress:
Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR)

The Popular Revolutionary Army (Ejército Popular Revolucionario–EPR) first emerged in Guerrero state in June 1996 as an alliance of 14 underground revolutionary groups. The guerilla alliance that gave birth to the EPR was a response to systematic police brutality against local villages in Guerrero, which culminated in the massacre of 18 peasants in the municipality of Coyuca de Benítez in June 1995. At the commemoration of the Coyuca de Benítez massacre in 1996, the EPR issued a “Manfesto of Aguas Blancas,” which included a five-point statement of goals. The first objective was “overthrowing the antipopular, antidemocratic, demagogic and illegitimate government, which is at the service of national and foreign capital and the forces which sustain it, and for establishing a new government, essentially distinct from that which now holds power.”103 On August 7, 1996, at a clandestine news conference, EPR Comandante José Arturo called for a provisional revolutionary government that would reverse current free-market policies. It proposed overthrowing President Zedillo by force and reportedly distanced itself from the Zapatistas' policies of negotiation and international pressure, employing a discourse "more reminiscent of the Marxism of 1970's guerrilla movements." José Arturo stated that the EPR had carried out bank robberies and kidnappings in order to finance itself, and that a new front had been forged in the Eastern Sierra.104

The EPR has been linked to the Clandestine Revolutionary Workers Party-Union of the People (PROCUP), a deep-underground remnant of the 1970s guerilla movement in Guerrero led by the radical schoolteacher, Lucio Cabas.105 The PROCUP is suspected of having carried out the 1994 kidnapping of Mexican banking magnate Alfredo Harp Helu, who netted his captors a US$30 million ransom.106 At the time of its emergence, many observers believed the EPR might become Mexico's version of Peru's Shining Path.

In August 1996, the group carried out a series of armed actions in six states killing more than a dozen police, soldiers, and others. According to a Department of Defense (DoD) report cited by the Wall Street Journal, by 1999 the EPR had clashed about 45 times with security forces in several Mexican states, causing about 100 casualties.107
Linked to folks that love not to say much about themselves, and seen as somewhat elitist in views. Be that as it may, EPR is, itself, an amalgam of 14 groups that came together in 1996 to try and get their views across and do a bit of kidnapping, run-and-gun and the usual mayhem associated with poor terrorists. So your standard, barely held together sort of 'rebels without a clue'. Finally, from al-Reuters on the event:
Mexico oil bomb rebels in political, personal fight
Thu 13 Sep 2007, 19:23 GMT
By Frank Jack Daniel

MEXICO CITY, Sept 13 (Reuters) - The leftist rebels behind huge pipeline bombings in Mexico this week are from a small guerrilla group held together by family ties that has long personal and political grudges against the government.

The Popular Revolutionary Army, or EPR, blew up gas and oil pipelines on Monday in their biggest attack on economic targets since emerging in mountain villages of southern Mexico in the mid-1990s to kill dozens of police.

Tiburcio Cruz Sanchez, known as "The Professor," is the man the army says heads the EPR. He comes from a family of guerrillas from the southern state of Oaxaca that has been active since the 1970s.

Two of his sons are in jail for bombing banks. Human rights activists say they are innocent but were arrested to hit back at the elusive Professor and his wife, who is from another small rebel dynasty.

The EPR, believed to number under 1,000 members, launched a campaign of economic sabotage in July with bomb attacks on energy installations, repeated on a bigger scale this week.
There, that ought to do it! I will save you the current run-down on 'splinter groups' from the EPR, which seems to happen with terrorist organizations so quickly that one cannot keep track of it, and the traditional citation that when your leader is "The Professor" it had better be "Moriarty", or else you are really in the junior leagues.

Most folks get pretty hopped up on this linkage business and, really, that is what it is all about, isn't it? So when Gordon Thomas puts out some links between multiple terrorist organizations that MI-6 is speculating about, well, one does take some pause to say the least. From WorldNet Daily, 10 MAY 2006:
Osama's exploits south of border
By Gordon Thomas

LONDON – Britain's secret intelligence service, MI6, has established the first proof al-Qaida is playing a major role in the new Cold War between North and South America – with Osama bin Laden's terror network seeing itself in league with Mexican subversives in infiltrating the U.S. border.

The evidence emerged as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez swash-buckled into London after scoring a win in yet another venomous battle with Washington for influence and economic advantage across the Latin American continent.

Chavez is in London to meet the capital's anti-Bush mayor, Ken Livingstone, and other prominent British opponents of the war in Iraq. His arrival coincides with the downward spiral politically of Prime Minister Tony Blair – largely over his continued support for Bush.

Downing Street will monitor the Chavez visit closely – not least because he controls the western hemisphere's largest supply of oil reserves. As oil prices soar, Chavez has used the extra profits to reinforce his position with his electorate. He said last week he would seek "indefinite" re-election beyond the constitutional limit of 2014.

Chavez, a 51 year-old paratrooper, descended on London this week and was boosted by the knowledge that his rapidly expanding clout in Southern America could soon see a dramatic shift of power after elections in Peru, Nicaragua and Mexico.

This would result in a standoff between Western oil companies worried about rising oil prices and South American oil producers' new-found enthusiasm for threatening foreign companies with a further hike.

In the words of a MI6 memo, the situation "is a new and dangerous threat to stability that is also being exploited by al-Qaida."

Details of al-Qaeda's penetration into Latin America emerged from documents discovered during recent anti-terrorist operations in Pakistan to try and locate Osama bin Laden.

The documents included evidence that al-Qaida has established links with the Colombian terror group, FARC, and the Shining Path, SL, in Peru. They also reveal al-Qaida's links with thousands of Muslim students in the Dominican Republic.

Another Pakistani document shows the links between al-Qaida and Mexico's Popular Revolutionary Army, EPR. The documents reveal that al-Qaida sees EPR as collaborators in attacks in Mexico on foreign targets – "especially those of the United States and Britain." It also says that EPR can play a key role in allowing al-Qaida operatives to enter the United States through the busiest land crossing in the world – Tijuana.

Another document reveals that along Peru's border with Chile "a large Arab community is providing substantial sums of money for al-Qaida."

But the closest links al-Qaida has are with Venezuela. Exploiting Chavez's latest tirade against the Bush administration, al-Qaida is firmly entrenched in the country.
Ah! Lovely, isn't it? OBL, Chavez, Islamists, Marxists, Leftists, Pakistan, Peru, Chile, FARC, Shining Path, and EPR... apparently South America is looking to become the vacation spot of terrorists. So we get lots of folks doing the 'ah-ha!' fingerpointing and easy tracing from EPR to al Qaeda as the inspiration for this last event. Really, 10 SEP and all that, going for a big event, but with the Leftist/Marxist quaint idea of low body count. Huge property crime to inspire... well... yeah, you forgot about it, didn't you?

How about a bit of a different pathway, way more direct? An easy, pin the tail on the Dictator deal... this from VCrisis 15 NOV 2005, with thanks to Center for Security Policy for pointing it out:
Vladimir Villegas: Chávez’s Chess Piece in Mexico
By Raúl Tortolero El Universal Online – Mexico

The Embassy of Venezuela in Mexico has been shown, by very different sectors in that country and in Mexico, to be an instrument of the ideological propaganda and political expansion of the personal interests of Hugo Chávez. Observations of interventionism include giving electoral support to the PRD [Democratic Revolutionary Party of Mexico], even "espionage," as well as a presumed importation of high caliber weapons and contacts with the FARC, ETA and Al Qaeda.

Mexico City Tuesday, 15 November 2005 Vladimir Villegas is a person of Euro-African heritage showing a good sense of humor and charisma. Tall, robust, sporting glasses and a smiling mustache, he has been residing in Mexico for only five months. His hair thinning, and dressed without any display of luxury, very much in accord with his perennial socialist ideals that have possessed him since he was a communist student leader, he wears plastic-soled shoes.

Well, then this man is accused of televising illegal recordings in order to attack Hugo Chávez’s opponents, of creating international spy rings, of being the architect of the Venezuelan funding apparatus for Lula [in Brazil], of advising and providing funds for the campaigns of Marcelo Ebrard and Andrés Manuel López Obrador [in Mexico]. Ah, and another detail: the PGR [Office of the Attorney General of Mexico] is investigating him concerning weapons shipments from Venezuela supposedly intended for the EPR [Popular Revolutionary Army].

This is the gift President Hugo Chávez presented in the guise of a Venezuelan ambassador to this country. The Bolivarian Revolution. There was more to come.

Lino Martínez —the previous Venezuelan representative— stated to the national press that López Obrador was a “ray of light," even capable of leading the masses into a revolution, seeing as Vicente Fox had not fulfilled his campaign promises and there was misery. That being said, he and his big mouth left and flew back to his country. Then Hugo Chávez decided to stimulate us with a new representative. He did not choose someone of a more moderate profile, a tea drinker, a polished international statesman. He chose Villegas as new ambassador.

[..]

SUBVERSIVE CIRCLES

I ask him if he has signed an agreement with the federal government: he says no, but that he maintains very good relations with Michoacán, a state favorable to the PRD. And that he has been to many universities. He is identified as a promoter of the Bolivarian Circles, which he says serve just to promote solidarity with Venezuela, but which members of the PAN [Vicente Fox’s party] and the PRI [traditional party prior to Fox] assure are citizens’ networks in favor of López Obrador.

The School of Philosophy at the UNAM [Autonomous National University of Mexico] —among others— is a hotbed of Bolivarian Circles. There, it is considered normal to join them and “stickers” that say “I AM a Bolivarian Mexican” [gender-neutral Mexican@ Bolivarian@] and “Venezuela is: Democracy and Sovereignty" are distributed.

Connections among armed groups, from Venezuela and Mexico, converge in the case of a Mexican student: Alondra Durán (Oviedo). She traveled "to study” in Canada, but presumably her real political objective was to work in support of clandestine organizations. Alondra was arrested at the Ottawa airport a few months ago for having carried "subversive propaganda” from the Bolivarian Circles, the EPR and the FARC. Her name is linked to the FZLN [Zapatista National Liberation Front]. She appears on this organization’s website as one of the “signatories” of a letter of protest against the lack of a follow-up to the case of the assassination of Pavel González González, a student at the UNAM. Intelligence sources link the Bolivarian Circles to the EPR and the FARC.

There is a hypothesis that the EPR is purchasing weapons. The PGR [Office of the Mexican Attorney General] in its official communication PGR/SIEDO/UEITA/4078/2005, dated this past September 11th, and signed by José Cabrera, coordinator of the Special Unit for the Investigation of Terrorism and the Storing and Trafficking of Weapons of the SIEDO [Organized Crime Unit of the Office of the Attorney General] has requested information from Villegas —La Revista [section of El Universal (Mexico)] has a copy of the document— concerning the arrival of weapons from Venezuela into Mexico a few months ago.

Chávez's expansive zeal is no secret and his propagandistic incursions into Mexico are nothing new, and neither is support for his projects from Mexican groups. One example: outside of the hotel where a press conference by the Venezuelan president was about to begin, at the Special Summit of the Americas, in Monterrey, January of 2004, there suddenly arose a “spontaneous” demonstration in his favor, with a Venezuelan flag and everything.
Yes, Mr. Chavez throwing petro-dollars around for influence and the standard fascistic 'cult of personality' and Nationalism that leftists seem to adore on their side, even when they are fascists. So, this puts a firm and clear link to Hugo Chavez seeking to expand his personal power and get some influence with Leftist/Marxist terrorists groups, not only in Mexico, but across Latin America.

Now for the final news event that I am absolutely sure everyone has forgotten:
Chavez and Fox recall ambassadors
Published: 2005/11/14 19:25:39 GMT


Mexico and Venezuela have recalled their ambassadors amid a diplomatic spat between the two countries.


Mexican President Vicente Fox announced the move minutes after Venezuela said it was ordering home its envoy.

Venezuela's Hugo Chavez refused to bow to Mexican demands to apologise for warning off Mr Fox - after describing him as a "puppy" of US imperialism.

The row began last week, after Mexico supported a failed US bid to relaunch regional free trade talks at a summit.

On Sunday, Mr Chavez accused the Mexican leader of disrespecting him and warned: "Don't mess with me sir, because you'll come out pricked."

He also accused Mr Fox again for allegedly violating protocol in trying to press for an agreement on the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) when it was not on the Summit of the Americas' agenda early in November.


Mexico said the comments "strike at the dignity of the Mexican people" and demanded a formal apology from Venezuela or severing diplomatic ties.

'Sad'

Venezuelan Foreign Minister Ali Rodriguez called the demand "unjustifiable".

"The immediate return of ambassador Vladimir Villegas has been ordered," he said.
Yes! From the BBC, bash-America central! Still, you can see the one thing that I do believe most people have forgotten. Where Mr. Chavez threatens Mexico?

Ah... there you have it! No need to go through lovely hoops to get al Qaeda involved, when this is just your standard Dictator For Life doing his bit in bossing everyone else around. Send some explosives to your 'friends' in Mexico and soon enough you can remind Mexico of your ire at them. Of course there is one other man involved, in a very undistinguished way, and only by association. I mean if the folks wanting to link up al Qaeda and such are having their fun, I will have mine and throw in the other angle... from Jamestown Foundation, their article from 21 OCT 2005 on al Qaeda's Inroads Into the Caribbean:
U.S. and Trinidadian authorities have kept a close eye on the Jammat’s activities since the 9/11 attacks, but there is no hard evidence tying the group to international terrorism, let alone al-Qaeda. However, Abu Bakr did maintain links with Libya’s Muammar Qadhafi in the 1980s and 90s and considers him a close friend to this day. The Jammat reportedly received funds through Libya’s World Islamic Call Society (WICS) to finance the construction of its main mosque, schools, and a medical center, but there is no evidence linking Tripoli with the failed 1990 coup attempt. Abu Bakr’s most recent publicized links with controversial international figures include Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.
There you have it, Abu Bakr, leader of the only Islamic coup in the Western Hemisphere, having links to Kadaffy, and Hugo Chavez. And, finally, this link for the testimony of Janice L. Kephart suring Hearing before the House Committee on the Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration, Border Security, and Claims on 08 JUN 2006:
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is well known for his violent dictatorship-like leadership, affiliations with Cuba (where his troops are sent for training), and his support of FARC in Columbia (enhancing chaos and violence in that country). In 2001, he signed cooperation agreements with Libya, Iraq, and Iran. On 9/12/01, Chavez ordered government workers to burn U.S. flags in the streets to celebrate the attacks of 9/11.

What is less known is that in January 2003, Chavez’s former personal pilot, having come to the United States after an attempt on his life and claiming political asylum, stated that immediately following 9/11,
Chavez ordered the pilot (Venezuelan Air Force Major Juan Diaz Castillo) to "to organize, coordinate, and execute a covert operation consisting of delivering financial resources, specifically $1 million, to [Afghanistan's] Taliban government. The purpose of the “donation” was to “assist the Al Qaeda terrorist organization," while, "making it appear as if humanitarian aid were being extended to the Afghan people."

According to Castillo’s account,
one million dollars was delivered to Afghanistan via the Venezuelan ambassador in India. The Taliban acknowledged receiving $100,000 in "humanitarian aid." Castillo said the remaining $900,000 went to al Qaeda. Chavez never answered the allegations, despite public demands to do so.

According to the National Review, Castillo’s allegations are consistent with remarks made by the former head of Venezuela’s border security, who stated that while in that position he was pressured to permit anonymous travel of Middle East and other terrorists passing through Venezuela and to deceive U.S. terrorism investigators. "I quit my job when I got tired of doing dirty work for Chavez with the Cubans looking over my shoulder," he said.
Chavez and al Qaeda, with links to all sorts of fun people across Latin America and the Caribbean. Of course the Kassar connection is through FARC... but you knew that, already!

EPR to Chavez to FARC to al-Kassar: 3 connections. And as my spanish isn't up to any snuff, I can't really get the connections via FARC directly, but see the narco-traffic as part of it.