Showing posts with label appeasement. Show all posts
Showing posts with label appeasement. Show all posts

18 September 2012

Everyone is connected to someone

Anyone who has read my works in the past know that I'm all about the Person to Person (P2P) connections between the various actors in politics, terrorism and organized crime.  In fact anyone who has had an interesting life leaves a trail of information behind them either in their private life or public life: awards, plaudits, movie reviews, or even cat blogging.  Get noticed for something in even a small company that puts out a press release means that it should be on the web somewhere if it happened post-1998.  It is inescapable in many ways and trying to scrub one's life means having to be able to get either to major search engine look-ups or to the information at countless organizations globally.

I am, perhaps, not the best of all possible online researchers.  With that said I can usually turn up something on someone in the news after a good hour of looking around.  Perhaps I can be obtuse, overlook the blindingly obvious or otherwise just plainly overlook something.  Still in a couple of hours I can usually get decent hints on where to start looking.

For the first time I've hit a blank wall: someone with no background that I can get at least one-deep on who has been in the news who has had high visibility.

I hit all my usual sources and a few out of the ordinary, like looking for political contributions.  You know, giving money to candidates, campaigns, parties or PACs.  People looking to cover their tracks can't get rid of that stuff... but if you don't contribute to any candidate or campaign, you then have no trail.

Getting awards or being recognized as having done something in a profession, or even just attending industry events (meetings, conferences, etc.) in a speakers capacity or even high level attendee leaves a trail.  Work on your own and high level clients will give you praise for your work, unless you are a hitman or some such and that tends to get its own notoriety of a different sort.

If you actually lead a life worth living, get high level recognition you then have a build-up to it, a trail.

Get the idea?

So who am I having problems getting info on?

The assassinated US Ambassador to Libya: John Christopher Stephens.

That is how his name is spelled at the US State Dept.

I can find his razor thin bio, repeated, often word for word, at many outlets.

His work for the Peace Corps?  Pre-Internet and so not easy to find, at best.

His time as a trade lawyer in DC from 1991?  Zilch.  Can't find a company he worked for or even clients who praise him.

Anything before he was an Ambassador?  Still looking.

Why did the man get this job?  Was it a favor from a well connected individual? Bundled contributions?  Excellence at State at doing something... anything?

Like I said, I could just be overlooking the obvious here.  I'm just interested in his past history, who he worked for, where he was before he got the Ambassador's job... the sort of thing that might tell me more about his life which was so recklessly put into danger in one of the worst places of the Middle East.  In a vehicle that doesn't look armored.  With a thin security detail.

His death was disavowed by the Libyan government.  Al Qaeda applauds it and takes credit for it.  This wasn't a 'murder' it was an assassination of the representative of the United States while overseas.  The assassination of an Ambassador is an Act of War, no matter who does it: war Public or Private is still war.

I don't like finding someone with no past who has become Ambassador of the US who is then assassinated in an act of war.

16 September 2012

This is what tyranny looks like

LATimes_Nakoula Photo Credit: LA Times Blog 15 SEP 2012

 

Picture of Nakoula Basseley Nakoula taken in for questioning by police.  In the middle of the night.

His crime?

Creating bad art that was used as an excuse by some rioters in Egypt.

Via AFP (h/t Weaselzippers):

AL-Qaeda said the deadly attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, Libya was in revenge for the killing of the network’s number two Sheikh Abu Yahya al-Libi, SITE Intelligence Group reported.

“The killing of Sheikh Abu Yahya only increased the enthusiasm and determination of the sons of (Libyan independence hero) Omar al-Mokhtar to take revenge upon those who attack our Prophet,” said al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula said in a statement, quoted by the US-based monitoring group.

Thus those who murdered the US Ambassador to Libya did so with intent to kill from the outset.  It was meant as a punishment to the US and is thus not an act of murder but an act of war.  As the Libyan government has decried (Source: Independent, UK) such action and no government wishes to take credit, it is an act of war by a Private group against the US.  This is not murder because the US Ambassador was gay, because he was 'asking for it' or due to any other reason than being the US Ambassador to Libya.  The State Dept. had warning 48 hours in advance of the assassination that there would be mobs outside the Embassies and Consulate in Cairo and Benghazi (Source: Independent, UK) and according to sources in Libya (Source: Israelnationalnews.com), although the spokesman for the DNI denies this (Source: Politico).

Responsibility for protection of the Ambassador and all other State Dept. personnel overseas falls to the State Dept. (Source: Breitbart).  Do note that the State Dept. has security of all of its Embassies, other Consulates and missions under its authority for security.

A report from UPI on 11 SEP 2012 indicates otherwise:

CAIRO, Sept. 11 (UPI) -- A radical group plans to launch terrorist attacks against the Israeli and U.S. embassies in Cairo, the Egyptian Intelligence Service is warning.

A top secret letter obtained by the news organization al-Masry al-Youm states that elements from the group Global Jihad have been planning attacks on the two embassies.

The letter addressed to a top Egyptian security official was forwarded to all security sectors across Egypt, al-Masry al-Youm reported Tuesday.

There was no word on when the attacks were supposed to take place.

Global Jihad has been accused by Israel of perpetrating the August 5th attack against Egyptian border guards in Sinai that left 16 dead.

Thus there was warning and as the reports were just getting to the press on 11 SEP 2012, they had to work through official releases and checking in the bureaucracy for days ahead of time.  Indeed  Sharon Rondeau at The Post & Email credits the original date of the warning letter to 04 SEP 2012.

From the Glenn Reynolds posting on this we learn:

  • That is a scarf wrapped around his head, not a towel.
  • Probations are handled by officers of the court and law enforcement is not called in unless a suspected crime has been committed.  Probation violation can be due to multiple things that have no criminality attached to them, and if Mr. Nakoula was suspected of that while using his computer, then his computer can be seized and he can talk with his Probation Officer.

Mr. Nakoula has every right to make a blasphemous film as a citizen of the United States.

Mr. Nakoula has every right to make bad art as a citizen of the United States.

Mr. Nakoula has every right to express himself and not have literal knock on his door at midnight from the police asking him in for questioning and then taking him out through a gaggle of reporters.  There are a number of people who have called for the death of Mr. Nakoula in the Middle East and some of those are attached to the organizers of riots in the region.  These people are working with the most radical and barbaric terrorists in the world who think nothing of suicide bombing using children and the disabled, who feel no regret at chopping off heads of their opponents, and who incite to murder and chaos on a global scale.

The film of Mr. Nakoula had been on youtube for quite some time before these events, and the citation of it by those who have done the rioting and assassination is nothing more than pretext, excuse and yet another finger to point at the West not because we are inciting them but because they hate our liberties and freedom.  Like the freedom to speak one's mind about religion and to even criticize other religions and not be taken in and tried on blasphemy charges for such criticism.  The 'questioning' of Mr. Nakoula is done as a cover for the real reason: that he is inconvenient to the regime of current Administration and a handy scapegoat, a mere Goldstein to excuse tyrannical action.

First they came for the bad film makers and I said nothing as I did not make bad films...

Screw THAT.

I do protest.

Because I know that at the end of the long list, I will be included in that ever expanding enemy's list, just as normal people have been every time that the list of handy scapegoats had to be increased to excuse incompetence, lack of oversight or just plain old horror by those seeking tyranny.  This is about the freedom of each of us to say as we feel we must say to inform our fellow citizens, and if it is done with bad art then SO BE IT.  Censorship in the face of terrorism is appeasement and walking away from support of human rights AT HOME.  This must stop NOW or the result is a horror beyond imagining and rivers of blood under your feet and mine for not speaking out TODAY.

I do speak out as that is my job as a Citizen of the Republic of the United States of America.

11 February 2009

The shadow and the firestorm

Consider Bill Roggio's latest on the strengthening of al Qaeda forces in Pakistan, over at Long War Journal.  This is information that you can get no where else as easily and with such depth.  The re-appearance of the al Qaeda Shadow Army, particularly the unit that was the Taliban enforcer, Brigade 055, now Lashkar al Zil, or Shadow Army, is something to take note of, as the dispersal of the Talibe regime and subsequent operations disorganized it requiring it to re-formulate outside of Afghanistan.  Of particular note is the presences of ex-Baathist Republican Guardsmen amongst the diverse non-Pashtun organization that is the Shadow Army.  That said the 'foot soldiers' and mid-level types are bound to be from other places and Mr. Roggio cites as much in the article.

I've gone over some of the line-up previously and will list some of those posts, although I am sure to miss a few:

Examining the al Qaeda playbook (initial perusal)

First cut overview on The Management of Savagery

Terrorists on the decline?

Terrorism: the good, the bad and the ugly

Seeding the whirlwind and getting the vortex

A quick refresher on Pakistan

Terrorism and Pakistan, part 1

Terrorism and Pakistan, part 2

Huawei Technologies and its role in terrorism

Management of Savagery - The 'weak horse'

Afghanistan and the essential fight

Those are just the high level basics necessary to understand what we are seeing, and with those an examination of who the players are can be done.  No, fun was not had in writing those.

 

The Shadow Army has integrated parts of other terrorist organizations into their utilization schema.  In terrorist organizations that co-operate you often find mutual cooperation without hard and fast lines of authority - thus members may work together due to organizational needs, via  ideology, via common contacts, via common enemy, or one just weakening and transferring to a newer and stronger organization.  So seeing who they incorporate should be able to tell what sort of associations they are making.  This from the Roggio piece:

Afghan and Pakistan-based Taliban forces have integrated elements of their forces into the Shadow Army, "especially the Tehrik-e-Taliban and Haqqani Network," a senior US military intelligence official said. "It is considered a status symbol" for groups to be a part of the Shadow Army.

The Tehrik-e-Taliban is the Pakistani Taliban movement led by Baitullah Mehsud, the South Waziristan leader who has defeated Pakistani Army forces in conventional battles. The Haqqani Network straddles the Afghan-Pakistani border and has been behind some of the most high-profile attacks in Afghanistan.

From the Daily Times of Pakistan article of 09 JAN 2007 on this area:

In South Waziristan, according to the sources, the two main Taliban commanders are Baitullah and Abdullah from the Mehsud tribes. The former is the most powerful Taliban commander in the entire South Waziristan. He signed a peace deal with the Pakistani authorities at Sararogha in February 2005. It was agreed that the army will evacuate tribal territories, the Taliban will not attack the army, foreigners will not get protection, the army will not conduct operations against the Taliban if they agreed to help in the completion of development work. After the agreement, the Taliban established 16 offices in different parts of the Mehsud territory which are still functioning. They undertook harsh steps against criminals and dacoits. A ban was imposed on the use of computers/TV/music/dance. Sharia law was imposed. Baitullah has a lashkar of 30,000 armed tribesmen, while Abdullah has 5,000 armed men associated with him. Both groups give training to local youth and organise cross-border attacks. Baitullah Mehsud is associated with JUI-F like Sadiq Noor in North Waziristan while Abdullah Mehsud is attached to Uzbek/Tajik groups.

The sources said that in the Ahmedzai Wazir tribe, there were 14 groups of Taliban until November 2006 but after the appointment of Mullah Nazir as commander, all of them were brought under one leadership. Two Taliban commanders, Ghulam Jan and Ifthikar, do not accept Mullah Nazir as commander. However, Mullah Nazir remains the most powerful Taliban commander. He and other Taliban commanders like Muhammad Umer, Sharif, Noor Islam, Maulvi Abbas and Javed are affiliated with JUI-F. A separate group under commander Zanjeer, associated with Gulbadin Hikmatyar of Hizbe Islami is connected to the Jamaat-e-Islami in Pakistan.

Taliban commander Noor Islam based in Wana is an active supporter of Uzbek/Tajik and rebel Arabs. Haji Khanan, who is against the presence of Uzbeks, is another important Taliban commander. He is based in the Shakai area of the agency. Uzbek commanders and Abdullah Mehsud groups are more active in attacks on supporters of the government, while Arab commanders are more active in cross-border attacks.

The Mehsud brothers, now down to Baitullah, have been Talibani organizers on the border for years.  Their combined Lashkar was 30,000 or so locals.  Baitullah is the man who had not only the bulk of their private Lashkar, but the one who associated with other organizations and actively ordered and coordinated raids across the border.  Now lets look a bit more at the Mehsud brothers with this taken from the second of a two part report on them -

Part 2 from The Crime Library by Anthony Bruno:

Tribal militant leader Baitullah Mehsud has shown a disturbing interest in Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, the controversial father of Pakistan's nuclear arms program, who in 2004 admitted to selling nuclear technology to Iran, Libya, and North Korea on the black market. Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan reported that when Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan in October of this year, Baitullah instructed Al Qaeda militants in Karachi to kill her for "three major offenses against Islamists." First, she supported the Pakistani military attack on Lal Masjid (the Red Mosque) in Islamabad on July 10, 2007—Lal Masjid was considered a hotbed of Islamist radicalism; one hundred and sixty-four Pakistani special-forces commandos stormed the mosque and madrassah, killing at least 20 and injuring over 100. Second, Bhutto has made it clear that if she takes power in Pakistan, she will allow American forces to search for Osama bin Laden inside Pakistan's borders. Third, she has said that if elected, she would allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to question A. Q. Khan.

[..]

Until 2005, Baitullah lived in the shadow of his daring and charismatic brother, Abdullah Mehsud, who, with his long black hair, was considered a terrorist rock star. Abdullah fought with the Taliban in Afghanistan against the Northern Alliance and in 1996 lost a leg when he stepped on a land mine. He was taken captive by warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum who turned him over to American forces. Abdullah Mehsud was sent to Camp Delta at Guantanamo Bay Naval Base in Cuba and held for two years, insisting the whole time that he was just an innocent tribesman. He was released in 2004 for reasons which remain unclear and returned to Waziristan. Soon after his return, he orchestrated the kidnapping of two Chinese engineers working on a dam in his region, proclaiming that Beijing was guilty of killing Muslims. He also ordered an attack on Pakistan's Interior Minister in which 31 people perished. In July 2007 he died in a clash with Pakistani military forces as they raided his residence.

[..]

Baitullah made his intentions clear this past January when he said, "As far as jihad is concerned, we will continue to wage it. We will do what is in the interest of Islam." Speaking of the growing threat of Baitullah's militia, Pakistani military analyst, Hasan-Askari Rizvi, told The New York Times, "The army has never faced such a serious challenge in the tribal areas."

For those of you insisting that Guantanamo is such a 'bad place' and that 'innocent people are held there', do consider that Abdullah Mehsud, who controlled 5,000 personal war fighters, who was alllied with the Taliban, whose brother was actively fighting the US and its allies in Afghanistan, was SET FREE because he was 'an innocent tribesman'.  Really, it sucks to get picked up with weapons in a war zone or otherwise swept up in raids and such in such a conflict.  When he was released he went on to kidnapping and killing, and helping his brother and the Taliban.  You wanted a swift determination of combatant status and got it: kidnapping and killing are your return on investment of 'good will'.

With this information we can start to piece together Baitullah Mesud's range and scope of influence, and I'll swipe this from a previous article of mine:

1) Baitullah Mehsud - Sipah-e-Sahaba/Pakistan (SSP) (Source: TKB and SATP) [now Millat-e-Islamia/Pakistan via the SIPS name table] and its main factional group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (Source: SATP). Baitullah Mehsud does not *lead* either of these organizations, instead being a leader of a Lashkar (from TKB: Lashkar: Literally “battalion” in Urdu, the term is often part of the name of many South Asian terrorist groups) of 30,000 to 35,000 Mehsud tribesmen and other terrorist followers. Thus he is a military leader of import, with a sizeable following of Pashtuns. He is also cited as being commander of the Tehrik-e-Taliban (Source: SATP, SAIR Report 31 DEC 2007) or Taliban Movement Pakistan (Source: e-Ariana).

 

Now for a bit on how the Mehsuds stage attacks across the border.  Here is the SATP Pakistan Assessment: 2009 that examines this in part:

Alarmingly, some Taliban clerics reportedly boasted of converting ordinary persons into suicide-bombers "in six hours flat".

"From the 26 suicide attacks where we recovered a head in 2007, we made a startling discovery… The vast majority [of suicide bombers] came from just one tribe, the Mehsuds of central Waziristan, all boys aged 16 to 20," an analyst at the elite Special Investigation Group (SIG) told The Guardian. Qari Hussain, also known as Ustad-e-Fidaeen (teacher of suicide cadres), a Mehsud tribesman in his early 30s, is identified as the 'commander' who manages Baitullah Mehsud-led Taliban suicide bombing training centres and is directly responsible for indoctrinating youth for suicide missions. One of the training centres was discovered at a Government-run school in the Kotkai area of South Waziristan by the Army. GOC-14 Division Major General Tariq Khan told reporters in Dera Ismail Khan on May 18, 2008: "It was like a factory that had been recruiting nine to 12-year-old boys, and turning them into suicide bombers." The computers, other equipment and literature seized from the centre give graphic details of the suicide training. There were videos of young boys carrying out executions, a classroom where 10- to 12-year olds are sitting in formation, with "white band of Quranic verses wrapped around their forehead, and there are training videos to show how improvised explosive devices are made and detonated." .

"Pakistan is now a one-stop shop," says Tariq Pervez who recently retired as the Director General of the Federal Investigation Agency. He told The Guardian in an interview, "ideas, logistics, cash from the Gulf. Arab guys, mainly Egyptians and Saudis, are on hand to provide the chemistry. Veteran Punjabi extremists plot the attacks, while the Pakistan Taliban provide the martyrs. And it all came together in the Marriott case."

In fact, so pervasive is the phenomenon of suicide attacks that suicide bombers are also now available for a price to settle personal scores. This was revealed during Police investigations into a suicide attack in Bhakkar on October 6, 2008, in which 25 persons were killed and 60 wounded. According to Crime Investigation Department of the Lahore Police, accused Waqas Hussain and his four accomplices had hired a suicide bomber and explosives expert from Wana in South Waziristan to kill a former friend with whom they had a monetary dispute.

Need to hire a martyr/hitman?  Waziristan is the place to go!

Just so you know, that would be an ISI supported concept - using a government run school to train child suicide bombers.  Someone in the government must have known what was going on, and the finger would point to the ISI not only subverting the school, but then intimidating those inside the government who would try to report it.  Now this gives us the flow of the overall project:  Money,  materials and skilled operatives from KSA and Egypt, local Islamic Radicals as trainers/brainwashers, construction of devices locally, and then the recruited boys and others picked up in the area sent on their missions.  This has worked so well that they have a surplus of martyrs to help settle your local disputes: pay the money and have a suicide child bomber blow up your target.

Remember when you criticize the US for 'barbaric activities' you are glossing over what the hell is actually going on in the world and that US soldiers are accountable for their actions.   But then children as suicide bombers have never bothered the Left in America - they try to say that the US causes them and not blame those doing the funding, training, brainwashing, equipping and sending of them.  Always the US, never the actual people using children like this.  Of course that attitude is, itself, barbaric.

Now over to FATA and the Khyber Pass area, and from that same report:

Within FATA, violence is reported from all the seven Agencies - Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber, Orakzai, Kurram, North Waziristan, and South Waziristan - in varying degrees. The continuing instability in neighbouring Afghanistan and the rapid fading of the Government's writ in FATA in 2008 has only intensified the conflict in the region. After Waziristan, Bajaur is arguably the most significant stronghold of the militants, who have entrenched themselves in the area, transforming the Agency into a nerve centre of the Taliban - al Qaeda network. Sources indicate that foreign al Qaeda militants - including Chechens, Uzbek, Tajik, Sudanese and Afghans - are converging on Bajaur to bolster the ranks of the jihadis. These foreigners are reportedly leading counter-attacks, since local militants alone were having difficulties confronting the Army action.

The Taliban, led by 'commander' Abdul Wali alias Omar Khalid, has near-complete control in the Mohmand Agency. Khalid, in his early 40s, was the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM) chief in the agency before becoming a Taliban commander. One of the most influential Taliban leaders after Baitullah Mehsud and Maulvi Faqir, sources indicate that Khalid, who claims to have more than 3,000 fighters with him, has strong links with some Kashmiri militant groups. It is during 2008 that the Pakistani Taliban made a surge in the Mohmand Agency, where they now run a parallel state, implementing the Sharia (Islamic law), largely under duress.

[..]

Throughout 2008, attempts at regaining territory by the armed forces in FATA proved to be unsuccessful, with the militants swiftly recovering lost spaces. In essence, the state does not have a civil administrative system worth its name in FATA and, indeed, across the NWFP and Balochistan, and efforts to hold and sustain territorial gains rely almost exclusively on the presence of the Armed Forces.

During 2008, the Taliban-al Qaeda combine, notwithstanding sustained military operations, also consolidated their sway on the Khyber Agency. In fact, strengthening their presence in the Jamrud and Landikotal sub-divisions of Khyber Agency by the end of the year, the Taliban from Khyber began to extend support to their brethren in the NWFP and to threaten the supply lines of NATO forces stationed in Afghanistan. Baitullah Mehsud's fighters have now established at least nine centres in Jamrud and Landikotal, with at least one of these centres located no more than 10 kilometers from the NWFP capital, Peshawar.

The state's withdrawal is tangible. While senior officials seldom venture into any of the Agencies, the administration virtually lives at the mercy of the militants and is unable to exercise any real authority. The SFs in FATA are also faced with the dangerous scenario of their Pashtun elements demonstrating reluctance to fight their fellow Pashtuns. Apart from the "high" casualty rate there is also an "unprecedented" level of desertions and discharge applications being reported from FATA (numbers for which are presently unavailable), an unambiguous sign that multiple insurgencies are bleeding the Pakistan Army.

In case you missed it: Pakistan is now fighting a massive insurgency that is draining its Army and limiting the operations of the Nation.  I haven't added in the Balochistan problems, but they are also doing a number on the Army and National forces.  Now on to the NWFP area:

During 2008, the Taliban-al Qaeda was able to unambiguously demonstrate their supremacy to the extent that the NWFP, a region where the state's presence has historically been relatively strong, is almost as ungovernable as FATA. While the Government has declared eight Districts out of the Province's 24 as 'high security zones', all the Districts are presently affected by various levels of militant mobilisation and violence. The extent of state collapse is visible in the fact that only six Districts were declared 'normal' for elections on February 18, 2008. A parallel system of governance now exists under the command of the Taliban in Swat District and the militants have announced the enforcement of Sharia in the Shakai, Sheikhan and Mulakhel areas of Hangu District as well.

[..]

Peshawar, the NWFP capital, is under siege and is vulnerable to collapse. There were three suicide attacks among 71 terrorism-related incidents in Peshawar during 2008. In December 2008, the Taliban in Peshawar, facing little resistance, blew up at least 261 vehicles carrying logistics and supplies for NATO forces in Afghanistan. Earlier, in June 2008, as the Taliban advanced towards the city, NWFP Police Chief and top administrators warned that, unless the Government took decisive action, Peshawar would fall. Peshawar is home to the headquarters of the Army's 11th Corps, the paramilitary Frontier Corps, the Frontier Constabulary and the Police. The Taliban have always had a significant presence in the capital and adjacent regions, including the Khyber Agency, Darra Adamkhel, Mohmand Agency, Shabqadar, Michni and Mardan.

Even as violence continues unabated across the Swat District, where Daily Times reported on January 19, 2009, after a year of military operations, the territory controlled by militants has increased from 25 per cent to 75 per cent, the provincial Government has, time and again, stated that it was ready for a dialogue with the Taliban - an offer that has been contemptuously ignored. While the dialogue process failed repeatedly in 2008, temporary cease-fires, in fact, allowed the Taliban-al Qaeda combine to regroup and rearm, while the state capacity has gradually diminished in the region. Worse still, continuous military operations in Swat, Dera Ismail Khan, Kohat, Peshawar, Bannu, Hangu, Malakand, and other areas have failed to establish the state's dominance in any of the territories temporarily 'regained'.

One of the fundamental reasons for the state's inability to hold territory in the Frontier is the absence of an effective mechanism for governance on the ground. This is compounded further by severe deficiencies in fighting capacities. While the Army is a relatively well-equipped force, the hamstrung Police forces face a grim challenge of constituting the first line of defence against urban militancy. According to the National Police Bureau's Annual Report, 2006, the Police operate under significant constraints, including the paucity of funds (only 12 per cent of the annual budget is available to meet Police development requirements) and shortage of Police strength (50 per cent deficit against sanctioned strength). In attempting to make amends, the Awami National Party-led provincial Government has proposed the creation of an elite police force of 7,500 personnel, which could be deployed on short notice in militancy-affected areas. However, reports on January 13, 2009, indicate that approximately 600 specially-trained commandoes of the newly established Elite Police Force have refused to get posted in the besieged Swat Valley, saying they would prefer dismissal to being made "scapegoats". "The services of around 600 commandoes of Platoon No-1 to Platoon No-13 were placed at the disposal of the District Police Officer of Swat. They were supposed to join duty during the first week of January. However, none of them left for the troubled town," The News reported. Parents of the newly trained commandoes had also reportedly refused to send their sons to Swat, where Policemen have been slaughtered and strangulated publicly on various occasions in 2008. Large-scale desertion is being reported from the Frontier. "Many cops had to place advertisements in local newspapers to assure the militants that they were no more part of security forces," said a local from Swat. A November 13, 2008, report said that approximately 350 Policemen had resigned from their posts, subsequent to a Taliban threat to either leave their jobs or get ready for "dire consequences".

This is what the beginning of a civil war looks like: insurgency strengthens, takes over the control of local government, then unifies against the National authority structure.  Pakistan isn't trying to 'negotiate' with the Taliban-al Qaeda and various groups that now follow them, it is trying to 'appease them'.  That is a sure sign of weakness, as the offers are now REFUSED.  That is not a good sign for the Pakistani regular forces, nor are the desertions, unwillingness to deploy in those areas, and the fact that highly trained commando police are unwilling to go there.

If these areas are falling from government control and to the Taliban/al Qaeda, we would expect to see their operations spread as success breeds success.  This from Punjab:

While the progressive collapse in NWFP and FATA is well documented, it is Punjab that is, in many ways, emerging as a jihadi hub. While 304 persons, including 257 SF personnel and 34 civilians, were killed in 78 terrorism-related incidents in Punjab in 2008, it is the presence of many militant groups in the province that is alarming. Data indicates, further, that more SF personnel and civilians were killed in Punjab than militants. While this is a clear indication that the Taliban-al Qaeda network is securing the upper hand, it is also evident that the extremists are bringing the conflict to Pakistan's urban heartland, including the national capital Islamabad, the provincial capital Lahore and the garrison town of Rawalpindi. In fact, out of the approximately 78 incidents in 2008, 21 were reported from Islamabad and 22 from Lahore. Apart from the fact that some of the terrorist attacks in Punjab have been carried out by the Taliban-al Qaeda network, suspects arrested in places like Faisalabad, Sargodha, Islamabad and Lahore, among others, in 2008, included persons from the FATA and NWFP. Militants from across the country and outside easily find safe havens in places like Islamabad and Lahore. With Peshawar, the NWFP capital which is just 150 kilometers away from Islamabad, already under militant siege, it is not surprising that Islamabad and Rawalpindi are being targeted. A senior Punjab Police officer has claimed that all cases of suicide bombings in the province had links to Baitullah Mehsud and his sub-groups operating in the NWFP: "The bombers and their accomplices have close links with Baitullah Mehsud and his sub-group leaders like Kali Zafar, Maulvi Rabbani and others who all belonged to Waziristan."

What the Taliban/al Qaeda now lack to make this a full civil war is a declaring of independence, uniforms, and an identification of the actors in charge.  This is now a full throated insurgency beginning to tremble the heart of Pakistan, and little is being done to stop it.  Indeed, it is now serving as a safe haven and recruiting ground:

While the lone terrorist arrested during the Mumbai attacks of November 26, 2008, Mohammad Ajmal Amir Iman alias Kasab, hails from Faridkot village in the Okara District of Punjab province, eight of the nine who were killed during the attack were also from Punjab. Both the LeT and the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) draw a majority of their cadres from south Punjab, including Multan and Bahawalpur, which is also the JeM headquarters. The LeT and its recently banned front, Jama'at-ud-Da'awa, have long maintained an open presence in places like the provincial capital Lahore and Muridke (approximately 40 kms from Lahore), where the group is headquartered. Qudsia Mosque in Chauburji Chowk in Lahore is the Jama'at-ud-Da'awa headquarters. On December 11 and 12, under relentless international pressure, authorities sealed 34 offices of the Jama'at-ud-Da'awa across Punjab, Police sealed the group's offices in south Punjab cities of Bahawalpur, Rahim Yar Khan, Rajanpur, Arifwala, Bahawalnagar, Khanewal, Arifwala and Rajanpur. These sealed offices, however, represent no more than a tiny fraction of the large LeT presence across Punjab. The Punjab Government has appointed administrators in 10 Jama'at-ud-Da'awa schools after intelligence agencies reported that these institutions were promoting extremism. At least 26 educational institutions of the outfit operate in various parts of the province. Before the recent crackdown, LeT leaders like Hafiz Mohammed Saeed, Abdur Rehman Makki, Abu Hashim and Ameer Hamza were openly seen in Lahore. And despite the recent ban on the Jama'at-ud-Da'awa/LeT and the house arrest of its chief, Hafiz Mohammed Saeed, the group continues to function quite openly.

Groups like the LeT, with considerable state support, have, over the years built an elaborate socio-economic infrastructure in Punjab, functioning as an alternative to the state, since the latter is unable to provide the needed social capital for an overwhelming proportion of the population. The worldview of groups like the Jamaat-ud-Dawa / LeT thus enjoys wide acceptability. Given the quantum of popular acceptance, the Punjabi dominated armed forces - themselves deeply ambivalent on this count - may find it difficult to engage with the jihadis in Punjab, if subversion in the Province become unmanageable in the proximate future.

When folks talked of a 'civil war' in Iraq, they did not know what they were talking about.  This is the beginning of a long, hard and deep one in Pakistan.  By being unable to provide protection and services to the entire population, Pakistan has been playing a 'pay off A to plague B, B to plague C, and C to plague A' sort of deal, using Kashmir and Afghanistan as 'B' and 'C'.  Now the 'C' part in Afghanistan comes home to roost, finds support, makes friends with 'A' (the local radicals) and then both utilize contacts to 'B' to start bringing their organizations into the fold.

Next up is Sindh:

Levels of violence in Sindh province were relatively low with some 42 incidents reported during 2008, in which 52 persons, including 29 civilians, were killed and 109 injured. There is, however, growing evidence to suggest that militant groups maintain a significant presence in the Province, notably in capital Karachi, Sukkur, Khairpur, Jacobabad, Badin, Larkana, Mirpur Khas and Hyderabad. The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) chief Altaf Hussain stated, on August 9, 2008, that Taliban activities were visible in the interior of Sindh in areas like Badin and that an unspecified number of people were coming from FATA and Northern Areas to Karachi and the interiors of Sindh, on a daily basis.

Karachi, Pakistan's commercial capital, has seldom been out of the headlines for all the wrong reasons. While sectarian strife between the majority Sunni and minority Shia Muslims persists, the city is also a safe haven for Islamist extremists linked to Taliban - al Qaeda combine. The Taliban are present in Karachi and have links with the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP) and other banned religious organisations, but have no intention of carrying out attacks in the provincial capital, unless provoked by a political party or the Government, a Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan spokesman, Mullah Omer, clarified on November 23, 2008. Earlier, on February 15, 2008, Karachi Police arrested 10 members of a militant group linked to the Taliban, who were planning massive terrorist attacks in the city during elections. The Inspector General of Police Azhar Ali Farooqi said the group, Tehrik-i-Islami Lashkar-i-Muhammadi, had ties with Mullah Dadullah, and with Taliban commander Tahir and Sirajul Haq Haqqani. Farooqi disclosed that the arrested men were formerly members of other banned outfits, such as the Jaish-e-Mohammed and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, but after the Lal Masjid operation they formed a group of their own because their former organisations had 'deviated' from their mission.

Sources indicate that the LeT maintains a training camp in Azizabad in Karachi. The ten LeT militants who carried out the multiple terrorist attacks in Mumbai on November 26, 2008, set sail from Karachi. Mohammad Ajmal Amir Iman alias Kasab, the lone militant arrested during the Mumbai attacks, stated during his interrogation, that Zaki-ur-Rehman-Lakhvi, the LeT 'operations chief' and one of the masterminds of the Mumbai carnage, had briefed them in Azizabad. The Jama'at-ud-Da'awa reportedly has offices in all major cities of Sindh where recruitment drives are conducted every year. It is from the metropolis, with a population of approximately 16 million, that many al Qaeda operatives, including Ramzi Binalshibh - the "20th hijacker" of the 9/11 attacks - have been arrested. The city also houses the Binoria mosque complex, which has long been the nerve centre of the Military-Jihadi enterprise.

Police indicated in August 2008 that the Taliban, in order to accelerate the funding process, has hired youngsters belonging to the JeM, HuM, Harkat ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI) and other militant groups, from Karachi. Intelligence agencies have indicated that Baitullah Mehsud, the LeJ and other outlawed jihadi groups have joined hands to pursue terrorist acts in Karachi. Daily Times reported on September 4, 2008, that this new grouping is headed by Raheemullah alias Naeem alias Ali Hassan, a 35-year old resident of Orangi Town. Adviser on the Interior, Rehman Malik, warned on November 21, 2008, that the LeJ may launch terrorist attacks in Karachi and "we need to discourage them and increase the vigil."

And there is the name Haqqani associated with the Lal Masjid mosque/training center.  While Haqqani left the previous organization, he kept many ties and started forming up a support organization to supply the Taliban and al Qaeda.  So when the Shadow Army indicates ties with two organizations, strongly, those organizations are, themselves, deeply tied into other organizations that stretch throughout Pakistan.

The Mehsud organization, itself, ties directly into a large number of places outside of FATA and NWFP, and into Sindh and Punjab.  Starting from a tribal based Pashtun organization it has now spread in influence and size as it garners funds from Saudi and Egyptian backers.  Mind you the heads of al Qaeda are Saudi and Egyptian, so this is not surprising, that these individuals have deep ties into the radical pockets in their home countries.

Now we can go on in Bill Roggio's piece, oriented on what the background and support of the Shadow Army represents:

The presence of the Shadow Army has been evident for some time, as there have been numerous reports of joint operations between the Taliban, al Qaeda, the Haqqani Network, Hizb-i-Islami, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Harkat-ul-Jihad Islami, and other terror groups. In January 2008, The Long War Journal noted that the various terror groups were cycling through the numerous camps in the tribal areas and have organized under a military structure.

While the Shadow Army has been active, there has been little visual evidence of its existence until now. The Long War Journal has obtained a photograph of a unit from the Shadow Army operating in Pakistan's Taliban-controlled district of Swat.

[..]

A look at the clothing of the fighters gives a good indication of the identity of the fighters, an expert on al Qaeda told The Long War Journal. The length of the pants of pictured fighters is described as being at "al Qaeda height" -- meaning only al Qaeda and allied "Wahhabi/Salafi-jihadis" wear their pant legs this high.

"The extremists who follow al Qaeda's religious beliefs think that pants must be at least six inches above the ground because there's a hadith [a saying of the Prophet Mohammed] that says clothes that touch the ground are a sign of pride and vanity," the expert said. "This, along with the new dyeing of men's beards red or yellow is a sure sign of al Qaeda-ization."

The type of masks worn and the tennis shoes are also strong indicators that these fighters "are non-Afghan fighters," an expert on the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan said. "Those types of masks I have seen, and they are always on the Pakistani side of the border," the expert said. "The tennis shoes and socks are a big indicator that they are non-Afghan fighters, probably Pakistanis or Arab/Central Asian fighters."

[..]

The re-formed Brigade 055 is but one of an estimated three to four brigades in the Shadow Army. Several other Arab brigades have been formed, some consisting of former members of Saddam Hussein’s Republican Guards as well as Iraqis, Saudis, Yemenis, Egyptians, North Africans, and others.

During the reign of the Taliban in Afghanistan prior to the US invasion in 2001, the 055 Brigade served as "the shock troops of the Taliban and functioned as an integral part of the latter's military apparatus," al Qaeda expert Rohan Gunaratna wrote in Inside al Qaeda. At its peak in 2001, the 055 Brigade had an estimated 2,000 soldiers and officers in the ranks. The brigade was comprised of Arabs, Central Asians, and South Asians, as well as Chechens, Bosnians, and Uighurs from Western China.

The 055 Brigade has "completely reformed and is surpassing pre-2001 standards," an official said. The other brigades are also considered well trained.

One official said the mixing of the various Taliban and al Qaeda units has made distinctions between the groups somewhat meaningless.

"The line between the Taliban and al Qaeda is increasingly blurred, especially from a command and control perspective," the official said. "Are Faqir Mohammed, Baitullah Mehsud, Hakeemullah Mehsud, Ilyas Kashmiri, Siraj Haqqani, and all the rest 'al Qaeda'?" the official asked, listing senior Taliban commanders in Pakistan that operate closely with al Qaeda. "Probably not in the sense that they maintain their own independent organizations, but the alliance is essentially indistinguishable at this point except at a very abstract level."

The Taliban have begun an ideological conversion to Wahhabism, the radical form of Sunni Islam practiced by al Qaeda. "The radicalization of the Taliban and their conversion away from Deobandism to Wahhabism under Sheikh Issa al Masri and other al Qaeda leaders is a clear sign of the al Qaeda's preeminence," the official noted. Sheikh Issa is the spiritual adviser for Egyptian Islamic Jihad, Ayman al Zawahiri's organization that merged into al Qaeda, and the leader of al Jihad fi Waziristan, an al Qaeda branch in North Waziristan.

The money, expertise, and supplies that al Qaeda can bring in has won converts amongst the Taliban.  The only good note out of this is that the Ba'athist Iraqi Republican Guards have, by and large, abandoned Iraq.  They do not serve as a lynch pin, however, that is what the Saudis are for: the ideological motivators and bagmen.  Outside of that, the longer reach of pre-existing terror groups, like that of Hekmatyar's, who could actually reach into China for insurgents, is still seen: he is the one man who has had a coherent organization to draw across the southern swath of ex-Soviet Republics in the region, and continues to do so.

What this demonstrates is that the Shadow Army organization is now one of the leading groups in the Taliban/al Qaeda sphere:

The Shadow Army has distinguished itself during multiple battles over the past several years, particularly in Pakistan's tribal areas and in the Northwest Frontier Province. Taliban forces under the command of Baitullah Mehsud defeated the Pakistani Army in South Waziristan during fighting in 2005-2006, and again fended off the Pakistani Army in 2008 after fighting pitched battles and overrunning a series of forts.

In Swat, the Pakistani military was twice defeated by forces under the command of Mullah Fazlullah during 2007 and 2008. Earlier this year, the military launched its third attempt to secure Swat, which has been solidly under the control of the Taliban. The most recent operation was initiated after Fazlullah issued an amnesty to certain government officials and called for others to be tried in a sharia court. The military regained control of a small region last week, but fighting has been heavy. A few days ago, Taliban forces overran a police station and captured 30 members of the police and paramilitary Frontier Corps.

In Bajaur, the hidden hand of the Shadow Army has been seen in multiple reports from the region. Taliban forces dug a series of sophisticated trench and tunnel networks as well as bunkers and pillboxes. The Pakistani military took more than a month to clear a six-mile stretch of road in the Loisam region. Pakistani military officials also said the Taliban "have good weaponry and a better communication system (than ours)."

"Even the sniper rifles they use are better than some of ours," the Pakistani official told Dawn "Their tactics are mind-boggling and they have defenses that would take us days to build. It does not look as though we are fighting a rag-tag militia; they are fighting like an organized force."

To those who have always wailed about how 'Iraq was distracting us' and 'allowing al Qaeda to rebuild' you have never, not once, offered a SOLUTION to this problem.  If it was to invade Pakistan than you should SAY SO and stop whining about things and just being a complainer.  This is, fully, the problem of the Pakistan, a sovereign nation, that is now unravelling and NOTHING offered by those opposing the war in Iraq would have done a damned thing about this problem as there is very little we can do with it.  By offering no concrete way forward, and there is no way to win in Afghanistan without solving this problem in another Nation, you have criticized to no good end.  Worse, by offering no hard evidence, complaining about Gitmo and otherwise publicizing every event that al Qaeda and the Taliban have wanted you to publicize, you are complicit in making them grow stronger. 

You want to *not* attack them?  Then they grow stronger because we are weak. 

You complain about 'civilian casualties' when they hide amongst civilians?  Then that is the blame of those doing the hiding like that - they are cowards.

Pacifism is appeasement to such as these, and look where that has gotten Pakistan.  By not supporting harsh reprisals, understanding that our enemies are barbarians and by accepting that they will cause innocents to be killed by their own actions, you have given them much strength and weakened our resolve to bring them to heel.

And with Pakistan releasing AQ Khan, we now have the one man that Baitullah Mehsud has sought for help for years.

Pakistan is trying appeasement once more, and getting attacked for it and its people killed.

The Shadow Army is about to unleash pure chaos in Pakistan.

The goal is the nuclear weapons there: the most unstable State to have them outside of the deranged Mr. Kim in NoKo.  They want to use AQ Khan to get at them... the man who ran the nuclear black market to Iran, Iraq, Syria, NoKo and others.  Once that happens we will see the firestorms begin.

Those that are left alive will either fight or submit.

No thanks to those who have been complaining for years and offering nothing better.

Part of the blame will be theirs for the deaths that will come from their dissolution of will by America.  As the world is not so small as it was during Vietnam, this time it is likely to come home and bring the firestorm directly to the critics as well as the innocents they castigated.  That is what you get for being nice and considerate to barbarians: killed or enslaved.

Or you can fight.

Only you can make that decision and when you don't fight, you are stuck with the other alternatives, of which 'peace' is not an option to those you empower.

09 May 2008

Same old hope and change

When reading about Sen. Obama's 'hope and change' message with regards to foreign policy, one comes across the distinct impression that his views are not all that out of line with the policies that previous Presidents have promulgated to ill ends. Consider his view on what is necessary to 'stabilize' Iraq, as seen from an NPR interview of 13 OCT 2007:

But the most important thing that we have to do is initiate the kind of diplomacy that is going to stabilize the situation. And there, Sen. Clinton and I do appear to have a difference, although it's hard to tell. I suggested that we should talk to our enemies and not just our friends, including Iran, including Syria. I got in an argument with Sen. Clinton back in the summer about this, because she suggested that that approach of negotiating without preconditions could be used for propaganda purposes and would be naive.

That is not a new view nor one of great profundity, as it pre-supposes that we have actually stopped talking with Iran and Syria. Sen. Obama becomes naive when he puts forth that we have stopped doing so. On the Syrian front you would, indeed, co-sponsor a bill with Sen. Frist (S.RES.534 passed by voice unanimous consent on18 JUL 2006 [Thomas link may be temporary]) entitled: A resolution condemning Hezbollah and Hamas and their state sponsors and supporting Israel's exercise of its right to self-defense. In the text of that bill that YOU Sen. Obama co-sponsored WITH a Republican it is affirmed the following:

Whereas Israel fully complied with United Nations Security Council Resolution 425 (adopted March 19, 1978) by completely withdrawing its forces from Lebanon, as certified by the United Nations Security Council and affirmed by United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan on June 16, 2000, when he said, `Israel has withdrawn from [Lebanon] in full compliance with Security Council Resolution 425.';

Whereas United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559 (adopted September 2, 2004) calls for the complete withdrawal of all foreign forces and the dismantlement of all independent militias in Lebanon;

Whereas despite Resolution 1559, the terrorist organization Hezbollah remains active in Lebanon and has amassed thousands of rockets aimed at northern Israel;

Whereas the Government of Lebanon, which includes representatives of Hezbollah, has done little to dismantle Hezbollah forces or to exert its authority and control throughout all geographic regions of Lebanon;

Whereas Hezbollah receives financial, military, and political support from Syria and Iran;

Whereas the United States has enacted several laws, including the Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act of 2003 (22 U.S.C. 2151 note) and the Iran and Libya Sanctions Act of 1996 (50 U.S.C. 1701 note), that call for the imposition of sanctions on Syria and Iran for, among other things, their support for terrorism and terrorist organizations;

You, yourself, back telling our enemies to stop funding terrorism, and, as President, you would be bound to enforce the Sanctions asked for by Congress. And President Bush *affirms* that he abides by and supports these actions by Congress and will carry them out (White House 07 MAY 2008). The National Security Advisor Steve Hadley took questions regarding the Syrian nuclear reactor and the US response, and got this question ( 06 AUG 2006 ):

Q Steve, is the administration now going to talk to Iran and Syria to make this point, and try to have some back-and-forth with them? As you know, many of your critics say you haven't been talking to your enemies, who actually hold the key to this.

MR. HADLEY: Well, in some sense, you know, every time someone like me gets up and talks and says what they've just said, we've sent a message to Syria and Iran. I mean, it's not as if they don't hear what has been said.

Secondly, in terms of both of these countries, there are a number of countries that are sending the same message. That's really been an approach we have had both with respect to Syria and Iran, to try and get the international community and as many countries as we can sending the same message to Syria and Iran.

In terms of Iran, as you know, we are very anxious to enter into a discussion with Iran on their nuclear program. And we have proposed to do so if they will simply do what the international community, what the Europeans, who have been handling the diplomacy with them have called for, what the IAEA Board of Governors have called for, which is to suspend their nuclear enrichment programs.

So we would like very much to be entering into a discussion with Iran on that issue and potentially other issues. But they've got to take a step to show that they are willing to come into compliance with the international community.

Sen. Obama, are you favoring a 'unilateralist' approach or 'cowboy' diplomacy where 'America goes it alone'? Because that is the *exact same* set of charges put against the current Administration with regard to Afghanistan and Iraq, and considering all the allies that we have supporting us in BOTH endeavors, that really is a slight to those who 'look up to the US'. Why are *you* willing to turn your back on the 'international community'?

But don't you worry, those 'Iranian Moderate Clerics' will surely come to your aid just like they did with President Clinton!

Now it is time for the retro-rewind!

The then newly elected President Khatami, on 14 DEC 1997, told us that he would, indeed, seek better relations with the US (via GlobalSecurity.org VOA archives):

PRESIDENT KHATAMI TOLD A NEWS CONFERENCE SUNDAY IN TEHERAN HE WANTS TO HAVE A TALK SOON WITH THE PEOPLE OF THE UNITED STATES, BUT HE DID NOT SAY WHAT FORM THAT DIALOGUE WOULD TAKE. HE IMPLIED SUCH A DIALOGUE WOULD INCLUDE THE U-S GOVERNMENT, THOUGH HE ACCUSED U-S POLITICIANS OF HAVING FALLEN BEHIND THE TIMES. HE SAID IN A RAPIDLY CHANGING WORLD THAT HAS BECOME MULTI-POLAR, THE UNITED STATES STILL IMAGINES IT IS THE SOLE POWER AND IT MUST IMPOSE ITS POWER ON THE WORLD AT ANY COST. MR. KHATAMI IS A MODERATE SHITTE MUSLIM WHO WAS ELECTED PRESIDENT LAST MAY. SINCE THEN HE HAS SOFTENED RELATIONS WITH OTHER ARAB NATIONS, INCLUDING PRO-WESTERN SAUDI ARABIA.

Why a man after your own heart,no? Just the sort of man you want to support, isn't it? Unfortunately he didn't really seem to understand what was going on as he continued just a bit further in his press conference:

HE TOLD REPORTERS (SUNDAY) INSTEAD OF SPEAKING TO EACH OTHER WITH THE LANGUAGE OF FORCE, WE SHOULD LEARN TO SPEAK WITH THE LANGUAGE OF REASON.

MR. KHATAMI ALSO DISMISSED EFFORTS TO ESTABLISH PEACE WITH ISRAEL, WHICH HE DESCRIBED AS -- RACIST AND EXPANSIONIST. HE SAID ARAB COUNTRIES THAT HAD TRIED POLITICAL DIALOGUE WITH ISRAEL HAD GAINED NOTHING.

THE UNITED STATES SEVERED TIES WITH IRAN IN 1979 AFTER ISLAMIC MILITANTS STORMED THE U-S EMBASSY IN TEHERAN AND TOOK 52 AMERICANS HOSTAGE FOR MORE THAN A YEAR. THE UNITED STATES HAS TRIED TO OSTRACIZE IRAN AND HAS CALLED IT A TOP SPONSOR OF TERRORISM.

Say, would you say, Sen. Obama, that Egypt and Jordan, having made *peace* with Israel have gained nothing? Remember, now, that Khatami was a 'moderate' and President Clinton would try dropping some minor trade sanctions to see if they were reciprocated and Iran would start to recognize its duties not to destabilize other Nations. Doesn't look like they got the message, did they? Taking a look at the press briefing by James P. Rubin at the State Dept on 03 DEC 1999 (via GlobalSecurity.org document cache), we get to see what sort of response the US got and how the US utilizes its various channels to keep in contact with the Iranian regime:

US aim is to have official dialogue about issues of concern, including support for terrorism. US has not received hoped-for responses, on terrorism cooperation or on visas for Iranians to come to the US.

[..]

QUESTION: On the subject of terrorism in Saudi Arabia, could you tell us about the attempts by the United States to get Iranian support and help in uncovering who blew up Khobar Towers?

MR. RUBIN: Let me say in that regard, I think it should be understood that our objective here with Iran to have a dialogue is not have a dialogue for dialogue's sake; it's to have a dialogue so that we can engage in a process by which Iranian policies of concern would change, including our concern about Iranian support for terrorist organizations and those who are enemies of the peace process.

We have made clear that the policies changing is the objective. We have not received in our dialogue through - let me rewind that tape. We have had contacts, diplomatic contact, messages, to Iran. There is no secret about that. We don't have the kind of direct dialogue that we have been seeking in order to change those policies of concern.

We have not received from Iran, the government of Iran, the kind of responses that we have been hoping for on a wide range of issues, including on the cooperation we seek in investigating acts of terrorism. That is unfortunate and, generally speaking, the Iranian Government's response to our efforts in that area and also our efforts to try to make it easier for visas to be provided to Iranian Americans or Iranians who want to come to America, we've sought visits that would facilitate that process that many people in Iran want, which is to have an ability to come to the United States.

So on those two issues, cooperation on terrorism and making it easier for visas to be provided for Iranians visiting the United States, the Iranian Government's response has tended to be hide-bound and unimaginative.

So that is the state of play. We still believe that it is in our interest to have a dialogue in which our concerns, primarily terrorism and active opposition to the Middle East peace process can be pursued, but it's a fundamental misunderstanding if there is an impression that we're seeking a dialogue for dialogue's sake.

A few points for the good Sen. Obama to ponder: does he want 'dialogue for the sake of dialogue'? That *is* what that 'hope and change' view has as its basis with a 'fresh face' showing up to hold dialogue with Iran. Even the CLINTONS understood that was not productive with the regime in Tehran. They utilized something known as 'back channel discussions' to remain in contact with the regime via other means. Also note that the Clinton Administration was doing both the 'high' end approach on 'hardball' with terrorist issues and the 'softball' approach with regards to getting Iranian individuals visas to come and visit the US. Both of them *failed*. And who failed them? Was it the Clinton Administration for lack of seeking 'dialogue'?

No.

It was in the hands of Iran and they spoke very nicely of opening up 'dialogue' but the pre-condition of condemning Israel and getting the US to stop supporting Israel meant that it was *not* an offer made on 'reason'.

Now, about that 'stability in the Middle East' part that Sen. Obama seeks to achieve with Iran, during that exact, same press conference the Clinton Administration gave its view on just that topic... again, this is 1999:

QUESTION: Just to go back to Iran for a moment, it seems that you've often described the potential US relationship with Iran in sort of addressing the negatives - support for terrorism, opposition to the Middle East peace process - and I wonder if you have any thought about what value, what positive value, the US might have in relations with Iran?

MR. RUBIN: We believe Iran is an important country. It is located in a very important area. Our two peoples have a long and friendly history prior to the most recent developments in the late '70s and throughout the '80s, and we believe that Iran is located in a part of the world that's important to us.

We believe that the people of Iran would benefit from increasing interaction with the people of the United States. We believe the people of the United States would benefit from the interaction of the long and proud culture of Persia and Iran, and there is much to be gained on both sides, but we do have problems. Those problems are real. Some of them have even increased recently, and I've spoken to that.

So pending a decision by the government of Iran to move to address those issues in a direct dialogue, we believe it's appropriate to facilitate and promote a dialogue of the peoples of the United States and Iran in an analogous way to that proposed by President Khatami of a dialogue of civilizations. We welcome that. We support that. We want that to go forward. We think it brings great benefit to both of our peoples.

We think a relationship that could overcome major problems if we could get Iran to stop supporting the opponents of the Middle East peace process, we think that it would make the Middle East a much more stable place, and that would be good for everybody. We think that if we could make progress on stopping Iran's support for those groups that engage in terrorist activities, that would make the world a safer place, and that would be very important.

Beyond that, the potential for a more normal relationship was put out there and put forward by Secretary Albright in a speech in New York - I think it was a year and a half ago - but it's very hard to discuss the fruits of that normal relationship at a time when we can't even get Iran to see the wisdom in talking about the problems that we think exist.

Yes, even the Clinton Administration couldn't get Khatami or Iran to see the light of 'reason'. They, instead, put forward the 'cultural' approach and were rebuffed on that, too. Apparently no one has ignored the Iranian People, save their very own government, which is the problem there. Considering that Sen. Obama should *know* all of this, then why is it that he puts such stock on 'dialogue' when one partner refuses to show up in the *least* ways? Also, there wasn't a US presence in Iraq, then, so the destabilizing of the Middle East by the Iranian regime pre-dates that by quite a lot.

Now it is time for the retro-rewind by going back to the *previous* Administration, that of Bush-41 and getting his view on Iran from a 25 MAY 1990 interview excerpt (via GlobalSecurity.org archives) he did with French television:

Q: What would you fear most today, Mr. President, communism or the growing of Muslim fundamentalism?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, I haven't thought about that in terms of priorities. Communism is on the wane, it's on the way out. In our hemisphere, there's only one left, and that's Castro. And I don't know what he believes because he -- but he darn sure can't be excited about the way things are going for good, old communists; going down the drain. And so -- and I think when you see people have a free choice, nobody's speaking up, hey, I want to have a communist government. It just isn't happening. And so I don't fear communism at all.

I don't like that ideology and so I worry about that. But in terms of Muslim fundamentalism, the real extremes there, I am concerned about that. We lived through a terrible time in Iran. We still have difficulties there. But I'm hopeful some day we can have better relations. Because I think Mr. Rafsanjani is showing a sense of reasonableness in some areas that perhaps his predecessor didn't feel he could show, or didn't feel like showing.

So I worry about this problem.

Yes, Rafsanjani would be yet another 'moderate' in Iran that would lead to NO changes in its stance. But President Bush did have 'hope and change' on his mind, make no mistake about it! But that hope about change would prove very short lived as a press release of 19 JUL 1990 by Congressmen would show (Source: GlobalSecurity.org archives):

Washington, D.C. -- Congressman Mervyn M. Dymally, (D- Compton, CA) announced that he and 161 of his colleagues have written to the president of Iran's National Council of Resistance, Mr. Massoud Rajavi, extending their "profound sympathies" to him about the assassination of his brother, Dr. Kazem Rajavi, noting that they share his view that "decisiveness is required to confront Tehran's medieval dictatorship."

The 162 Representatives cited the Tehran-sponsored terrorist assassination on April 24, 1990, of Dr. Kazem Rajavi, whom they called "a great advocate of human rights, who had dedicated his life to the establishment of democracy in his homeland." The Congressmen expressed their support for the democratic resistance in Iran saying, "We ask you, as the Leader of the Iranian Resistance, to assure your countrymen that we support their peaceful and democratic aims."

The letter signed by 100 Democrats and 62 Republicans, says that "Dr. Rajavi's assassination is but-more proof of Tehran's continuing insistence to use terrorism as the principal and indispensable pillar of its foreign policy," and emphasizes that the Representatives share Mr. Rajavi's view that "any negligence or flexibility vis-a-vis the crimes of this regime only encourages it to export terrorism."

"One year after the death of Khomeini, the Iranian president Hashemi Rafsanjani has proven that he is as immoderate as Khomeini, by continuing the repressive and terrorist policies of his mentor," said Congressman Dymally.

"The internal oppression also has continued despite the visit to Tehran by the United Nations' Special Representative," Reynaldo Galindo Pohl stated the letter. Congressman Dymally described Galindo Pohl's report, as "whitewash and a disgrace for the United Nations" and considered it "a green light" to the Iran regime to carry out such crimes as the one in Geneva.

On June 22, 1990, the Swiss Police issued a report saying that Iranian government agencies had directly planned and carried out the murder of Dr. Kazem Rajavi. The report stated that the assassination team carried Iranian government service passports -- "all issued on the same date" -- and flew between Tehran and Geneva on Iran Air.

Tehran felt that reaching out and assassinating supporters overseas was a good idea, and Dr. Rajavi was neither the first nor the last to be killed for the regime's goals. And do note the 'helpfulness' of the 'international community', here! Apparently use of terrorism to destabilize the region and enforce its clerical view extends far beyond the borders of Iran, Sen. Obama. The 'hope & change' has been seen many times before in Iran and we have yet to see a damned thing result from hoped for change. Instead we get assassinations, attacks on sovereign States and destabilization with a goal of spreading Iranian influence and power.

The Clinton Administration tried to use *that* to its advantage, believe it or not! The place that it tried that was Bosnia, and I took a pretty long, hard look at that failed policy awhile back. From that lets take a look at a DEMOCRAT who criticized it when Rep. Lee Hamilton (D-IN) asked the State Dept. for its views and got them in a letter from Barbara Larkin, Acting Assistant Secretary, Legislative Affairs dated 20 MAY 1996, which he had put into the Congressional Record: June 11, 1996 (Extensions), DOCID:cr11jn96-22, THIRD-COUNTRY ARMS DELIVERIES TO BOSNIA AND CROATIA, an excerpt follows:

The political and military dynamic in Bosnia changed in March 1994. In that month, as a result of active U.S. mediation by our Special Envoy, Ambassador Charles Redman, the leaders of Bosnia, Croatia, and the Bosnian Croat community signed agreements ending their military conflict and setting up a bi-communal Federation between Bonsia's Muslims and ethnic Croats. The newly born Federation immediately received strong U.S. diplomatic support, and deservedly so; its founding principles reflected pluralistic Western values and the cease-fire it engendered helped free up government forces to defend their country against the Serbs and, over time, altered the military balance.

When President Tudjman of Croatia approached Ambassador Galbraith in Zagreb in April 1994 to elicit U.S. views on allowing third-country arms shipments to Bosnia via Croatia, we determined that a negative response could have led to the collapse of the Federation and a new deterioration of the Bosnian Government's military position. Instead, we decided that the best course was neither to object to nor approve of arms transfers to Bosnia through Croatia. This was consistent with our practice in the preceding months not to take active steps to prevent third-country arms shipments. At the same time, we did not believe it would have been appropriate to endorse actions contrary to UN Security Council resolutions. Thus we told Ambassador Galbraith to state that he had "no instructions" on the matter.

Our decision eventually bore fruit. By sustaining the Federation and eroding the Serbs' military advantage, it paved the way for the American diplomacy, backed by NATO air power, that produced the peace agreement at Dayton. Our decision allowed us both to observe our legal obligations under UN Security Council Resolution 713 and to promote the achievement of peace.

How did the Administration assess the implications of such a policy change on international adherence to UN Security Council Resolution 713 and U.S. efforts to get friends and allies to stop trade, economic dealings, and investment ties with Iran?

Iran's entry into the Bosnian conflict occurred long before the April 1994 decision. Iranian efforts to gain influence in Bosnia date back to the 1980s. They gained momentum in 1991-92, in the early stages of the war, when the international community proved unable to confront Serb aggression. During this period, despite the UN arms embargo, Iran established itself as Bosnia's principal arms supplier and dispatched hundreds of Revolutionary Guard and other personnel to assist in training Bosnian Government forces. Iranian military aid was part of a multi-pronged campaign of support that also included intelligence cooperation along with economic and humanitarian assistance. We have no evidence that Iran's presence in Bosnia increased significantly after April 1994. It is also worth noting that, through the Dayton Accords and subsequent diplomacy, we have reduced Iranian military influence in Bosnia to its lowest levels in years.

The April 1994 decision had no discernable impact on U.S. efforts to gain international support for the use of economic pressure to alter Iran's objectionable behavior, including its support for terrorism and pursuit of weapons of mass destruction. Prior to 1994, our Allies had generally been unresponsive to our requests that they not provide Iran with economic benefits such as new official credits and loan guarantees. In the past year, however, following the President's decision to impose a trade and investment embargo against Iran, most European countries have substantially reduced the pace and volume of economic activity with Iran. We continue to urge European governments to join our efforts to pressure Iran economically. Based on our ongoing consultations, including the April 19 meeting in Rome of the U.S.-EU-Canada Working Group on Iran, we have concluded that the April 1994 decision has not significantly affected our Iran diplomacy.

Did the United States have discussions regarding these deliveries only with the Croatian and Bosnian authorities, or did the United States also have discussions directly with third countries supplying or financing these arms deliveries?

The United States had no communications with Iran regarding arms for Bosnia, nor are we aware of any occasion on which U.S. officials, in any discussions with other countries, requested them to transfer arms to Bosnia or Croatia.

What countries besides Iran were involved in the financing and delivery of arms to Bosnia? Were Malaysia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, or Egypt involved?

We have provided classified documents which address this question to the Senate Intelligence Committee and we will provide these same materials to appropriate Congressional committees that request them.

If there was a change of policy, why was there a change of policy, and who was informed of it? Was Congress informed, were Allies informed, and were all appropriate officials of the United States informed about a change in policy that affected stated, public policy? If not, why not?

In order to succeed, the thrust of our diplomatic activity both before and after April 1994--adhering to our obligations under UN resolutions, maintaining the cohesion of the Western Alliance, while not taking action to prevent the Bosnians from receiving weapons--required great discretion. That is why the Administration kept the April 1994 discussions with the Croatian government closely held within its own ranks.

It should be noted, however, that the Congressional leadership and relevant committees were made aware of the existence of Iranian arms shipments both from Administration-provided intelligence briefings and press reports. Furthermore, the U.S. decision not to object to such shipments was not inconsistent with the will of Congress as expressed in a June 1994 vote in the House of Representatives to lift the arms embargo unilaterally. In October 1994, the full Congress voted to cut off funds for U.S. enforcement of the arms embargo. No exception for Iranian arms was contained in the legislation, nor was any such exception proposed during the debate.

There you have a lovely 'change' in reading of Congressional language in the 'hope' things would work out well. Don't mind the civil war that followed. Mind you the 'hope' was that if we gave Iran some free-play in Bosnia it would 'change' its attitude towards the US and give us some 'Arab street cred'. It did neither of those things. So we now have the following Administrations looking to 'hope & change' and not getting it: Bush (41), Clinton, Bush (43).

It's retro-rewind time!

Now, as Sen. Obama put President Reagan up as a modicum of how a leader for 'hope & change' can act, lets take a look at HIM with regards to Iran. And if you are a Democrat you will try to play this up while playing down Clinton, but that no longer washes... what we are seeing is something else that I talked about, which is 'Realism in Foreign Policy' and how that made the world a worse place, not a better one. Part of the insanity that went on during the Reagan Administration involved the putative 'personal outreach' to Khomeini by Reagan, himself. What did he do? He sent Khomeini a CAKE! (Source: The story behind Reagan's dealings with the mullahs by George J. Church, Time Magazine, 17 NOV 1986) This was part of a much larger initiative that would become Iran/Contra and Arms for Hostages:

The tale sounded really too bizarre to be believed. The U.S. conniving at arms shipments to Iran? Sending a secret mission to palaver with the mullahs? Trying to keep the whole thing from Congress and most of the U.S. Government? And all over Iran, of all places! The country that held Americans hostage for 444 days beginning in 1979, the land whose fanatical leader, Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini, has never ceased to denounce America as the "Great Satan," the state widely suspected to this very day of fomenting terrorist attacks against Americans.

Yet there is no question that it happened. Initially in the perhaps illusory hope of gaining influence with a post-Khomeini government in Iran, but eventually also as an inducement for Iranian help in winning freedom for U.S. hostages held by Muslim zealots in Lebanon, the Reagan Administration approved clandestine shipments of military equipment -- ammunition, spare parts for tanks and jet fighters -- to Iran through Israel.

As long as the deep secret was kept -- even from most of the U.S. intelligence community -- the maneuver in one sense worked. Iran apparently leaned on Lebanese terrorists to set free three American hostages, the latest of whom, David Jacobsen, flew home to the U.S. last week for a Rose Garden meeting with Ronald Reagan. But once the broad outlines of the incredible story became known, the consequences were dire. The Administration appeared to have violated at least the spirit, and possibly the letter, of a long succession of U.S. laws that are intended to stop any arms transfers, direct ( or indirect, to Iran. Washington looked to be sabotaging its own efforts to organize a worldwide embargo against arms sales to Iran, and hypocritically flouting its incessant admonitions to friends and allies not to negotiate with terrorists for the release of their captives.

Now isn't that right up the 'hope & change' alley?

The entire 'neat idea' brain fart by North/Hakim/Secord would put one of the most dangerous representatives of one of the oldest drug dealing families from Syria right in the laps of the 'emerging market' for illegal narcotics and terrorism in South America: Monzer al-Kassar. To refresh the memories of those who are willing to forget this problem during the Reagan Administration, let me pull up a bit from Chapter 8 of the Walsh Report on Iran/Contra:

Phases V-VII of the Contra Arms Sales (March-June 1986)

Between February 27 and May 23, 1986, the Enterprise paid Defex Portugal about $860,000 for contra weapons. Weapons were delivered to Central America in March, April and May in three shipments. CSF books show profit distributions between April and June, numbered Phases V through VII, totaling $550,471. In addition, there was an unnumbered distribution of $37,277 on June 20, 1986, resulting from the Phase VII shipment.
The Undelivered Shipment and Distribution (July-September 1986)

In July 1986, the Enterprise paid Defex (Portugal) $2.6 million and $500,000 to another dealer, Monzer Al Kassar, for contra weapons. In late July, a shipment of arms left Portugal for Central America aboard the recently acquired Enterprise freighter, the Erria.8 According to Thomas Parlow, the Erria's Danish shipping agent, the freighter was carrying arms picked up in Poland and Portugal.9

8 Clines, Hakim and William Haskell, an associate of North, traveled to Copenhagen in April 1986 to purchase for approximately $320,000 the Erria, which the Enterprise had leased a year earlier for a weapons shipment to the contras. The ship was purchased by the Enterprise in the name of Dolmy Business Inc., a Panamanian shell company. Thomas Parlow became the Erria's Danish shipping agent. According to Parlow, Hakim would telephone Parlow to direct movement of the ship, and Parlow would communicate those directions to the ship's captain. (Parlow, FBI 302, 3/5/87, pp. 2-3.)

9 Ibid., p. 3.

As the Erria was nearing Bermuda, Parlow, acting on instructions from Hakim, ordered it to slow its speed and await further instructions. Clines then directed the ship to work its way slowly back to Portugal.10 When it arrived in Portugal it could not obtain permission to enter the port. In this mid- to late-August 1986 period, Secord ordered Clines to try to sell the cargo or dump it at sea, according to Parlow. The vessel headed for Spain, where it remained anchored for two weeks.

10 The ship apparently was ordered back to Europe because it was to be used in an impending U.S.-Israeli venture involving Iran.

As the Erria made its circuitous journey, the CIA through a series of commercial entities arranged to buy the weapons aboard. According to CIA officials, they did not learn the identity of either the owner of the ship or its cargo until January 1987, when a newspaper article named the Secord-Hakim Enterprise as the owner of the ship and the weapons.

The CIA paid $2.1 million for the arms shipment, including shipping and handling costs.11 According to the private arms dealer who bought the arms for the CIA, he paid $1.6 million for the weapons. Of that, the Enterprise received $1.2 million, and the remainder went to Parlow or Defex, who worked together to re-sell the weapons.

Yes, the money amounts aren't all that much in the arms business, but the *contacts* necessary to swing that entire shipment and keep contacts open with Iran puts Monzer al-Kassar in close proximity to the up and coming Carlos Menem and they would become intertwined in ways that we still cannot figure out, save for the trail of corpses behind them. That man would not only show up in Iran/Contra, but in the *other* big story coming up during that era and be cited as a player in the BCCI report:

4. BCCI's relationships with convicted Iraqi arms dealer Sarkis Soghanalian, Syrian drug trafficker, terrorist, and arms trafficker Monzer Al-Kassar, and other major arms dealers. Sarkenalian was a principal seller of arms to Iraq. Monzer Al-Kassar has been implicated in terrorist bombings in connection with terrorist organizations such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Other arms dealers, including some who provided machine guns and trained Medellin cartel death squads, also used BCCI. Tracing their assets through the bank would likely lead to important information concerning international terrorist and arms trafficker networks.

5. The use of BCCI by central figures in arms sales to Iran during the 1980's. The late Cyrus Hashemi, a key figure in allegations concerning an alleged deal involving the return of U.S. hostages from Iran in 1980, banked at BCCI London. His records have been withheld from disclosure to the Subcommittee by a British judge. Their release might aid in reaching judgments concerning Hashemi's activities in 1980, with the CIA under President Carter and allegedly with William Casey.

6. BCCI's activities with the Central Bank of Syria and with the Foreign Trade Mission of the Soviet Union in London. BCCI was used by both the Syrian and Soviet governments in the period in which each was involved in supporting activities hostile to the United States. Obtaining the records of those financial transactions would be critical to understanding what the Soviet Union under Brezhnev, Chernenko, and Andropov was doing in the West; and might document the nature and extent of Syria's support for international terrorism.

Yes, within the Top 5 of 'things that really need to be done' from that report! And do note his already existing ties to terrorist organizations elsewhere. The grand part of this is that Monzer al-Kassar is a SYRIAN. Beautiful, is it not? 'Hope & Change' applied to BOTH Iran and Syria via the Iran/Contra scandal? You can't get much more 'hope & change'-ful than trying to negotiate arms shipments for hostage releases via organized crime that supports narcotics trafficking and terrorism on a global scale. You could probably find out how Saddam felt about that, being that there was the Iran-Iraq war going on at the time, from your friend and cousin Saddam Hussein, Nadhmi Auchi. Really with Auchi's connections in organized crime, money laundering and terrorism, you can start a whole new style of 'hope & change' and bypass some of the intermediaries that would plague the Reagan Administration: might as well start out with corruption at the top, no?

And none of this *dealing* would help when the US went in to try and 'stabilize' a small part of the Middle East known as Lebanon. Sen. Obama has, apparently, forgotten that the last time the US made a big, bold and limited venture with the French to help put a lid on things and get Iran and Syria to the 'stabilization' concept, we would end up with our Beirut Embassy being bombed, our Marine Barracks being bombed along with the French camp, and then, after we had skedaddled leaving American blood in Lebanon, our Embassy was bombed *again* in a 'stay out and we mean it' sort of affair. It was their lovely child called Hezbollah under the guidance of Imad Mugniyah who accomplished that, and would later team up with al-Kassar in Argentina for some slaughter there, too. Thank heavens that beast is finally dead, not that we did anything to get him, mind you.

Speaking of which, the reason al-Kassar was going to Argentina, beyond opening up a heroin for cocaine swap between criminal enterprises, and flooding Europe with cocaine, was to get advanced missile technology and a nuclear reactor from Menem. Took a bit of nudging from the US to nix that, but we wound up with some of the worse expansion of organized crime, narcotics organizations, money laundering, arms dealing and terrorism the world had ever seen. One man really can make a difference!

Now its time to do the retro-rewind again!

Why, damn, we are back at the guy who helped to *cause* all these problems, President Jimmy Carter. I have traced this back before, but we might as well start at where 'hope & change' started: with laxness and malaise. But before *that* lets look at some of the folks advising Sen. Obama and the rest of the candidates at that time on foreign policy. You see one of the problems in the 'hope & change' category is the maladroitness of one of your advisors, Zbigniew Brzezinski. In an article from Policy Review at the Hoover Institution, we have Mark Bowden reviewing a book put out by Atlantic Monthly Press ( DEC 2006-JAN 2007 Policy Review) we get to see just how Mr. ZB looked at Iran, and you just might want to think a moment about a man who wanted to back the Shah of Iran 'to the hilt' and guaranteed that, while Secretary of State Cyrus Vance wanted to come to terms with Iran. That was all part of the series of events that led to the first US Embassy break-in in Iran ( FEB 1979) and the second break-in and hostage taking on 04 NOV 1979. Mr. ZB would want to back the Shah 'to the hilt' unless Iran was willing to come over to the US side of the Cold War, in which case he was more than ready to dump the Shah. When Henry Kissinger and Nelson Rockefeller were able to persuade the Carter Administration to take in the ailing Shah, *then* we got the hostage taking. In other words, the Carter Administration was dealing different cards with Mr. ZB and Cyrus Vance, each of whom assumed that Iran was going to be a 'rational state actor' just like all the other Nations on the planet. But Khomeini had his own 'hope & change' that wanted nothing to do with 'Great Power Politics' and was all for overthrowing absolutely everything in the aim of getting a Global Islamic State.

Apparently Mr. ZB couldn't grasp that and tried to appease Iran by putting forward a 'Green Belt' of Islamic States between the US and USSR. He was hoping that Iran would form up a league of 'moderate muslim' states to confront the USSR! Of course Iraq, France and a few other countries had told us just how radical Khomeini *was* and that his idea of a 'Green Belt' was a one-way, Caliphate-only affair. Somewhere near the end of his term, President Carter finally had the dawning light appear to him, in the form of an election not going so well for him, that he was being dealt with in bad faith by Iran and that they were playing *political games* to wound his Administration and get him out of power. His response to all of this was to sit in the Rose Garden, go 'tut-tut' and do very little. Of course he did try a rescue attempt, but since the US Armed Forces still had not rebuilt nor recovered morale since Vietnam, that operation was an advanced CF of the worst kind.

Say, what was that about you wanting to cut advanced weapons systems and training, Sen. Obama? Sound like the Jimmy Carter prescription for disaster to me...

But then I was in the US during that part of the Cold War. I didn't get to be a Kansan-Hawaiin that would spend time in Indonesia and lead a cushioned life insulated from the concept that a sudden nuclear decision in the Kremlin would give me a permanent bad hair day that was terminal. Nor did I get to go through an Ivy League school to rack up tons of debt nor a lovely multi-hundreds of thousands a year job with which to pay it off, all the time garnering lofty ideas of racial separation and how bad the US was and that we deserved everything we got. The feeling with Carter was, at least from my neck of the woods, that he should do something to storm in there and get our people freed just as was done during the Spanish Civil War and other times when US Citizens in government employment overseas were taken hostage by hostiles. I was utterly appalled by President Reagan actually *dealing* with such barbaric characters, and seeking to pay them off, which is something the US has assiduously tried to avoid since President Jefferson not wanting to spend one cent for tribute but millions for defense of our citizens. When those practicing Private War upon the high seas endangered US commerce, President Jackson sent the first US vessel to circumnavigate the planet: the frigate USS Potomac.

When we *stopped* defending our citizens who had joined our government on the CIVIL SIDE or who were engaged in normal commerce and fully protected under the Law of Nations from unjust attacks, then things started to go very, very wrong.

But then you wouldn't recognize that as justice, but 'imperialism' that standing up for your fellow citizen and ensuring he is safe from the depredation of those practicing Private War. No, you want to talk with those seeking to dismantle Nations so that they may rule the planet to their own petty desires. Apparently we have tried talking with them, beseeching with them to act in a civilized manner, to show any hint of understanding of reason and reciprocity amongst Nations. Some of your fellow Congresscrittes have been making regular pilgrimages to Syria, for years now, and we have no let-up in the Syrian stance on things. Here is what came of Congressman Rahall's trip:

Damascus, Syria -- The Middle East peace process "is a process that must succeed, and that is our position, that we want to see that process succeed," Congressman Nick J. Rahall (Democrat, West Virginia) said at an on-the-record press briefing here January 7.

Rahall, who is leading a congressional delegation to the Middle East that includes Representatives Dana Rohrabacher (Republican, California) and Maurice Hinchey (Democrat, New York), said "Our mission is to build upon the strong relationships we have with the Syrian people, both on a personal basis and the bilateral relationships that exist between the Syrian and the American government. We hope to use our dialogue while in the country to open up the peace process once again."

Noting that this was his first visit to the region, Congressman Rohrabacher said he believes the people of the region are "heartsick for peace" and that "there is an opportunity today to further the cause of peace and to come, at last, to an understanding among the parties here in the region that will lead to a lasting peace."

"There have been a number of examples recently of a ... new fresh wind blowing across this part of the world," Congressman Hinchey said. "There are opportunities to sweep away some of the mistakes of the past, particularly the last two decades. And we hope that this opportunity will be taken advantage of and that we can move forward in a more positive way, both my country, your country, the other countries of this region...."

That trip was in 1998. Notice the 'new fresh wind' and all of that? Lots of 'hope & change' there and everyone was ready to 'make nice' after a couple of decades of having Israel being attacked, the triple bombings in Beirut against the US... yes, lets just sweep that all under the rug now! As for the most recent trip let see what Rep. Joe Pitts had to say on this:

"Dialogue is not a sign of weakness," Pitts said after returning home Wednesday. "It's a sign of strength."

[..]

"The first thing we said was … to appeal to the Syrian government to stop the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq with (explosives) and killing our soldiers in Iraq," Pitts said. The Republicans also talked about stopping Syrian support of Hamas and Hezbollah and Syrian involvement in Lebanon, he said.

[..]

"He denied that there were terrorists that they knew about going through their country," Pitts said. "(The Syrians) said if you have evidence, give it to us, and we'll act on it.

"They were interested in diplomacy. They want respect. Basically, they feel we have talked down to them, and we don't treat them with civility and as an equal." (Thank you to the Lancaster Online for this 05 APR 2007 report!)

Why, Sen. Obama, aren't you stealing someone else's 'hope & change' ideas? All they want is a some respect and civility for breaking their agreements on WMD creation and proliferation of technology. A mere *nothing* to someone ready for all this 'hope & change' stuff, no?

The last man who went to talk to and appease a tyrant was Neville Chamberlain and our media lauded him as seen in this American Radio Account:

Now we know that Neville Chamberlain, who is a Realist and masterful man, has made up his mind that the time has come to give up attempts at ideal solutions to the European problems, such as through the League of Nations. To deal with facts, as he found them, and the two outstanding facts were the two dictators, Hitler and Moussolini. Both had grievances that had to be recognized and it's possible were right. Before Europe would turn over in bed and most dream comfortably. And Chamberlain told his Cabinet that he was going to settle this and on a Realist basis.
Ah, such a great idea giving up attempts at 'ideal solutions' and just working with dictators and tyrants who have grievances and giving them what they want. Half-a-loaf and all that! Of course you dare not isolate a tyrant and dictator... why, that is just something that is far too civilized to even consider, as Arthur Henderson points out:
But to cut off relations with an aggressor may often invite retaliation by armed action, and this would, in its turn, make necessary some form of collective self-defence by the loyal members of the League.
Yes, if you don't talk to dictators they just might get a bit irate and do something to you! Can't have that now, can we? Arthur Henderson died in 1935 before the outcomes of what that sort of mental attitude did to the world by the policies it created. Policies that sound something like this:
Given the ability of Iran and Syria to influence events within Iraq and their interest in avoiding chaos in Iraq, the United States should try to engage them constructively. In seeking to influence the behavior of both countries, the United States has disincentives and incentives available. Iran should stem the flow of arms and training to Iraq, respect Iraq’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and use its influence over Iraqi Shia groups to encourage national reconciliation. The issue of Iran’s nuclear programs should continue to be dealt with by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany. Syria should control its border with Iraq to stem the flow of funding, insurgents, and terrorists in and out of Iraq.

Why, are you sure that Iran and Syria just haven't resorted to 'collective self-defense'? Wouldn't that be the lovely excuse to deploy about whey they feel so aggrieved in the world, Sen. Obama? That is, of course, from the Iraq Study Group report, page 7. Which was so enlightened and 'bi-partisan' that it recommends seeking to ask States that are exporting terrorism to destabilize a neighbor if they might, pretty please, think about not doing that? Unfortunately for the very high minded 'Realists' they cannot seem to deal with irrational leaders of Nations, which puts them in a bind when they run across same.

How about you, Sen. Obama? Just how do you deal with irrational world leaders that are in charge of Nations seeking to export terror, destruction and seek to dominate more and more of our globe? Because, somehow, as seeing the US as the *problem* in the world and wanting us to start disarming in the face of those seeking genocide and domination, I just don't see that attitude as coming to a good end. But that is history for you! Where the 'ideal solution' of wanting leaders of Nations to act in a responsible manner with other Nations just isn't 'Realistic'.

And not doing so is suicidal.