Showing posts with label political. Show all posts
Showing posts with label political. Show all posts

19 July 2010

Technobabble, Bureauratese and Elitism

When reading Angelo M. Codevilla's piece on America's Ruling Class -- And the Perils of Revolution at the American Spectator (JUL-AUG 2010 issue) I got to thinking about some concepts that had been present in my past work with other aspects of society: the science-fiction, science and technical communities.  One of the main aspects of them deals with words, jargon and how they dove-tail in creating communities.

From Wikipedia, YMMV:

Technobabble (a portmanteau of technology and babble), also called technospeak[1], is a form of prose using jargon, buzzwords and highly esoteric language to give an impression of plausibility through mystification, misdirection, and obfuscation. Someone who does not understand a technical description that necessarily contains many technical terms may describe it as technobabble,[2] but it also can describe prose intentionally made obscure through gratuitous technical terms and technical slang.

From Merriam-Webster online:

bu·reau·crat·ese

Pronunciation: \ˌbyu̇r-ə-(ˌ)kra-ˈtēz, -ˈtēs, ˌbyər-\

Function: noun

Date: 1949

: a style of language held to be characteristic of bureaucrats and marked by abstractions, jargon, euphemisms, and circumlocutions

I've had to partake of both of those worlds of jargon-speak, plus a number of other venues in the science fiction and fantasy realms that feature such word use and creation (like Treknobabble).  The use and utility of words in the english language means that new words formed by the importation of words from other languages and the contraction or compounding of older words or the creation of acronyms (like RADAR) allow for the language to be highly fluid and adaptable to new situations.  While the French try to keep their language 'pure' via an official government committee, those who speak english in a varieties of dialects, pidgins and other culturally derived forms (ex. Spanglish) means that speakers of english can call a CD-ROM as a 'CD' and think nothing of it, while the official French language (as opposed to common, everyday, on the ground spoken french) does not allow 'le CD'.  English, as a language, picked up traits from other languages (like the propensity of German words to just add in entire other words until you have to contract them down to something you can say in a single breath) and the use of linguistic short-hand allows for the entire richness of english to have humor types that aren't even conceived of in other languages ('time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like a banana').

The massive downside of that is in the realm of specialization, and it doesn't matter if it is scientific, religious, political, or the type of wine or beer you like, the jargon of any specialized field can sound very authoritative and important to an outside, while being relatively innocuous for those who are 'in the know'.  Thus 'Anthropogenic Global Warming' sounds very important but is, in actuality, a hypothesis that the tiny amount of carbon dioxide increase seen during the span of man on the planet means we are all going to die as everything is flooded out and choked to death by poison.  Don't mind the fact that the planet has had far more carbon dioxide in its atmosphere in the past and that this has never happened (because we are here to talk about it), and that such things as solar radiance, cloud cover, and the relatively shallow ocean basins and lack of circumglobal oceanic currents from the creation of the Isthmus of Panama have put us into a cyclic and somewhat chaotic glaciation cycle that won't abate no matter if we burn every last hydrocarbon on the planet.  The technobabble and very important looking graphs with misleading scales and representation standards make it all sound very convincing because, you know, a scientist said it.  And scientists were taken in by Piltdown Man and created a lovely, and utterly backwards system of science in the USSR called Lysenkoism because it catered to politicians, not due to it having any basis in science, at all.  Carbon dioxide is used by plants to grow, a necessary inert gas that helps us breathe and relatively innocuous (unlike that evil dihydrogen monoxide).

Technobabble serves as an 'in-group' identifier, a means to show you actually are part of some group and hold similar beliefs to it by being able to talk in its jargon.  Speak the lingo in a passable fashion and you get accepted.  Nodding your head in agreement helps bunches, too.

Because it is an 'in-group' linguistic system it can also be used to stonewall those outside the 'in-group' by claiming that they 'don't understand what they are talking about'.  To learn the jargon you must accept the premises of such groups so as to understand what they are getting at, even if the jargon is nonsensical as created and applied.  That is how AGW, Piltdown Man and Lysenkoism actually got anywhere: they purported to show certain findings and correlations while, in fact, they were doing no such thing and yet utilized a variant of existing jargon to give some foundation to their outlooks.  Of course scientific fraud has a relatively short shelf-life as it requires repeatability to it, that is you can repeat the exact, same experiment with the exact, same conditions and come up with the exact, same results (+/- 10% due to measurement error).  Lysenkoism fell apart when Communist Genetics proved not to work in any way that was meaningful, for which we are all deeply thankful.  Piltdown Man went down under analysis of the actual bones to show they were not only not of the same individual, not of the same species but not of the same time period.  AGW is coming apart as the very basic concept of 'being able to show one's base data without any corrections done to it' cannot be met, and entire global datasets now have to be rebuilt from scratch due to the non-diligence and obfuscation of the researchers in the field.

While Lysenkoism only side-tracked Soviet genetic research, AGW is aimed directly at the heart of the industrial system to deny it energy production that isn't 'sustainable'.  Don't ever ask what 'sustainable' actually means, or the time frame of it, because there is no, zero answer to that.  When the answers vary from 'now, immediately! if not sooner!!!' to 'over the next thousand years or so', you know you are no longer talking about science, technology, economics, nor any other aspect of meaningful lingo.  'Sustainable' is a feel-good term that is too fluid to mean much of anything when applied to economics, science or technology.  If using fossil fuels, mining for ore and doing anything other than growing plants, and then only 'sustainable plants' is an objective, then the entire planet was absolutely sustainable in the late Neolithic period.  Save for all that wood burning, of course, we would have to drop that and get to mankind before the taming of fire.  That was perfectly 'sustainable'.  Miserable in the extreme with short life spans, rampant disease, high infant mortality rates, and so on and on.

Blending alarmism into technobabble gets you emotionally laden terms that mean very little.  This has happened in religion where personal salvation, standing before your creator after you die to account for your life, is replaced by group-think or collective salvation where everyone must think alike, act alike and be controlled alike to be saved...too bad accountability is on a retail, not wholesale business level, huh?  Collectivism is a creation of not only religious groups but of followers of Marx who believe in some 'will of the collective' to guide society.  Using such concepts creates an 'in-group' that then talk about all sorts of lovely things to be done to 'save' the 'poor' by depriving ordinary citizens of the fruits of their labors so that the poor can be 'uplifted' from poverty.  You know, steal a fish from one man to make him go hungry so you can feed another to keep him indebted to you, so the two of you can gang up on the first man to enslave him?  That sort of thing.  This only works by the importation of emotionally laden terms of 'wealth' and 'rich' and 'wealthy' that most people don't believe applies to them, yet those wishing to do the stealing tell you its on the upper X% of society.  That X factor is always, without fail, no matter what is said, 49.  Basically if the lowest 1/8th of the wealthiest (that 49%) can be convinced that they aren't 'wealthy' then the scam is on.  And when the top 3-5% join in as they have so much that losing 15% more won't matter to them, you then have a 'majority' to steal from those able to create wealth to give to the poor who can't.  Thus everyone gets poorer as those able to create wealth stop doing so because there is no pay-off in it for them, which then leaves the top 3-5% with any left-over wealth which which to rule everyone else as they beg for scraps.

But you meant to 'save the poor' and 'create a sustainable economy'!  And you did!  When 97% of the population is poor and the economy is ruled by a handful, that is sustainable for, oh, a decade or two, unless you have an beholden servant class and dedicated military class to keep the masses down.  That worked for thousands of years for Hydraulic Empires (Egypt, Babylon, China and other Nations having a major waterway) and can even be semi-benign due to the crushing poverty involved.  As technology goes up the sustainability of such societies must shift to the technocrats and military classes, so that Modern China revolves around the leadership, the crony capitalists beholden to the technocrats administering State guidance, and the ever present threat of military crackdown if you happen to think freedom is a neat idea.  That sort of thing aptly describes: Libya, Cuba, North Korea, Syria and Zimbabwe.  The proportions between adhering bureaucrats and technocrats to military varies, but they are, in sum total, higher than in feudal States of Europe (where 1 in 100 were in the nobility and aristocracy).  This gets closer to the Japanese culture when they closed off their contact with other cultures due to the higher percentage of their elite (1 in 10 for feudal Japan until Admiral Perry came along and even that didn't change things much until WWII).

The concept of being able to dictate from the Nation State level down to its population to get an adoring, or at least obedient or subservient people, is a common one across all cultures.  It is always presented as a 'solution' to social ills, and the programs used to mask it vary from the Kulturkampf against Roman Catholics to Gramsci's concepts of cultural hegemony that seeks to make 'common sense' not based on what one sees but on one's culture and a rising of 'class consciousness' to political consciousness which, instead of putting forward that all people are equal, puts forward that there are repressive groups in society and those that are repressed by them.  Each of these puts forward that there is an 'evil' in society (Roman Catholicism, capitalism and capitalism... yes the last two are depressingly the same thing) and that the only way to go after these 'evils' are via State based power.  By being able to put forward that there is a minority that 'controls' society to its own benefit and that a cultural reaction that seeks to put down that minority so as to gain 'authentic' majority control is then put forward with those doing so being the political class (or elite class) seeking to gain more power via villainization of a segment of society.  If you would just reject the minority and give more power to the rulers of the 'majority' then all will be well!  The White Knight, the One True Leader of the movement will then lead you into a land without repression and with lots of love, peace and prosperity!

Don't mind the repression from the military and police set up by these 'winners', their crushing laws applied to everyone and the poverty that ensues as the State seeks to subsume private wealth for the 'public good'.  Tens of millions have died following this fruitless dream that more power to the State yields a better life, peace and prosperity.  They are usually the ones elected to office and who seek to rig and game the system so as to never get challenged in their beliefs by marginalizing segments of populations via things like limiting representation and gerrymandering districts.  Why we never see THAT going on in the good old US of A, right?  Politicians who see their elected seat as THEIRS and not that of the people... who see fit to found political dynasties built upon the public coffers and handing out goodies to selected portions of the population instead of looking after the good of everyone.  Couldn't happen here, right?

That is what Mr. Codevilla is getting after: it is a cultural imperative of the elite class (usually self-defined as we don't cotton on to warlords and such these days) who then need to convince you that they are smarter/better/more worthy than the average Joe to sit in the seats of power.  They can cite lovely scholars, whip up graphs to show that more taxation leads to prosperity and back 'science' that then empowers them to tell you just how awful you are to lovely Mother Earth and that you really need to be punished for being healthy and wealthy.  That has worked as an ongoing meme for over a century, now, and what is on the horizon is what comes to any Nation that puts bureaucrats ahead of good sense and thinking that you can regulate your way to prosperity: special police, adherent political militants, political crimes, and repression of those who disagree that those who rule are, actually, unfit to rule.  Yup, bureaucrats, technocrats, police and military all set up by those in charge to make sure that they get what you make and you are enslaved because they are so much smarter than you... though far, far less competent in anything but grabbing power.

Flipping the side from the Ruling or Elite Class gets you Mr. Codevilla's Country Class.

This Country Class is not associated with 'populism', as 'populism' is a form of cultural political movement to address some 'evil' of society... in other words it is a ruse used to demonize some group/problem/ill by the Elite to get some popular fervor so as to pass laws and changes that invest more power to a centralized government, after which the fervor dies down as the laws 'changed things'.  Until, of course, the next big 'problem' arises that the new laws didn't address, which is the reason why we hear that the answer to failed regulations is: more regulation!  Perhaps what was regulated was not suitable to regulation in the first place?  How rare we ever hear that little question.  So the Country Class does not rely on nor descend from 'populism' or 'populist' movements, although members of it may join such things they do not consider such movements self-defining.  So just who is in the Country Class?

The description Mr. Codevilla gives is one that is very similar to others I've presented (bolding mine, throughout):

Describing America's country class is problematic because it is so heterogeneous. It has no privileged podiums, and speaks with many voices, often inharmonious. It shares above all the desire to be rid of rulers it regards inept and haughty. It defines itself practically in terms of reflexive reaction against the rulers' defining ideas and proclivities -- e.g., ever higher taxes and expanding government, subsidizing political favorites, social engineering, approval of abortion, etc. Many want to restore a way of life largely superseded. Demographically, the country class is the other side of the ruling class's coin: its most distinguishing characteristics are marriage, children, and religious practice. While the country class, like the ruling class, includes the professionally accomplished and the mediocre, geniuses and dolts, it is different because of its non-orientation to government and its members' yearning to rule themselves rather than be ruled by others.

Even when members of the country class happen to be government officials or officers of major corporations, their concerns are essentially private; in their view, government owes to its people equal treatment rather than action to correct what anyone perceives as imbalance or grievance. Hence they tend to oppose special treatment, whether for corporations or for social categories. Rather than gaming government regulations, they try to stay as far from them as possible. Thus the Supreme Court's 2005 decision in Kelo, which allows the private property of some to be taken by others with better connections to government, reminded the country class that government is not its friend.

It is a class that believes, then, that the best government is that which provides equal treatment under the law for all citizens and tries to not correct the wrongs that come about due to discrepancies in talent and capability.  When government attempts to do so it then moves from equality of treatment to seeking some form of 'justice' in outcome, thusly government becomes an institutionalized affliction for a certain group or class based on temporary problems.

What else is seen as defining?  Meritocracy, not bureaucracy:

Members of the country class who want to rise in their profession through sheer competence try at once to avoid the ruling class's rituals while guarding against infringing its prejudices. Averse to wheedling, they tend to think that exams should play a major role in getting or advancing in jobs, that records of performance -- including academic ones -- should be matters of public record, and that professional disputes should be settled by open argument. For such people, the Supreme Court's 2009 decision in Ricci, upholding the right of firefighters to be promoted according to the results of a professional exam, revived the hope that competence may sometimes still trump political connections.

It is, culturally, a standpoint that to do right one must do good and that doing good requires not only the want of doing good, which is supported by the Elite in all they do, but that one must understand what they are doing and do it well so that something is done right.  Doing something right by oneself to one's own liberty is upholding the greater rightness of society where we advance through capability, not adhering to Elitist word games and socialist equivalence.  When each is according to their ability and need, and the absolute minimal needs of survival in society are few, then applying one's ability falters to a lowest common denominator: whatever it takes to get by.  That is seen as a social inversion of doing right by doing good, and by creating a system in which there is no difference in mankind's efforts from beginning to end then mankind cannot advance nor self-improve as only base needs are met no matter what the effort.  Promotion by skill and merit requires application of skills and ability and working at them to hone them and improve them, and the reward is fruits of one's liberties in better pay, advancement and recognition of the worth of the skills and the character necessary to get them.  It takes character to build skills and society, and when character is removed through a grand equivalence of everyone, that all work is equal and therefore meaningless, then society falls backwards and humans no longer care about the maintenance of it through doing good work.  From that meritocracy and rewarding good work because it is good work is paramount not only to improve the character of others but to show that good, hard and skillful work is its own reward.

The country class actually believes that America's ways are superior to the rest of the world's, and regards most of mankind as less free, less prosperous, and less virtuous. Thus while it delights in croissants and thinks Toyota's factory methods are worth imitating, it dislikes the idea of adhering to "world standards." This class also takes part in the U.S. armed forces body and soul: nearly all the enlisted, non-commissioned officers and officers under flag rank belong to this class in every measurable way. Few vote for the Democratic Party. You do not doubt that you are amidst the country class rather than with the ruling class when the American flag passes by or "God Bless America" is sung after seven innings of baseball, and most people show reverence. The same people wince at the National Football League's plaintive renditions of the "Star Spangled Banner."

Unlike the ruling class, the country class does not share a single intellectual orthodoxy, set of tastes, or ideal lifestyle. Its different sectors draw their notions of human equality from different sources: Christians and Jews believe it is God's law. Libertarians assert it from Hobbesian and Darwinist bases. Many consider equality the foundation of Americanism. Others just hate snobs. Some parts of the country class now follow the stars and the music out of Nashville, Tennessee, and Branson, Missouri -- entertainment complexes larger than Hollywood's -- because since the 1970s most of Hollywood's products have appealed more to the mores of the ruling class and its underclass clients than to those of large percentages of Americans. The same goes for "popular music" and television. For some in the country class Christian radio and TV are the lodestone of sociopolitical taste, while the very secular Fox News serves the same purpose for others. While symphonies and opera houses around the country, as well as the stations that broadcast them, are firmly in the ruling class's hands, a considerable part of the country class appreciates these things for their own sake. By that very token, the country class's characteristic cultural venture -- the homeschool movement -- stresses the classics across the board in science, literature, music, and history even as the ruling class abandons them.

The country class supports the military absolutely as it is necessary for the security of a free Nation and to safeguard us all within the Nation State.  They normally do not vote lock-step Republican even when they do not vote Democratic, thus they are 'Independent' in word and deed.  For us to have a Nation together there is no political ideology that is seen as 'correct' and the greatest good of the Nation is done by its people, not its government.  Culturally the country class is very much a 'back to basics' view, so that which is good and has worked is cherished and the new only adopted when it has demonstrated its worth and value and does not contradict prior good teachings and work.  The art of reconciling the 'new' to culture is not done from government, business or marketers, but at home and amongst family and friends.  It is the individual that must find a good way to apply what is new under the sun and then ensure that it is understood and implemented to the benefit of all.  To do that the good, old ways must be taught, understood and cherished, which means that new 'teaching methods' that short-change history and accomplishment in understanding are rejected, often completely rejected, and parents take up Do It Yourself schooling.

What is this country class?  If you are an Elite this is an alien culture as they do not depend on the prism of race, class, politics, foreign affairs or any of the touchstones of the Elite to determine what needs to be done by individuals so as to guide society from the bottom up.  Elite schools, elite culture and elite politics are all, in every instance, top-down structures and authorities at the top are not questioned to hold them accountable for what they say or do.  Elitists must divide the rest of society and then push forward their notions of what is 'good' for a privileged sector so as to gain permanent power at the highest levels of government for a ruling class that becomes more and more archaic and brittle over time.  To an Elite member of the select class (or those attempting to cast themselves into it by shutting down their minds to thoughts of human liberty as individuals) the tools of the trade are:  attack, condemn, belittle and twist any fact to fit a pre-defined outlook that does not and cannot adjust to 'facts on the ground'.  If they could adjust to what is actually happening in the world without a prism applied to it, then the ideology would fall to pieces as it cannot withstand actual results that are not what is expected.  What is 'new' or 'good' to an Elitist is to remove power to the bureaucratic class and ruling class as these appointed members are best utilized in 'guiding' society via regulations in every aspect of life.  It is the concept of the perfectibility of man and it always, without fail, comes at a high cost of human liberty, life and blood wherever it is applied.

If the ideology of the Elite class is apparent because it is used as a tool to demean and belittle citizens at every turn so as to invest power in government, then the country class seeks to invert that so that civil discourse and coming to term with honest disagreements can lead to a better society that has little need of oversight or regulation from government at any level.  By keeping to the Framing and Founding documents of the Nation, and their outlooks that are invested in them, the country class feels little need to justify their concepts of a 'leave me alone' attitude towards government as it is a tried and true way to win a good life by one's hard work.  Even such as 'reformers' of government become distrusted as they attempt to add more apparatus into government to 'correct' its problems, but those only serve to increase the size, power and scope of government at each and every turn.  There is no 'good' that can be done by government, save their being less of it.  It is hard to get a spokesman for these beliefs, and yet a few (very few) have cropped up in our history after the Founding.  For this I need not travel back far, at all, in my own postings to come up with this document and these words from a past President of the United States:

It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful too often bend the acts of government to their selfish purposes. Distinctions in society will always exist under every just government. Equality of talents, of education, or of wealth can not be produced by human institutions. In the full enjoyment of the gifts of Heaven and the fruits of superior industry, economy, and virtue, every man is equally entitled to protection by law; but when the laws undertake to add to these natural and just advantages artificial distinctions, to grant titles, gratuities, and exclusive privileges, to make the rich richer and the potent more powerful, the humble members of society-the farmers, mechanics, and laborers-who have neither the time nor the means of securing like favors to themselves, have a right to complain of the injustice of their Government. There are no necessary evils in government. Its evils exist only in its abuses. If it would confine itself to equal protection, and, as Heaven does its rains, shower its favors alike on the high and the low, the rich and the poor, it would be an unqualified blessing. In the act before me there seems to be a wide and unnecessary departure from these just principles.

Nor is our Government to be maintained or our Union preserved by invasions of the rights and powers of the several States. In thus attempting to make our General Government strong we make it weak. Its true strength consists in leaving individuals and States as much as possible to themselves-in making itself felt, not in its power, but in its beneficence; not in its control, but in its protection; not in binding the States more closely to the center, but leaving each to move unobstructed in its proper orbit.

Experience should teach us wisdom. Most of the difficulties our Government now encounters and most of the dangers which impend over our Union have sprung from an abandonment of the legitimate objects of Government by our national legislation, and the adoption of such principles as are embodied in this act. Many of our rich men have not been content with equal protection and equal benefits, but have besought us to make them richer by act of Congress. By attempting to gratify their desires we have in the results of our legislation arrayed section against section, interest against interest, and man against man, in a fearful commotion which threatens to shake the foundations of our Union. It is time to pause in our career to review our principles, and if possible revive that devoted patriotism and spirit of compromise which distinguished the sages of the Revolution and the fathers of our Union. If we can not at once, in justice to interests vested under improvident legislation, make our Government what it ought to be, we can at least take a stand against all new grants of monopolies and exclusive privileges, against any prostitution of our Government to the advancement of the few at the expense of the many, and in favor of compromise and gradual reform in our code of laws and system of political economy.

This is a succinct enunciation of the outlook of Mr. Codevilla's country class and that President is condemned by the Elite class for the outcomes of actions he started but succinctly said he did not wish to start in the first place and warned of the consequences of not using reason and accommodation to work out mutual problems.  That is President Andrew Jackson and the quoted section, above, comes from his Bank Veto message of 1832 which was the last time a massive part of the federal government's work to 'guide' the economy was rejected and dismantled.  That lasted for 80 years until President Wilson signed the Federal Reserve into being.  As for the Elitist imputation that Andrew Jackson was a genocidal racist, they cannot square his actions of adopting a native child as his son nor his words and deeds to ensure that we had good relations with Indian tribes that did work with us and went so far as to castigate Congress for letting those accounts fall into disrepair.  Racial genocide cannot be squared with those words, deeds and the meanings behind them, and yet to divide the people from those outlooks and actions (good and bad) they misrepresent the bad, hype it up to a high degree and then seek to say that is the sum total of the man.  If that were the case he would not have taken the actions he did, give the warnings he did, attempt to avert the problems as best he could and then, only in failure, still try to find a good end to what was a very bad situation in which lives were being lost.

No matter how vilified the man is, his outlooks, rooted in the basics of human individualism as the source of strength for society and prosperity, continue to this day.  Mr. Codevilla is not the first to highlight these people, and another writer took up that task nearly a decade ago:

The new Jacksonianism is no longer rural and exclusively nativist. Frontier Jacksonianism may have taken the homesteading farmer and the log cabin as its emblems, but today’s Crabgrass Jacksonianism sees the homeowner on his modest suburban lawn as the hero of the American story. The Crabgrass Jacksonian may wear green on St. Patrick’s Day; he or she might go to a Catholic Church and never listen to country music (though, increasingly, he or she probably does); but the Crabgrass Jacksonian doesn’t just believe, she knows that she is as good an American as anybody else, that she is entitled to her rights from Church and State, that she pulls her own weight and expects others to do the same. That homeowner will be heard from: Ronald Reagan owed much of his popularity and success to his ability to connect with Jacksonian values. Ross Perot and Pat Buchanan in different ways have managed to tap into the power of the populist energy that Old Hickory rode into the White House. In both domestic and foreign policy, the twenty-first century will be profoundly influenced by the values and concerns of Jacksonian America.

[..]

Jacksonian America’s love affair with weapons is, of course, the despair of the rest of the country. Jacksonian culture values firearms, and the freedom to own and use them. The right to bear arms is a mark of civic and social equality, and knowing how to care for firearms is an important part of life. Jacksonians are armed for defense: of the home and person against robbers; against usurpations of the federal government; and of the United States against its enemies. In one war after another, Jacksonians have flocked to the colors. Independent and difficult to discipline, they have nevertheless demonstrated magnificent fighting qualities in every corner of the world. Jacksonian America views military service as a sacred duty. When Hamiltonians, Wilsonians and Jeffersonians dodged the draft in Vietnam or purchased exemptions and substitutes in earlier wars, Jacksonians soldiered on, if sometimes bitterly and resentfully. An honorable person is ready to kill or to die for family and flag.

[..]

The underlying cultural unity between African Americans and Anglo-Jacksonian America shaped the course and ensured the success of the modern civil rights movement. Martin Luther King and his followers exhibited exemplary personal courage, their rhetoric was deeply rooted in Protestant Christianity, and the rights they asked for were precisely those that Jacksonian America values most for itself. Further, they scrupulously avoided the violent tactics that would have triggered an unstoppable Jacksonian response.

Although cultures change slowly and many individuals lag behind, the bulk of American Jacksonian opinion has increasingly moved to recognize the right of code-honoring members of minority groups to receive the rights and protections due to members of the folk community. This new and, one hopes, growing feeling of respect and tolerance emphatically does not extend to those, minorities or not, who are not seen as code-honoring Americans. Those who violate or reject the code—criminals, irresponsible parents, drug addicts—have not benefited from the softening of the Jacksonian color line.

[..]

Jacksonians are instinctively democratic and populist. Hamiltonians mistrust democracy; Wilsonians don’t approve of the political rough and tumble. And while Jeffersonians support democracy in principle, they remain concerned that tyrannical majorities can overrule minority rights. Jacksonians believe that the political and moral instincts of the American people are sound and can be trusted, and that the simpler and more direct the process of government is, the better will be the results. In general, while the other schools welcome the representative character of our democracy, Jacksonians tend to see representative rather than direct institutions as necessary evils, and to believe that governments breed corruption and inefficiency the way picnics breed ants. Every administration will be corrupt; every Congress and legislature will be, to some extent, the plaything of lobbyists. Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it’s probably a fly. Jacksonians see corruption as human nature and, within certain ill-defined boundaries of reason and moderation, an inevitable by-product of government.

From Walter Russell Mead's The Jacksonian Tradition, put out in the fall 1999/2000 issue of the National Interest (archived here by Steven Den Beste).

From Mr. Codevilla's outlook of 'what if the country class took power in Congress and most Statehouses?' he clearly puts forward that the top-down methodology of the current ruling Elite class cannot serve as it is inherently Statist, not individual oriented:

Achieving the country class's inherently revolutionary objectives in a manner consistent with the Constitution and with its own diversity would require the Country Party to use legislation primarily as a tool to remove obstacles, to instruct, to reintroduce into American life ways and habits that had been cast aside. Passing national legislation is easier than getting people to take up the responsibilities of citizens, fathers, and entrepreneurs.

Reducing the taxes that most Americans resent requires eliminating the network of subsidies to millions of other Americans that these taxes finance, and eliminating the jobs of government employees who administer them. Eliminating that network is practical, if at all, if done simultaneously, both because subsidies are morally wrong and economically counterproductive, and because the country cannot afford the practice in general. The electorate is likely to cut off millions of government clients, high and low, only if its choice is between no economic privilege for anyone and ratifying government's role as the arbiter of all our fortunes. The same goes for government grants to and contracts with so-called nonprofit institutions or non-governmental organizations. The case against all arrangements by which the government favors some groups of citizens is easier to make than that against any such arrangement. Without too much fuss, a few obviously burdensome bureaucracies, like the Department of Education, can be eliminated, while money can be cut off to partisan enterprises such as the National Endowments and public broadcasting. That sort of thing is as necessary to the American body politic as a weight reduction program is essential to restoring the health of any human body degraded by obesity and lack of exercise. Yet shedding fat is the easy part. Restoring atrophied muscles is harder. Reenabling the body to do elementary tasks takes yet more concentration.

The grandparents of today's Americans (132 million in 1940) had opportunities to serve on 117,000 school boards. To exercise responsibilities comparable to their grandparents', today's 310 million Americans would have radically to decentralize the mere 15,000 districts into which public school children are now concentrated. They would have to take responsibility for curriculum and administration away from credentialed experts, and they would have to explain why they know better. This would involve a level of political articulation of the body politic far beyond voting in elections every two years.

If self-governance means anything, it means that those who exercise government power must depend on elections. The shorter the electoral leash, the likelier an official to have his chain yanked by voters, the more truly republican the government is. Yet to subject the modern administrative state's agencies to electoral control would require ordinary citizens to take an interest in any number of technical matters. Law can require environmental regulators or insurance commissioners, or judges or auditors to be elected. But only citizens' discernment and vigilance could make these officials good. Only citizens' understanding of and commitment to law can possibly reverse the patent disregard for the Constitution and statutes that has permeated American life. Unfortunately, it is easier for anyone who dislikes a court's or an official's unlawful act to counter it with another unlawful one than to draw all parties back to the foundation of truth.

The cutting of the size of government can be done either piecemeal, as Mr. Codevilla suggests, or via the concept of a 'Grand Bargain' like much of what the Progressives propose again and again.  A reduction in government 'Grand Bargain' attacks the root of the government's intervention in the lives of Americans and would address not just the wastrel spending at Education, Energy, Agriculture, the various 'arts', and so on, but would introduce the dismantling of the government welfare state in a way amenable to any American.

That can be done by, firstly, letting those know who currently draw on Social Security that they can continue to do so.  Second that those who paid into the system can then utilize their 'invested' funds to cut their own taxes.  Third FICA goes away as SSA becomes a direct funding for those left in it, and no new individuals will be let into it.  Fourth Medicare/Medicaid are added up, divided by two, apportioned to the States by population and phased out over 5 years.  SSA, Medicare and Medicaid now eat up all income of the federal government and all else, including interest on the National Debt is paid off in loans.  To working Americans this offers a double tax-cut that will last for some years as withholding from earnings plummets by 15-20%, which puts more money into the pockets of ordinary Americans, and by using SSA funds 'paid into' the system many people can live essentially tax free for some years.

That requires a 'cut to the bone' government which has already, at that point, agreed to remove the bulk of HHS and all of many Departments and Agencies.

The final piece, and really should be done, is to remove the 1911 Public Law setting the size of the House at 435 seats.  That is anti-representative in the extreme and needs to end.  For Americans to be represented in our diversity we need deep and diverse representation.  A Maximum House of 10,000 or may be unachievable (though very Constitutional) and the concept is that the problem of corruption is not the amount of money seeking to corrupt, but too few and easily corruptible.  If the Representative position is turned into a job with no real forward motion from it to higher office, then turn-over will be often for those seats as even minor demographic change impacts representation between each census.  That can be done by a majority in both Houses and either a Presidential signature or a veto over-ride.

The 'Grand Bargain' is that Americans, in a time of economic trouble, look to each other and to get the government out of doing ill to all of us, first, and then reducing the size, scope, power and cost of inefficient and incompetent government and making sure that each American is on a level playing field unfettered by heinous taxation.  The concept of being on a road to fiscal rectitude by paying down our debt with a goal of paying it off rang true after the Revolution as President Jackson made sure that he was the first President of a debt-free Nation.  That didn't last past his administration.  Now with the de-bunking of Keynesian economics and the bad examples set in Europe, the US can see its National budget like its household one and know that being in debt and facing bankruptcy is not at all good.  That can be made to stick as it is compelling and offers a ready exemplar of how you manage your own fiscal house.

It starts with pulling out the underpinnings for the massive federal government and its intervention into our economy (via the Federal Reserve, Fannie, Freddie, Ginnie and Sallie) plus ending the insane proposition of the ponzi scheme of SSA and the demographic black hole of federally subsidized health care.  It ends with increased representation, smaller government and much, much lower taxation aimed at setting us free of debt.

That cannot be done in one session of Congress.

Yet it must be done to retain liberty and freedom for all Americans rich and poor alike.

01 November 2008

So let me get this straight... Presidential Edition...

We have one candidate that enjoys being 'bi-partisan', which means he is willing to give away just about everything to get someone from 'the other side' to vote for a bill, thus demonstrating any lack of clear vision beyond certain minimal goals.  Namely being able to claim the 'bi-partisan' mantle.  Right?

 

The other candidate has a half-brother living on a buck a month in a shanty on the seashore in Kenya and a poor aunt here illegally and on welfare, and wants to spread the wealth around, so we can 'be our brother's keeper'.  Namely being his brother's keeper. Right?

 

Are you saying my choice for President is between a dim-wit and a slacker?

 

I'm voting for the moose hunter: at least she knows how to get a meal on the table.

 

Food wins *every time* in that sort of match-up.

14 May 2007

Looking at Brookings and the Iraq Index

My thanks to larwyn for pointing me to American Thinker article: The Missing Context in Media Reporting on Iraq By Gerd Schroeder. And from there on to the Brookings Institute and its Iraq Index. What follows is a basic look at the numbers, which I am *not* going to take forever and three days copying and pasting over.

The Brookings Institution has done a summary of its on-going findings in Iraq covering a broad array of issues and topics. This is, perhaps, one of the broadest looks at the entire Nation taken and is, thankfully, ongoing. Their latest (in pdf form) is here. Now instead of piecemeal and having to scramble around for sources, basic summary numbers can be seen and analyzed at a 'one stop shop' that even includes views on *other* studies and number sources. So you can see how they get to their numbers in comparison to other folks.

While they want to concentrate on 'the surge' numbers up top, the trends are the more telling things in this sort of report and give a deeper picture of how Iraq is changing good, bad and indifferent. One does not hawk just the good or just the bad, but takes a broader and contextual view of things and, when some deeper numbers appear to have out-of-context reports, then looking into those are necessary. Hopefully *that* can be kept to a minimum.

On the surge, on p. 9 is the summary of Civilian Deaths due to insurgent violence two months prior to it and the first two months of it, which saw a heavy escalation in explosions and such (mentioned later). The summary deaths are *down* and sharply overall, with only 'Suicide Bombings' (vest bombs and VBIEDs) rising. These are, of course, the more telegenic forms of attack, and garner the most visibility and are, generally, the easiest to carry off as the bomber is expendable.

Further on p. 9 we can see the estimated number of Iraqis killed per month (all sources) is down from a high in NOV 2006 by a bit more than 20% although just 10% up from FEB 2007.

Looking at US troop fatalities on p.11 one minor, but interesting artifact is that Operation Together Forward, the last attempt pre-surge to deal with Baghdad violence did work, but only for a limited time as it had no follow-on for sustainment of its stabilizing effects. When the troops left areas, the violence returned. This is part of the change of Counter-Insurgency work so as to leave useful forms of stabilization capability not only in military and police roles, but in civilian recovery and infrastructure roles.

That stabilization is taking place due to Iraqi Military and Police units stepping into that stabilization role. As seen on p.15 the initial deployment of limited troops and police by Iraqis met with a high death toll. What has happened is that the number of their forces have drastically increased and their competence and confidence have similarly increased as seen on p.32. That FEB-JUN 2005 period marked the first full deployment of police and military capability that had been slowly worked out during the previous two years. Finally amalgamating National Guard and Army duties and working out Border duties between police and military allowed for fewer and more well defined organizations to finally come into being. This was the period where so many decried the 'incompetence of the Iraqis' before they had actually gotten trained, equipped, and had their duties straightened out. Color me non-plussed at the time as that was evident by what was going on. By doing that these organizations have worked out plans for figuring out their necessary sizes to cover areas of operation and even had projected end-strength goals of their OWN to meet by the end of 2006.

Both the military and police organizations are now hard at work estimating what will be needed for their increased duties this year, and the military side is looking to stand up more air force capability, at least two more full divisions, possibly *another* armored division, and take on coastal and riverine duties. At this point in time there are more police officers than total American Armed Forces and almost as many Iraqi military forces as Total American Armed Forces and those are both projected to increase. US force size and composition has bounced up and down over time, pointing to difficulties in getting a long-term strategy in place, seeing its effects and adjusting as necessary. Many things have been tried, and a few of them have failed, but the learning curve is finally grabbing hold of events and an understanding of what it takes to actually get a successful plan made is getting into shape. Expect more set-backs and changes as there is an enemy out there.

On p. 33 we get to see what the enemy is doing: staging lots of attacks. Insurgent responses have been to MNF and Iraqi changes in plans, and reflect the ups and downs of that. The late 2005 Riverine Offensive to shift to Tal Afar is directly mirrored by increased insurgent attacks, while those drop very quickly once offensive. Similarly Operation Together Forward in JUN-OCT 2006 saw an uptick in violence and that was augmented by the first establishment of Sunni police from the Tribes in Anbar over that period. These two operations overlap and the build up late in 2006 is a demonstration of preparations by insurgents to address 'the surge'.

The political front on p. 10 shows the logjam in the Iraqi Parliament and the slow workings of it. The Oil Revenue Sharing plan and Repeal of some of the de-Ba'athification laws are still in the stages of work prior to voting. Better election laws and getting the summer provincial elections scheduled haven't made progress, but the elections previously held were ones scheduled by the US and MNF, and getting these things worked out in a parliament can take time. Similarly there is no law on disbanding the militias, although the Iraqi Army has been given the go-ahead by al-Maliki to just kill them, which is a good exercise of Prime Ministerial power to remove insurgents. On Sunni reforms: they have taken a back seat due to less than full Sunni participation on previous things.

The true bright spot is the Anbar Awakening council forming into Iraq Awakening which will be a Tribal/Provincial based movement starting in Anbar and the Tribes are now working in Diyala to get it spread there. This is the most significant progress done with the Sunni's to date as it will give them increased say on local and provincial matters and will be the FIRST party based on true Tribal and Provincial outlooks as a cooperative arrangement. Three long years of working with the Tribes in Anbar and other provinces may finally yield the very first of its kind Arab 'bottom up' party not seeking insurgency/jihad/tribal squabbles but working with other Tribes to give Iraq grass-roots National support. Outside of the Kurdish provinces, this is unknown.

From the Political Freedom Index on p. 33, a derived Index of multiple things like property rights and such, Iraq currently hits about where the Palestinian territories are, which are below Israel, Lebanon and Morocco, but above Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, Sudan, Yemen, Algeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Libya (in order, selected interesting Nations by the author).

From p. 34 we get a view on Press Freedom which puts Iraq pretty far down the list, behind Libya and Syria, but ahead of such notables as Vietnam, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, China, Cuba, and way ahead of North Korea. Further in Iraq there were 300 political parties listed for the 2005 elections, which knocks that of most other Nations and points to the highly factionalized atmosphere left over from the Saddam era. The Nation had been so heavily turned against itself that 500 separate parties could identify themselves as separate factions. Even Italy never got to that! Actually, this is a good thing to start with so many parties as it then allows for coalition and cooperation to form newer and broader based parties over time. This is necessary in the provinces and I would expect that a few parties that have little in the way of National presence will find actual voice in the provinces. Perhaps something less than 100 parties able to gain voice, say... but still a far more vibrant form of democracy than is seen in other parts of the world.

On the civil administration side for getting criminals behind bars, p. 43 now shows there to be a growing court system in Iraq, that is still only about 60% of need. It takes a long time to get judges trained in how to *be* a judge, and that initial surge of older lawyers and judges being re-educated must now slow as new judges are trained. This will take time and expect to hear about an 'overburdened court system' there. Just like in America!

Now for the brass tacks sort of stuff on p. 35. The economy of Iraq has changed in a huge way since the Saddam era and is *still* undergoing changes as it has not stood up fully yet. With the oil production chart we get a look at the hard and fast limits of the Soviet era technology that was additionally degraded by lack of maintenance and oversight for decades. Just enough to keep it running under Saddam, but not much else. The estimates I have seen prior to this put the potential for that infrastructure for oil at 2.3 million barrels per day, and the current production is at the 90% mark of that. Actually, that is sustainable, given the infrastructure. What is changing that is *new* equipment and replacement of older equipment slowly happening. The oil forecast is even brighter, which I went over in this post. Part of the fortuitous joining of Anbar tribes is the revision upwards of the oil reserves there, and that puts the Sunni Arabs in a much better position economically and in the Nation as a whole. That said the entire infrastructure left over from the Saddam era needs replacement from top to bottom and that is a 20 year outlook at the very least.

New production, however, backed by Western and Japanese interests will push the overall production up, over time, and as re-investment and maintenance take place those will also incrementally improve the situation. Saddam exported nearly ALL of the oil and kept very little for internal use for Iraqis, and the lack of refining infrastructure shows that. The early push to get everything working showed short-term promise, of course, and bought time, but the sustainability issues can be put off no longer. You cannot continue at peak utilization of old equipment like that and expect to have a long-term production and refining capability. Getting that maintenance schedule up and running for regular, annual maintenance is imperative and we are now starting to see some of the cyclicity. This means that the performance of the system will gradually improve, but that the time to start investing in future exploration and refining is *now*.

To gloss over p. 36 would be to miss that cyclicity and the variability of the oil market itself. Iraq will see month-to-month contractual changes in oil prices and getting a firm export amount will help to stabilize that and get longer term contracts in place. Japan is foremost in wanting to do that and are willing to bring some of the best expertise to the table to *get there*. After the Japan (as seen on p. 40) has the largest vested interest in Iraq and over the long haul their needs are far more important than ours and they are shelling out about HALF of the non-US Nation State aid to Iraq. Japan is only now starting to upsize its Navy and Armed Forces and looking to get a Constitutional change to allow Armed Forces to operate offensively overseas. This is a hard sell to Japan, but there is a basic recognition of stagnation there if supplies cannot be gotten into trustworthy hands. In a decade there may actually be a real military presence from Japan to do that, but it will be a long time coming. So their looking to invest *now* means a long term change over for them and their overall support of Iraq.

On to p. 37 we see the electricity situation, which the US Army Corps of Engineers place on a cycle where their last involvement would end around 2015. Let me point out that the pre-war Saddam era electrical production capability may have been a maximum if all the equipment worked. It didn't, as USACE pointed out, and much of it had been converted from natural gas to crude oil and has to be re-converted back to natural gas. Here, and again, this is mostly old Soviet and French technology, and it has suffered the similar neglect of the oil infrastructure. Production capabilities rarely meet optimum output and even more rarely maximum output, so putting a figure that by all accounts was the maximum output for the Saddam era and comparing it to daily sustainable output is a bit misleading. The existing plants are old to nearly obsolete and end of life-cycle so that entire gas/petroleum fired set of plants needs to be replaced. Any other sources would be handy, of course, but hydro-electric and distributed sources will only yield a fraction of what is necessary to run the Nation. That said they are still getting more daily electrical use than is Syria. A final problem is the purchase of televisions, computers, and all sorts of other electrical equipment by individuals and families in Iraq: that is making things difficult to handle, and the pre-war use basis was on minimal availability of such things. Getting to as much availability with a much higher load is a hard job to do, which is why more power generation ability is needed above and beyond just pre-war supplies.

Water and sewage projects have been a top concern, also, and of all places that show the differences between maximum and optimal use, it is here. The corrosive effects of water and sewage means that equipment will, literally, rust away if maintenance is not done regularly, and p. 45 shows that clearly. Much of the Saddam era capacity was targeted towards Baghdad and a few other places and the rest of the infrastructure rusted. Decrepit is not the word for it, upon arriving in Iraq, and the work of just getting pipes in to replace old pipes, get pumping stations working and make sure that the water and sewage lines were not damaged has eaten up a lot of time and budget. This is one of the areas that Iraqis are shifting into the fastest, after security, as the ability to get clean water to people and remove and treat sewage is vital. For all of that Saddam era treatment capacity, raw sewage was dumped straight into rivers. That alone points out the difference between theoretical capacity and actual capacity. In cities outside of Baghdad some facilities were just overgrown with weeds and such, so this is a very long-term infrastructure need of Iraq. Amazing that what has been restored or gotten to some places for the *first time ever* has allowed the revitalization of the agriculture sector and businesses to re-open.

Thus we come to p. 41 and GDP figures, which have been damned hard to come by! Iraq has gotten its act together on the economy, although much still has to be done as noted above. That traditional non-oil GDP percentage is sitting at 1/3 of the economy and desperately needs to change to at least 50%, in my opinion, over the next 5-7 years. That 30% inflation rate shows the problems with the economy, and the prior problems of estimating such in previous years. The p.42 chart on this shows it higher, but mostly to start re-aligning fuel prices with the world market and NOT subsidize it. Plus as seen on p.43, the differential between the two is extremely *high* and to not run into an Iranian situation with runaway internal use, the linking of such things as gasoline and diesel fuel to world prices is necessary. Of all things, Iraqis did not like that very much at all, but it is absolutely necessary to get fuel consumption under control, but then they went on a car buying spree as seen on p. 44. Restrictions to *new cars only* were put in place, but Iraq is still a smuggler's haven for cars, so the increased mpg of newer cars will not show up any time soon.

Now that there are real, internal organs of government able to look at this, we can see that reaching the goal of the IMF to 15% is a hard one. Early forecasts have not proven out due to over-optimism. With that said a stable manufacturing base for Iraq will bring that down quickly as capital investment and jobs start to give consumer confidence for longer-term expenditures. Here is where getting the security situation in hand helps in multiple ways: it allows for longer-term spending for business and industry to happen, spreads jobs and increases stability and confidence in the future. You can't get industrial production without infrastructure, and you can't get that without a secure environment that allows for long-term investment with expectations of payback on that investment.

From p. 41 is the Iraqi debt structure which has changed downwards from 2004. A lot of that is forgiveness on the part of many companies and countries on Saddam era debt. Re-structuring of re-payment schedules has also meant a lower payment amount and may stretch out some debt but allows for it to be manageable. That largest payoff, however, has been due to Private Creditors and is a huge plus mark for recognizing that private investment and reliability are necessary for future financial growth. Those that have been willing to re-structure debt via the Paris Club have also seen gains and losses, but that is a big plus for Iraq financially. That leaves those still holding Saddam era debt and the need to purchase equipment and supplies from various Nations that do not have a debt relief or forgiveness policy in place, and that has grown by 11% in terms of dollars and now is the largest source of debt for Iraq.

Finally there is the personal liberty and freedom side of Iraq, left unaddressed by most articles and pundits. Starting from p. 43 we can see that the use of telephones has been a major business in Iraq and here the ease of setting up cell phone towers and putting up a digital network has far outstripped the ancient land-line infrastructure. The previous estimates were based on using ONLY land lines and supplementing here and there with cell phones, but the companies of the region have all chipped in along with many others to start getting a new, wireless infrastructure in place for communications. It is quite possible that Iraq will be one of the first 'all wireless telephone' Nations with wired phones making up only a few percent of all telephones. That is the trend we are seeing today and laying communication lines only for long-haul telecomm is far cheaper than wiring out to individual homes and offices. This is just a reflection of a global trend that started a decade ago, and third-world and developing Nations will reap the most benefit of this.

Along with telephones we now see personal computers (p. 44) and cell phone enabled web-surfing as a major growth area for Iraq. Internal to the Nation is an entire set of web sites that we, in the English speaking world, have little insight into. This intra-Iraq communication venue is also changing viewpoints on how information flows and what good government means to Iraqis. There is also a utilization of the older media which has flourished under the removal of Saddam era restrictions. There were NO commercial television or radio stations and no independent newspapers or magazines under Saddam. Zero. That has changed immensely with 54 commercial TV stations, 114 radio stations and 268 independent newspapers and magazines (dailies, weeklies and monthlies). That is why so much in the way of electronic equipment is being sold: there are new ways to gain entertainment, news and other programs. Plus various political parties, social groups, and all sorts of other forms of journalism are seeing a massive upsurge in Iraq.

On unemployment, I never did trust those first figures from the standing up of the Central Bank, way back when, so these are a bit better, for all the fact they are estimates. This entire area is wholly depending upon the basic infrastructure stand-up so that factories and manufacturing capability can stand up in places like Ramadi and other towns and cities. That is *finally* happening this year and Ramadi looks to be a focal point for that, although other cities and towns have just as desperate a need for their workforce to actually *do something*. Ramadi is important as it is a lever point between Baghdad and Tal Afar: flex Ramadi and the entire length of Anbar will be effected. Investing in jobs and production capabilities means that employment spreads for subsidiary jobs and then outwards as more work needs to be done. Ramadi, alone, can employ just 200,000 or so folks at its factories and that does not include: transport, delivery, supply companies, waste management and so on. Standing up production at a factory is a huge boost to the economy and doing that at multiple places not only employs people there, but at the support industries for those factories. That cannot be done with a lawless insurgency happening, and these numbers should show diminishment as production comes on-line. Right now, seen on p. 56, Iraqis rate the economy as poor by a majority at 59%.

More children are getting educated, as seen on p. 45, with enrollment being far from universal, but increasing. This is a long-term vital area for the Iraqis to get the majority of people educated in even the basics, which is a prime concern for a Nation that used to pride itself in its educational capabilities.

Putting it all together puts us in p. 46 and the various polls taken in Iraq, and the outlook of Iraqis on their Nation. It is unsurprising that Security and Political/Military concerns eat up nearly 80% of all concerns for the population. Doing some break-outs on the basic which way is the Nation going, we see the Ethnic and Sectarian differences showing up. Sunni Arabs don't like being out of power and think things are going badly. Shia Arabs are about evenly split which is a huge improvement as if you could take something like this under Saddam the then/now contrast in that community would be startling to *get* to 50% on the good side. The Kurds are more highly optimistic and less pessimistic which is based on their long standing outlook as a culture and the ability to have some self-rule without Saddam. They have a better 'feel' for things with self-direction and only worry in the 'Quite Bad' area by 30%.

The largest split on p. 47 is a direct reflection of these changes: who controls Iraq? In the Shia Arab and Sunni Kurdish communities it is overwhelmingly in favor of Iraqis now controlling the Nation while the Sunni Arabs think that it is the US. That needs to change starting at the tribal basis and may do so with provincial elections and Sunni political parties actually gaining control of local governments by vote. Further on p. 47 is the basic resentment of the Coalition Forces in Iraq by the Arab communities, Sunni and Shia, and the overwhelming support for it by the Kurdish community.

Given these things looking at the basics of will your child be better off than you are question we see Better winning out over worse and by a 2:1 Nation-wide over the same. Again the Sunni Kurd and Shia Arab communities see better by 50% and 66%, which balances out the Sunni Arab 6%, and this is also a factor of lack of jobs, and such in Iraq and the lack of Sunni Arab buy-in after being in power for so long. This strange dichotomy of 'not wanting the Coalition Forces' there, but seeing a brighter future while they are there is one that has been vexing, overall, particularly with the Arab Shia community. All groups think there should be a 'timeline for withdrawal' as cited on p. 57, which explains some of the feeling for foreigners having to fight in your own Nation. I have yet to see a poll asking if a 'timeline for withdrawal' will help or hurt Iraq, because the implied is that it will help. This idea of resentment of foreign forces, no matter how necessary they are, is somewhat sustained by the p. 52 approval of attacks on US led forces, which are pretty near saturation for the Sunni Arab and has nearly 2/3 approval from the Shia Arab. The next question on the Iraqi confidence in their own forces to protect them is, I believe, some of the highest you will see for that anywhere in the Middle East outside of Israel and Turkey. Thus a further question would be: 'do you believe that Iraqi forces could handle the violence without foreign help?' Yes, there are questions and there are real questions, and often the implied of a question belies what is not being asked.

Again the internal breaks for who Approves (p. 48) of the Prime Minister's job handling is that of strongly majoritarian for Sunni Kurds and Shia Arab, and little from Sunni Arabs (broken out on p. 55). This is almost the same break-out for the National Assembly seen on p. 49 and the 'one year out' view.

Going to p. 48 and seeing the support for Unified Country, Regional States and Separate States, there has been a downward trend in Unified Country. This is, of course, an outgrowth of getting National politics rolling before Provincial politics and the first provincial elections and a few years with *that* will finally start to firm things up in this. Strange to say, but I do not think that provincial government will firm up support for a non-unified Nation. As soon as you can put a *real face* to local politics it goes from something unknown and possibly palatable, to something known and run by politicians. Another decade or so should demonstrate full trends here, and the 5-year outlook on p. 53 supports a Unified State. Also the view on corruption being a major problem in Iraqi politics is overwhelming with 43% citing 'a lot' and 22% citing 'some' (p. 56).

A fun statistic is the internal view on the Civil War question of seeing if one is going on now. This breaks down along the three lines, and I think a basic idea is as follows:

Sunni Arabs - "Of course there is, the Shia's need *someone* to rule them."
Shia Arabs - "What? No Civil War... a bit of payback for what was done to us..."
Kurds - "Arabs are *always* finding a reason to fight."
Probably very un-PC of me to see it that way! On p. 50 is about the only misleading graph I've seen at this point, and that is one that lumps the Sunnis together for a 'Sectarian violence' improving question. This does not show the problems of regions and the opinion of the Kurds, which the Irbil line clearly shows. This one is a story not told in the light of the way previous questions were broken out and obfuscates complexity by trying to make pure Sectarian views the only ones, while regional outlook is also a prime factor.

For all the conflict going on, however, on p. 50 the question of 'Has anyone you known moved away the last four years due to security concerns, the overwhelming majority at 72% Nationally is known. Here, I would expect any breakout to show that Sunni Arab population has fled, but that the Kurds, in particular would say almost no one has moved.

Startlingly on p. 51, the majority of ALL murders and kidnappings are in Baghdad. Basically the Kurds are secure, the Shia areas more or less secure and the Sunni areas likewise. Yes, the violence in Baghdad has been bad and very much so. Most of the rest of the Nation has seen only sporadic violence in comparison. That said 3/4 of Iraqis rate the security situation poor in Iraq overall.

The Right/Wrong direction for the Nation graph is interesting in that it hits a low point for 'Right Direction' in Spring 2006 just after the Riverine campaign and then heads steadily upwards again. The 'Wrong Direction' has been sharply up and down since Fall of 2005 and it is hard to see any trend there, save that of Sunni Arab resentment due to the clearing of the Riverine area and the concentration of violence in Anbar. It will be interesting to see if that reverses down again, and what the 'Right Direction' will do with that. However there is one thing that *everyone* agrees upon in Iraq, and that is on p. 53: A strong government that will get rid of Militias. The Shia Arab have the *lowest* percentage on that at 65%, the Kurds at 82% and the Sunnis at 100%! Now if they would only stop *joining them*.

The overall Ethnic and Religious break-out of Iraq still puts forward the main views of the Nation: Shia Arabs are generally optimistic and glad to be free of Saddam, the Kurds are quite optimistic of the future and the Sunni Arabs are still resentful, as of the dates of those polls regarding such, and see themselves being unfairly targeted and have problems dealing with a future in which they are not in control. Resentment of foreign forces is across the board and the support for the Iraqi forces is surprisingly high, and much higher than most other Middle Eastern States that use those forces for internal repression. That is, actually, a very healthy sign of Iraqis willingness to support their Nation so that they can learn to take care of themselves, and it is their political class that has to look towards tempering that emotional need with the hard reality of building an Army and a society which is self-sustaining, of which neither will happen quickly nor easily.

Getting the economy actually started is the next major step in Iraq. Infrastructure, though only at about half-capability, is enough to sustain actual manufacturing at some locations and start the employment and jobs cycle going. The banking infrastructure still needs work, but the view of getting that *right* before allowing foreign banks in is one that is not only realistic but necessary: it doesn't help to open up banks that will have drawing accounts for terrorists or for Saddam's stolen funds. An accountable system of banking and funds that support the local economy and encourages investment in it, is something that is necessary as part of the economic stand-up.

And the economy requires getting things secured to the point where Iraqis trust their own forces to handle things on their own. From the internal views that have been seen Iraq is about half-way to having a properly sized Army and Security Forces sector (National and Local Police). Just as Ramadi will flex the economy, Baghdad will flex the entire social structure of the Nation, and ridding it of violence and actually providing jobs to work at is necessary. The untold secret of the current 'surge' operations is that the Iraqi side of things is seeing a heavy influx of Kurdish units to handle Baghdad. No one wants to talk of *that* particularly the Left as it shatters the meme that the Kurds will not help the Arabs inside Iraq. It is that meme that has dragged down such analyses from multiple sources and finally needs to be put at rest once and for all. Luckily it is not just the Kurds and the fact that Arabs and Kurds can work together on this is perhaps the brightest sign from all of this.

There is a long way to go on clearing out the insurgency as it scrambles from Anbar to Diyala and now faces the Anbar Salvation folks working with the Tribes in Diyala to set up the same. Militias from Baghdad have either headed north, into Diyala, or east towards Basra where they seek some shelter due to the militias there. But what is securing Baghdad and Anbar is Iraqis with Coalition forces and the Reconstruction Teams, along with the interim team members. Changing tactics and outlook and encouraging cooperation and self-governance has shown major and positive results in places even Saddam could not govern well, if at all, with all the blood on his hands.

That is, apparently, a lesson that Americans forget: it is harder to build than to destroy, especially in the face of those that only destroy.