Showing posts with label federal government. Show all posts
Showing posts with label federal government. Show all posts

01 August 2013

Passively implicit

The following is a cross-post from The Jacksonian Party.

When looking at the US Constitution I take a view of it as a structuralist, that is to say that the form of government is given as a structure that has a number of interlocking parts that are defined, limited and created to serve a purpose.  Structural analysis means that you take the words as they are presented in the context of the English language.  I laid this out in Structural analysis of Amendment II, and that rests on the work that I looked at earlier by Nicholas Rosencranz who laid out how the sentence structure of the English language creates the structure of government in the Subjects and Objects of the Constitution.  The lineage of the US Constitution starts with agreements outlined in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle and King Alfred all the way through to Bill of Rights put in place with James II, which I went over in Roots of constitutional government.  For this article I'm going to be building off my article on Taxation via sales.

Taxation was part of the trigger for the US Revolution and it is understood that the Founders and Framers both had a view that taxation is a necessary evil to run the organ of society known as government.  As a necessary evil it must be limited so that it does not over stress the body which is society that requires the functioning of government to do the few and necessary things to allow for the individuals to be free.  With that said taxation takes many forms and the US Congress gets some particular types taxation in Art I, Sec 8, in part:

Section. 8.

The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;

If Congress was getting the complete taxation power with this clause then there would be no need to put in Duties, Imposts and Excises, now, would there?  In fact it took an Amendment for Congress to get the income tax, and even that Amendment has been misused as it nowhere indicates that Congress may levy different taxes on different income levels.  The Progressive Income Tax requires not just the Income Tax part, but a specific exemption of the Privileges and Immunities clause and Amendment V and Due Process of Law which is to be applied equally to all citizens.  Be that as it may, later in Sec 8 is a clause that indicates what the scope of the Taxation power actually is:

To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes;

Duties, Imposts and Excises are generally taxes aimed at the National level and at international trade.  Thus the regulatory or regularizing power of Congress writing law in support of Treaties or, in cases where there are no trade treaties, setting the Nation's tax policy towards importation of goods to sustain trade, thus are complementary to the Duties, Imposts and Excises previously mentioned.  That is to say there is an explicit venue given for the Taxation power that is complete for Congress for international trade modified by Treaties.  Thus even where it is a complete power it is one that has limitations via Treaty.

Next is Sec 9 where one tax power is restricted and then modified by Amendment:

No Capitation, or other direct, Tax shall be laid, unless in Proportion to the Census or enumeration herein before directed to be taken.

This is the first outright restriction to the Taxation power and now limiting it.  Do note that this is a passive clause and that it does not mention Congress nor does it mention any other branch or any other government.  Thus this applies to all governments and all branches of all governments in the United States.  Remember in Sec 8 there is the language 'The Congress shall have...' is an explicit grant of power and as all of Sec 8 is a single sentence with many semi-colons, all of that is covered under that.  There is no need to repeat it per line as the separate grants are broken up for clarity's sake, for readability, and to let someone catch their breath if they had to read it as a single sentence.

In Section 9 each clause is a single, stand-alone sentence, complete in and of itself.  These sentences are not started by explicit and active restrictions upon, say, Congress, but are passive and general in nature.  The Framers were more than capable of starting a sentence 'Congress shall make no law...' but these clauses do not start with that beginning.  As the Constitution is about the organization of the United States and what the role of the States shall be, when States require separate coverage they are mentioned, as in Sec 10, and I'm coming back to Sec 9, but here is the language on Taxation in 10:

No State shall, without the Consent of the Congress, lay any Imposts or Duties on Imports or Exports, except what may be absolutely necessary for executing it's inspection Laws: and the net Produce of all Duties and Imposts, laid by any State on Imports or Exports, shall be for the Use of the Treasury of the United States; and all such Laws shall be subject to the Revision and Controul of the Congress.

With 'No State shall...' we are given a definitive subject and then a set of Objects with modifiers.  It is this language that is absent in Sec 9 and without an actual Subject that is defined then the generalized Subject is being addressed to all levels of all governments.

Imposts and Duties on Imports or Exports is a linking of topics in Sec 10 and due to that linkage these powers are addressed to those objects.  That explicit language and linkage then gives proper definition to the prior Congressional power on Imposts and Duties: Imports and Exports.  If a State wants a special exemption it must go to Congress and that only for the necessary execution of inspection laws.  By making those funds go to the US Treasury this is seen as a federal power granted to Congress and is for Imports and Exports.

Now back in Sec 9 there is the final clause and one that clearly de-limits powers and it is this:

No Tax or Duty shall be laid on Articles exported from any State.

As with the prior prohibition this one is given a passive voice and does not state 'Congress shall make no law...' nor does it start 'No State shall...' but, instead, addresses Taxation as a whole.  This is a restriction on the Taxation power, itself.  By not having either Congress or the States as the subject, as with the previous passive and standalone clause, this clause then addresses all governments in the United States.

This is an implicit restriction on taxation of goods moved from State to State on goods exported from one State to another State.  No government may do this in the United States.

Now lets flip this around into a different arena and ask: what is the form of this restriction on an international scale?

The States of the United States are seen as Sovereign entities and actually have an escape hatch from the US Constitution embedded within it in Sec 10:

No State shall, without the Consent of Congress, lay any Duty of Tonnage, keep Troops, or Ships of War in time of Peace, enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State, or with a foreign Power, or engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay.

This language also shows up later in the Constitution in Art IV:

Section. 4.

The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republican Form of Government, and shall protect each of them against Invasion; and on Application of the Legislature, or of the Executive (when the Legislature cannot be convened), against domestic Violence.

In Art IV, Sec 4 the guarantee of a Republican Form of Government is to the States, which are signatories to the US Constitution after ratification by the people of that State.  The protections against having this subverted are to protect the States against Invasion and domestic Violence.  In Art I, Sec 10 there are a set of powers that a State recovers if the United States does not support this and it is the ones they agree to set aside outside of these specific causes.  When you examine that list you get the conception of the broad headings that the States recover in full upon invasion, imminent threat of Danger or having their government threatened with being overturned via non-Republican means are broad and sweeping.  These powers are what we call the Foreign Policy power and the Military power, not just the defensive Militia power which is due to all men, but the assertive and external Military power.  Also it regains all the taxation powers and the powers to build new military fortifications and equipment to guard itself.

In International Affairs a State with the full Foreign Policy, Military and Taxation power is known as an independent Nation State: a country.

Thus the States must have these powers to set aside in this agreement known as the US Constitution, as you cannot recover what you did not have to start with.  That is simple logic.

Taking the US Constitution as a TREATY DOCUMENT and examining what the form of Taxation is we then come to a conclusion of the limitation on the Taxation power that is startling due to the understanding that is underlying it.  It is the scope and form of Treaty that many who have argued on the necessity of unburdened trade have used at the International scale and has its full form seen with an organizations of States that agree to this view so as to have a coherent Nation amongst them.

What is a trade agreement that unburdens trade amongst equals and limits the power of an oversight group so that it may not burden such trade via direct taxation?

What is a trade agreement that sets up a system whereby sellers in one State that is signatory to the Treaty cannot have its goods or services taxed by a recipient State and its citizens?

What is the form of trade agreement that abolishes duties, imposts and excises save for necessary inspection and then those funds applied only to those inspections to ensure that agreed-upon legal trade is all that is going on between States?

Why this does have a modern term, doesn't it?

This is known as a FREE TRADE AGREEMENT.

Right there, in the US Constitution, powerfully stated by not being explicit, not a direct power grant, but by restricting all the governments involved, including the agreed-upon oversight body.  It is one of the most subtle and yet powerful statements on the positive value of trade between States to knit a Union together and to allow that free men when trading with other free men in States that all fall under the Treaty shall have NO TAXATION applied to that direct sale from individual to individual, State to State.

And that means no 'Value Added Tax', 'Sales Tax' or any other thing not directly related to quantity, amount or hazard of a given good.  Taxation for tonnage is also removed unless it has safety or verification inspections involved.  The federal government can tax per gallon, per carton of cigarettes, or by any other gross weight and measure so long as it involves upkeep of infrastructure due to those particular items in the way of hazard or safety.

What no government can do is tax by VALUE of the trade involved.

Thus a nickel per gallon on tax is there without regard to the actual cost per galloon.  It is there if it is a penny per gallon and it is there if it is ten thousand dollars per gallon: the quantity is what matters, not the value.  And do note that is for interstate sales, only, so that in-State sales remain the realm of the State government.

Governments will always seek new sources of revenue and tax the hell out of anything they can get their hands on and yet still be unable to balance their budgets.

A free people have an 'out' from onerous taxation: our fellow citizens in the other States under this Free Trade Agreement embedded in the US Constitution.  As a remedy to overburdening of taxes this is one of the most sublime resorts that the ordinary citizen has to escape taxes, become closer with his fellow citizens and support the Union between the States.

Because that is the realm of the Preamble of the US Constitution and note who is invoking it and what we promise to do:

We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

07 March 2013

Sen. Paul's filibuster and the question

Congratulations to Sen. Rand Paul for utilizing the filibuster on a question that he has been asking for nearly a month and asked of the head of DoJ, Eric Holder, and the White House during that period: in their opinion does the President have the power to order a drone attack against an American on American soil without due process of law procedures?

This is not the question: can the President order someone stopped when they are in the process of attacking the United States?  That is an in-process question where someone is armed, known, dangerous, affiliated with an organization that has already attacked the United States or has otherwise made clear their intention to attack the United States on their own or in affiliation with others.

That, incidentally, is called Treason and has its own due process procedure set by the US Constitution.

And a single penalty after trial and being found guilty of same.

The White House, Eric Holder and Mr. Brennan, the man who's nomination for head of CIA has caused all of this to come out, have all given a big, hearty waffle on this question.  Do note that if this was the previous Administration that the Left, the MFM and all sorts of others would be denouncing that President and calling attention to this question.  Their complicity in partisan, tyrannical ends is demonstrated by their lack of doing anything.  Save Code Pink and the ACLU, I will grant those organizations and any others that have stood up to join with Sen. Paul and his fellow Senators that assisted on this that they have followed on an ethical and moral line of reasoning.  No matter how much you may not like what some of these organizations do, and how insane their motivations may be at times, they are consistent in their insanity.

As for me the question should be self-evident: no, the President does not have that power nor authority to go outside due process.  Going after those actually wielding weapons, planting bombs or hacking into the infrastructure of, say, a major sewage system to put its contents into the drinking water of millions of people, those people should be stopped with whatever force is necessary short of an indiscriminant missile attack.  Anything that has a warhead measured in pounds of explosives, launched from any platform including a shoulder fired weapon from an individual, is a bit much to go after an individual who is not in a tank, not in an APC, not in a hijacked aircraft about to hit a building or other infrastructure component, or in a known and designated bunker or other fortified area.  The potential for the innocent getting hurt or killed in a non-war zone is far too high to be using explosives outside of a testing range  or other designated safe facility utilized for the training of same.

And as to the question of being on a 'kill list', I have addressed that previously as something that has a lack of stated doctrine and procedure with legal framework attached to it.  The Congress can and should play a part in this using their Article I, Section 8 powers under the Letters language as that is the power that is granted to Congress to address and deal with the Private Enemies of the United States and the language allowing Congress the power to set the means by which the military forces of the US operate.  This would allow Congress to name specific groups that have attacked the United States as Private Enemies of the Nation, and that joining such a group is treasonous as it is one that has waged Private War on the US as defined in the Law of Nations.  Further it could tell the President that individuals of that organization, foreign and domestic, are to be publicly put on a list of those individuals to be brought in by any means necessary, apprehended when feasible overseas, and that these individuals are admonished to turn themselves in to any US Embassy or any US military base or organization for proper tribunal or trial.  Congress could place the general activities of 'terrorism' as those of 'piracy' and put forward, via legislation, that all such individuals are engaged in Piracy when they attack the US on their own and not as part of a Nation.  This would actually allow the removal of the cumbersome terrorist statutes and embrace the pre-existing framework of Piracy trials which are also a known part of the international framework of understanding between Nations.

These things would then set a basis for doctrine of apprehension for the Executive Branch and also define when private individuals who are actively part of an organization attacking the US may be attacked, and that other individuals or organizations, public or private, that are aiding and abetting such hostile groups or individuals are to be put on a separate list so that proper legal proceedings can go forward to freeze their assets whenever possible and seize them once proper legal recognition and status is done via trial.

Thus I applaud Sen. Rand Paul's filibuster.

I also humbly suggest that he start legislation to finally get a hard and fast set of legal understandings put forward to properly define and scope out just what a President can and cannot do with drones and other unarmed vehicles in the pursuit of 'terror' groups overseas.  Congressional input and designation of groups is necessary, and the President will then have to ask Congress to add or remove organizations to such a list as this is a WAR POWER of the Congress at work.  That would then set a methodology that is public and well understood on who is on such a list, and what recourse they have to turn themselves in for proper legal procedures be they citizens or foreigners, at home or abroad.  This would then involve all three branches of government and could even set up an initial tribunal system to find out just who is and is not a 'combatant', with the military running such under the Geneva Conventions and defining that 'terrorism' falls under the 'Saboteurs and Espionage' trials for military affairs.  Those trials are well known and understood, and have a single outcome when guilty, and it is immediate and summary in nature.  That would also clear out Gitmo and allow the US to shut it down once the last of the detainees are processed.

These things are things that can be done by a Senator or Representative and work with others to put legislation forward and move it through Congress.

That is how the entire thing is supposed to work.

Best to remind everyone of that while there is still time.

14 June 2011

The benefits of commentary

For me the benefit of restricting myself to commentary to other sites is that it helps to distill important ideas that I would normally present in a longer, more complex, blog post.

No one reads those beyond the few and dedicated that basically got the idea some years ago.

That is why I pluck my commentary from other sites and repost those with some added commentary, like what you are reading now, to help shine a light on the basic concept.

Thus for the idea of what the problem is with the federal government, can often be stated in someone else's stream of thought even if they aren't addressing the problem, directly.  Thusly reading through the latest page on Hot Air about the so-called 'debates' in the Republican Party hosted by CNN (which went all high-techy and I dutifully ignored as debates are turning into 'gotcha' forums), I ran across a comment that hosted the nub of the problem but was directed to finding an experienced 'manager' for the government.  My point is as follows, with warts and all and I'll try to put down my formatting problems as-is, also, for your copious amusement:

[..]Today the United States federal government is the world’s largest enterprise. Only China, Japan, and India have total GDPs larger than our federal budget. [..]

Adjoran on June 14, 2011 at 3:31 AM

Sorry to do a pull-out from a longer paragraph, but you have stated the problem to a T with that.

The federal government should in no way, shape or form be that large outside of a global war, and then it should only be that large as long as hostilities are going on and then fall back to a tiny size thereafter.

It shouldn’t require a very good or excellent executive to manage the thing. And we should be able to survive electing a dipstick with no experience by that said dipstick not being able to get his or her hands on so much cash and power. The size is the thing that is dangerous, not the experience, or lack thereof, of a candidate or official.

When we have a federal government large enough so that such in-depth experience matters, then we are in a bind as any single experienced mistake will destroy us. The idea now is to get someone who will reduce the size, scope and power of the government and get it out of our lives so we can survive mediocrity. Because, lets face it, most of our elected officials are reflective of the body politic and it is mediocre at best and awful for its norm.

Stop looking for geniuses and start looking at the problem.

ajacksonian on June 14, 2011 at 7:35 AM

Close enough, Hot Air does something funky with a line before blockquotes to differentiate them.

The problem is that those who are partisans are looking for geniuses.

The problem is the size, scope and power of government which now consumes a huge amount of our economy.

I'm looking for someone to put government back in its place as something that can and should be outside of our daily lives save at the most local of levels.

I'm looking for a dedicated problem-solver for reducing the problem of the huge size of government, not an awesome manager of an authoritarian State, which means I'm not a Republican.

I'm a Jacksonian.

See how that works?

25 October 2009

Emergency Government

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.” -H. L. Mencken (from Ralph Benko, from an addendum to a Mark Tapscott story at the Washington Examiner, found via Instapundit)

Yes we have yet another emergency, this the Swine Flu which was predicted months ago and the President promised that there would be enough vaccine for everyone, and from the folks who brought you:

"You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before." - Rahm Emanuel

That was when the entire economy was going to go poof overnight and we needed, desperately needed, the stimulus package to do something!  Or perhaps it was the big, bad banks who were following federal regulations on lending and putting money out to borrowers who couldn't pay it back in housing and other areas that needed, oh, so needed, the TARP and rescue package because they were too big to fail! The auto companies were going down and they would be forced to go bankrupt and re-organize which would be awful because that would mean massive job loss and we just had to do something! And we have to have more lending in the housing market because that will collapse and the entire Nation will go to wrack and ruin , so we have to do something!  And the stimulus has pushed unemployment far above the expectations of doing nothing that we now need, desperately need, a second stimulus package, because we just can't sit by and do nothing!

Meanwhile, those Nations that didn't go on a spending binge are out of their recessions, worried that the US will pull down the rest of the world market as we flush our economy down the drain with emergency spending, and wondering just why the hell we can't stop doing things and let the recovery take over.  But those are the so very wise European governments that we are supposed to take our wisdom from... say, just why can't we follow their leads and let the economy recover and not try to tax and spend ourselves to oblivion and take much of the rest of the world economy with us?  For all the grousing, moaning and complaining about how much of the world's resources the US uses, it is also a fact that we are a quarter of the world's economy, produce much more per capita than anyone else around, and the world depends on us to be sober in our spending habits.

Instead we have gotten a massive hit to our economy, massive job loss, a disorganized private sector because government now sees fit to invalidate contracts on whim, and tax money flowing out in a tidal wave that will cause massive structural debt, increased inflation, devalue the dollar, and bring instability to all those countries holding securities in the US who are seeing their investment in our way of life go poof!

Now here's the question on structural debt via Non-Performing Loans (NPLs).

I've heard the US is heading north on NPLs, which are loans 90 days past due and unlikely to ever be paid off.  A large part of that is due to the new home market, which ripples through the economy to durable goods and consumer sectors.  We brought that on ourselves by encouraging those who are economically marginal to actually get federally pushed loans via lenders and the FHA then packaged those up (along with Freddie and Fannie) and put the 'US Govt Safe' seal of approval on them, when the loans, themselves, were anything but safe.  Now I'm going to start stealing some data from one of my previous articles to look at the NPL problems that have happened elsewhere:

NPL are Loans that are in default or close to being in default. And this International Journalists' Network article by Anya Schiffrin on the large role of NPLs in banking crises, points out that once a Nation gets over 9% NPL on all outstanding loans, it is starting to look at real trouble.

The role of NPLs in a Nation's economic structure cannot be over stated.  At the time of writing that article, the US NPL was less than 2% with the majority of that being in consumer debt, not institutional or business debt, and the majority of that consumer debt in the NPL status was in credit cards.

Now a note of update on my article via a Business Insider 23 OCT 2009 article by Joe Weisenthal who references this Financial Times article by Arthur Kroeber on 06 OCT 2009:

So just how big is China’s NPL time-bomb? That is largely a function of economic growth rates.

Average annual nominal GDP growth of 11 per cent, 9 per cent and 7 per cent over the next decade would generate net fiscal NPL costs of 6 per cent, 7.2 per cent and 8.7 per cent of GDP respectively in 2019 – substantial, but not catastrophic.

There is no necessary reason why existing NPLs, even including bad loans arising from the 2009-2010 monetary stimulus, should threaten the viability of the system. In short, the calculated bet of letting NPLs shrivel through time and growth can safely be placed one more time.

But this bet absolutely cannot be placed a third time.

The above scenarios only work if the financial system generates no net new NPLs in 2011-2019 beyond the banks’ own ability to provision and write down.

China has been playing games with its debt by shuffling it around to different vehicles, and has done so since the 1990's.  Twice China has shuffled its debt to different vehicles, and now the money is expecting to be paid out.  China has a major problem: there is a global recession and many of its hardest cash holdings are in the US real estate market, via investing in Freddie and Fannie.  The crony capitalist system, a form of national socialism, has allowed those in favor with the regime to build businesses, default on those loans when the businesses collapse and have that passed into debt vehicles approved of by the government.  Any similarity to the passing on of bad housing debt via federally approved vehicles is purely intentional.

Plus for all the phenomenal growth rate China reports, the conservative estimate of having 30% of their economy underwritten by these loan vehicles, in other words 60% of their GDP depending on NPL loan swaps to different vehicles, is conservative because China under-reports the NPLs and over-estimates its growth.  Market based estimates go up to 50% of the economy underwritten by NPL loan vehicles picking up the temporary tab for the bills of past failures.  Those bills are coming due, US housing investments are tanking and China is in a bind.

So how are things going here?  Well the FDIC Select Peer Group and Report Date for 30 JUN 2009 sees some disturbing trends on 06 and 06A:

Real Estate Loans in the non-accrual and 90+ days past due is up to 2.31% from 1.29% in 2008.

Commercial real estate is up to 0.11% in the same category, up from 0.01% in 2008.

Construction and land development up to 5.23% from 2.16% in 2008.

1-4 family homes 4.10% up from 1.89% in 2008.

Other construction and land development 5.45% up from 1.95% in 2008.

The longer trends on these are going from EOY to mid-Year cycle so that there is only 6 months between 2007 and 2008, but still interesting to note them (06/30/2009, 06/30/2008, 12/31/2007, 12/31/2006), again all for the NPL (non-accrual plus 90+ days past due):

Real Estate  2.31%  1.29%  1.76%  0.90%  0.57%

Commercial 0.11%  0.01%  0.03%  0.00%  N/A

Const.         5.23%  2.16%  3.57%  1.05%  0.24%

1-4 Family    4.10%  1.89%  3.05%  1.34%  N/A

Other           5.45%  1.95%  3.44%  1.18%  N/A

We are just now getting the repercussions of the tanking of the real estate market in the NPL arena for housing.  Construction can be seen as a leading indicator as it feels the pinch first when housing starts are put on hold or canceled, thus causing a rippling into that part of the industry.  The last two interesting, indicating a cyclic market, but one that is increasing in its NPL area.  All of this while the mortgage market is only slowly seeing its rates go up for the same category:

Non-Farm Mort/Residential  1.66%  0.81%  1.20%  0.61%

The category I'm not showing is the 30-89 days past due, which shows that some of the influence is from those loans, no doubt, slipping into the other categories or just having a delinquent set of payees who can get payments in but late on a continual basis.  On 06A we get the final Gross line item for all loans and leases for the 06 section, and below that, in the totals, we get the full percent of all loans and leases past due including non-accrual for the entire banking industry that is overseen by the FDIC:

%Total P/D LN/LS    3.78%  2.45%  3.30%  2.20%  1.17%

This is a pretty good proxy stand-in for National NPL status, and the trendline from EOY 2006 to MID 2009 is up in all categories thus reflected in the total which is up by over double.  Of particular note is that the 'housing crisis' starting by EOY 2007 had lessened, somewhat, by MID-2008, and this was reflected in all P/D loans in all categories.  Thus the MID 2008 to MID 2009 jump is due to the intervening months as the market had been digesting the problems by EOY 2007.  The multiple 'crises' times between those two reporting periods changed what had been an up and down, choppy trendline (in other words still increasing but with rapid market changes) to one that now flattens out to increasing at a much higher rate.  If all the 'necessary' things to 'stabilize' the market had, indeed, actually stabilized the market, each of these trends would have flattened with minimal increase from the previous year.  Even with the undigested loans in the market, those were being addressed by changing in lending practices and crunching those loans out of the system.  This did cause some massive losses in big banks and all the money poured into those should have stabilized the market, but didn't do that.

So we are left at MID 2009 with NPLs going up towards 4%.

This is before all the 'stimulus' money gets into the pipeline, which is causing headaches on loans and lending as the projects that are being done do not address the structural problems of the market.

Additionally the Community Re-investment Act is getting re-upped, which is a major cause of the increasing home prices over time, due to easy money lending practices to those who can't afford such loans.  That is causing structural debt problems in the market that need more than just cash infusion in them, and need a change in the regulations to allow normal repayment expectations to hold sway and get the federal 'help' in lending out of the system.  Additionally the banks should be the ones to judge the ability of those credit vehicles that gather up such losses and put them on the market.  As both Democrats and Republicans have voted to approve past revisions of the CRA to achieve these policies, there is no 'party' to whine about as being at fault: they are both idiots in this area.

Finally some of the instability is reflected in TARP, itself, with funds going unaccounted for and the market not knowing how the public will react to that.  As the Federal Reserve pushed that vehicle forward, and Timothy Geithner was a prime mover at the end of the Bush Administration and continues on in the Obama Administration, his role in this is not to be underestimated, particularly in the lead-up to the 'necessary' bailouts.

So, if you really and truly believe that all the spending will actually make the government solvent AND help out the entire market for NPLs, then you need to address the structural components leading up to this problem, which has been in large part from the federal side, with crony lending institutions (FHA, Freddie and Fannie) plus willing (or coerced) banks facilitating these policies which date back to the Carter Administration and were puffed up during the Clinton Administration and Bush Administration.  That is a bi-partisan problem and pissing about it being 'Bush's Fault' ignores the long standing structural problems both parties have willingly introduced into the lending arena.  All of those extra regulations to 'help' people have now changed the path of the entire economy, and throwing good money after bad is putting us into a nasty position of not being able to have all that lovely outgo be covered by tax income.  That then gets you inflation, as the Federal Reserve puts money into the system to cover those debts, thus reducing the value of the dollars currently held.  And supporters must then address the economic growth problem in the US, as small businesses are not hiring people due to the instability in the market introduced by the federal government and more regulations and not letting the rule of law put companies into bankruptcy for restructuring, and those external holders of our debt that have a huge insolvent debt load that needs some hard cash income to try and keep their economy afloat.

Which is China.

If you cry, bitch and moan about Halliburton and its evility, then where is the crying, bitching and moaning about AIG, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America, GM, Chrysler, etc. that are holding this country hostage with federal help?  If you complain about the petty overcharges by Halliburton, then why are you not complaining about the huge rip-off that is going on with these companies and the billions in TARP that are not being accounted for?  Would it not be better to have these large companies go through bankruptcy restructuring, which they would all do, have their debt and valuation properly assessed and then get on with life as smaller, leaner companies that would then open up the market to new entrants?  Or do you really like the idea that companies deemed 'too big to fail' can hold our Nation hostage via willing politicians willing to put these huge corporations on the dole and then run them as efficiently as the federal government can, which is at the post office level of things?

I am more than willing to let the rule of law run its course with these companies.

'Cash for Clunkers' was a nice one month sugar rush, but now the auto market is seeing less in the way of purchases as people decided to buy early and not try to get the best possible deal on a car later.  Thus you are not getting a long term upturn in the market, but a short to mid length down turn that is happening during a recession.  Thus making the recession worse.  It is that same sort of 'do something for the sake of doing something without a plan' that is causing this problem.  Extending loans to those who can't pay them back means more failed loans, not increased prosperity.  Increased prosperity means more and better paying jobs and a competitive job market, not one with artificial price supports in it at the low end which places a barrier to entry for first time job holders in place because of the cost of hiring them.  This is not getting people to work, allowing them to make a living for themselves, no matter how marginal, and making the entire cost of business much, much higher and encouraging businesses to lay off people at the low end.  Which we now have during a recession with the latest minimum wage jump.

This economy is being run into the ground by politicians who think that we can regulate our way to nirvana, and willing followers who believe that everything in life should be regulated.

That is not a description of freedom, but one of tyranny.

14 January 2008

Observing the observations on the observe on observations

H/t to Instapundit pointing out this piece by Stephen Bainbridge while he looks at Andrew Sullivan's observations on 'the surge'. And I didn't read the piece by AS, so the actual ability of myself to stay on-point is questionable, at best! I started to address some things that I have addressed before, and verbiage started to flow.

The comment wouldn't fit in the space provided.

It is not elegant unlike that claimed by Fermat.

So, without further adieu or spell checking of any sort, nor any other organization than on-the-fly commentary, here is my commentary on a piece of observation on an observer's observations of another observer observing:

One need not look only at Vietnam - that conflict was, itself, an eerie mirror of the US occupation of Haiti 1915-34. That analysis done at the USMC Staff College in 1995, points out how failures in addressing civic needs and in having a non-partisan outlook at home towards meeting goals is a requirement for COIN work. We are trying to avoid the mistakes of Haiti, and their dark mirror repeat in Vietnam, by *not* investing everything in National government. If America believes in the concept of 'federalism' (not this three state strangeness supported by Leftists) that inter-accountability of government to other, and more local, government is necessary, then the foundation of Iraq is *not* National government, but provincial and local government. First National governments serve as a framework to allow these other forms to fully stand up and function, and that is something the US missed totally in Haiti, Vietnam, the Balkans and Somalia.
'Getting a lid' on the problem soon becomes the only and over-riding concern and soon the entirety of the object of such a war. It also has a problem: it doesn't work. Part of the wash/rinse/repeat cycle of USMC involvement in small wars became the replacement of one noxious actor with another noxious actor who would favor the US. While we would press forward for democracy, as was done in Haiti, the concept of it by local authorities often differs, and harshly, from what we think it is. Democracy is *not* a top-down system, so starting at the *top* is a holding action after a war if the goal is to get democratic reform and civil society to back it started at the lowest level.

COIN becomes successful when the lowest levels of society are self-accountable (town, village, neighborhood) and are given time to understand the tools of civic protection and management. By helping in *both* realms the local, civil society sees success especially in self-protection against violent killers seeking to destroy their society and impose authoritarian or dictatorial rule. By being the friend of democracy and civil accountability the responsibility for it can be handed off with some minimal supervision and support.

There were very low levels of correlation between Iraq and, say, the Malay or Algerian experience, but a number of worries that showed up when the American political class did not have the tools to understand this. These very same politicians, due to incumbancy, had seen failures in the Balkans, Somalia, Afghanistan (the rise of the Taliban), Sudan and a few of them all the way back to Lebanon and Iran. By not being willing to learn from mistakes previously done, the ability to repeat them became ominous: a cycle of misunderstanding what democracy *is* was leading to a failure in supporting foreign policy to ensure that it spread after wartime.

That is how we got these 'benchmarks': federal level politicians who have faced no real democracy problems in holding their seats for decades now feel that federal, and therefore national level, government is the be-all, end-all of all government. That does not get you democracy nor support of liberty: those things come from self-awareness and self-responsibility to ensure civil society exists at the local level.

The disturbing part is the buy-in by so many to 'benchmarks' at a National level only and the unwillingness to recognize that democracy is *local*. What is up with that? Are we, as a Nation, so unwilling to look at our failures in post-war eras... no, scratch that... are we so unwilling to look at *any* other post-war era beyond WWII and Vietnam that we have gained a myopic view of what democracy is and how it is kept?

We could look at our own Revolutionary period (1775-89) and see that our very first attempt to establish National government via the Articles of Confederation *failed*. A number of States were also in near dissolution due to folks like the Shaysites and the draconian confiscation of farms to pay for the US debt. How about the Philippine-American war experience, a successful COIN operation that, to this day, still has some folks in Mindanao a bit upset at us that they did not get their own Republic out of the deal? How about Haiti, where so much was done right up to the point where things went seriously wrong because we did not establish localized rule beyond the National government? Some lessons learned from these three post-war periods would teach us greater lessons in what to do and what not to do if we had a cultural memory of them. How about the problems of the Reconstruction Era after the US Civil War? There are deep and hard lessons in democracy and culture to learn from that, if we ever bothered to examine it. On a nastier scale how about the repeated inability to deal with the Balkans from 1918 onwards? Well, really, there you have to go back to Macedonia under Philip to understand the problems, but even the modern era examination of the post-Ottoman occupation leaves many valuable lessons in absolutely, positively what *not* to do.

If the US can properly help the people of Iraq and Afghanistan to understand that the roots of democracy are local, and that being able to accomodate begins there, also, and that government is to be held accountable to the people and society, we just might have a successful outcome. And it will point out that the ordinary citizen soldier has a far better grasp of democracy and accountability than our political class... which is not a formula for long term stability in the US. Our performance in these conflicts is demonstrating the trust we place in our fellow citizens and the distrust by the political class at the federal level in those very same individuals who represent the people of the Nation on the battlefield and afterwards.
I can either comment or I can write... and with a bit of luck I can sometimes turn the commentary into something better.

This is not one of those times.

27 September 2007

When change is not progress

At the founding of the United States there was a clear and succinct voice that rang out beyond the great documents, beyond the Declaration of Independence. It was a voice of Revolution and yet a voice of warning, too. That voice with single clarity identifies, classifies and instructs on who we are, as a People, and how we view this world. It is a voice forgotten today, and many while noting the author, no longer note the words involved, as they were and are Revolutionary. Perhaps the best passage for our modern times comes from then, if we dare to read it:

Some writers have so confounded society with government,
as to leave little or no distinction between them
;
whereas they are not only different, but have different origins.
Society is produced by our wants, and government by our wickedness;
the former promotes our POSITIVELY by uniting our affections,
the latter NEGATIVELY by restraining our vices. The one
encourages intercourse, the other creates distinctions.
The first a patron, the last a punisher.
That writers is, of course, Thomas Paine and the quote is from Common Sense (via the Gutenberg Project), bolding is mine, unless otherwise noted.

A problem on the Left and the Right is to try and use government to enforce society, and social norms, instead of having government shift to our changing views as a People. Our society is given voice by who we are, what we want and how we approach life as a People. The government is an artifact of that process, made to ensure that our passions do not destroy our society, but not to enforce a view on the world upon that society. The major 'debates' of the last century revolved around the role of government in society, and in each and every case, MORE government intervention was chosen over LESS.

I have written elsewhere about the 10 years that changed the course of America for the worse, within that century. Starting in 1909 the US Federal Government expanded its powers over medications, to begin regulating what individuals could and could not do with their own bodies. Government put that forward via those organizations that supported them, mainly church groups seeing the ills of the Far East opium trade, and sought to end the trade by eliminating the demand. To do that, Nations had to agree to end the importation of such things and outlaw them for their peoples. The Federal Government, before that, could only tell manufacterers to list all ingredients in foods and medications, via the food and drug purity laws. That is how the government *should* act, so that the People have a truthful accounting of what they take in the way of food and medication. In proscribing certain medications to enforce a treaty, the Federal Government changed its role from that of supporting society to that of dictating to the greater society based on a religious outlook of ending the opium trade.

Instead of just taxing the hell out of the imports to try and dissuade Americans from using such things, the Federal Government went a route of authoritarianism against its own People to tell the People what was good for them. That was via the Harrison Act of 1914, to require 'stamps' for the purchase of these medications, and no stamps were ever produced or distributed. If you want the start of the 'Nannystate' then this is, perhaps, the first milestone in that. Would that such markers were so few and far between that they could not even be sighted one to the next. Suddenly a thing that individuals did, which was guiding their own use of medications, had become criminal behavior. Society could no longer be the patron of its own needs, and look after them, and government took up its role to punish those that contradicted that.

Also in 1909 would come Amendment XVI to the US Constitution that would allow the first formulation of taxation of individuals by the Federal Government to happen that would NOT be set by per capita tax, but by income. This would, in addition, remove the need of the Federal Government to go to the States to get income to run the Nation and allow the Federal Government to act in a fiscally independent mode from State based oversight. The 'power of the purse' for funding Federal Government shifted from the People and the States to the Federal Government. Previously the US had existed on tariffs and then asking States to make up the remainder based on an equal apportionment on a per capita basis. The States were left to figure out how the best way to garner that money was. Income tax, sales tax, property tax... the variety of taxes that could be levied varied and each State could figure out the best way to share the National burden for itself. The States, in separate or concert, could also WITHHOLD payments when Federal Government no longer addressed the needs of the States. That is an accountability power that Amendment XVI removed from play. Suddenly local government had lost its ability to hold the Federal system accountable to it, and the evils of local government were replaced by the distant and less accountable and larger evil of Federal Government.

Starting in 1911 would be the move to have the People directly elect Senators, and that would be ratified into the Constitution as Amendment XVII. This shifted a second, State-based, accountability factor from keeping Federal Government limited. While the appointment of Senators had always caused problems from the States, those were problems of localized, State based corruption that allowed the Federal Government to actually criticize the States for not doing their job of appointing Senators. A major question for democracy is: what happens when a major institution in a Republic is no longer strongly backed and yet is vital to the running of the Nation? The answer is NOT to change the place where the decision power rests, but that is what exactly, was done. Again, prior to this the Federal Government actually had to have its tenancies ham-strung by the States in their power to send or NOT to send Senators. If things are not getting done, perhaps it is the Federal Government's fault for not running itself well enough to gain backing by the States? Instead the People chose to move the corruption directly to themselves, so that Senators could now emulate their House colleagues in the ways of pork barrel politics.

Also in 1911 came Public Law 62-5 which would allow the US Congress to set a size that would be permanent, and no longer 'float' with the size of the population. That would have long term consequences which would remove from the House the need to address the changing size of the Nation and, instead, start to permanently divide the States into districts that would have a long range impact due to the shifting industrial basis of the Nation. The US was shifting from an agrarian system that was still the majority employer in 1911, to one in which manufacturing would be the major employer in the US in 1925. While the districts would be re-drawn to a degree to demonstrate that, those rural areas that had once had representation and would have retained that due to size of population in a proportion-based system, would now lose out in a fixed seat system. By amalgamating populations to craft new districts, distinction in populations on a rural basis was lost, even as cities gained more representatives due to the concentration of population. In a fixed proportion system with growing population, older areas that could retain their population base would retain representation, while in a fixed seat system they would lose that and need to have dissimilar towns and villages amalgamated into a larger district. The effect of that was not the marginalization of rural outlook, as it would be under fixed proportion, but the loss of diverse outlook from rural areas in favor of more homogeneous outlook based on dense, urban populations.

In 1913 the Federal Reserve Banking System would be instated, reversing the post-Civil War need for a Nationalized banking system for war finance and also reversing the veto of President Jackson on such a National Bank. In the system devised the Nation, as a whole, via its Federal Government is liable for its currency: thus financial obligations were now those of the Federal Government. This took the onus off of banks to have such equities go directly to them, but moved that responsibility to an unelected part of the Federal Government in the way of the distributed Federal Reserve Board. While this is a compromise, of sorts, to get some distributed representation into the banking system, it is not one that is directly accountable to the People and, instead, only by those passing appointment in the Senate as government officers. That is how the Federal Government controls currency and interest rates to adjust to financial conditions. In the intervening years from Jackson to Wilson, the main criticism of a Federal Bank was that it would be a majority ownership of overseas monied interests, which was the case with the First and Second Banks. While this system has prevented some 'bank runs' and alleviated 'bank panics', the question of the actual scope of government to do this is one that has not been well addressed. This is a change-over from a distributed, State integrated (or unintegrated as the case may be) system, being replaced by one of centralized control with limited district input. The accountability and tenure of such individuals appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate is not one that has been or is well addressed. While it is, no doubt, a change that adds stability, the cost of that stability remains unaddressed by the concentration of that power to the Federal level and away from the States.

Amendment XVIII in 1919 would be the only part of this suite to be repealed, as the temperance movement and anti-alcohol movement attacked the very grain and fiber of the Nation and its history in alcoholic beverages. What is even more amazing is that the actual use of alcohol was already on the decline from its high point in the 1840's, along with a shift from hard liquor to beers and wines. The generations that built the railroads, built major industrial bases, built the first industrialized cities, built transcontinental railways, and united this Nation was a hard drinking rough bunch that accomplished great feats while, apparently, being sloshed to the gills. Somehow this was painted as a demonic or 'bad' thing, and the attempt to sever the Nation from its societal roots with intoxicating beverages went too far. The short term effect of that, however, was to empower the first of the international organized crime syndicates with the easily made and transported alcohol that had been outlawed. Those crime organizations had already started to grow based on opium, heroin and then cocaine, but the supercharging of those organizations by adding in alcohol made them the very first threat to civilization succumbing to well armed thugs since the age of piracy two centuries and more previous to that.

Each of these instances is an attempt to enforce a 'societal good' or an 'easement to government' that would, each in their own way, remove decisions from individuals and concentrate power into the hands of the corrupt and unelected on a National scale. These changes did not *stop* in that era, and, indeed, some were to come forward that would be even worse than the original problems in their long term corrosion of the society of the nation in favor of the government of the nation. I will look on that in a moment, but take time to look back to Thomas Paine, again, further on in Common Sense, where he proposes a new system for government, which is a striking outline for the House, Senate and Presidency we have today, and go further to look at what he saw as the basis for governance:
But where, says some, is the King of America? I'll tell you.
Friend, he reigns above, and doth not make havoc of mankind
like the Royal Brute of Britain
. Yet that we may not appear
to be defective even in earthly honors, let a day be solemnly
set apart for proclaiming the charter
; let it be brought forth
placed on the divine law, the word of God
; let a crown be placed thereon,
by which the world may know, that so far as we approve of monarchy,
that in America THE LAW IS KING. For as in absolute governments
the King is law, so in free countries the law OUGHT to be King;
and there ought to be no other
. But lest any ill use should
afterwards arise, let the crown at the conclusion of the ceremony,
be demolished, and scattered among the people whose right it is
.
Those words are one that became deeply embedded in America, and remain so to this day as a prime foundation of the Revolution and our own outlook on government and society. The law above all is that which holds us together as a Nation, even as we, as a People, see higher Divine inspiration above Nation, so that Divine Guide is not the guide of the Nation by mortal guise but is our personal guide to make good law for all People in the Nation. As Paine had pointed out earlier:
Not one third of the inhabitants, even of this province, are of English descent.
Wherefore I reprobate the phrase of parent or mother country applied
to England only, as being false, selfish, narrow and ungenerous.
The Colonies becoming States were already diverse in their populations, distributed amongst many sources and views on religion. That we had firm and steadfast belief in the Divine is not in question: that we each saw the Divine in a rigid way was in question. These States could ill-afford religious disputes here, and so the great Peace of Westphalia to allow each man his own view on the Divine was carried over. America has always had generosity in spirit towards all those who worship or not as they chose, but neither do we force religion nor irreligion on all. We pay homage to our roots in Divine Guidance, but then must get to the practical business of having a common Nation together with those acknowledged roots. We neither slather religion across those who do not wish it, nor do we remove it from those who gain offense to any homage to our forbearers. The Divine Inspiration for the Nation must lead to the hard work of making just law across society, and those that cannot understand that it was that Inspiration that made such things possible and pay no homage to it, break with the Nation as do those that seek to put in-place a singular view of religion for the Nation as a whole. Both are wrong and contrary to the Nation's history and discourse and corrode that common society that upholds the law, itself.

This Nation has suffered greatly over its time, but we also have a strength in society that is greater than the government itself. Even when things go horribly wrong, and many fall sick and die, this Nation had the resources without the Federal Government stepping in. Strange as it may seem, the Nation looked to itself for disasters, and saw government as the last and least competent to deal with same. The Spanish Flu outbreak did not cause a sudden need to have 'government mandated health insurance', and yet it killed hundreds of thousands in the US and nearly 25 million people globally in the first 25 weeks after its appearance. Those that tended to the sick were hospitals, church organizations, missions of various sorts, philanthropic organizations. Cities, counties and States responded faster than any 'National response' by the Federal Government could have done, as waiting to get those gears in motion would have killed more and caused more suffering than treating the ill immediately. America did, indeed, look to family, town, church, and charitable hospitals to seek aid and shelter from something that the Federal Government could do very little about either in prevention or direct aid.

After the 1906 earthquake in San Francisco, the Federal Government did NOT step in to rebuild the city. State, city and local governments along with industrial and commercial concerns all played their part in removing debris, demolishing buildings, designing building codes and rebuilding the city, which would suffer again and again from that form of natural disaster. Nor did the Federal Government do much about the Great Chicago Fire of 1871 or, indeed, a host of disasters both natural and man made, that would befall the Nation time and again. Apparently when a town or city or county or even the Nation is beset by ill or illness, the first place America looks, quited pointedly, is NOT the incompetent Federal Government. But those lessons were forgotten in the one 'ill' that had no source in Government and no remedy by Government. That would be the Great Depression.

I have looked at that era in a previous work, and will bring out some of the salient points of it here, to look at the appropriateness or lack thereof, of government intervention in such things as the economy. The most startling thing to realize is that the actual decline of the Great Depression was during the period of late-1929 to mid-1933, a bit under 4 years. Only one program put in place by President Hoover, would outlast his Presidency, and that was the Reconstruction Finance Corporation that would see its major spending in that period and then taper off drastically from 1933-41 until it was re-purposed for World War II. All of the 'New Deal' programs beyond that would actually come in the recovery upturn of the economy, without exception. None of them would be the actual cause of the turning point in the economy which was due to deep business restructuring and the start of re-utilization of industrial capacity. That did not, however, stop the adding on of new things to the Federal Government that had never been under its purview before.

The Securities Act of 1933 did not pass until the actual inflection point in the economy itself, and the follow-on Securities and Exchange Commission would not come until the recovery had actually progressed upwards from that inflection point. A raft of other works and jobs programs would face high hurdles and many fell due to SCOTUS rulings. That 'start-stop' concept that came about happened, apparently, in spite of industrial recovery and may not have been, in actuality, adding much, if anything to it. While many do argue that the work to make infrastructure, via things like the Tennessee Valley Authority, also in 1933, would add jobs and security to the infrastructure of the Nations' power supply and rural electrification programs, the utility and need of the Federal Government to do that have not been properly addressed. President Franklin Roosevelt, indeed, had a view that the Federal Government *owned* such electrical generation as water regulation as part of its make-up:
"Never shall the federal government part with its sovereignty or with its control of its power resources while I'm president of the United States."
The Federal Government, apparently, owns all oversight on all power generation in the United States, as seen by President Roosevelt. This is something of a 'power grab' by the Federal Government in both the power generation and direct accountability aspects to it. And as the TVA crosses many State lines, the Federal Government should have a part in regulation, but its role to actually build, run and maintain it are highly dubious at best. The sovereignty of the power resources of the Nation is for the People to utilize as they will, not for the Federal Government to take to itself. Control of the inter-State commerce part of that is up to Congress to decide, but those things that are entirely intra-State are outside of those powers, until Congress put forward that purely in-State dealings in things that have a National market allow it to use its inter-State commerce powers to regulate it. That was the basis of the Raich decision on 6 DEC 2005. Thusly if President Roosevelt was right, any Congress can put forward that all private means of power generation... say buying solar panels for your home... will have an impact on the National power market and thus should be regulated. Do not be surprised if one's own power production needs a meter on it to pay Federal taxes. That should make some individuals uncomfortable: that any means to address environmental concerns require obedience to Federal taxation for something that is free, like sunlight, being converted to electricity. Apparently sunlight can be put through a meter, and it isn't the power companies that can do it, but the Federal government.

One program that was never intended to live past the Depression era was enacted in 1935, again well past the point where the economy was recovering. That was the provision to provide of old-age, survivors and disability insurance (OASDI) better known as: Social Security. Here, again, is something that the Republic of the United States had survived without since 1776, and even with the easing of the Depression and the re-employment of individuals, there was little actual need to remove from the hands of individuals their own ability to provide for their future needs. While there were, indeed, many older workers that were suddenly out of work, that was also true of their younger counter-parts. The idea of OASDI was to remove the older workers from the workforce by a forced retirement system to get Social Security benefits. Unfortunately the first pay-out from the system was on 31 JAN 1940 not only well after the Great Depression had passed but also after the 1937 Recession which had marked the end of the Great Depression. Apparently older workers were *still* expected to undergo forced retirement and end their contribution to the workforce once the Nation was expanding economically before WWII. The post 1937 Recession recovery was robust and growing in its need for workers, with industrial expansion on the rise by the industrial sector.

The two premises of the OASDI system are deeply and highly flawed: 1) that the number of jobs in the marketplace is fixed, and, 2) that life expectancy is fixed. In the Depression these two things were forgotten, with the sudden decline of so many individuals having so little income to sustain themselves. Post-Depression, however, both of these proved false almost immediately with economic expansion going beyond pre-1929 levels of employment and life expectancy continuing to rise even during the Great Depression. Both of these had upward trends since 1900, with only the Influenza Epidemic having a number of years of decreased life expectancy. With those two concepts of Social Security sitting fixed, the economic problems that each would cause, cumulatively, now force this Nation to question the wisdom of having the concept of a 'retirement age'. Life expectancy increases, alone, mean a nearly 14% drop in the number of productive years one can expect to be working as part of one's life. Previous to OASDI, an average individual could expect to spend 45% of their lives in the workforce, and that does not include any time spent as children or teens working. Today the average individual can expect 31% of their life to be in the active workforce. That delta is paid for by transfer payments to the young, working class of individuals to the older workers who have retired. As life expectancy increases, although well below the absolute known limits for human old age, more of that time is spent not working and is subsidized by younger workers.

Strange as it may seem to say, most of the time America has existed was spent with people working to effective old age, and only retiring when they either could not work or their own plans for retiring had come about. The removal of letting an individual decide this and letting the Federal Government do so has been an increased dependence of older individuals on Federal payments and removing self-reliance from individuals to plan for their own old-age needs. Even worse is that the Social Security 'Trust Fund' is a revolving door account, in which no money is put into actual 'Trust' via securities and all payments depend on taxation upon workers. That is not 'Insurance' it is a direct income redistribution from struggling younger workers to older individuals who should be both older and wiser in their handling of their lives. Beyond that, the lack of investment due to the 'Trust' taxation means that income that would normally have either been spent or invested by younger individuals for such things as homes or old age security goes to those who are no longer working and should have prepared for this known eventuality in life: it is called 'getting old' and it is across-the-board and a well known phenomena.

It may have had some basis earlier on, when actually being able to invest widely was difficult for low income individuals, but that era passed with the entry of automated mutual funds for investing, and fractional stock ownership in such funds. While a relatively poor worker of the 1930's did not have such opportunities, that is not true of an entry level worker in 2007 and hasn't been true for a couple of decades. Today's workers no longer expect to *get* any payment via Social Security and plan accordingly with their remaining funds. This 'entitlement' was invented for a particular era and need and now has almost become a 'right' and the Federal Government had very little place or standing to do this when it did. In so doing, however, a real problem happened in the 1940's when numbers of individuals were ready to retire and they were needed for wartime production! As no good deed goes unpunished, this program was removing workers from the active workforce just as they were needed to replace younger men going off to war. To encourage those that would normally retire, a number of 'non-wage benefits' were put in place by businesses and one of them was given a tax write-off by the Federal Government: health insurance.

As John Stossel goes over in Bad Medecine (21 SEP 2007, NY Sun), insurance is the worst way to pay for medical care invented. Prior to the war-time subsidies via tax-code, Americans looked after their own health care directly. Most individuals went uninsured and some purchased forms of what today would be considered 'catastrophic care' plans, although most would fall under the 'accidental death and dismemberment' concept of insurance. Health insurance, itself, while not unknown was not widely used and the need for individuals to understand their own health limited the utilization of health practitioners and medications to chronic diseases or immediate ailments. It should be noted that even the Influenza Epidemic did not cause a rush to 'health insurance', even with the death toll that came with it. By requiring individuals to pay their own way, health care costs were minimized and, yes, often at the expense of long-term health. This did not prevent overall life expectancy to continue to rise even without 'health insurance'. Today the cost of overhead to the 'health insurance' system is entirely due to the 'insurance' part and not the health part. Actual costs to the individual for actual doctor treatment time and not paying for paperwork has changed very little in America. What has changed is the need to keep and manage health insurance records, fill out forms, undergo third party governance of what is and is not good for one's health and, generally, time and effort spent in trying to keep track of all of this. That overhead has now changed the system itself to a document management system that, as a minor function, also delivers a little health care.

When that tax subsidy did not end 'health insurance', previously a little used benefit for high wage workers, was retained and enrollment in it would swell. This causes a systemic distortion in two areas: 1) perceived cost when little payment is directly made for care causing spiraling cost as overhead increases out of proportion with delivered care due to fraud and over-utilization, and, 2) loss of control over one's own health. Both of these are hard to deal with, as 'let the insurance company handle it' has become the catch phrase, but one that indicates little understanding of the cost in 'letting the insurance company handle it'. Additionally the need to practice 'defensive medicine' and order many more tests than are needed to diagnose a condition, so that any malpractice suits will have little chance of standing adds burden into the system. Fraud not only by physicians but by patients that over utilize the system or who seek to cause an error to their benefit via lawsuit add into the expense of health care via 'insurance'. And as the number of procedures increase, the paperwork for each multiplies what has to be tracked by doctors and the insurance companies. To control over-prescribing of medications or fraudulent prescription of same, insurance companies now wield extra-ordinary power over an individual's health and will put down draconian limits on some medications that may be more expensive (due to their paperwork overhead, especially for 'controlled' substances). The result is that while many older medications may get under utilized, in preference to 'newer' and more expensive ones, individuals who need the benefits of the newer medications may not have access to them as insurance companies mandate more paperwork for justification for those newer medications.

Politicians who try to exploit these 'entitlements' or to try and create new 'entitlements' further distort the health care system towards their own ends, while not offering any improvement in cost, overhead or actual care delivery. By making such a system 'universal' and mandatory, the need for 'control' over the use and utilization increases, the overhead increases disproportionately to the amount of utilization and those that see no benefit in it (mostly the young and healthy) feel as if money is being extorted from them to no good nor useful end. We forget that for 'insurance' to be useful, the majority never get a real pay-out on it at any one time. Life insurance has a single-time payout and is a bet that you will die and the insurance company thinks otherwise. Similarly health insurance is your bet you will be sick in a given time period and the insurance company expecting otherwise. You purchase insurance to cover need and eventualities based on individual perception of those. Mandating same indicates that lack of trust in individuals to judge their own need and provide for it. That is government removing personal responsibility from the individual and putting it in the hands of a bureaucrat.

It is very strange to see such things, and yet, when reading Paine there is an eerie foreboding that one can get out of passages he wrote to describe the state of the Colonies just as the Revolution had begun:
The present state of America is truly alarming to every man who is
capable of reflexion. Without law, without government, without any
other mode of power than what is founded on, and granted by courtesy.
Held together by an unexampled concurrence of sentiment, which,
is nevertheless subject to change, and which, every secret enemy is
endeavouring to dissolve. Our present condition, is, Legislation
without law; wisdom without a plan; a constitution without a name;
and, what is strangely astonishing, perfect Independance contending
for dependance.
The instance is without a precedent; the case never
existed before; and who can tell what may be the event? The property
of no man is secure in the present unbraced system of things
. The mind
of the multitude is left at random, and seeing no fixed object before
them, they pursue such as fancy or opinion starts. Nothing is criminal;
there is no such thing as treason; wherefore, every one thinks himself
at liberty to act as he pleases
. The Tories dared not have assembled
offensively, had they known that their lives, by that act, were forfeited
to the laws of the state. A line of distinction should be drawn, between,
English soldiers taken in battle, and inhabitants of America taken in arms.
The first are prisoners, but the latter traitors.
The one forfeits his liberty, the other his head.
Legislation without law, a Constitution without a name, independence contending for dependence, the property of no man secured, nothing criminal and no such thing as treason... that is, unfortunately, an apt description of much of America today.

We have seen this before in America.

01 June 2007

Theoretical security and the more, unpleasant, reality

Well, with the inanity of the Illegal Alien Amnesty Bill comes those who do put forth that it would actually *help* find and stop terrorists! A h/t to Curt at Flopping Aces for pointing out this post at Big Lizards by Dafydd ab Hugh responding to Hugh Hewitt's worries about terrorists getting a parole Z-Visa and being here legally in: Where's Walid? In this exercise we will posit that the bill actually passes! From there we will pass into the theoretical projection and see where it leads us. So lets take it from the mid-way point:

Suppose the bill passes, and a bunch of illegal immigrants apply for Parole Cards (the provisional Z visas -- at least, that's what Sen. Jon Kyl, R-AZ, 92%, calls them). Hugh's worry is that among all the Gonzaleses and Ramirezes and Garcias will be hidden a few Mohammeds and Zarqawis... or even a Padilla or two.

Hugh is terrified that these terrorists could also apply for Parole Cards, and then be able to move around the country, get work, and even exit and reenter the United States at will. Of course, they can do that today... but Hugh seems to believe that they're more likely to be caught and deported today, with no bill, than they would be next year with a bill and Z visas and Parole Cards. (I have no idea what current mechanism for capturing and deporting them Hugh sees; it certainly eludes my sight.)

Let's carefully break down what it means to exit and reenter the country and to work: The border-crosser must show a passport and a SmartVisa. Specifically, he must swipe the card through a reader; this necessarily creates a record of leaving and reentering. Too, moving from place to place within the U.S. and working also creates a phosphor trail. But so what? How does that help capture terrorists?

Enter the CIA's old computer connection-tracking program, Total Information Awareness. Congress got hysterical in 2003, defunding it -- or so they thought; but it's widely believed still to be in existence, just shifted under the umbrella of black-ops programs and funded by secret accounts.
Ah, such a lovely trust of the Federal procurement system and the ability of the CIA and other organizations to create an interconnect database system that will do its very own dot connections and spew out the leads and such as it goes.

Now, here is the deal with this bill: it requires scanty evidence to apply for a Z-Visa and the automatic grant of such. Let us see about this in section 601 of the online markup page at NZ Bear's site. For once I will try and spare the dear reader of large amounts of quoted text and cite important page and refernces! I am sure there will still be lots of quoted text, however.

Starting with Section 601 on p. 260 we get who, being here illegally, can apply. Now far be it from me to point out the conundrum of being here illegally being a violation of not only National Law but any number of Treaties as I already did that with this post and this post. Yes someone applying must now demonstrate that they were here illegally for at *least* 180 days prior to 01 JAN 2007 or for 90 continuous days before that date! And what do they need to get in? Here is 601 (2)(g)(2)(A):

(A) In General.--The application form shall request such information as the Secretary deems necessary and appropriate, including but not limited to, information concerning the alien's physical and mental health; complete criminal history, including all arrests and dispositions; gang membership, renunciation of gang affiliation; immigration history; employment history; and claims to United States citizenship.
And in (3) is fingerprints added to that. All of this fully documented and cross-checked! And in 601(2)(h)(1):

(1) IN GENERAL- An alien who files an application for Z nonimmigrant status shall, upon submission of any evidence required under paragraphs (f) and (g) and after the Secretary has conducted appropriate background checks, to include name and fingerprint checks, that have not by the end of the next business day produced information rendering the applicant ineligible -

(A) be granted probationary benefits in the form of employment authorization pending final adjudication of the alien's application;

(B) may in the Secretary's discretion receive advance permission to re-enter the United States pursuant to existing regulations governing advance parole;

(C) may not be detained for immigration purposes, determined inadmissible or deportable, or removed pending final adjudication of the alien's application, unless the alien is determined to be ineligible for Z nonimmigrant status; and

(D) may not be considered an unauthorized alien (as defined in section 274A(h)(3) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1324a(h)(3))) unless employment authorization under subparagraph (A) is denied.

(2) Timing of Probationary Benefits."No probationary benefits shall be issued to an alien until the alien has passed all appropriate background checks or the end of the next business day, whichever is sooner.
Yes, you have read that right in 24 hours! In just one business day you have the full and complete backing of the ACLU and, no doubt, various lawyers working for such notables as the American Muslim Union, on your side!

Mind you, even if your papers don't pan out in the long run, the burden of proof is upon the government to 'show cause' why you should be deported, and as you have all the legal rights under the Constitution, you can then tie up the system for months or years in getting any prosecutions done. Show up at 5 pm one day, and 5 pm the next and every Local, State and Federal criminal database, plus database of known terrorists, plus checking out your actual documents to see if you actually are who you say you are, and the fingerprint database (has that finally been reconciled with the rest of the FBI's databases? I mean those folks spent 10 years trying to get a few databases to all operate together and billions of dollars and failed to do so. Twice.), verified your background fully and completely as can be done for someone coming from, most likely, a Nation with scanty computer resources, personnel and other capabilities....

The idea of background checks is that they are: lengthy, thorough and act as a screen BEFORE you give someone goodies to make sure they are who they say they are and are deserving of same. This system is based upon the supposition that they DO DESERVE THEM and that little effort can be put into actually *checking them out*. One is now in the exact position which Dafydd has posited: we cannot screen out bad actors because of the limitations of time placed upon such verification. And since so much falls upon the documentary evidence here, a bit later on, is the sweetened, condensed listing of what is acceptable: anything that establishes their presence, employment, or study, bank records, business records, employment records, labor union or day labor center, remittance records, sworn affidavits from nonrelatives who have direct knowledge of the alien's work, that contain (name, address, phone number, nature of relationship), or anything else the Secretary finds acceptable.

I call this aspect of it: the forger's full employment act.

If memory serves DHS and State had to weed out over 6 million incomplete, invalid, false or forged documents and try to verify a good number of them when looking at Visa applicants. That was *only* for Visa applicants, as Citizenship takes some time to go through the processing and weeds out its own bad papers. If the 7 million number for illegal aliens is correct, the absolute minimum number of pieces of bad paperwork to be checked out will be astronomical.

When I looked at the person-to-person banking and business systems that operate for money laundering, the number of connections to organized crime and terrorism are readily apparent. It is now possible wherever any of these informal systems operate to get bank, business, presence, employment, or, indeed, any of the records listed via the person-to-person contact system and have them delivered to you for a cash payment in your Nation of origin. Dafydd does believe that the TIA concept can actually *cover this*:
The reason it was so effective is that it was simply an object-oriented database data-matching application. It was not programmed with any pre-existing biases for one type of connection above the others; it noted and kept track of any and all connections between datapoints -- between Walid the terrorist and Guido the Mafioso, for example. Then it allowed for queries at any level of complexity.

The operators looked for connections where they would not expect to find any. Of course you could find a connection between the Secretary of State and various unsavory political leaders; that's the secretary's job. Nobody thinks Condoleezza Rice is in league with Bashar Assad simply because she met with him during a trip to Syria.

But suppose some dentist in Minneapolis calls Zarqawi in Iraq, then is called by a known terrorist in Pakistan, then is spotted by the FBI having lunch with an arms dealer in Minneapolis, then shows up as a co-signer on a loan to buy an airplane, when the other co-signer is a radical imam operating at a mosque out of Idaho.

Those connections are completely unexpected; why would one lousy dentist know all these people? In fact, that pattern is so suspicious that we should initiate surveillance to see what our "dentist" is up to.

But without TIA, the authorities would never have stumbled across the connections because they cross jurisdictional boundaries: The CIA identifies the terrorists abroad; the NSA records the calls; the FBI is tracking the arms dealer; and nobody is paying any attention to the imam. Without a single, unified database to bring all these observations together, nobody would notice the previously unknown dentist at the center of the web.

Now we take the TIA database... and we add to it the Parole Card and Z visa. Suppose we're looking for Walid Achmed Mohammed, a suspected jihadist who is thought to have sneaked into the United States in 2006 under an unknown alias. Today, we would have no idea where Walid could be found; because he is underground, he could be anywhere, under any name, working for anyone.

We make some educated guesses; let's suppose, just as Hugh fears, that Walid gets himself a Parole Card so he can move about and in and out.

CIA informants report that Walid was spotted at a "terrorism convention" in Pakistan in January of 2008; then another source believes Walid was at a training and planning session at a safehouse somewhere in Madrid in July. But that's all we know.

Under today's rules, that doesn't help us at all. But under the rules established by this bill, the very first thing we should do is query the TIA database to see which holders of Z visas traveled to Pakistan in January 2008 and to Madrid in July of 2008... I'd bet there were not that many. (Check not only direct routes but the roundabout routes that terrorists tend to use; the CIA is actually pretty good at that nowadays.)

Then you take that list of Social-Security numbers, winnow out the obvious non-targets, and plug that into the Z-visa employment database. This will tell you where the eight or nine potential "Walids" have worked in the past year. Since the real Walid has no reason to believe he has been outed, he will probably follow the same pattern... criss-crossing the country carrying messages and money and working for the same set of employers along the way.

By staking out each of those employers around the times he usually shows up, we suddenly have a very good plan for grabbing Walid Achmed Mohammed and hustling him off to Gitmo. And the best part is, neither he nor anybody in his cell would have the slightest idea how we did it!
I have some bad news for this lovely, object oriented system: when things are done at a distance with no record of intermediaries, you will, indeed start to stumble upon irregularities and you will have no idea what they mean. There is this lovely conception that data falls neatly together when it is properly tagged, entered and categorized. I have some bad news for anyone believing this on the Federal side: to cross the number of databases and their networks and security classification levels to do this is impossible.

The DoD, to get some better connectivity, spent 3 years to try and get from 7 different networks, each with their own classification and security constraints down to 5. The number of organizations involved included: NSA, CIA, DoD (Pentagon level), NRO, NGA, DISA, Dept. of State. When I last saw that project it was 2 years behind schedule, over budget and not working to segregate data streams like it should. That was some years back, but points to the Turf War problem and the inability of these actors to all play in the same sandbox.

To get this splendiferous TIA working, which was never Total in any way, shape or form nor designed to receive such large amounts of data but utilize clean data sets that had relatively rigorous metadata standards applied to them. To do *that* to this immigration bill will require all of the following to cooperate closely: DHS (including ICE, Border Patrol, and various other offices), FBI, Justice (Hoover building level, and no it isn't ALL FBI), IRS, HHS, CIA, NSA, DoD, DISA, State, Treasury, All of the State Criminal Databases, various international databases that the US has entree to via Treaty (like that Canadian one that put out bad information on an individual and the Canadian system was so CF'd that they could not even figure out if he was a citizen). Each of these groups comes with multiple databases, with multiple different and often non-agreeing metadata standards, each with their own sign-offs on who can and cannot use the system and at least 3 or 4 different and incompatible security classifications. Excuse me while I apply my background to this and state, definitively, that if you want this system up and working in less than 10 years, you are pipe dreaming.

We will have Quantum Computing before this massive database project gets *started*. People love to wave the magic wand of CIA around and make it out to be some splendid Agency that can work absolute miracles. They cannot even stop National Security leaks from their own Agency and the volume of those and number of operations and agents put at risk from those leaks makes a number of folks wonder exactly *who* they are working for. I would set the funding for this massive computer system in at around $3-5 billion, because of the amount of work and standardization that needs to go on up front before it can even be tested. This will require cross-working database standards, metadata standards, coming up with agreed upon internetworking capability, figuring out what the classification standards will be for the inflowing and outflowing data, finding out which networks need to get some inter-connectivity to them and working *those* issues, and that is before you even decide who can be allowed to have access to the actual, resultant data. That is the glory of object oriented databases: they like to know what the objects actually ARE and have good and clean definitions of them before you start. Meanwhile, for the next decade, you are stuck with multiple, incompatible databases, differing security standards, different computer networks and limited access to the resulting work product and all numbers of Agencies throwing hissy-fits that their turf is being invaded.

Mind you, a decade and $3-5 billion is OPTIMISTIC. I have personally seen more reported on other projects with higher amounts for less result in the recent past in the Federal Government because the lovely folks trying to put a neat and spiffy capability together do not understand the very basics of what it takes to actually get all of those lovely different parts of the government to work together. For something this size the Technical Working Group meeting will be at least 5-15 individuals from each of those groups I mentioned, including separate entourages for the sub-groups as they all are 'stakeholders' in the various systems and will have their work impacted by anything that fiddles with them. To get one relatively minor project going in one Agency, I have held working group meetings that consisted of over 30 individuals. And that was for a project that had high level blessing, which only means the back room knife fights are kept to a minimum.

We will get this splendid system that Dafydd posits the exact same day the HAL 9000 is put online.

Remember: each of those lovely documents needs some sort of tie-back, cross-check and such. These person-to-person banking and transaction systems have wide reach and scope, so the ability to find the disparate datapoints is damned difficult when someone from Syria contacts a peso exchange operator via a local hawala to get documents from, say, Denver, to show that someone has *lived there* and all you need are some relatively minor and obscure residency and employment records. These people are not *fools* who have been outwitting the FBI, CIA and other Federal Agencies for decades: they know how to leave a damned near impossible to find trail that leaves everyone looking legitimate and yet transacts and launders funds on a global basis.

This is before we even factor in the problem that Dafydd's 'Walid' can walk over to Mexico, jet out to Pakistan for a month, be spotted, come back, and have documents that PROVE he has been in the US all this time because he did not go through the border controls and picked up a different passport and visa for Pakistan from a contact on the other side of the border. By circumventing those lovely inputs, the CIA would *prove* that he was in Pakistan but have nowhere else to go because he had used the Transnational Terrorist and International Organized Crime internetworks to his advantage for cash advances, spending, visas, passports and such. And because he is utilizing the criminal side of things and getting false employment records for 'day labor' work that is minimal income it would be extremely difficult to demonstrate that he had *not* been here.

In this, even if the system works, the structural deficiencies of the actual, physical border and transport across it makes the entire concept irrelevent. In point of fact without physical barriers that are impassible and some way of checking for things like light aircraft and ultralights, there is *no way* to make individuals go through the actual ports of entry. And, because of Moore's Law, I will believe in a 'virtual wall' the exact same time that we get a 'virtual bathroom'. No real toilet paper allowed.

I place an actual, real, physical wall *with* sensors at around $5 billion and it would go up a damned sight faster than any data warehouse interconnection concept inside the Federal Government and have the great and good benefit of being armed, stopping illegal flights and having deep pilings to stop tunneling. If we had one of THOSE we could then have good, controlled ports of entry and actually consider this lovely data scheme, or just make enforceable and trackable Z-visas via it. But then if we had an actual, real, physical wall with deterrents of the lethal sort on them we would not have this problem in the first place now, would we?