19 January 2008

The new fronts in the Global War on Terrorism - Part II

The following post is made with Windows Live Writer, which may or may not be a help but it looks to be worth a try. (The x64 installs are here via the .msi files, which are necessary for folks using WinXP Pro x64 as the Mothership's Live Team has been remiss in actually working with their own supported operating systems). As Jerry Pournelle says: "I do these things so you won't have to."

This is picking up after the hasty post of Part I, as I was unsure of the availability of my offline material. To pick up that thread of looking at the other and new fronts on the GWOT, I examined the Philippines, Somalia, and gave short shrift to Kosovo as I had recently posted on that.

The Balkans - Albania

I will expand a bit on The Balkans, however, from that previous post on Kosovo as it demonstrates a prime mover of the Islamic form of terrorism outside of religion and oil money. That mover is the transport of illegal drugs that have mostly been done by organized crime, but is now being aided and abetted by (and often taken over by) terrorist organizations. Most people discount this trade as a funding source, but the scope of it is not addressed, so that a proper examination of its impact can be measured. For this I will utilize the testimony of Frank J. Cilluffo, Deputy Director, Global Organized Crime Program, Director, Counterterrorism Task Force, Center for Strategic & International Studies given before Congress on 13 DEC 2000. In his testimony he offers a brief snapshot of the world affairs of terrorism circa 2000 concentrating on terrorism and 'narco-states', and things have not changed much since then, even with the removal of the Taliban and Saddam Hussein. He gives us this look at the Balkans:

During the NATO campaign against the former Yugoslavia in the Spring of 1999, the Allies looked to the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) to assist in efforts to eject the Serbian army from Kosovo. What was largely hidden from public view was the fact that the KLA raise part of their funds from the sale of narcotics. Albania and Kosovo lie at the heart of the "Balkan Route" that links the "Golden Crescent" of Afghanistan and Pakistan to the drug markets of Europe. This route is worth an estimated $400 billion a year and handles 80 percent of heroin destined for Europe.
That is quite a bit of funds to pass through the region and the other man to give testimony that day would add into that with a more particular view. That was Ralf Mutschke, Interpol's Assistant Director, Criminal Intelligence Directorate to the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime on 13 DEC 2000, and the excerpt is lengthy due to the nature of the complexity involved:
Albanian Organized Crime Groups.

Albanian organized crime groups are hybrid organizations, often involved both in criminal activity of an organized nature and in political activities, mainly relating to Kosovo. There is certain evidence that the political and criminal activities are deeply intertwined. Also, it has become increasingly clear that Albanian crime groups have engaged in significant cooperation with other transnational crime groups.

Several extraneous factors explain the current, relatively strong, position of Albanian organized crime:

1. Concerning Albanian organized crime in the United States, the 1986 break-up of the "Pizza connection" made it possible for other ethnic crime groups to "occupy" the terrain which had until then been dominated by the Italians. For Albanians this was especially easy since they had already been working with, or mainly for, Italian organized crime.

2. Due to a highly developed ethnic conscience - fortified by a Serb anti- Albanian politics in the 80’s and 90’s, Albanians, particularly Kosovars, have developed a sense of collective identity necessary to engage in organized crime. It is this element, based on the affiliation to a certain group, which links organized Albanian crime to Panalbanian ideals, politics, military activities and terrorism. Albanian drug lords established elsewhere in Europe began contributing funds to the "national cause" in the 80’s. From 1993 on, these funds were to a large extent invested in arms and military equipment for the KLA (UÇK) which made its first appearance in 1993.

3. From 1990 on, the process of democratization in Albania has resulted in a loss of state control in a country that had been totally dominated by the communist party and a system of repression. Many Albanians lacked respect for the law since, to them, they represented the tools of repression during the old regime. Loss of state structures resulted in the birth of criminal activities, which further contributed to the loss of state structures and control.

4. Alternative routing for about 60% of European heroin became necessary in 1991 with the outbreak of the war in Yugoslavia and the blocking of the traditional Balkan route. Heroin was thus to a large extent smuggled through Albania, over the Adriatic into Italy and from there on to Northern and Western Europe. The war also enabled organized criminal elements to start dealing arms on a large scale.

5. Another factor which contributed to the development of criminal activities, is the embargos imposed on Yugoslavia by the international community and on the F.Y.RO.M. by Greece (1993-1994) in the early 90’s. Very quickly, an illegal triangular trade in oil, arms and narcotics developed in the region with Albania being the only state not hit by international sanctions.

6. In 1997, the so-called pyramid savings schemes in the Albanian republic collapsed. This caused nation-wide unrest between January and March 1997, during which incredible amounts of military equipment disappeared (and partly reappeared during the Kosovo conflict): 38,000 hand-guns, 226,000 Kalashnikovs, 25,000 machine-guns, 2,400 anti-tank rocket launchers, 3,500,000 hand grenades, 3,600 tons of explosives. Even though organized crime groups were probably unable to "control" the situation, it seems clear that they did profit from the chaos by acquiring a great number of weapons. Albanian organized crime also profited from the financial pyramids which they seem to have used to launder money on a large scale. Before the crash, an estimated 500 to 800 million USD seem to have been transferred to accounts of Italian criminal organizations and Albanian partners. This money was then reinvested in Western countries.

7. The Kosovo conflict and the refugee problem in Albania resulted in a remarkable influx of financial aid. Albanian organized crime with links to Albanian state authorities seems to have highly profited from these funds. The financial volume of this aid was an estimated $163 million. The financial assets of Albanian organized crime were definitely augmented due to this situation.

8. When considering the presence of Albanians in Europe, one has to keep in mind the massive emigration of Albanians to Western European countries in the 90’s. In 2000, estimations concerning the Albanian diaspora are as follows:
United States and Canada: 500,000
Greece: 500,000
Germany: 400,000
Switzerland: 200,000
Turkey: 65,000
Sweden: 40,000
Great Britain: 30,000
Belgium: 25,000
France: 20,000
For those emigrants to EU countries or Switzerland, the temptation to engage in criminal activities is very high as most of them are young Albanian males, in their twenties and thirties, who are unskilled workers and who have difficulties finding a job. For Italian organized crime, these Albanians were ideal couriers in the drug trafficking business running through Albania as they were able to circumvent the area border patrols after the outbreak of the war in Yugoslavia. Many of them came into contact with Albanian organized crime through Albanian émigré communities located throughout Western Europe. This gave an impetus to the dispersion and internationalization of Albanian criminal groups.

The typical structure of the Albanian Mafia is hierarchical. Concerning "loyalty", "honor" and clan traditions, (blood relations and marriage being very important) most of the Albanian networks seem to be "old-fashioned" and comparable to the Italian Mafia networks of thirty or forty years ago. Infiltration into these groups is thus very difficult. Heroin networks are usually made up of groups of fewer than 100 members, constituting an extended family residing all along the Balkan route from Eastern Turkey to Western Europe. The Northern Albanian Mafia which runs the drug wholesale business is also known by the name of "The Fifteen Families."

Regarding cooperation with other transnational criminal groups, the Albanian Mafia seems to have established good working relationships with the Italian Mafia. On the 27th of July 1999 police in Durrës (Albania), with Italian assistance arrested one of the godfathers of the "Sacra Corona Unita", Puglia’s Italian Mafia. This Albanian link seems to confirm that the Sacra Corona Unita have "officially" accepted Albanian organized crime as a "partner" in Puglia/Italy and delegated several criminal activities. This might be due to the fact that the Sacra Corona Unita is a rather recent phenomenon, not being as stable nor as strong as other Mafias in Italy. Their leaders might have decided to join forces rather than run the risk of a conflict with Albanian groups known to be extremely violent. Thus in certain areas of Italy, the market for cannabis, prostitution and smuggling of illegal immigrants is run mainly by Albanians. Links to Calabria’s Mafia, the "Ndrangheta", exist in Northern Italy. Several key figures of the Albanian Mafia seem to reside frequently in the Calabrian towns of Africo, Plati and Bovalino (Italy), fiefs of the Ndrangheta. Southern Albanian groups also seem to have good relationships with Sicily’s "Cosa Nostra", which seems to be moving steadily into finance and money laundering, leaving other typical illegal activities to other groups. Close relationships also exist with other criminal groups active along the Balkan route, where Turkish wholesalers, Bulgarian and Romanian traffickers are frequent business partners. There are also indications that a South American cartel has become active in Albania through Albanian middlemen, in order to place more cocaine on the European market.

The heavy involvement of Albanian criminal groups in drugs trafficking, mainly heroin is proven. Currently, more than 80% of the heroin on the European market has been smuggled through the Balkans, having mainly been produced in Afghanistan and traveled through Iran and Turkey or Central Asia. In the Balkan region, two routes seem to have replaced the former traditional route, disrupted by the Yugoslavian conflict: one Northern route running mainly through Bulgaria, then Romania and Hungary and one Southern route running from Bulgaria through F.Y.R.O.M., the Kosovo region and Albania. An average of more than a ton of heroin and more than 10 tons of hashish are seized along those Balkan routes each year. According to DEA estimations, between 4 and 6 tons of heroin leave Turkey each month bound for Western Europe, traveling along the Balkan routes.

Albanian trafficking networks are becoming more and more powerful, partly replacing Turkish networks. This is especially the case in several German speaking countries, Sweden and Norway. According to some estimations, Albanian networks control about 70% of the heroin market today in Switzerland, Germany, Austria and the Scandinavian countries. According to analyses of the Swedish and Norwegian police, 80% of the heroin smuggled into the countries can be linked to Albanian networks. In 1998, Swiss police even estimated that 90% of the narco-business in the country was dominated by Albanians. Throughout Europe, around 40% of the heroin trade seems to be controlled by Albanians. Recent refugees from the Kosovo region are involved in street sales. Tensions between the established ethnic Albanians and newcomers seem to exist, heroin prices having dropped due to their arrival and due to growing competition in the market.

Albanian networks are not only linked to heroin. In the Macedonian border region, production laboratories for amphetamine and methamphetamine drugs seem to have been set up. Currently, these pills are destined for the local market. Cannabis is grown in Albania and cultivation seems to have become more and more popular, especially in the South. Annual Albanian marijuana revenue is estimated at $40 million. In 1999, cannabis plantations existed in the regions of Kalarat (about 80 kilometers from Vlorë/Albania) and close to Girokastër in the regions of Sarandë, Delvina and Permetti. Albanian cannabis is mainly sold on the Greek market. In order to transport the drugs to Greece, Albanian crime groups work together with Greek criminals.

Albanian criminals are also involved in the traffic of illegal immigrants to Western European countries. It is part of international trafficking networks, which not only transport Albanians, but also Kurds, Chinese and people from the Indian subcontinent. The Albanian groups are mainly responsible for the crossing of the Adriatic Sea from the Albanian coast to Italy. Departures mainly take place from Vlorë, some of them from Durrës or even from Ulcinj in the South of Montenegro. By the end of 1999, the crossing costs about $1,000 USD for an adult and $500 USD for a child. It is interesting to notice that some illegal immigrants had to pay for their journey only once in their home country (e.g. $6,000 in Pakistan), but that the nationality of the trafficking groups changed as they moved along. This implies that Albanian groups are only a part of international distribution networks. In 1999, approximately 10,000 people were smuggled into EU countries via Albania every month. The Italian border patrol intercepted 13,118 illegal immigrants close to the Puglian coast from January until July 1999. It estimated arrivals only in this coastal region at 56,000 in 1999. For the Albanian crime groups, illegal immigration - even though it can not be compared to the narco-business - is an important source of income, bringing in an estimated fifty million USD in 1999.
Immigration is not only a source of income, it is also very important in order to create networks in foreign countries and thus create bridgeheads for the Albanian Mafia abroad. Reports indicate that of the people admitted into Western European or North America as refugees during the Kosovo conflict, at least several had been carefully chosen by the Albanian Mafia to stay in the host country and act as a future liaison for the criminal networks.

Trafficking in women and forced prostitution seem to have become much more important for Albanian organized crime in 1999, with thousands of women from Kosovo having fled to Albania during the armed conflict in the region. About 300,000 women from Eastern European countries work as prostitutes in Europe. More and more seem to be "organized" in Albanian networks that are not only limited to ethnic Albanian prostitutes, but also comprise women from Romania, Bosnia, Moldova, Russia, etc. The pimps often pretend to be Kosovars in order to have the status of a political refugee, even though many of them come from Albania. Some seem to control the "business" from abroad. Belgium, in particular, seems to be the seat of several leaders of the trafficking networks. In 1999, ten people linked to Albanian crime were shot in Brussels.

Finally, Albanian criminal groups frequently engage in burglaries, armed robberies and car theft in Europe and the United States.

There might still be links between political/military Kosovar Albanian groups (especially the KLA) and Albanian organized crime. Of the almost 900 million DM which reached Kosovo between 1996 and 1999, half was thought to be illegal drug money. Legitimate fundraising activities for the Kosovo and the KLA could have been be used to launder drug money. In 1998, the U.S. State Department listed the KLA as a terrorist organization, indicating that it was financing its operations with money from the international heroin trade and loans from Islamic countries and individuals, among them allegedly Usama bin Laden. Another link to bin Laden is the fact that the brother of a leader in an Egyptian Djihad organization and also a military commander of Usama bin Laden, was leading an elite KLA unit during the Kosovo conflict. In 1998, the KLA was described as a key player in the drugs for arms business in 1998, "helping to transport 2 billion USD worth of drugs annually into Western Europe". The KLA and other Albanian groups seem to utilize a sophisticated network of accounts and companies to process funds. In 1998, Germany froze two bank accounts belonging to the "United Kosova" organization after it had been discovered that several hundred thousand dollars had been deposited into those accounts by a convicted Kosovar Albanian drug trafficker.

The possibility of an Albanian/Kosovar drugs for arms connection is confirmed by at least two affairs in 1999:

-an Italian court in Brindisi (Italy) convicted an Albanian heroin trafficker who admitted obtaining weapons for the KLA from the Mafia in exchange for drugs.

-An Albanian individual placed orders in the Czech Republic for light infantry weapons and rocket systems. According to Czech police sources, the arms were bound for the KLA.

-Each KLA commander seems to have had funds at his disposal in order to be able to pay directly for weapons and ammunition for his local units’ need.

It is difficult to predict the further development of Albanian organized crime. Being a recent phenomenon, its stability is difficult to estimate. Nevertheless, future threats are realistic given the ruthlessness and lack of scruples displayed by Albanian crime groups, the international links which already exist, the professionalism which characterizes most of their activities and the strong ties created by ethnic Albanian origins. Moreover, the strong position of Albanian crime groups in Kosovo, F.Y.R.O.M. and the Albanian republic itself, is definitely a cause of concern to the international community, especially when one takes into account the geo-political instability in the region and the presence of a UN peacekeeping force.
The Albanian organized crime families, "The 15 Families" are not only tightly bound by ethnicity and family, but are an inherent trust network that stretches across the SE European Nations and serve as a conduit for drugs, illegal immigration, weapons and money laundering. Their contacts sweep through all the way to Russia and outwards to South America, Africa and even North America. As he had previously cited the connections between Algeria and Albania, a prime figure in transnational terrorism also showed up. Again, from Mr. Mutschke:
The events in Canada and the United States should be seen in a wider perspective. Indeed, intelligence shows that several Algerian terrorist leaders were present at a meeting in Albania, which could also have been attended by Usama bin Laden , who was believed to be in Albania at that time. It was during this meeting that many structures and networks were established for propaganda and fund raising activities, and for providing Algerian armed groups with logistical support. The arrest at the Canada-US border in December 1999 may indicate that the Algerian terrorists are prepared to take their terrorism campaign to North America.
This links the Afghanistan drug networks, al Qaeda and the European drug system together and provides a source of income for those operating that system. His presence there was known as seen in Expert Magazine, 30 AUG 1999, via Globalsecurity document cache:
In 1994 Saudi Arabia deprived bin Laden of his citizenship, compelling him to leave for Sudan together with his "Afghan veterans." In a bid to do the United States a favour, the government of Sudan ejected him in 1996. Bin Laden then returned to Afghanistan, dreaming to copy the Afghan model all over the Moslem world, first and foremost in the post-Soviet republics. A ramified war-veteran organisation, as well as prosperous enterprises, which provide jobs and money to such people, and which also effectively conceal their real-life activities, still operates in Sudan, constituting bin Laden's rearguard. Those undercover "veterans" have committed bloody outrages in Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Israel, Germany, Bosnia, Chechnya, Tajikistan, Kosovo, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen.

However, bin Laden's phone conversations on Afghan territory have been intercepted increasingly frequently over the last few months. Accordingly, bin Laden has begun to use couriers for communicating with his "veterans." Indeed, such couriers have handed over coded PC floppy disks in the course of some macabre death-relay race. But this practice has entailed less efficient management. Apart from that, bin Laden has become convinced that, given the current globalisation of NATO's police functions (he was particularly impressed with the war in Yugoslavia - Ed.), terrorist cells are unable to achieve any impressive successes in the Middle East, which is regarded as a strategic region by the West. In this situation, the seething Caucasus has become a rather attractive area for El Qaidah's militants.
You did know that Osama bin Laden used Kosovo and Albania as a centralized meeting point and a good area to set up training camps, right? Not just training camps, either, as the lucrative drug trade offers a funding source that is possibly third (behind oil funds from wealthy citizens or States) and donations for transnational terrorist groups. While getting 1% of the overall Balkans drug trade under the auspices of, say, al Qaeda, may seem meager that is a $4 billion/year proposition in transactional money. Add in a 'terrorist tax' of 10% and that is $400 million/year of ongoing and, indeed, increasing income as the use of narcotics increases annually.

This brings us to the next area of interest:

The Balkans - Bosnia

The influence of another State actor in Bosnia was first looked into during the 1990's as the UN arms embargo was not stopping the flow of arms into the region, which I covered in this post on Bosnia, previously. Rep. Lee Hamilton (D-IN) asked the State Dept. for its views and got them in a letter from Barbara Larkin, Acting Assistant Secretary, Legislative Affairs dated 20 MAY 1996, which he had put into the Congressional Record: June 11, 1996 (Extensions), DOCID:cr11jn96-22, THIRD-COUNTRY ARMS DELIVERIES TO BOSNIA AND CROATIA, which gives that actor and the problems it would bring:
How did the Administration assess the implications of such a policy change on international adherence to UN Security Council Resolution 713 and U.S. efforts to get friends and allies to stop trade, economic dealings, and investment ties with Iran? Iran's entry into the Bosnian conflict occurred long before the April 1994 decision. Iranian efforts to gain influence in Bosnia date back to the 1980s. They gained momentum in 1991-92, in the early stages of the war, when the international community proved unable to confront Serb aggression. During this period, despite the UN arms embargo, Iran established itself as Bosnia's principal arms supplier and dispatched hundreds of Revolutionary Guard and other personnel to assist in training Bosnian Government forces. Iranian military aid was part of a multi-pronged campaign of support that also included intelligence cooperation along with economic and humanitarian assistance. We have no evidence that Iran's presence in Bosnia increased significantly after April 1994. It is also worth noting that, through the Dayton Accords and subsequent diplomacy, we have reduced Iranian military influence in Bosnia to its lowest levels in years. The April 1994 decision had no discernable impact on U.S. efforts to gain international support for the use of economic pressure to alter Iran's objectionable behavior, including its support for terrorism and pursuit of weapons of mass destruction. Prior to 1994, our Allies had generally been unresponsive to our requests that they not provide Iran with economic benefits such as new official credits and loan guarantees. In the past year, however, following the President's decision to impose a trade and investment embargo against Iran, most European countries have substantially reduced the pace and volume of economic activity with Iran. We continue to urge European governments to join our efforts to pressure Iran economically. Based on our ongoing consultations, including the April 19 meeting in Rome of the U.S.-EU-Canada Working Group on Iran, we have concluded that the April 1994 decision has not significantly affected our Iran diplomacy.
This view would prove to be overoptimistic and based on faulty Intel, however. From the Joint Committee on Special Operations at Globalsecurity.org on Iranian Intelligence Operations updated 2005:
Iranian intelligence agencies are also mounting extensive operations in Bosnia to gather information and counter Western influence. As of late 1997 more than 200 Iranian agents have insinuated themselves into Bosnian Muslim political and social circles, and infiltrated the US program to train the Bosnian army. Iranian is collaborating with a pro-Iranian faction in Bosnia's intelligence service, the Agency for Investigation and Documentation. But Iran's intelligence operations extend far beyond the training program, and are aimed at influencing a broad range of Bosnian institutions.
Thus, not only was Iran *not* reducing its numbers in Bosnia, it was actually infiltrating *more* people into Bosnia than before, so the Clinton Administration not only didn't know the base of the trendline, but did not know its direction either, which was UP not DOWN.

And just what were they doing? Well, the fine folks at Globalsecurity.org also provide this bit from their Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty library, which is part of a series aired in 2005 about Iran's extensive backing of terrorism abroad:
Outside of the Middle East, Iran also appears to have sought to use its aid to Bosnia's Muslims during the conflict there to secretly train fundamentalist groups.Analyst Nima Rashedan said much of the evidence of such activities comes from documents seized by NATO forces in Bosnia."This is a case that happened in a place in Bosnia. Before the Dayton Accords and the presence of the United States and NATO in Bosnia, the Islamic Republic had sent groups to Bosnia, including the Revolutionary Guards' Qods Force, led by Mohammad Reza Shams Naqdi, and his deputy, Hossein Allahkaram, based near Sarajevo -- another group from the Intelligence Ministry -- who had set up a camp, training fundamentalists close to [Alija] Izetbegovic's Democratic Action Party, to establish the intelligence apparatus of Bosnia. Later, NATO attacked the camp and arrested a number of people, including Iranian intelligence officials. The most interesting point was the discovery of documents that were part of the curriculum for the training of Bosnian intelligence recruits by Iranians. Among the instructions in the texts were methods for killing opposition figures and silencing journalists. That is, the Intelligence Ministry instructed a foreign organization's members how to intimidate, hunt, kidnap, eliminate, and threaten the families and the financial sources of journalists," Rashedan said.
Yes, journalists do pay attention to their trade, but note that opposition leaders can and did (and do) get the exact, same treatment.

The reason for that change in quantity of Intel operatives is not only the ability to insinuate agents from Hezbollah and the Qods Force there, but the lucrative drug trade going through the Balkans. The same logic that works for al Qaeda a few years later also works for Hezbollah then. In fact the entire region, even *with* UN troops in Kosovo and Bosnia, would not stop terrorists from congregating there.

This short article from Pravda on 09 OCT 2002 has this on goings-on in Bosnia:
Islamic Fundamentalists from al-Qaida, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad Meet in Bosnia. An illegal meeting of Islamic fundamentalists from over 50 countries took place yesterday in the Bosnian town of Travnik, which is under the control of the Muslim-Croatian Federation. According to the law-enforcement authorities of Bosnia's Serbian Republic, the meeting included representatives of Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, the Muslim Brotherhood and Active Islamic Youth.According to representatives of the special forces of the Serbian Republic, al-Qaida radicals were in Travnik for two days, but neither the Bosnian police nor SFOR peacekeeping soldiers made any attempt to arrest them. In Travnik Islamic delegates reached an agreement on the 'full consolidation' of religious and political movements in the battle against 'American aggression'. According to Rosbalt's correspondent, over twenty Islamic radicals illegally entered Bosnia from Albania.
Quite the confab! Muslim Brotherhood (Islamic Jihad), Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad (most likely that of Imad Mugniyah's Hezbollah External Security Organization), and al Qaeda. And do note that they all entered from: Albania. This begins to tie the Balkans region together via these organizations from organized crime to Islamic terrorist groups. On 16 JAN 1997 the Republican Policy Committee in the US Senate would put out an editorial examining how the Clinton Administration allowed radical Islamic terrorism to move into the Balkans, particularly Bosnia. This from The Militant Islamic Network section:
The House Subcommittee report also concluded (page 2): "The Administration's Iranian green light policy gave Iran an unprecedented foothold in Europe and has recklessly endangered American lives and US strategic interests." Further -- " . . . The Iranian presence and influence [in Bosnia] jumped radically in the months following the green light. Iranian elements infiltrated the Bosnian government and established close ties with the current leadership in Bosnia and the next generation of leaders. Iranian Revolutionary Guards accompanied Iranian weapons into Bosnia and soon were integrated in the Bosnian military structure from top to bottom as well as operating in independent units throughout Bosnia. The Iranian intelligence service [VEVAK] ran wild through the area developing intelligence networks, setting up terrorist support systems, recruiting terrorist 'sleeper' agents and agents of influence, and insinuating itself with the Bosnian political leadership to a remarkable degree. The Iranians effectively annexed large portions of the Bosnian security apparatus [known as the Agency for Information and Documentation (AID)] to act as their intelligence and terrorist surrogates. This extended to the point of jointly planning terrorist activities. The Iranian embassy became the largest in Bosnia and its officers were given unparalleled privileges and access at every level of the Bosnian government." (page 201)

Not Just the Iranians

To understand how the Clinton green light would lead to this degree of Iranian influence, it is necessary to remember that the policy was adopted in the context of extensive and growing radical Islamic activity in Bosnia. That is, the Iranians and other Muslim militants had long been active in Bosnia; the American green light was an important political signal to both Sarajevo and the militants that the United States was unable or unwilling to present an obstacle to those activities -- and, to a certain extent, was willing to cooperate with them. In short, the Clinton Administration's policy of facilitating the delivery of arms to the Bosnian Muslims made it the de facto partner of an ongoing international network of governments and organizations pursuing their own agenda in Bosnia: the promotion of Islamic revolution in Europe. That network involves not only Iran but Brunei, Malaysia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Sudan (a key ally of Iran), and Turkey, together with front groups supposedly pursuing humanitarian and cultural activities. For example, one such group about which details have come to light is the Third World Relief Agency (TWRA), a Sudan-based, phoney humanitarian organization which has been a major link in the arms pipeline to Bosnia. ["How Bosnia's Muslims Dodged Arms Embargo: Relief Agency Brokered Aid From Nations, Radical Groups," Washington Post, 9/22/96; see also "Saudis Funded Weapons For Bosnia, Official Says: $300 Million Program Had U.S. 'Stealth Cooperation'," Washington Post, 2/2/96] TWRA is believed to be connected with such fixtures of the Islamic terror network as Sheik Omar Abdel Rahman (the convicted mastermind behind the 1993 World Trade Center bombing) and Osama Binladen, a wealthy Saudi emigre believed to bankroll numerous militant groups. [WP, 9/22/96] (Sheik Rahman, a native of Egypt, is currently in prison in the United States; letter bombs addressed to targets in Washington and London, apparently from Alexandria, Egypt, are believed connected with his case. Binladen was a resident in Khartoum, Sudan, until last year; he is now believed to be in Afghanistan, "where he has issued statements calling for attacks on U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf." [WP, 9/22/96])
These were and are relatively well known organizations and figures operating in that region for the express purpose of not only shifting to a new base of operations but to ensure that it had indigenous funding. This would be done through the radicalization of local politics, namely the Party of Democratic Action (SDA) in the Bosnian government. Such figures as Alija Izetbegovic, Hasan Cengic, and Dzemal Merdan are cited in the report as being supporters of radical Islamic concepts for governing and the overthrow of non-Muslim governments. For that window of time, starting in the early 1990's and going on for nearly a decade, the leaders in Bosnia had ties to radical Islamic groups and sought the aid and arming by them. A Cybercast News Service report by Sherrie Gossett on 17 AUG 2005 would look at the problems of Bosnia and the groups it attracts:
Terrorists who previously targeted the U.S. are now in Bosnia, where they have access to a "one-stop shop" of jihad training camps, weapons and illegal Islamic "charities" -- all at the doorstep of Europe, terrorism experts said. "[Convicted terrorist] Karim Said Atmani recently returned to Bosnia after being released early from French prison for 'good behavior,'" terrorism expert and author Evan Kohlmann said.Atmani, a Moroccan, was linked to the "millennium bomb plot" and convicted by a French court of colluding with Osama bin Laden. He has been linked to the Armed Islamic Group (GIA), an organization responsible for airplane hijackings and subway bombings in France.

[..]

Also finding haven in Bosnia is Abu el Maali, who like Atmani, was a foreign national who fought in the Bosnia war. El Maali was later accused by French authorities of attempting to smuggle explosives in 1998 to an Egyptian terrorist group plotting to destroy U.S. military installations in Germany. He was also accused of leading terrorist cells in Bosnia, Pakistan and Afghanistan."This activity is very significant," said Kohlmann. "Senior members of the former Muslim Brigade and their top commanders are still there, and they're still active."

The Al-Haramain Islamic Foundation (AHF), a charity that was later found by the U.S. Treasury to be underwriting terrorist operations including al Qaeda, shut its offices in Bosnia after the U.S. announcement but reopened under the name "Vazir." The new organization was registered as an "association for sport, culture and education."In 2002, the U.S. Treasury Department reported that the Bosnia office of Al-Haramain was linked to Al-Gama'at al-Islamiyya, an Egyptian terrorist group that was a signatory to bin Laden's Feb. 23, 1998, fatwa -- or religious edict -- against the United States.

[..]

Christopher Brown, research associate with the Transitions to Democracy Project at the Hudson Institute, echoed the report. "A lot of these camps are very mobile," he said. "Bosnia has a lot of rugged territory where such camps can be set up temporarily."

The idea that there are no jihadist camps in Bosnia and radical Islam has not gained any foothold there, as some analysts suggest, is "ridiculous," according to Brown. He points to the raising of two Waffen-SS divisions under the encouragement of the mufti of Jerusalem during World War II, up to the spread of Wahhabism by the Saudis beginning in the 1960s and 1970s."Al Qaeda cells were set up in Bosnia in the early 1990s by Ayman al Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's right-hand man, and bin Laden was said to visit the area twice in the mid-1990s," Brown added. "Iran was very involved in supporting the Islamist separatist movement in Bosnia, and Hezbollah was doing training there in the 1990s."Training also takes place inside youth centers and school gyms, according to Trifunovic.

[..]

"Only a very small minority of Bosnians are attracted to this," said Kohlmann. "This is primarily a foreign phenomenon -- mostly consisting of Syrians, Egyptians and Algerians."
Although later in the article views that the attempt to graft jihad onto politics has been seen as a failure in Bosnia, the ability to train small cadres of men, particularly young men, on a mobile base concept is one that cannot be discounted.

The connection between terrorism and narcotics is examined by Ioannis Michaletos on his Serbianna blog, giving a reprint from a 2001 article by Marcia Christoff Kurop in the WSJ:
The overnight rise of heroin trafficking through Kosovo — now the most important Balkan route between Southeast Asia and Europe after Turkey — helped also to fund terrorist activity directly associated with al Qaeda and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Opium poppies, which barely existed in the Balkans before 1995, have become the No. 1 drug cultivated in the Balkans after marijuana. Operatives of two al Qaeda-sponsored Islamist cells who were arrested in Bosnia on Oct. 23 were linked to the heroin trade, underscoring the narco-jihad culture of today’s post-war Balkans.

These drug rings in turn form part of an estimated $8 billion a year Taliban annual income from global drug trafficking, predominantly in heroin. According to Mr. Bodansky, the terrorism expert, bin Laden administers much of that trade through Russian mafia groups for a commission of 10% to 15% — or around $1 billion annually.

The settling of Afghan-trained mujahideen in the Balkans began around 1992, when recruits were brought into Bosnia by the ruling Islamic party of Bosnia, the Party of Democratic Action, from Chechnya, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, as well as Italy, Germany and Turkey. They were all given journalists’ credentials to avoid explicit detection by the West. Others were married immediately to Bosnian Muslim women and incorporated into regular army ranks.

Intelligence services of the Nordic-Polish SFOR (previously IFOR) sector alerted the U.S. of their presence in 1992 while the number of mujahideen operating in Bosnia alone continued to grow from a few hundred to around 6,000 in 1995. Though the Clinton administration had been briefed extensively by the State Department in 1993 on the growing Islamist threat in former Yugoslavia, little was done to follow through.

The Bosnian Embassy in Vienna issued a passport to bin Laden in 1993, according to various reports in the Yugoslav press at the time. The reports add that bin Laden then visited a terrorist camp in Zenica, Bosnia in 1994. The Bosnian government denies all of this, but admits that some passport records have been lost. Around that time, bin Laden directed al Qaeda “senior commanders” to incorporate the Balkans into an complete southeastern approach to Europe, an area stretching from the Caucasus to Italy. Al Zawahiri, the Egyptian surgeon reputed to be the second in command of the entire al Qaeda network, headed up this southeastern frontline.

By 1994, major Balkan terrorist training camps included Zenica, and Malisevo and Mitrovica in Kosovo. Elaborate command-and-control centers were further established in Croatia, and Tetovo, Macedonia as well as around Sofia, Bulgaria, according to the U.S. Congress’s task force on terrorism. In Albania, the main training camp included even the property of former Albanian premier Sali Berisha in Tropje, Albania, who was then very close to the Kosovo Liberation Army.

Not even stalwart NATO ally Turkey escaped the network. Areas beyond government control were also visited by bin Laden in 1996 according to London-based Jane’s Intelligence Review. The government has been battling two terrorist groups: Jund al Islam, whose assassinated Syrian leader was one of bin Laden’s closets confidantes, and the Kurdish PKK, whose leader, Abdullah Ocalan, merged his group’s activities with those of Iran’s Hezbollah in 1998.

Furthermore, as revealed in the February 2001 East Africa bombing trial testimony of Jamal al Fadl — an al Qaeda operative in charge of weapons development in Sudan — uranium used in “dirty bombs” that release lethal radioactive material, had been tested in 1994 by members of the Sudan-based Islamic National Front in the town of Hilat Koko, in Turkish-held northern Cyprus. Cyprus, both its north and southern sides, has also become a center for offshore money laundering by Arab banks fronting al Qaeda funds into the Balkans. The CIA puts al Qaeda’s specific Balkan-directed funds — those tied to the “humanitarian” agencies and local banks and not explicitly counting the significant drug profits added to that — at around $500 million to $700 million between 1992 and 1998.

So where was the U.S. in all this? It was not until 1995 that the Clinton administration was forced to start pursuing the Islamist network in the Balkans. Not quite a month after the Dayton accords had been signed in November 1995, an influx of Iranian arms came into Bosnia with the apparent tacit approval of the administration, in violation of U.N. sanctions. While publicly pressing Bosnian President Alia Izebegovic to purge remaining Islamist elements, the administration was loath to confront Sarajevo and Tehran over their presence.

Instead, Islamist groups went quietly underground as the windfall of weapons landed in their hands. They later joined up with a new Islamist center in Sofia established as a kind of rear guard by the al Zawahiri. Following the Zagreb arrest and extradition of renowned Egyptian militant Faud Qassim, an al Zawahiri favorite, the Sofia-based militants planned the deployment in Bosnia of terrorists capable of planning and leading possible major terrorist strikes against U.S. and SFOR facilities, according to al Fadl’s testimony to the House Task Force on Terrorism.

Islamist infiltration of the Kosovo Liberation Army advanced, meanwhile. Bin Laden is said to have visited Albania in 1996 and 1997, according to the murder-trial testimony of an Algerian-born French national, Claude Kader, himself an Afghanistan-trained mujahideen fronting at the Albanian-Arab Islamic Bank. He recruited some Albanians to fight with the KLA in Kosovo, according to the Paris-based Observatoire Geopolitique des Drogues.
This is, obviously, not the sort of concept one wants to start in the Balkans: the growing of the opium crop introduced by Afghan Islamic jihadist veterans so as to further fund and grow networks in the region. To understand how Islamic radicals got into this business, we can turn to an article by Darko Trifunovic at International Analyst Network from 20 JAN 2007 -Terrorism and Organized Crime in South-eastern Europe:
Heroin and other substances are abundant in BH – in restaurants, cafees, schools, universities – and general dissatisfaction with quality of life has enabled the crime syndicates to recruit users and pushers among the youth.

This recent situation is being exploited by various Islamic fundamentalist terrorist organizations in BH. During the civil war, some of the Muslim military commanders were petty criminals such as Ramiz Delalic – CELO1 (deputy commander, 9th Motorised Brig.), Ismet Bajramovic – CELO (Military police commander2), Musan Topalovic – CACO3 and Jusuf -Juka Prazina4. Also, members of the mentioned group are: Sead Becirevic-Sejo, Zulfikar Alic-Zuka (Military commander of the terrorist unit call Black Swans) and Bojadzic Nihat, former officer of the R BiH Army. Political support to this group secure on of the prominent Muslim politician in Sarajevo Mr.Ejup Ganic and Mr.Haris Silajdzic. Haris Silajdzic are the actual member of the B-H Presidency. His sister Salidza Silajdzic is married in Iran, presumably to a high rank officer of the VEVAK, and his brother Husref Silajdzic is thought to be a secret agent of the Pakistani Intelligence Service (ISI). New information speak about the fact that Haris Silajdzic is trying to restart the work of “Patriot League”.5 The center of “Patriot League” is to be in Sarajevo with General Vahid Karavelic as its head. They used patriotism as a cover for their criminal activities during the war.
Afterwards, however, a portion of the Muslim population in BH replaced nationalism with a new ideology of Islamic fundamentalism. Islamic fundamentalists with a criminal background have substantial advantages in BH:1. fast and easy access to weapons and explosives; 2. in-depth knowledge of smuggling routes; 3. connections with corrupt officials and politicians; 4. influence in local media and NGOs; 5. connections with a large diaspora in the US and western Europe
Terrorist networks have seized upon these advantages of local criminals-turned-Islamic fundamentalists, creating a new model of terrorist funding.
Yes, they killed their way into the business or used 'converts' to supply them with credentials to get into it. Those initial connections dating back to the early 1990's for Iran and al Qaeda (or what was to become al Qaeda) allowed for the seeding of a much larger problem of 'separate' Islamic communities now festering in Bosnia. And because the war there destroyed so many records, these 'imports' can claim any number of things to stay there and claim 'citizenship', even if they do not deserve it.

The type of terrorism that represents this is two-fold:

A) Local - Use of threats, intimidation and bribery to gain power over local communities or subvert law enforcement.

B) Regional/Global - The use of overseas emigres to establish narcotics, theft, radical and terror cells and continue the supply chain of those things outwards.

Thus, from the UN Mission in Kosovo, seeing news round-ups that mention local terrorist cells or narcotics busts, like this one from 06 JAN 2003, is not surprising:
Police try to find killers of three Rugova's party officials

PRISTINA, Jan 5 (Tanjug) - Police in Pristina said on Sunday that the killers of three ethnic Albanians, who had formerly been KLA members and were Ibrahim Rugova's Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) officials until their death, had not been arrested yet.

One of the KLA commanders, Tahir Zemaj, his son Emif and their relative Hasan Zemaj were killed near the Druri complex in Pec late on Saturday. Police said that the victims' car had been ambushed and that the identity of the killer(s) was unknown, despite the fact that several witnesses had been taken in.


Yugoslav police seize 44 kilos of heroin at Bulgarian border

BELGRADE, Jan 5 (AFP) - Yugoslav police on Sunday seized 44 kilograms of heroin, hidden in a car, at the Bulgarian border, the Beta news agency reported.

Two Bulgarian nationals were arrested when customs officials found the drugs, worth more than two million euros (dollars), hidden in a fake seat of the vehicle, the agency quoted local customs chief Ivan Dencev as saying.

The two Bulgarians said they had been en route to Germany, the agency said. The border between Yugoslavia and Bulgaria is on the main Balkans drug smuggling route from central Asia to western Europe.


Bosnia presents report on arms factory's illegal trade with Iraq

Sarajevo/Banja Luka (dpa) - Bosnian Serb President Dragan Cavic on Saturday presented a report on the illegal export of military components to Iraq by a Bosnian Serb factory.

Speaking at a press conference in the Bosnian Serb capital Banja Luka, Cavic said that the 1,614 page report confirmed that the Bosnian Serb Orao factory was in severe breach of the United Nations arms embargo against Iraq.The Orao affair started in October 2002 after the NATO-led Stabilisation Force (SFOR) in Bosnia, following U.S. intelligence reports, conducted an unannounced search of Orao premises in the northern Bosnian Serb town of Bijeljina, finding evidence of the company's illegal trade with Iraq.

The evidence showed that the Orao factory was providing Iraq with spare parts needed to refurbish Soviet-era MiG 21 combat aircraft.

According to Cavic, an investigation launched last year discovered that the cooperation between Orao and Iraq started in 1997.

He said the Bosnian Serb civil authorities had not known about the illegal trade, but some high-positioned Bosnian Serb Army officers were directly involved in it.

The main organiser of the trade between Bosnian Serbs and Iraq was Yugoslav company Jugoimport.

Cavic said there were indications that companies from the Bosnian Moslem-Croat Federation, Yugoslavia and Croatia were also involved in illegal weapon trade with Iraq.
From low level terrorist 'hits' to narcotics busts to illegal arms supplies going to Saddam in Iraq, the entire gamut of terrorism melding with organized crime is seen in a single week's report from the region. This sort of thing continues on with $3.5 million in heroin stopped in Croatia on 16 JAN 2008 (UPI via NewsDaily) and the general feeling is summed up in this working paper on Human Security in Europe by Bojan Dobovsek:
Everything mentioned above lead us to the conclusion that in Bosnia and Herzegovina there is a lack of official data on organised crime. Meanwhile, established new state institutions and an increasing number of young criminologists are guarantee that in Bosnia the similar researches will be provided and its number will increase. Many Bosnia and Herzegovina’s journals have been saying “there is nothing organized in Bosnia (not even one citizen’s element including nature, industry, sport, culture etc.) and it is nothing functioning as good as organised crime”. Every citizen who just one time a day watch TV news or read first page in newspaper or listen radio will notice how important and actual is the organized crime’s phenomenon. Many citizens are asking them selves why such big actuality of these phenomenon. The answer is coming out from rumours that: Bosnia is an after-war transit country, its politic power is present in the field of sport, culture and in the police, the country is divided into many cantons, smaller provinces, has not unique police who is working together over the whole country` s territory. It is not possible to precisely affirm what is the main reason for increasing development of organized crime but it seems to be rumour that police is not unique and it is not working like one, together over the whole territory. Beside that, powerful thesis is also the one, which has been written in the political magazine “Dani”, nb. 407, 11.4.2005 where president of court Branko Peric said: “Every country has own its own mafia, but our mafia has its country.”15
And that is a problem as that organized crime also has an Islamic radical tinge to it that continues to work its way outwards, like with the trial of 15 Wahabi terrorist suspects in Serbia that came into Bosnia during the civil war and then continued to train there afterwards (AKI 14 JAN 2008). And from a HUMSEC working paper by Dejan Anastasijevic, we can see the outlines of terrorism, narcotics, arms production/supply and money transfers between the Balkans, Libya, Argentina, South Africa and further outwards.

That should round out part II for now, more to follow as I am able to compile it, but the overall concept of the GWOT involves much more than just terrorism and is linked to some of the most intractable problems of humankind that have plagued Nations for centuries.

16 January 2008

The new fronts in the Global War on Terrorism - Part I

The following I started before my recent computer troubles... consider it to be Part I.

As I have characterized the state of global conditions as seen in the war on terrorism, we are currently in a phase of war where the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq are purely defensive measures to shore up two Nations intimately involved with terrorism: Afghanistan under the Taliban was home to training camps for al Qaeda's distributed network of terror organizations as well as ones from Pakistan, Kashmir, and parts of Africa; Iraq was initiated to remove an unreliable government of a Nation that had openly used chemical weapons and was implicated in the research of bioweapons and nuclear capability (both radiological and atomic devices), plus hosted a wide range of terror organizations that spanned the political spectrum although concentrating on Arab ones.

In the post-9/11 world the United States would not abide by these two Nations that each had given cause to be attacked. Afghanistan by harboring outlaw radical Islamic terrorists that had attacked the US was seen as aiding and abetting them. Iraq by not abiding to its cease-fire agreements to cease firing at coalition forces, openly demonstrate the removal of all WMD programs from research and development to deployed systems, and by undermining the sanctions regime meant to curb those programs, had given sufficient cause for it to become a target of attack.

Today with Iraq shifting towards reconciliation between its internal tribes and political organizations and by fielding a multi-ethnic, multi-religious military capacity that is accountable to government, has felt the destruction of al Qaeda and Iran and had enough of it. Afghanistan, in a culturally and geographically more difficult area is making progress, but that will be a slow-go due to external political and tribal problems. In strategic terms Iraq has been significantly shored up to help stabilize the center of the Middle East and Afghanistan is fighting an attrition war against those that would destabilize it, with arms from the coalition providing some societal buffer to the ongoing attacks by various factions.

These conflicts were aimed at stemming the tide of radical Islamic terrorism in those areas and has succeeded.

al Qaeda has been working on a counter-offensive that has been taking some time to become apparent and has opened up new fronts in this conflict, by having seeded multiple organizations globally, it is now exploiting those in an attempt to expand this conflict. The initial phases of those started before 9/11 and the US started to address them in the 'forgotten fronts' of the GWOT.


Philippines

This COIN conflict has gone almost unreported in the Western Media, and my thanks to Long Wars Journal for sending B. A. Patty there to report on this conflict (First Report, Second Report, Third Report). In this series of reports we get an overview of the history of the Philippines and the work of separating out the local insurgents (the Moros and their MNLF) from the more international form (al Qaeda's Abu Sayyaf). These two are tightly intertwined in Mindanao, and the history of the previous US COIN work at the start of the 20th century is still a remembered item amongst the local population. Here local issues drive the insurgency and how to address it is seen in this section from Part I:

The battles between the AFP and Abu Sayyaf and MNLF make the papers, but they miss the real story of the counterinsurgency in the Philippines. The real story is the movement of the populace away from support for conflict and toward a support for the peace processes. This has followed “a shift in strategy since April,” according to Raphael, to focus on what are called civil military operations, which focus on dealing with problems afflicting the people. “A lot of the villages have insufficient water,” the general said. “They have no schools. We are doing massive infrastructure projects.” Acting in cooperation with the JSOTF-P, the AFP have held numerous meetings at which medical treatment is provided to anyone who showed up, with any problem that could be handle in the field. The AFP has built schools and community centers.

[..]

The stick-and-carrot strategy is so successful that even the separatists are finding themselves pressed by it. Khaled Musa, a deputy chairman of MILF, said in April that the civilian military operations were “more lethal than brute force.” While he said that it could not end his insurgency – “Dedicated and rightly guided revolutionaries do not expect material rewards for sacrificing everything dear to them” – he also noted that the tactic reminded him of the collapse affecting the MNLF prior to its 1996 peace agreement, when “practically everybody surrendered to the government.”
Concentrating on civic work while countering insurgents is a recurrent theme in COIN, and necessarily so: without trust in stable and local government insurgency will flourish. Here concentrating on the MNLF, which is the older and local insurgent group, allows for the Abu Sayyaf outside group to be marginalized. As more territory settles differences with the MNLF, Abu Sayyaf has less room to work in and slowly becomes an external, disruptive presence that brings no good with it.

This COIN work has been going on for more than a decade and has rendered the original Moro Islamic Liberation Front into more amenable splinters, like the MNLF. That 'half-life' of COIN is a generally understood concept, that within 8-12 years half of the insurgency is rendered incapable of fighting or unwilling to fight, or they have been driven out and local society has become a barrier to them. Here the 1996 peace treaty caused the original group to settle and factions that were more radical splintered from it and allied with Abu Sayyaf. While towns and villages harbored MNLF they would also harbor Abu Sayyaf. Thus the course to settle local problems in fair administration and creating infrastructure (water, power, schools, sewage treatment) yields less reason for the MNLF to continue and a growing animosity to Abu Sayyaf that tries to destroy such infrastructure to keep the local population intimidated.

In the Philippines this is a long, hard task due to climate, lack of existing infrastructure and the remoteness of some of the islands involved. Still, the basics of COIN work to stop the bloodshed and create viable means for self-support remain primary drivers, and moving to get economic activity along with political buy-in work hand-in-hand with military affairs. In such an area getting self-reliant society functional that sees National government as a help, not a hindrance, is key. Often cultural animosities going back decades or even centuries need to be addressed and settled to end such insurgent campaigns.


Somalia

The successful work of the Ethiopian Army, and the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia along with US air cover (UAV,conventional air interdiction of ground forces and stopping of seaborne resupply) against the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) has met with success to the point of driving them to Eritrea. This was necessary due to the increasing lethality of the organization (also known as Shabab) with the help of a leader released in Kenya in FEB 2007 (Source: The Long War Journal) Sharif Ahmed. No real idea is given as to why he was released from Kenya, save for some possible US pressure. The Christian Science Monitor may hold a bit of insight in this 13 FEB 2007 article on Somalis fleeing to Yemen written by Ginny Hill:
The latest arrival, deputy ICU leader Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, flew from Nairobi, Kenya, to Sanaa last Thursday, as a guest of the Yemeni government. Sheikh Sharif joins the ICU 's foreign affairs spokesman, Ibrahim Adow, and two other ICU moderates who have been living under Yemeni protection in the southern port of Aden for more than a month.

One month after Somali and Ethiopian troops ousted Somalia's Islamists in a two-week offensive, groups tied to the Islamists are stepping up deadly guerrilla attacks across Somalia. And while an insurgency appears to be gathering steam, the US and its regional allies are hoping to co-opt individual leaders from within the ranks of the ICU 's diverse and scattered leadership to bolster the weak and faltering transitional government. Washington is targeting popular figures without links to terrorism who still command a strong following among many Somalis – and chief among them is Sheikh Sharif.

"The inclusion of the ICU moderates is the only way to stabilize Somalia," says François Grignon, director of the International Crisis Group's Africa Program.

The quartet of ICU moderates now based in Yemen are viewed as central to creation of a future inclusive government in Somalia with a wide, stable power base. Their endorsement is also seen as crucial to the successful deployment of African Union peacekeepers. But, first, this core group must agree to a strategy among themselves in order to present a united front at multiparty peace talks.

"Sheikh Sharif is here as part of our efforts to encourage the moderate Somali Islamists to participate in dialogue with the transitional government," says Yemen's Foreign Minister, Abu Bakr al-Qirbi. "We are hoping he will attend Somalia's National Reconciliation Conference, as soon as the parties agree on a date."
That would not work out so well as the ICU would head back to Somalia soon afterwards.

Now as to this claim of being a 'moderate', Mr. Ahmed is seen giving that credential a bit of a working out in this BBC article of 22 JAN 2007:
During the six months they controlled Mogadishu, the Islamic courts were divided between moderates and hardliners, with Mr Ahmed viewed as the moderate leader.

Before the end of Islamist rule, the hardliners seemed to have gained the upper hand and Mr Ahmed also toughened his rhetoric, especially over the presence of Ethiopian troops alongside government forces.

At one point, he declared a Jihad (holy war) against Ethiopia and urged all Somalis to join the battle.

A few weeks later, however, he was on the run before giving himself up to the Kenyans.

Nevertheless, the US and the UN are urging the government to seek reconciliation with moderates such as Mr Ahmed.
Yes, one of those moderate jihadis!

He then resurfaced after the ICU was ousted from Mogadishu, as seen by this al-Reuters article of 05 DEC 2007 at boston.com:
In Eritrea, Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, chairman of the opposition Alliance For the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) and considered a relative moderate among the Islamist movement, scoffed at the new prime minister's call for dialogue.

"Our problem is not with the old prime minister or the new prime minister. Our problem is Ethiopia's occupation," he said.

Ahmed's Islamist courts' movement ruled Mogadishu for six months last year, until it was routed by Ethiopia's army backing forces from the interim Somali government.

Hardline Islamists have led an insurgency against the government and Ethiopian troops throughout 2007.
Yes this has shifted from standard, open warfare to COIN, just as happened in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Caroline Glick at the Jerusalem Post looks a bit at the ICU in Eritrea with an article on 10 DEC 2007 (h/t Pamela at Atlas Shrugs):
THE SENIOR ICU leadership, including Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys and Sheikh Sharif Ahmed have received safe haven in Eritrea. In September, the exiled ICU leadership held a nine-day conference in the Eritrean capital of Asmara where they formed the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia headed by Ahmed.

Eritrean President-for-life Isaias Afwerki declared his country's support for the insurgents stating, "The Eritrean people's support to the Somali people is consistent and historical, as well as a legal and moral obligation."

Although touted in the West as a moderate, Ahmed has openly supported jihad and terrorism against Ethiopia, Kenya and the West. Aweys, for his part, is wanted by the FBI in connection with his role in the bombing of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998.
Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys is a military leader in the organization al-Ittihaad al-Islami (AIAI) (Source: TKB) and a listed associate of al Qaeda at the UN, as well as being the leader of the ICU. Thus, by the end of 2007, the ICU would be greatly fragment, but still continuing an insurgency struggle. In this the ICU has recruited foreign fighters, funds and equipment from (Source: Wikipedia: Arab nations (Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Syria, Iraq), non-Arab Middle Eastern and African Nations (Kenya, Iran, Eritrea, Djibouti), other Nations (Russia) as well as other terrorist groups (al Qaeda, Hezbollah).

In particular Kenya's Garissa district has seen recruiting of youths with $400 payments to join the jihad in Somalia, and the resultant loss of life raised an outcry (Source: The Standard (Kenya)). For those following the preceding Kenya articles, this district turned out heavily for ODM and Raila Odinga (Source: NFDOnline) in the recent DEC 2007 elections. Ensuring that the ICU is routed in Somalia, then, requires a concentration by its neighbors to ensure that these forces do not have a chance to recover. Unfortunately with support coming across the Gulf of Aden from Yemen, Djibouti and Eritrea being supply sources or active havens (respectively) and active recruitment capability in Kenya, that may not be an easy thing to do. Working with Ethiopia is vital due to the long border and geography: utilizing C4I from there helps to coordinate overwatch of events between ground forces to counter insurgent forces.


The Balkans - Kosovo

I have previously looked at the problems of Kosovo and will use this as a chance to recap.

Kosovo has seen an influx of Saudi and Wahhabi influence in the way of cash and personnel that have slowly been inculcating themselves into the local Muslim population. This has seen the desecration of historical sites, including Ottoman Empire Mosques, as the radical imams and their followers work to deface the history of that area. While the KLA changed its name, the commander of it, Agim Ceku would come to prominence as Prime Minister until early this year. The reason that is important is that he was linked to Osama bin Laden during his time as commander in the KLA. He has been replaced by Hashim Thaci, the former political leader of the KLA (Source: BBC 09 JAN 2008).

As the KLA was supported by bin Laden and al Qaeda, and has helped bring in Wahhabists that have set up terror cells to attack Serbia, this cannot be seen as 'moderating' influence. The continued presence of such outside actors and their funds attacking local populations and culture is not an indicator of success in COIN or in driving out radical elements. While the leadership may have distanced itself from the extremist side of Islam the bloodshed, while lower, continues across borders with Bosnia and Serbia and now comes more directly from radical sources. Success in Kosovo is ensuring that radical Islamic terrorists do not find a home there and that, sadly, is far from the case today.

15 January 2008

Temporarily Offline

The lovely world of computer problems and a disk going belly-up is sidelining me.

I may still be able to get some posts done off of my laptop... always have multiple systems available when something seriously goes wrong, you never know when you will need an operational spare.

Time to resolution more than one day and less than one week with a bit of luck.

In theory this should be a quick resolution, but I am too familiar with practice to count on that, yes the Theory and Practice conundrum strikes once more!

14 January 2008

Observing the observations on the observe on observations

H/t to Instapundit pointing out this piece by Stephen Bainbridge while he looks at Andrew Sullivan's observations on 'the surge'. And I didn't read the piece by AS, so the actual ability of myself to stay on-point is questionable, at best! I started to address some things that I have addressed before, and verbiage started to flow.

The comment wouldn't fit in the space provided.

It is not elegant unlike that claimed by Fermat.

So, without further adieu or spell checking of any sort, nor any other organization than on-the-fly commentary, here is my commentary on a piece of observation on an observer's observations of another observer observing:

One need not look only at Vietnam - that conflict was, itself, an eerie mirror of the US occupation of Haiti 1915-34. That analysis done at the USMC Staff College in 1995, points out how failures in addressing civic needs and in having a non-partisan outlook at home towards meeting goals is a requirement for COIN work. We are trying to avoid the mistakes of Haiti, and their dark mirror repeat in Vietnam, by *not* investing everything in National government. If America believes in the concept of 'federalism' (not this three state strangeness supported by Leftists) that inter-accountability of government to other, and more local, government is necessary, then the foundation of Iraq is *not* National government, but provincial and local government. First National governments serve as a framework to allow these other forms to fully stand up and function, and that is something the US missed totally in Haiti, Vietnam, the Balkans and Somalia.
'Getting a lid' on the problem soon becomes the only and over-riding concern and soon the entirety of the object of such a war. It also has a problem: it doesn't work. Part of the wash/rinse/repeat cycle of USMC involvement in small wars became the replacement of one noxious actor with another noxious actor who would favor the US. While we would press forward for democracy, as was done in Haiti, the concept of it by local authorities often differs, and harshly, from what we think it is. Democracy is *not* a top-down system, so starting at the *top* is a holding action after a war if the goal is to get democratic reform and civil society to back it started at the lowest level.

COIN becomes successful when the lowest levels of society are self-accountable (town, village, neighborhood) and are given time to understand the tools of civic protection and management. By helping in *both* realms the local, civil society sees success especially in self-protection against violent killers seeking to destroy their society and impose authoritarian or dictatorial rule. By being the friend of democracy and civil accountability the responsibility for it can be handed off with some minimal supervision and support.

There were very low levels of correlation between Iraq and, say, the Malay or Algerian experience, but a number of worries that showed up when the American political class did not have the tools to understand this. These very same politicians, due to incumbancy, had seen failures in the Balkans, Somalia, Afghanistan (the rise of the Taliban), Sudan and a few of them all the way back to Lebanon and Iran. By not being willing to learn from mistakes previously done, the ability to repeat them became ominous: a cycle of misunderstanding what democracy *is* was leading to a failure in supporting foreign policy to ensure that it spread after wartime.

That is how we got these 'benchmarks': federal level politicians who have faced no real democracy problems in holding their seats for decades now feel that federal, and therefore national level, government is the be-all, end-all of all government. That does not get you democracy nor support of liberty: those things come from self-awareness and self-responsibility to ensure civil society exists at the local level.

The disturbing part is the buy-in by so many to 'benchmarks' at a National level only and the unwillingness to recognize that democracy is *local*. What is up with that? Are we, as a Nation, so unwilling to look at our failures in post-war eras... no, scratch that... are we so unwilling to look at *any* other post-war era beyond WWII and Vietnam that we have gained a myopic view of what democracy is and how it is kept?

We could look at our own Revolutionary period (1775-89) and see that our very first attempt to establish National government via the Articles of Confederation *failed*. A number of States were also in near dissolution due to folks like the Shaysites and the draconian confiscation of farms to pay for the US debt. How about the Philippine-American war experience, a successful COIN operation that, to this day, still has some folks in Mindanao a bit upset at us that they did not get their own Republic out of the deal? How about Haiti, where so much was done right up to the point where things went seriously wrong because we did not establish localized rule beyond the National government? Some lessons learned from these three post-war periods would teach us greater lessons in what to do and what not to do if we had a cultural memory of them. How about the problems of the Reconstruction Era after the US Civil War? There are deep and hard lessons in democracy and culture to learn from that, if we ever bothered to examine it. On a nastier scale how about the repeated inability to deal with the Balkans from 1918 onwards? Well, really, there you have to go back to Macedonia under Philip to understand the problems, but even the modern era examination of the post-Ottoman occupation leaves many valuable lessons in absolutely, positively what *not* to do.

If the US can properly help the people of Iraq and Afghanistan to understand that the roots of democracy are local, and that being able to accomodate begins there, also, and that government is to be held accountable to the people and society, we just might have a successful outcome. And it will point out that the ordinary citizen soldier has a far better grasp of democracy and accountability than our political class... which is not a formula for long term stability in the US. Our performance in these conflicts is demonstrating the trust we place in our fellow citizens and the distrust by the political class at the federal level in those very same individuals who represent the people of the Nation on the battlefield and afterwards.
I can either comment or I can write... and with a bit of luck I can sometimes turn the commentary into something better.

This is not one of those times.

10 January 2008

The other source of change in Kenyan politics

This is a second piece on Kenyan politics, with the first here.

The third piece is here.

From Kenya Imagine, 14 NOV 2007, article by John Victor Ogot "Does Dick Morris matter?":

The UKIP is most often defined as the better-educated arm of the BNP, the fascistic British National Party. Profoundly racist and advocating an obdurate nationalism and the expulsion of foreigners, the UKIP advocates the closing of the UK's borders to immigrants and for the UK's withdrawal from the EU. Tame enough you might say, but linked here are some of the choicer statement's made by the party's officials while Dick Morris advised them in a zero-to-hero performance at the 2004 elections.

Raila's supporters in NAMLEF may want to ask what their chosen candidate is doing with a man who advised a party that won an election by having its most prominent candidate Robert Kilroy-Silk write in the Daily Express,

"They [Muslims] are backward and evil and if it is racist to say so... then racist I must be - and happy and proud, to be so". He has written on the pages of the same paper claiming "Muslims everywhere behave with equal savagery."
Nigel Farrage, the leader of the party's contingent to the European Parliament is quoted in the Mail on Sunday referring to black people as ‘niggers' ,adding
"We will never win the nigger vote. The nig-nogs will never vote for us."
It is impossible to say whether Morris is merely guilty by association or holds these views, it being clear that he will work for almost anyone. His work in Romania and the Ukraine was for parties that were pro-Europe and in the UK he worked for an anti-European party. What is startling about the trip to Kenya is the fact that it has been announced as pro-bono work even though Norris has left a previous engagement to take this one up. Is it reasonable to believe that he left paid employment in the USA to rush to Kenya to help in an electoral race? What is in this election for Dick Morris, or for whoever sent him?

There has been a disturbingly high level of involvement by the American government and allied concerns in this election. It is not clear what is going on yet, but the involvement of foreign powers in internal Kenyan politics does not bode well for our future. To illustrate, Ukraine's much famed revolution, which Morris was intimately involved with begun to unravel after less than a year. Its leaders were never revolutionary. They were instead a cabal of determined oligarchs who had picked the USA and Europe as their international backers against the Russian-backed government. The clouds indicate a similar forecast; Kibaki's policy of non-alignment seems to have rubbed some governments up the wrong way even as it has long been clear that exclusive ties with the West are harmful to Kenya. It is our sovereign right that we can look East or West when we feel that need without being tied in to a particular power, and no amount of chicanery will dissuade us from this path.

Joining the dots, it seems that Dick Morris really does matter. Now the people must demand of Raila Odinga and the ODM an explanation for his involvement in the campaign for the bride's hand. His presence in the party as an advisor shows either a desire to inaugurate a campaign of dirty tricks or that we are being taken over from the outside by unknown forces.
Does this sound a bit familiar to anyone? Promise everything to every group and then, when things get a least bit on the 'not enough votes' side, you then protest it?

This is the politics of group based 'identity': where which group you belong to by race, ethnicity, gender, religion, etc. is more important than who you are. This is a poisonous political brew spilled out from the American Left in which one group will be purported to be 'oppressed' and then given free rein to do just about anything they want as they are not responsible for their actions because of 'social repression'. This is a guiding credo of Transnational Progressivism - the group over the individual, and what you are born into is more important than what you are or what you can become. It is this idea that gives us 'power politics' of the sort where individuals are given 'empowering experiences' which are just the normal and everyday rights of the individual. In no time at all one group is worn out and some new group is found that can replace it for political needs.

Strangely enough when the concept of looking for Muslim votes comes up we actually *do* get someone to stand up for separation of church and state in Kenya and adhering to this thing known as The Peace of Westphalia! While not stated as such and amidst a longer tract on how human rights issues should be addressed by democratic means, Amir Ibrahim from this 10 OCT 2007 article at Kenya Imagine gives us "Let's do away with the Muslim vote":
There has been a trend in Kenyan politics and this most prevalent among the media and political classes to speak of the Muslim vote, a collective that needs to be courted and won over by the parties and their candidates.

As a secular Muslim, even an agnostic one living in these times, I cannot think of any stunt more dangerous for the well-being of the Kenyan Muslim than this. No other scheme could be less likely to deter efforts to foster a sense of joint community and common values. Whereas it is true that organized religion can be a useful means by which politicians can reach the voting public, it is most offensive to view Kenyan Muslims as a monolithic group that pays homage to the ideas of some fuzzy unelected council some dark place in Mombasa. With the international climate already so virulently poisoned against Islam and its adherents, it is necessary that all such talk is kept as far away from the public domain as possible.

[..]

And finally we must return to the votes and campaigning. First off, in the separation of religion from the state as contrived in our laws, there should be no scope for political bargaining on the basis of faith. Faith must remain in the domain of the personal, bringing that out simply violates the rights and freedoms of other Kenyans as it imposes on them burdens others have voluntarily chosen to take up. But even if this was the case, there is a need to be rational.

I have traveled in Western Kenya, and visited a mosque in places as diverse as Mumias and Kapsabet. The family of US Senator Obama are Muslims in Siaya. Najib Balala is a Muslim of one Coastal extraction and experience, Suleiman Shakombo is one from another experience. There is no any politician or cleric can claim to speak for Kenyan Muslims. The sugarcane farming Muslim in Matungu and the maize farming one in Aldai have exactly the same worries and concerns as their fellow constituents.

These are already poisoned times, and given the views of many Kenyans I have spoken to, they will get even more poisoned. There is no reason to aid in the construction of a fifth column out of Muslims. There is every need that all Kenyans come together in the defence of truth and justice, not just those issues that affect their society peculiarly. More than anything however, Kenyans must accept the rights of others to a public sphere disinfected of all religion. Keep your faith private.
Yes, not only the Muslim vote but *all* voting on the basis of religion so that faith may be kept by individuals without the State interfering. This is a *Western* ideal and should be supported by all those seeking to keep Westphalia and the rights of man upheld. Religion to guide but not decide alone. Also note in this that Senator Obama's family are seen as Muslims - from Muslim extraction and experience which is Kenyan and localized. That makes the presence of the MoU even more worrying as does support from Arab regimes. Do note that Muslims are about 10% of the population of Kenya, but appear to be groomed as the next 'underclass' needing 'empowering experiences' at the price of the public good.

From the troubles in the government of President Kibaki, we can see how ethnic strife has been stoked prior to the latest bloodlettings in Kenya. This from The Nation (Kenya) distributed by AllAfrica Global Media at TMC.net on 30 DEC 2007:
The death of his first vice-president in August 2003 and quarrels in his coalition put paid to a credible process to give Kenyans a new constitution.

It therefore came as no surprise in 2005 when the LDP wing of the Cabinet, led by Mr Odinga, rebelled and ran a high profile campaign together with the opposition Kanu and defeated the proposed constitution in November of the same year.

In the wake of the fall-out, the President cracked the whip and fired the rebellious ministers who included Mr Odinga, Mr Kalonzo Musyoka, Mr Najib Balala, Prof Anyang Nyong'o and Mrs Linah Jebii Kilimo. The "rebels" chose to stick together and transformed the Orange movement into a political party named the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

Meanwhile, security around the country continued to deteriorate. Organised gangs, including the outlawed Mungiki sect, wrecked havoc in Nairobi and parts of Central province, killing tens of civilians and police officers.

In the wake of criticism on the Government's inability to crack down on Mungiki, the police formed a special squad known as Kwekwe to deal with the deteriorating situation.

Providing security, which was one of the key pledges President Kibaki made to Kenyans as he campaigned in 2002, was tested with the clashes in Mt Elgon and Kuresoi.

Thousands of families remain displaced in these two areas while farming and schooling has been disrupted by the violence.
Here the faction of the Narc that would become ODM sees the death of a Vice-President to help put stop to a proposed constitution. While the constitution did not meet up to the particulars that allowed the Narc to form, the way in which this was protested was not through democratic means, but those of street violence and mayhem, starting in 2005. That that went with Raila Odinga to form the ODM are referred to by the name of their meeting place: Pentagon House in Lavington. Or simply - Pentagon members.

Now a sidelight into how scandal begets political power, this starting with Kamlesh Pattni as seen via The Standard Online 23 DEC 2007:
Kamlesh Pattni introduced himself to Kenyans in a notorious way. In the early 1990s, Pattni, then an obscure character, emerged as one of those behind what is to date the biggest financial scam to ever hit the country.

When in 2003, the Government formed the Judicial Commission of Inquiry into the Goldenberg Affair, it emerged that the company, Goldenberg International, which was later to rip the country of billions of shillings, was first registered on July 11, 1990 with a nominal capital of Sh100,000, divided into 1,000 shares of Sh100 each.

It was all hot air. Findings of the commission concluded that Pattni had become wealthy by defrauding the public through the Goldenberg scam.

Further, the Commission described him as a "perjurer, forger, fraudster and a thief".

Kamlesh Mansukhlal Pattni and James Kanyottu, with one share each, signed the Memorandum and Articles of Association. The two signed as the only directors and shareholders. The objects for which the company was incorporated as shown in the Memorandum and Articles of Association are wide ranging, and covered every conceivable economic activity.

It was to, among other things, engage in the import and export of any or all types of minerals, gold, silver, diamonds, precious and semiprecious stones between Kenya and all Preferential Trade Area countries, Europe, India and other parts of the world.

The company was also to prospect, explore, open and work claims or mines and raise dig and quarry for gold, silver, mineral ores diamonds, precious and semi-precious stones in Kenya and in other parts of East Africa.

After months of gruelling questioning and digging through data, the inquiry concluded that it got no evidence that the company ever engaged in any mining activity of gold and diamonds. Likewise, apart from the two subscriber shares, there was no evidence that any other shares were allotted or paid for. The records of the Companies Registry showed no return of allotments.

In the end, the Inquiry indicted Pattni as "the instigator of everything with which this commission has been concerned."

He was the promoter of Goldenberg International Ltd and its shareholder and director at all times. While his relatives and associates played some role in the company, he alone was fully responsible.

"It was, in fact, his alter ego and he treated it as such. By section 23 of the Penal Code, he was responsible criminally for everything done by that company," the inquiry established.

[..]

What was to follow was no small matter and caused unsurpassed inflation due to excess money supply. Revenue collection from the public coffers was used to pay the 35 per cent Export Compensation at the expense of other projects which the Government would ordinarily undertake with such monies. In 1990 alone, the 15 per cent ex gratia payments increased expenditures to over Sh100 million.

"The negative economic impact of the Goldenberg Affair to the country was so massive that its effects continue to be felt to date," read the inquiry’s report.

Firstly, because of the ad hoc and arbitrary manner in which the additional 15 per cent ex gratia payments had been imposed upon an already strained economy, it meant that this extra expenditure had not been included in the June 1990 Budget therefore causing what Prof Terry Ryan has described as "further unanticipated pressure on the fiscal structures", the inquiry found.

[..]

When party nominations ended mid last month, Pattni delivered another shocker. His Kenya National Democratic Alliance emerged with the second highest number of candidates after ODM. With 170 hopefuls on its ticket, Kenda is second on the list behind ODM’s 190. Even the President’s party, PNU, with 135, could not match Pattni.

In the race for civic seats, Pattni and Kenda also spread themselves well. Out of the 15,332 nominees, Mr Pattni’s party is fifth on the roll with 927 candidates, behind ODM which has 1,888, PNU’s 1,284, Kanu’s 1,103 and ODM-Kenya’s 968.

[..]

Among the converts to Kenda are former Immigration minister Linah Jebii Kilimo, who hosted Pattni several times in her Marakwet East constituency before making her move. Other than Kilimo, other names in the Kenda line-up are a number of former MPs. They are Mr Davis Nakitare (Saboti), Mr Samuel Moroto (Kapenguria), Mr Raphael Kitur (Konoin), Mr Joseph Kimkung (Mt Elgon), Mr Stephen Ndichu (Juja) and Mr Joseph Malebe (Igembe South). There is also former Kenyan ambassador to South Africa Tabitha Seii.

Even as Pattni pulls another move on Kenyans, the Goldenberg scam, his first test on Kenyans, has produced no convictions 13 years later.

To date, Pattni insists that Goldenberg was designed to bring badly needed foreign exchange to Kenya by using the country’s strategic position near mineral-rich but conflict-ridden countries like Congo and Sudan.

[..]

In March last year, Attorney-General, Mr Amos Wako, ordered that eight top Goldenberg suspects, including Pattni and former spy chief, Kanyotu, be charged. As part of the implementation of the recommendations of the Commission led by Justice Samuel Bosire, Wako directed that suspects indicted by the report face charges ranging from stealing, conspiracy to defraud to abuse of office.

As a result, several people, among them the Goldenberg scandals’ chief architect, Pattni, are now in court facing criminal charges. According to the Commissions’ findings, Pattni, had become wealthy by defrauding the public through the Goldenberg scam. The judicial commission found that Pattni’s alleged rip-off had caused the public a loss of Sh27 billion. Another Sh10 billion was stashed away in foreign accounts and was never recovered.

With its findings, Pattni was hauled before court alongside five others accused of conspiring to steal Sh5.8 billion from the Government.

[..]

When the Goldenberg Commission of Inquiry presented its report to President Kibaki in October 2005, Kenyans hoped the multi-billion shilling scandal had finally been settled.

Two years down the line, the scandal that caused the taxpayer billions of shillings remains unresolved. And Pattni is still trying Kenyans.

The case he filed will be heard in March 2008. By that time, Pattni could be a Honourable Member of Parliament.
The reason this is interesting is that Raila Odinga's father was part of the Goldenberg scandal. This seen from an Africa Wired article from 23 SEP 2001 by Matunda Nyanchama:
The largest corruption scandal in Kenya was the brainchild of Kamlesh Pattni, a young man in his early 30s. This scandal, whose end we have yet to see, has the most widespread tentacles, some reaching into the highest echelons of government. And it touches more people than many Kenyans have cared to understand, including others that were "saints" in Kenyans' eyes. Kenyans recall too well the late Oginga Odinga Jaramogi's admission to accepting two million shillings from Pattni. He would later claim he did not know of Pattni's involvement in Goldenberg!

Jaramogi's son Raila Odinga, now Minister for Energy, with Otieno Kajwang' as his lawyer, would later institute a private prosecution case against Vice-President George Saitoti for involvement in Goldenberg. It is only that politics knows no irony that both Odinga and Saitoti find themselves in the same cabinet. And Goldenberg still remains unresolved to citizens' satisfaction.

If the elections of 1992 have any lesson to offer it is that younger generation leaders are equally culpable in the problems we face as a country. At the time, there was open clamour for change with Kenyans looking forward to a new era, one free of the obfuscation, persecution and torture of the one-party state. We know what happened. Kenyans' wishes for change were frustrated by, among others, young people in the name of Youth for Kanu 1992. This movement of power-hungry interests, awash with money siphoned from national coffers, locked in Kanu victory, which ensured continuing exploitation of Kenyans by a small corrupt clique.
Now if Raila Odinga had prosecuted his *father* when joining government, that would have been noteworthy on the anti-corruption credentials list... in fact by *not* doing that he is then seen as continuing on the corruption of the previous generation. And in politics that appearance is just as bad as doing the actual work itself. And that continued on to 2006 as seen by African Press International in an article of 19 NOV 2006:
Raila Odinga, when he was the Minister for Roads in Mwai Kibaki’s government, pulled down many expensive houses in Kenya telling Kenyans that he was doing so, “in the name of roads expansion.”

Many of the houses pulled down belonged to the Kikuyus and non-Luo communities who, on loosing their properties, were denied compensation by the Roads ministry then headed by Raila.

Those who lost their properties had nowhere to go. When the president discovered the infliction Raila was causing to the Kikuyu and other communities, he sacked him from the position of the minister in-charge of roads.

When reports were released on the houses Raila ordered pulled down, there was none on the list downed in Nyanza Province, Raila’s home province.

Now, Raila has continued his campaign to take over power in Kenya and many question what will happen to the landlords should Raila become the President.

[..]

According to the present constitution, the president is above the law. He can order the pulling down of houses without compensation, without risking to be prosecuted.

Kenya should not forget that when Jomo Kenyatta was president, Raila’s father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga was vice-president. A man who wanted so much to become president. His political ambition saw him leave KANU, the ruling party at the time, to form his own party, the KPU, and got the help from Russia in order to distabilise Kenyatta’s government.

When Oginga did not manage to take power from Kenyatta, he waited eyeing for the post from the side-lines. Daniel Arap Moi took over from Kenyatta and Oginga’s frustrations could no longer be hidden.

He became very desperate and decided to engineer the attempted coup in 1982, a coup against Moi which almost succeeded. Oginga was at the time in house arrest in Kisumu, but still managed to communicate with the coup plotters.

Raila is now trying to take over the Nyanza torch eyeing for presidency, hoping to dislodge Kibaki by all means possible.
By not addressing the previous scandal and then taking actions in a way that is not only politically partisan but ethnically partisan as those losing houses were Kikuyus, Raila Odinga is then seen as continuing on with his father's work in the exact, same manner as his father, save with a nicer political face.

Part of that ability was built on the lack of limits to political donors. Yes, those lovely laws in the US are *not* present in Kenya, so when when corrupt money comes to the door you can invite it in and as much of it as can be handled. The Money and Politics site has a copy of an article from The Nation (Nairobi) by David Mugonyi from 24 APR 2006 (pdf file here) looking at the consequences of this. This section looks at the procedure:
The expectation is that once in power, the party that forms the Government retains contracts entered into by the previous administration.

It works is as follows:

During the General Election and major by-elections like the forthcoming ones in Marsabit, Moyale and Nakuru districts, major interest groups identify candidates and political parties most likely to win.

Parties that show the most promise get the highest contribution.

Businesses, or their scouts then identify the party whose members are most likely to be the vocal in Parliament and contribute money to them.

Kenya has no law regulating political party contributions, a situation that has opened the system to abuse and corruption.

Before the reintroduction of multiparty politics in 1992, the law barred parliamentary candidates from using more than Sh40,000 in campaigns, at the time a respectable figure.
This law was removed when competitive politics entered the scene.

There have been protests that Kanu's and former President Daniel arap Moi's well-oiled election campaign in the last General Election was largely funded by money raised through the Goldenberg schemes and from the collapsed Postbank Credit, and channelled through the Youth for Kanu '92 group.

Goldenberg architect Kamlesh Pattni also gave money to Mzee Jaramogi Oginga Odinga for a by-election when he was Ford Kenya leader.

Kenya's attempts to regulate political donations came a cropper when a draft law proposed by former Justice and Constitutional Affairs minister Kiraitu Murungi failed to make it to the floor of the House.

It had proposed the creation of a scheme financed by taxpayers to fund political party operations.

Individuals would have been barred from giving more than Sh1 million in cash and services to any political party.
Ok, not up to Norman Hsu levels, but Kenya is a much smaller Nation than the US. What is interesting is the utilization of 'affiliate groups', like the Youth for Kanu organization, to help wash the source of funds out of the accountability procedure.

This, of course, leads to how the great reformer, Raila Odinga, can 'clean up the process' by centralizing the funds to the State:
Mr Odinga, who was among the leading campaigners of President Kibaki in 2002, said they were funded by Narc supporters to mount the successful campaign that led to Kanu's defeat.

"There were a number of business people whom we appealed to, besides ourselves who put in personal funds," he said.

But he feels that party funding should be done by the State, and if business people put in money, they should be made by law to disclose it for the purpose of taxation, as is done in Mexico and the US.

Mr Odinga said that during the 1997 elections when he ran for presidency on the National Development Party, 21 MPs allied to him contributed Sh5,000 each for six months. This amounted to at least Sh630,000. Other sources were friends, business people and professionals.
Apparently he does not understand that the US government only has a 'matching funds' for those that accept restrictions and the number of those candidates at the Presidential level dried up the last few years. And if Mexico is a haven for 'clean elections' and 'lack of corruption' I have yet to see any evidence of it, thus no matter how the funding is worked corrupt money just seems to find its way into politics.

And to let you know how *bad* democracy is on the pocketbook, lets see some of the rationale handed out by those running for office:
Mr Kombo, Mr Kamanda, Mr Odinga and Mr Kilonzo backed proposals that political parties be funded by the State, but a ceiling be put on how much funds could be raised from other sources.

Mr Muturi said Kanu also got funds from key businessmen, but he did not know how they recovered their money.

The Kanu Chief Whip said: "It's correct to say there have been businessmen or benefactors contributing to political party funding. However, how they benefited after that, I've no idea."
Mr Muturi said the symbiotic relationship of Mr Moi being the party chairman and Head of State made it difficult to know where money came from.

But all Kanu candidates, he added, would be invited to State House and given financial assistance. This happened in 1992, 1997 and 2002.

The Local Government minister said: "Absolutely... the only way democracy can be nurtured is to fund parties. Democracy is expensive, and if Kenyans want multiparty democracy, they should be prepared to pay for it."

Mr Kombo said companies should contribute funds in a pool, which should be shared among parties equitably.

All the MPs agreed that sources of such funds should not be kept secret, and that political parties account for how the money is spent.

In many developed countries, political parties are allowed to source funds from corporations and individuals. However, a ceiling is put on how much should be collected.

Mr Kilonzo said Kenya should introduce funding of political parties, but prohibit foreigners from contributing to the kitty.

Proceeds from terrorists and drug and prostitution rings could find its way into party activities if funding of parties was not from the State.
There are some 'good ideas' for a parliamentary system, but do notice that the UK keeps the cost of election campaigns down by limiting them to 60 days before the election. The US sees much higher costs as localized democracy is no longer a part of the make-up of the Nation at the federal level, thus creating huge districts and, likewise, large opportunities for graft, corruption, nepotism and the such. Putting the State in charge of finances has skewed politics in many Nations as the parties then see the lifeblood of their organizations no longer coming primarily from the People, but from the State. And once a party or consortium of parties takes office and it wants to restrict other parties, then changing the funding structure is very simple. Actually requiring limits on incoming funds and accountability works generally well without State funding, however, a point missed by those pushing for State funding.

Still that is just a general criticism, the larger one is the idea of concentrating authority under the State and putting someone who is familially 'owed' high office in charge of things. That someone being Raila Odinga who's party and family have profited by this arrangement since his father's days. It is this combination that plays together in Kenya, as seen by Africa News on 25 SEP 2007 when looking at the funding for campaigns in Kenya, and I will pull out the part on Raila Odinga:
RAILA

ODM is expected to draw funding from the Russian government, who has already provided two technical campaign assistants at Orange House.

The Nigerian government that has traditionally provided political and social support to the Raila Odinga family is also involved in the funding of the party campaigns.

In fact, in the 1997 presidential campaigns former Nigerian President Olesugun Obasanjo individually participated in the funding of Raila’s campaign.

Obasanjo, was also the chief mediator in the dowry negotiations of Raila’s son, Fidel recently.

The Libyan government according to an insider in the Raila team is also involved in talks with an aim of bankrolling the party.

Only two weeks ago the Libyan ambassador and three members of the pentagon met in a Nairobi hotel where the issue of funding was discussed to the detail.

Individuals within the German government where Raila went to school and the United States of America are also participating in the funding of the Raila campaign team.

US senators Henry Dawkins, John Edwards (who is vying for the Presidency on a Democratic Party ticket), Obama and Joe Biden all of whom have Kenyan connections – having been born in the pre-colonial period in Kenya are also said to favour Raila.

Two other legislators in Britain’s Labour and Conservative party whose names we could not immediately establish form the framework of funding for the Raila ODM team.

The Kenyan diaspora that has already saturated the internet with over 150 blogs in favour of Raila will be the other key team for the funding process –instructively that is the team in charge of advertisement and was the same one that funded the acquiring of the famous Hammer vehicle.
Locally he has the might of Cyrus Jirongo, who has offered to support a Raila campaign and that of Musalia Mudavadi to rely on.
Yes, Raila Odinga's son is named after Fidel Castro. Beyond that are the direct links to Russia, Libya, Nigeria and a plethora of individuals across the globe. While all parties in Kenya look towards this or financing by wealthy donors, one is left wondering if the main problem on campaign finance *is* this foreign funding. And once office is taken, is it any wonder that these Nation contributors expect some preference afterwards? These are not things that make for clean elections or allow for corruption to be rooted out of government. One of the problematical parts of foreign interest seeking control is the need to get control in the first place, and that can often go through indirect routes.

Part of that is seen in the dealings with two men claiming to be from Armenia, but who apparently were interested in other things, like narcotics smuggling. That case would expand to point at corrupt individuals in the Foreign Ministry, Criminal Investigation Department, Airport Authority all the way down to local police in Nairobi. As part of that would also be a special adviser to the Water Ministry and President Kibaki (close enough to be a rumored second wife), Mary Wambui via her daughter Winnie who was engaged to one of the two 'Armenians', Artur Margaryan. As this mess would unfold after the seizure of a drug shipment at the Nairobi airport, more and more individuals would get swept up into and that would include Raila Odinga. As reported by The Nation (Kenya) on 15 AUG 2006 by Bernard Namunane (copy cached at armeniandiaspora.com forum) we will see how Raila Odinga would be able to be 'worried' about 'assassins' entering the country:
MP Raila Odinga, political activist Mary Wambui and her daughter Winnie Wangui plus businessman Kamlesh Pattni are on a list of high profile witnesses who are to be interviewed afresh over the security scandal involving the Armenian Artur brothers.

Also listed for questioning are the entire top brass of the country's security system, including intelligence chief Michael Gichangi, Chief of General Staff Jeremiah Kianga and Police Commissioner Hussein Ali.

They are to be quizzed by a Parliamentary committee over the activities of the so-called brothers - condemned as major international criminals - and in particular the way they breached security at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport which led to them being deported.

And the committee is hoping to ensure all the witnesses give their evidence in public - unlike previous witnesses who were heard in private after Parliament's Business Committee blocked the committee's pleas for public hearings.

[..]

Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka were the first to blow the whistle on the presence of the Artur brothers in the country when they claimed the two were mercenaries hired to carry out political assassinations.

But Mr Margaryan countered the claim with allegations that they had lent Sh108 million to Mr Odinga and had hosted Mr Musyoka in Dubai.
In my previous piece I looked at the African Press International article 'How rich is Raila' which places him in the Arap Moi government Energy Ministry by 2001 and being able to readily set up deals with the Al Bakri Group, which, itself, is cited as a supporter of al Qaeda. This dovetails through a local drug boss, Ibrahim Akasha, but for reasons that only become a bit less murky as time goes on. East Africa Press has a good round-up of the basic timeline in their NOV 2007 article The Truth About The Mercenaries We Loved:
The Arturs, whose true nationality is believed to be Russian, reliably first visited Kenya in 1999, months after a consignment of hashish was impounded in Mombasa.

Then, as in late 2005, they came to intercede with authorities and Kenyan links in the bungled operation that saw the drug cartel lose drugs worth millions of shillings. Their message to the local link, the late Ibrahim Akasha, whose connection with the hashish haul had become a matter of public knowledge, was to either compensate his Russian partners financially or face an all-out war.

On the run after being indicted in Kenya for drug trafficking, Ibrahim Akasha had sought refuge in Netherlands, regarded as Europe’s drug haven. There, he was trailed and assassinated in October 2000 by a suspected Russian hitman riding on a bicyle.
In the ensuing gangland war, some Russian members of the cartel and
Akasha’s son, Kamaldin, were also eliminated.

According to impeccable confidential sources, it was during that first visit that the Arturs reportedly made contact with key individuals now in the Narc administration. And, probably because of this, while they had only come to deliver what would pass as a threat in 1999, they stuck around up to 2000 during which they found good company in the family of Russian nationals doing underground businesses, including operating brothels, illicit liquor and drugs and peddling forged immigration documents in a building in Muthaiga.

But the situation became a little complicated in 2000. First, they realised that the mysterious murder in July 1999 of one of their Russian colleagues, Victor Gontcharenko, had been discovered and police were pursuing his killers. Secondly, Ibahim Akasha, their primary mission, had been forced to flee the country after the courts found him guilty of drug trafficking.

In an interview with a Kenyan daily newspaper in 2003, one of the Russian nationals had pointed at the fact that the Russian cartel not only had strong links with the Kanu administration but had also helped Narc take power in the 2002 General Election, information that explains what sustained the association between the Arturs and key Government officials.
Here we have the Arturs coming to Kenya and getting relatively high level access in 1999-2000 during the Moi government. Their main target is Ibrahim Akasha who hadn't paid up for a heroin shipment and the Red Mafia wanted to ensure that the message got across that one doesn't do that to them... The Red Mafia?

For those of you unfamiliar with the Red Mafia, I looked at them awhile ago to see how multiple smaller organizations can combine under a single umbrella group and yet retain high autonomy amongst their sub-groups. In this case the drug running, Dubai and such looks to be the work of 'The Red Don' Semion Mogilevich, although it could be a smaller competing outfit, but those smaller gangs don't have the wherewithal to follow someone around from continent to continent to kill a minor drug distributor who flees from Kenya to Europe. The 'Arturs' are Russian Mafia and have been involved, as the East African Press article recounts, with PKK, LTTE and working government contracts to make contacts and expand their operations. This is a tentative association, however, as other organized crime groups could be involved or be the drivers of this, but the sophistication exhibited by the individuals and the ability to work across multiple regions and terrorist organizations points to something a bit unusual for the older European Mafia groups. That and some of the later straightforwardness of the 'Arturs' points to the Red Mafia.

In the 'How Rich is Raila' article we also get a listing of some of his assets which include: Runda House Kshs 15 million. Now I am aware that there is most likely more than *one* 'Runda House'... in fact there are lots of them! Thus it is pure coincidence that the 'Armenians' stayed at a house in the same area, as seen from the East Africa Press article, above:
The Arturs returned to the hotel on 13 December and stayed until 19 December before they moved out to a house on Lenana Road in Nairobi’s Hurlingham area, before finally settling in the mansion in Runda.

The Runda house (Plot number 7785/977 on Glory Road) owned by Mr Sammy Mutinda Musyoki was leased to Brotherlink Ltd. Whose directors are listed as Artur Margarian, Artur Sargasian and Mohammed Zakir Oomer. It is also the same company to which the name of Winnie Wambui was linked.

The Arturs were always in the company of Winnie Wambui and a Ms Shifana, a light tanned woman who drove them around. It has since been established that Ms Shifana, who along with the Arturs had security passes to all airports, is the daughter of a Mombasa based businessman and a long time friend of slain druglord Ibrahim Akasha.

Indeed Artur Margarian claimed one of the cars they drove around had been purchased from the Akashas. Unconfirmed reports also show that that one of Artur’s business managers in Dubai is married to the late Akasha’s daughter.
There you have the daughter of a high ranking woman in the Kibaki government, Winnie Wambui daughter of Mary Wambui, and the daughter of the druglord killed in Europe, Ms. Shifana. In organized crime realms, that really is a great way to go for immunity and dealing inside a Nation: get romantically involved with the daughter of a high ranking advisor (perhaps get engaged!) and also get involved with the daughter of a late druglord that you may or may not have helped to get deceased.

Luckily the Artur brothers had been working their way up in Kenya and scoping it out over the years, getting communications contracts for the most part, and using those to establish themselves in the Kenya market. Plus they had good backing, as seen from a 29 MAR 2006 article at Kenyanmarketplace.com:
On Friday, Baktash was among the personalities interviewed by the police investigating the mercenary allegations.

Also questioned was Mr Margaryan and another of his local associates, prominent Nairobi businessman and real estate dealer Raju Sanghani.

Mr Margaryan's elder brother, Artur Sargasyan, is believed to be still in Dubai despite earlier indications that he would return to Kenya before the weekend.

The Sunday Nation has established that Baktash Akasha and Raju Sanghani were two of the initial contacts who introduced the Armenian brothers to key players in local political, business and security circles.

They were able to satisfy many people that they were genuine investors, and were even given firearms certificates by the police.

They were supposedly planning to put up a Sh210 million housing development on Mombasa Road near Nairobi, and a multi-million shillings casino.

Mr Sargasyan declared at the press conference a week ago that they were related to the Armenian Prime Minister and that he was also running for President.

But sources within the Armenia Government said the two did not have permanent residence in their country and thus did not qualify to run.

The office of the Armenian Prime Minister, Andranik Markaryan, denied that the duo is related to him. The Armenian Prime Minister's Press secretary, Mery Haroutyan, said the Prime Minister did not have any relatives by the names Artur Margaryan and Artur Sargasyan.

The Foreign Ministry also denied that the brothers are related to President Robert Kocharian who is running for another term.

[..]

While the business operations of the two men remained hazy, their lawyer in Dubai, Mr Abdullah Al Noor described his clients as "renowned businessmen who are genuine".

Mr Noor told Sunday Nation yesterday that mercenary allegations against Mr Margaryan and Mr Sargasyan were "utter nonsense", saying the two were well known businessmen in Dubai with investments in real estate, import and export of electronics and cars, among other businesses. "I have represented the two businessmen for the last seven years and all I know is that they are very genuine businessmen," he added.
The Baktash is Baktash Akasha, son of the slain druglord and Raju Sanghani would turn out to be a local operations boss for the drug running outfit that the Artur brothers represented. Tracking down their lawyer, however, has proven to be a bit of a problem, as the only one to come up in Zoominfo is Noor Lily Zuriati Bt Abdullah of the petroleum outfit Petronas Dagangan Berhad of Malaysia which is an arm of the Malaysian State owned company Petroliam Nasional. Luckily there is one good connection in all of this, a joint venture partner of Petronas of Malaysia: Bakri Trading Asia subsidiary of the Al Bakri & Sons Group mentioned previously. The folks connected to Raila Odinga. Now it is very possible that there is *another* Abdullah Noor, lawyer in Dubai, but there are Petronas offices in Dubai, so it is not out of the realm of possibility that this is the very same Abdullah Noor as mentioned backing the brothers Artur.

Of course the brothers were just interested in 'charity' work! From the Kenyamarket article a bit further on:
Raju Sanghani, who introduced the Armenians to senior ODM figure Mr Kalonzo Musyoka, yesterday admitted getting involved with them as an estate agent.

But Mr Sanghani said he was cutting links with the brothers until the controversy surrounding them was resolved. "I am writing to Brotherlink Limited today on this matter because it is really affecting my work."

Mr Sanghani provided a copy of the design of the proposed 5,000-unit low-cost housing project he says the brothers wanted to develop at Athi River.

Mr Sanghani said: "As an estate agent, I did for them the work they wanted for a commission."

He said although the Armenians wanted to buy some houses he had built in Karen, the negotiations were halted because of the price they offered."

Police formerly recorded Mr Margaryan's statement on Friday afternoon at the Nairobi Area Provincial Police office.

Mr Margaryan first met the Nairobi Provincial Police Officer King'ori Mwangi before being interrogated by the deputy Provincial Criminal Investigations Officer, Isaiah Osugo for over two hours.

From Dubai, their lawyer insisted the two men were involved in charity, claiming they were planning to build schools and churches to help the poor.

"They want to construct schools, boxing clubs, football pitches all free of charge," he added.

Asked whether Mr Sargasyan would be returning to Kenya, the lawyer said: "Yes he will be coming but I don't know when."

On Friday, Mr Sargasyan could not confirm or deny that he hosted some prominent Kenyans in Dubai last December. He referred Sunday Nation to his brother, who he said was currently speaking on behalf of the family in Kenya.

Asked to comment on the reports of the alleged Dubai meeting with powerful Kenyans, Mr Margaryan said: "It's not your business who I meet."
Yes, their lawyer tells us its all just about 'charity'. That note of charity, however, should also include the knowledge that not just Raila Odinga having ties to the underworld. Kalonzo Musyoka has similar ties via a man in his district that he help run for President back in the 1990's: John Harun Mwau. At Jaluo dot Kom comes an article by Sam R. O. Kotiende (blog here) about this relationship, dated 16 MAR 2007. Apparently there are more than enough skeletons to go around in this, and those have kept two governments (Moi and Kibaki) from doing much about the criminal enterprises of Mwau. Yes, there is 'charity' and then there is just 'looking the other way'.

The 'Arturs' would also do this exact, same, thing, as seen in The Standard, Kenya article of 02 DEC 2006 and would avail themselves of high level protection from the Criminal Investigation Department (CID equivalent of the US FBI), which would include police bodyguards. Additionally the brothers would visit State House and make contacts in the Foreign Ministry for meeting with an official from Uganda. It is not often the criminal element can arrange for police bodyguards and not be on the receiving end of jail time while doing so. It is in that article that the chauffeur of the Arturs' partner in crime, Raju Sanghani, would tell everything he had seen going on.

Of less fun and frivolity is that the Artur brothers apparently helped police raid The Standard newspaper when it was going to start publishing details between government officials and al Qaeda. Yes, you read that correctly - they were not *raided* by the police but helping to lead the police *raid* on a news organization. This seen with an article from The Standard, Kenya from 17 MAR 2006 "Michuki questioned as 'Armenian' plot thickens"
By Andrew Teyie (copy cache at armeniandiaspora). The raid was on The Standard of East Africa's offices in 2006 and it is noteworthy for an interesting event or two:
Internal Security Minister John Michuki yesterday appeared before the Parliamentary Departmental Committee on Administration of Justice and Legal Affairs to explain why the Government raided the Standard Group.

He is said to have claimed the Government raided the Group two weeks ago because the media group runs a propaganda unit.

Michuki further claimed that the Group intended to publish a series of stories linking key government officials to the Al-Qaeda terrorist group, sources close to the Committee said.

"It was a government action. The Standard Group has a propaganda unit which wanted to run stories that key government officials have Al-Qaeda links," a source close to the committee said of Michuki.
Following this so far? A police raid on a news organization because the organization was about to publish links between corrupt politicians and al Qaeda. The police would not only dismantle the printing press, terrorize and rob the folks at the offices, but also take the printed copies of the paper and burn them. The article also takes a look at the immediate cause of the raid:
According to sources, Michuki claimed that the Group had also lined up stories on the Akiwumi Tribal Clashes report. The stories, Michuki reportedly told the Committee, were to portray key government officials as organisers of the clashes.

The source said the Committee was told: "They (Standard Group) wanted to publish stories on the Akiwumi report claiming that the current government was involved in the clashes."

[..]

Michuki is said to have told the Committee that the raid was carried out by Kenyans and was sanctioned by the Government. It is unclear why they had to be hooded and why they had to carry out the raid in contravention of the law.

Michuki reportedly insisted that those who raided the Standard were not mercenaries. He is said to have assured the Committee that the Government is investigating the mercenaries claims and any links such people may have to a certain Narc activist.

Late yesterday evening, Michuki sent a statement to newsrooms confirming that the mercenaries claims were under "active" government investigations.
Do notice how it was *only* Kenyans involved? Strange that this should be worth mentioning in a police raid, isn't it? The reason why that is strange comes out in the East Africa Press article, above:
Knowledgeable confidential sources say that the main problems that had been identified, and which needed immediate solution, were the critical media, which included The Standard and KTN, and some of the leaders who were then campaigning against the draft constitution. ODM leaders Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka, who claimed that the Artur brothers were in the country specifically to assassinate them, seemed to have had more than an inkling.

But Police Spokesman Gideon Kibunja, interviewed by local journalists, dismissed any possibility that the Artur brothers could have been hitmen hired to knock off some key opposition leaders.

“I don’t think any serious person would hire such people as hitmen. They are so tactless and very visible,” he told one reporter.

But confidential police sources aver that the Arturs were on a mission. In the raid against The Standard Group, for example, it is said that the Artur brothers, who were initially supposed to accompany the assualt team only as telecommunications experts to help disable KTN, ended up leading the raid after senior Government officials failed to agree on a compromise.

While a former senior police officer wanted his personal assistant attached to the Criminal Investigations Department to lead the raid, a cabinet minister wanted a former Nairobi Provincial Criminal Investigations Officer to lead it. When they failed to agree, they settled on Artur Margarian as a compromise.
This is, apparently, a bit out of the usual even in Kenya: utilizing underworld figures to lead a police raid on a news organization so as to stop the publication of the connections of political figures to terrorists. And Raila Odinga gets to be the apparent chicken little warning about 'assassins' that, most likely, were in the country on his need to ensure that the connections between him, Al Bakri and al Qaeda were not made public easily from an organization that would be hard to discredit.

Beyond the drive for personal power, money, and such there appears to be one other thing that helped to drive Raila Odinga in this direction, and to find that we need just a bit of background on one of the main smuggling points of the Akasha smuggling group. Nation Audio has a report from The East African of the Nation Group that looks at this from 06 MAR 2000, just as all of this was starting up with missed payment for a heroin shipment and such, this time looking at a hashish shipment gone wrong:
Last month, police in Mombasa seized more than three tonnes of hashish with an estimated street value of Ksh940 million.

The government has since issued arrest warrants for a Mombasa tycoon, Mr Ibrahim Abdalla Akasha and one of his sons, Mr Baktash Akasha, both of whom are allegedly linked to the hashish haul.

The poorly-policed Kenyan coastline, dotted with thousands of small islands, is the perfect theatre for smugglers.

The Lamu archipelago near the Somali border is one of the most notorious entry points for drugs dumped by ships on the high seas. They picked up and taken ashore by dhows and later transported to Mombasa and Nairobi before finding their way onto the international market.
For once I'm not looking at the people involved! No this is something a bit on the different side that caught my eye as I was going through scads of articles.

Really, I was a bit dumbstruck when I found it:
Kenya's search for oil enters a crucial new phase when a Norwegian vessel arrives in Mombasa to begin eagerly awaited exploration activities off the coast of Lamu. It will mark the resumption of the search for oil after 10 years of little or no prospecting.

Local and international experts said that prospects of an oil find here were "very high". In fact, numerous representatives of leading international oil companies have been flocking Nairobi over the last four months to bid for exploration concessions. Officials from the National Oil Corporation of Kenya (NOCK) -- the government agency that licenses and markets exploration -- said production sharing agreements had been signed with two major companies for prospecting in the Lamu basin where interest has been highest.
That from Alexander's Gas & Oil Connections article of 13 JUL 2003. Now, for a bit of idle speculation, lets say that you are Raila Odinga and are in charge of the Energy Ministry and just found out from your new found friends, the Al Bakri Group, that there are potential oil and gas reserves in an area of your Nation. Not far fetched as these things go, considering previous work done in the area. You stand to make a good profit out of your investments in the National oil company. Just one problem sitting on top of it: an organized crime druglord who will want a slice of the action.

Can't have that, now, can we?

Mind you there will still *be* problems, but the powerful figure at the head of the family will be gone and the State will be able to flex muscle a bit more easily and not pay out so much to payoffs and such.

So there you have a bit more on Raila Odinga, good friend of Sen. Barack Obama... remember that when you hear a political campaign based on 'change', make sure it is for the better, not the worse.