Today the NYT, that's right the New York Times, launched another salvo at President Bush, an intended 'November Surprise': US Web Archive Is Said to Reveal a Nuclear Primer by Walter J. Broad.
This document uses the captured Foreign Ministry of Iraq archives at the FMSO DOC-EX site to put in ammunition that Saddam Hussein's government was within a year of making a nuclear bomb and was lacking nuclear material. I had addressed this previously with a Note to John Negroponte to put these documents out and a later one thanking him for following his orders. This unleashed "An Army of Translators" across the Internet: dedicated individuals to do the hard work that the INTEL Community just wouldn't do. I followed this with an early series of articles until the revelations were swamping me with data:
Calling all TranslatorsAnd to this we can add the fact that Iran is tearing out a piece of the Saddam playbook on inspectors. The NYT by bringing in its own, somewhat dubious, reviewers find that there is potent information regarding nuclear capability of the Saddam regime and the fact that programs that he was supposed to purge from Iraq and demonstrate compliance with the cease fire that he had signed had not been done.
The Vanguard Moves Forward
The Saddam Dossier
Others on this story today are: Captain's Quarters Blog, Just One Minute, Ray Robison - an ex-UNMOVIC Inspector, Ace of Spades HQ [article, article], The Jawa Report, Gateway Pundit, Riehl World View.
They all cover the implications in a broader sweep than I will even attempt to do. Instead I will now start bringing in the OTHER toxic memes that need to get to the 'ash heap of history' and today seems like a good day for THAT!
PRE-IRAQ WAR MEMES
First, I give link to my first real look at the numbers on Iraq and see if the US had 'made Saddam Hussein', look at the death toll due to his hubris and hegemonic intent and then at the actual Congressional Authorization of the Use of Force. Link here.
The upshot is that the US was responsible for 0.45% of the arms sold to Iraq between 1973 and 1990.
The average death toll due to all wars caused by Saddam, all known mass killings, all known disappearances and every other death caused by his rule and that of his sons: 126/day averaged out.
The CAUF stated many other reasons to hold Saddam accountable, many traceable to the continual breaking of the cease fire agreement, firing on people, holding civilians from other Nations hostage, and continuing to NOT abide by every agreement that was made to bring his Nation into line with its agreements. WMDs make a large part of this, but many of these are SOLE reasons to go to war with Iraq.
To me the above are NOW dead issues. Bring them up and you demonstrate cluelessness with the actual, factual real world.
MILITARY TRANSFORMATION MEMES
On things military I start out with a brief synopsis of the transformed military and its continual transformation. I then join that view with global energy politics and Canada becoming a net oil exporter that will become one of the largest single players in that market within 10 years.
I have special vituperation for 'retired generals' who have no idea how the modern military works while they criticize it. I have news for them, and I know it is a big piece of news: The Cold War Is Over. It is time to let that era go as it does not apply to the modern era. It is HISTORY as is its Doctrine and Equipment and Methodology. Sour Grapes make Poor Whine.
On that last point I look at why the hell 'containment' will not WORK in the case of Iran: it is NOT a rational actor as Nations go, so it does not have the fundamentals of 'realpolitik' to be used against it.
TRANSNATIONAL TERRORIST MEMES
Defining Transnational Terrorism and how it works via a 'Template' Concept for al Qaeda. Transnational Terrorism is a high-level internetworking of ALL terrorist organizations as they interact outside of set spheres and share information and capabilities. Thus, when training is fed in by a Nation, say Saddam's Iraq training the PLO, the PLO then pass that on to the IRA, Hezbollah, al Qaeda, Islamic Jihad, Jemaa Islamiya, Moro Islamic Liberation Front, FARC, Shining Path... yes they have connectivity via individuals and shared suppliers and known contacts with each other. They do NOT DEPEND UPON NATION STATES TO SURVIVE. Can we get that through the heads of the population?
Other organizations now copy that template and methodology in places like London, Madrid, and India.
How this internetworking can be demonstrated is put forth in The Web of the Supernote that tracks where North Korean forged US $100 bills show up. And then takes a further look at North Korean contacts and capabilities.
Senator Reed, clueless on Islamofascism: clues provided, free of charge.
Terrorists and what we *could* do with them. Torture? Heh. Not needed when you have Amendment XIII handy.
The Long Road the Transnational Terrorists want us on... back to Empire... THEIR Empire.
Reading the al Qaeda playbook on 'How to build an Islamic Empire'.
Reviewing the playbook - Frightening. Not in touch with the 'real world' but deadly, just the same.
Clues to the clueless: Terrorism is illegitimate war, not a law enforcement problem. Can you understand the difference?
On the domestic policy side I look at the Democratic defense agenda du jour and find it to be awful and misguided and have no connection with how the military works.
Not to worry, I see President Bush as the Captain of the United States of Titanic, which will lead to no good for the Nation either.
Democrats for Dishonor and their attack on the President. Such wonderful dividers, these Democrats.
Don't worry, NEITHER PARTY has Goals in the Global War on Terror, so I hand out a 'freebie' for the clueless.
Both of those are symptomatic of not understanding the role of the People in War making, and thus the question of Nuclear Midnight by rogue Nations giving WMDs to Transnational Terrorists is a real one.
How those attacking the fight are undermining the will to fight and, thusly, the civilization that protects them. Strangely both those attacking the fight and those bringing it to us want the EXACT SAME THING.
Giving China a 'Nuclear Neighborhood' because they really *love* the idea of a Nuclear Armed Japan... South Korea... Taiwan. North Korea is not OUR responsibility, it is China's.
Iraqi Civil War Memes
Back to Iraq. On the question of a 'civil war': with such a high percentage of automatic weapons ownership what we would expect to see is NOT casualties in the hundreds per month but in the hundreds per DAY.
Then I look at the actual, real definition space used by the Armed Forces to see what is REALLY going on there. And once you understand the framework of that sort of thinking you then understand what is happening.
Also I examine the Strategypage view of this and find that they are right in the lack of players to actually make a 'go' of a REAL civil war.
Civil war in Iraq has been famously predicted since 2002 and again and again and again every couple of weeks: where is it?
The low-down and dirty end of this is that in a THREE sided Nation it is suicide to have a TWO sided civil war. Side THREE WINS by staying out and then cleaning up the mess. It is a bit more complex than that, but not by much.
I encapsulate two looks forward for Iraq, and find alternative ways to address some problems.
And why is all of this violence going on? Because the United States has lifted the stasis field in the Middle East and set the fault lines that had been static since at least 1945 if not 1923 into motion. All of those faultlines criss-cross the region but the vast majority of them have a nexus point inside of Iraq. Shift Iraq and the entire Middle East will Follow.
All of the above is part of the foundations for the problems we see today as I understand it. This is changing as Iran has chosen to raise the curtain on Act II, with Act I simmering to a close in Iraq.
Iran thinks it can play its 'trump card' of long range rockets against Israel. It thinks that distance will stop Israel. Iran does not understand Logic and Logistics in warfare, and Israel very well can strike at Iran.
Iran is being very innovative in how it is deploying its foreign policy! It has fielded TWO Foreign Legions: Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Mahdi Army in Iraq. They are now working on their THIRD such in Venezuela.
Geopolitically Iran sees Lebanon as the key to intimidating the entire Middle East and most of South Eastern Europe. I suggest they think of it as Launchpad 1.
In looking at two ways to go after Iran directly, I cast them in the light of how the US Armed Forces NOW operate, not how they did three decades ago. The first is pretty conventional and the second starts to get into the swing of things. In that one I also note that the first nuclear device they would make would NOT be targeted at Israel, Iraq or, indeed, anywhere. It is a weapon of mass destruction - get the right mass in place and you can solve a problem. The regime has such a problem in demographics. Get a substantial portion of the youthful population in a city and wipe it out and blame it on the West. Problem solved with Instant Jihad!
Thus, putting all of this together I have come up with what Peace in the Middle East should look like. This conception has been used before and it worked founding the modern Nation State in Westphalia.
How can that be done? On 9/11 President Bush was given a Golden Opportunity to define the 21st century far different than the 20th. He did not do so and flubbed it, but not in the way the Left keeps purporting he did. With the Hezbollah attacks he was then handed a SECOND Golden Opportunity to start the hard process of finally bringing about the above Peace concept. He flubbed that one, but it is still salvageable.
Teething pains of Hezbollah. As a terrorist organization they are a poor military outfit and as a military outfit they are pretty poor at terrorism. They are learning that it takes a lot of skill to do EITHER well and are stuck between paradigms.
One particularly vile meme is the idea of popular, armed political parties. Please name the legitimate ones that will not use their armaments to come to power or, once gaining power, not use them against the population. Please! I will wait.
I look at another set of memes: the Elites being anywhere near in-touch with the 'heartbeat' of the Citizen. They AREN'T as it gets their hands dirty, and so they underestimate the will of the American People.
Then there is the whole 'fauxtography' issue which I cover:
Note the Media on Images - You saw this coming for a decade, what gives?UNable to report on the UN - What he didn't say and when he didn't say it.
Creating news through willing actors and fakery - Only a panel of experts can say for sure.
Disingenuous Media Reaction - Stunned that their ethics are called in to question when they do unethical things.
Miscasting facts and not understanding the 'home turf beat' - The Washington Post does not understand Federal Contracting! Or spending cycles! Must be 'a new kid on the block', huh?
RE: Note to E & P - why did you give this bozo a platform?
Separating facts, 'news', 'stories', opinion, and analysis.... Please? Could the MSM actually start doing that?
UNIFIL UN-fulfilled - Ooooo! Look at the pretty bunker they're making!
The Big Hezbollah Banner - Premade so news could be manufactured.
Mass Protest or 'Street Theater'? - The media makes the second into the first.
Questioning the ethics of the NYT previously - And even with just one article I still DO!
The Incapable Washington Post - Purely pathetic, really.
CONFLICT IN IRAQ POSTWAR TO NOW
Putting the toxic memes of Jay Garner to rest. All the post-war plans went out the window because no one had ever imagined what had actually happened. No plans because the pre-conditions no longer existed to act on them. Got it?
Where is the Police Blotter reporting and, why, are they leaving out the actual blotter sheets?
But its such a LOOONGGGG WAR! Unlike the Philippines, mayhap?
And we have lost so many! Run for the caves in the desert away from rivers, civilization, other people... and you will be *perfectly* safe.
You see the Left has lots of little things they 'know' about Iraq, which doesn't tell you much about Iraq as they don't report on it... but it sure, as hell, tells you a lot about the Left.
Some news the media doesn't see fit to report because it is quiet and good news. More of the same.
Why we fight: Listen to the victims of Saddam. Then tell me you want to run.
There are consequences to defeat of the US and I pin the blame where it belongs for the LAST time this happened.
Lose heart THIS TIME and we may be on a path to lose it ALL.
Are you a 'defeatocrat'? The diagnostic signs to know for sure.
The strategy seen in Iraq. Simple: catalog events, see results, reflect on strategy. Oh, and don't bother looking for it in the MSM. Extra meme bashing on the post-war included, just for fun.
Would you like some 'extra generations' with this war? This Jacksonian says 'no thanks'.
The Jacksonian plan to *stabilize* Iraq. You will not like it.
Then, looking at the Mass-Warfare and Total War conceptions of the 20th century, I answer Tigerhawk on 'Arming the West'. It cannot be done with 20th century conceptions of warfare against 19th century and earlier style opponents. The modern method of warfare just does not WORK in that atmosphere.
Well, that wraps it up. All of today's memes on all the stuff that has been going on for the last few years. Summed up and spanked because they NEEDED it.