A few ideas on why there will not be an Iraqi civil war

So many people out there pointing at how there might or will be an Iraqi civil war. You can find them, you have read about the violence and the relatively calm reactions to it and judge for yourself. But in case you need one or two things to ponder, think upon these things:

1) After decades under a tyrranical leader that performed a slow slaughter of his people, and now work by outside terrorists, those seeking to foment problems in Iraq are facing a people very tired of 'rule at the barrel of a gun'. Their own religious leaders are saying the violence is wrong and evil, and the actual followers are listening. al Qaeda aided by Iran and some of the 'militias' are trying to undermine the stability that is slowly coming about in Iraq. The coalition forces offer self-rule and freedom. al Qaeda and Iran both promise an authoritarian interpretation of the Koran and the subjugation of the Iraqi people. YOU figure out where you would be in that situation. From what I have read the overwhelming majority of Iraqi people are quite level-headed and have had it with such nonsense.

2) The New Iraqi Army is integrated and will not take sides in such a conflict, save to back up the legitimate government. It is not a pawn of those in power nor can it be swayed by the hot heads on either side. They are modeling their structure, training and outlook on the only military force in the world that is extremely competent in *not* joining struggles like that. If needed they would most likely protect significant infrastructure: protect it and shoot *anyone* trying to harm it. Like the majority of the people, this Army wants no part of a civil war.

3) It seems that even those fomenting the problems have forgotten one little fact: there are THREE factions in Iraq. If a civil war breaks out, the Army will look to guidance from that faction and help *it* to restore order. And they can add their own regional military in to lend a hand. The price the Arab Sunni and Shi'ite factions would pay is that of the Kurds. If they were not amenable to a peaceful solution, my guess is the Kurds and the Army would offer safety to any province *not* willing to take part in the civil war. When offered a choice of peace and protection versus an idiotic blood feud fueled by outsiders, my guess is some of the neighboring provinces would quickly join up with the Kurds.

So why won't there be an Iraqi civil war?

Because Iran has forgotten that an independent Kurdistan, with Sunni and Shi'ite Arab minorities would start to look *awfully* nice to their own Kurds and border populations. Also the few hot-heads trying to make this blow up don't realize how very much they are becoming to be detested by the population around them. Throw in an Army willing to enforce peace without respect to religion, backed up by the Kurdish military who are much feared and also with the help of Coalition forces for supply needs, and you have a Parliamentary Republic forming up to stop the idiocy of Theocratic rule.

A civil war changes the dynamics of why the US did not support the Kurds to become and independent state. If there is a civil war, it would be suggested that the Parliament be moved north. Permanently. A re-shuffling of the deck does not help either the Sunni or Shi'ite Arabs as it leaves Iraq as a Kurdish state. And with the Army protecting the necessary infrastructure, the hot heads would be forced to move out of Iraq. And they then become limited to Syria and Iran, which is *exactly* where we want them to be: causing one of those governments to fall.

The only losers in a civil war in Iraq, beyond the dead, are: Iran, Syria, al Qaeda.

My guess is the level-headed ones will bash a few heads in the next few weeks and get this settled down while the Government finally gets its feet on the ground.

If not, I don't expect a civil war to last beyond a month or so before Iraq re-organizes under the Kurds and forces the idiots out.

Or kills them all.

Bad moves by Iran, Syria and al Qaeda. Very bad.

For them.